Heyman's Top Trade Candidate Predictions (Brewers best bets for Archer, Lowrie)

[reillymcshane]

I'm sure the Brewers will be looking at pitchers, as will every other team, it just goes with the game of baseball.

 

Second base and possibly catcher are much closer to the, "have to" category at the moment, so I agree on Lowrie, and as others have said, getting both Lowrie and Lucroy from Oakland could make a lot of sense in July, if the A's are sellers.

 

Keep an eye on Asdrubal Cabrera as well, the Mets have faded after their fast start, he's having his best season in years, and he's a FA after the season.

Good call on Asdrubal Cabrera. Teams will value his consistency - and his versatility. Although I really wouldn't want him at SS anymore. At 2B he is fine. Not great - but not bad.

[adambr2]

...and that has always been the biggest issue with acquiring Archer. The cost in minor league talent.

 

No way I want to give anything even remotely close to what we had to give up for Yelich. It's one thing if it was just signing him as a free agent, even then, I do not believe for one second he would be worth what he might cost on the open market.

 

I actually think most here over-value him far more than the rest of the league, and he might be lucky to get a Lance Lynn type contract but for more years, maybe 3.

 

But that's the thing. There were rumors, but no one really knows what Tampa was asking for Archer in spring, and what they are willing to accept for him now, if anything. At this point, I wouldn't think about dealing Peralta or Burnes for him, but if Tampa called asked for a package headlined by a guy like Ponce or Supak and some A or A+ ball pitchers, I'd listen.

 

Pre-2017 the Ray's turned down a very lucrative package from the Astros which included 3 top 100 prospects, 2 of which I believe were in the top 50.

 

If that didn't meet their asking price then its tough to imagine they'll bite the bullet now and sell him at a big discount. Much more likely they'll wait and hope he recovers value by the deadline or next offseason.

[Jose Cardenal1]

I am a little surprised that Cole Hamels is not listed as a potential trade candidate. Rangers appear to be in danger of being out of contention by late June. Hamels is pitching really well. He has playoff experience. Seems like a perfect addition for a team looking to make a playoff run. Could be this years Verlander (or poor mans version at least). Yes the $20 salary this year (and $20 option for '19) is a sizable chunk but it isn't toxic.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

...and that has always been the biggest issue with acquiring Archer. The cost in minor league talent.

 

No way I want to give anything even remotely close to what we had to give up for Yelich. It's one thing if it was just signing him as a free agent, even then, I do not believe for one second he would be worth what he might cost on the open market.

 

I actually think most here over-value him far more than the rest of the league, and he might be lucky to get a Lance Lynn type contract but for more years, maybe 3.

 

But that's the thing. There were rumors, but no one really knows what Tampa was asking for Archer in spring, and what they are willing to accept for him now, if anything. At this point, I wouldn't think about dealing Peralta or Burnes for him, but if Tampa called asked for a package headlined by a guy like Ponce or Supak and some A or A+ ball pitchers, I'd listen.

 

Pre-2017 the Ray's turned down a very lucrative package from the Astros which included 3 top 100 prospects, 2 of which I believe were in the top 50.

 

If that didn't meet their asking price then its tough to imagine they'll bite the bullet now and sell him at a big discount. Much more likely they'll wait and hope he recovers value by the deadline or next offseason.

 

If that's the case, then you just don't do it. But if he continues to decline, it may get to the point where he just demands a trade or the Rays get sick of throwing him out there. That's when you strike.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Hamels is on Heyman's list, and was one of the pitchers I want to keep an eye one as it gets closer to the trade deadline.

 

I'm also very curious how MadBaum looks as he'll be coming off the DL soon - the Dodgers stinking so far in 2018 has unfortunately kept the entire NL west within 1 hot streak of the division lead, and that Giants team seems to have been built with the mentality of trying to give it one more go at winning in 2018 before having to dismantle the pile of declining veterans laced with anchor contracts. If the Giants find a way to crater their postseason chances before late July and MadBaum looks good, man he'd be fun to have in Milwaukee through 2019 at $12M per year. Would take a king's ransom to acquire him, but one can dream.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hamels would be my target as well particularly if Nelson doesn't appear to be a factor. His $24 million vesting option isn't going to kick in but his $20 million team option for 2019 is certainly doable if he has a strong year.

 

I wouldn't be interested in Archer.

[coolhandluke121]

Absolutely no interest in Archer. Don't want any more Weeks/Hart/Marcum/Wolf/Ramirez/Gallardo/Lohse decline candidates whose peripherals support continued dramatic decline. He probably won't be better than Woodruff or Guerra, and could be worse, but they'll keep giving him the ball for months before they realize it.

 

We have one washed-up scrub on the team making more than anyone else and that's more than enough. I hate "win-now" moves that have a good chance of actually making you worse now, let alone what they do in the future.

 

If you really want a pitcher, rent a true ace for the playoffs (when aces really matter) if you're still in first place at the deadline. Stay away from Archer.

 

Lowrie might be cool but he reminds me of Gerardo Parra when he was traded to the Orioles. Ridiculous career year stuff but be wary of giving up anything of value for him because it might not continue.

[bill hAll Star]

If that's the case, then you just don't do it. But if he continues to decline, it may get to the point where he just demands a trade or the Rays get sick of throwing him out there. That's when you strike.

 

I doubt him demanding a trade will really do much, but at what point do you ever find the happy middle point?

 

Path A: Archer continues to suck. Even if the demands go lower and lower, how much of a risk do you want to take at a potential $30 million investment for the next 3 years (sure, you can decline his option, but what's the point there?) when he's a big risk to even outperform what we already have?

 

Path B: He starts to pitch well again. Demand/price goes back up to several top 100 prospect type things that blocked the Astros and Brewers from trading for him in the last calendar year anyways...and he still has the risk of going right back into the tank.

[KeithStone53151]

Hamels would be my target as well particularly if Nelson doesn't appear to be a factor. His $24 million vesting option isn't going to kick in but his $20 million team option for 2019 is certainly doable if he has a strong year.

 

I wouldn't be interested in Archer.

 

I completely agree on Hamels being a target. I've had my eye on him for this season since last year trade deadline. I knew the Rangers wouldn't trade him over the offseason, and would only consider if they fell out of contention this year...which I figured they would with the Astros and Angels around. He knows very well he's pitching for his last contract. I doubt the $20 million option gets picked up, but he could be fighting for one last 3/36 type deal if all goes well. We've also had success trading with Texas recently, which helps.

 

This deadline in general could see some serious impact talents drastically change the playoff landscape. What if the Dodgers land Machado in mid-July back 8 games? Coupled with getting Turner and Kershaw back, they could make a serious run. Donaldson could move. Maybe Dozier if the twins don't rebound and the indians start playing like they should...he'd fit with the Brewers. I don't recall a trade deadline with such high end positional talent being available, will be interesting how much teams are willing to give up for them. Premium talent, even on rentals, tends to net a premium return. Look no further than chapman.

[KeithStone53151]

If that's the case, then you just don't do it. But if he continues to decline, it may get to the point where he just demands a trade or the Rays get sick of throwing him out there. That's when you strike.

 

I doubt him demanding a trade will really do much, but at what point do you ever find the happy middle point?

 

Path A: Archer continues to suck. Even if the demands go lower and lower, how much of a risk do you want to take at a potential $30 million investment for the next 3 years (sure, you can decline his option, but what's the point there?) when he's a big risk to even outperform what we already have?

 

Path B: He starts to pitch well again. Demand/price goes back up to several top 100 prospect type things that blocked the Astros and Brewers from trading for him in the last calendar year anyways...and he still has the risk of going right back into the tank.

 

I somewhat expect the Rays to hold tight to him whether he rebounds or not, I don't think they'll simply take the best offer at the deadline. I think the Rays are a bit delusional on what they have in Archer. I also wouldn't call several top 100 prospects the demand for him. The asking price, sure...I think we've seen that isn't what a team is willing to pay though.

[bill hAll Star]

I somewhat expect the Rays to hold tight to him whether he rebounds or not, I don't think they'll simply take the best offer at the deadline. I think the Rays are a bit delusional on what they have in Archer. I also wouldn't call several top 100 prospects the demand for him. The asking price, sure...I think we've seen that isn't what a team is willing to pay though.

 

Right, somebody mentioned "3 top 100 prospects" as the asking price to the Astros last year.

 

And I agree that the Rays will be stingy with him. That was my initial point of contention with Meyer Bombs. They don't really need to get rid of him until they get good value. Not much of a point in giving him away unless the owners really want to put more money in their pockets.

[TURBO]

All Archer would do at this point is block one of our younger guys from filling in or making this rotation.

 

I want no part of him, period.

[adambr2]

https://www.draysbay.com/2017/1/5/14177084/mlb-trade-rumors-rays-chris-archer-houston-astros

 

Here was that rejected trade I was referring to.

 

Ray's turned down Martes (#29), Tucker (#50), and Paulino (#70), plus two other prospects. (All rankings at the time of the offer).

 

Good luck getting a better offer than that, Tampa.

[wallus]

 

I want no part of him, period.

 

[KeithStone53151]

 

I want no part of him, period.

 

 

Hahahaha well done sir!

[trwi7]

 

I want no part of him, period.

 

 

Wait, why isn't Brent Musburger the guy in this meme? He's the one who said that.

[wallus]

 

I want no part of him, period.

 

 

Wait, why isn't Brent Musburger the guy in this meme? He's the one who said that.

 

Everything I could find didn't just have that quote so I did the best I could.

[clancyphile]

All Archer would do at this point is block one of our younger guys from filling in or making this rotation.

 

I want no part of him, period.

 

Concur.

 

I'd rather try to get Greinke for a song and cover his ENTIRE salary than to get Archer.

[adambr2]

All Archer would do at this point is block one of our younger guys from filling in or making this rotation.

 

I want no part of him, period.

 

Concur.

 

I'd rather try to get Greinke for a song and cover his ENTIRE salary than to get Archer.

 

Goodness, please no.

[pacopete4]

Greinke is owed roughly $115 million over the next 3.75 years for his services (age 34-37). It is hard to not want a guy that will give you 200 innings of work with a mid 3 ERA and a low WHIP but it is also hard to toss that money at a guy in his age. He has been so consistent his entire career so it is really hard not to be intrigued.

[SoCalBrewfan]

In this scenario, the division-leading Diamondbacks are dealing a key member of their rotation for a song...to what end exactly? Someone in the front office is a Dodgers fan?

[pacopete4]

Yeah, I don't think anyone really thought this was realistic at this point. But there is a lot of time before July 31st and the Diamondbacks are reeling and lost some key players.

[bill hAll Star]

The Diamondbacks were trying to unload him before the season started. I think it'll take a bit of a drop in the standings now so that it isn't terrible PR, but I think they do it. They've gotten the good part of the contract and want to deal him before it becomes the bad part.

[SoCalBrewfan]

Yep, that contract is one that seems very likely to end badly, but in the here and now, with the standings as they are and the Dodgers wounded, there's an opportunity to win the NL West that might not have seemed so available in the offseason. The NL looks strong and the path through the wild card is treacherous; the odds of both wild cards from from the West don't seem good. Thus with other missing pieces in the Arizona rotation, trading Grienke seems unlikely until and unless the rest of the wheels come off the wagon. That is particularly true given that the contract is so crazy...how many teams have the right combination of payroll space, trade return, and rotation needs to do that deal midseason? Situations change, of course, and it could be that Arizona is looking to deal vets in another six weeks, but right now that's the last thing on their minds.

[bill hAll Star]

As much as Arizona would want to get rid of that thing, they probably are becoming more and more "win-now" and just let Greinke's contract rot in its final year or two.

 

Factor in that Walker is probably useless for 2019 or cannot be counted on, and it seems like all-in this year with the Dodgers struggling, somewhat in in 2019, and 2020 is probably in flux and they start trading off anything left if it doesn't look good prior to or early in the season.

 

Players' contracts up after this year:

Pollock

Corbin

JDLR

Descalso

 

Players' contracts up after 2019:

Goldschmidt

Avila

Owings

Boxberger

Yasmany Tomas' dead contract they are paying for

 

Players' contracts up after 2020:

Ray

Walker

Lamb

Souza

Peralta

 

I just don't know if you bring back Goldschmdit, Pollock, Corbin, anyone in the 2018/2019 list given that everyone else is in expensive arbitration at that point that you can go anywhere given that I don't think they have a loaded farm system.

 

So now they're left with keeping Greinke and praying the next 2 years and just letting him take the ball every 5th day and put up a 4.80 ERA in the twilight of his career on a 75 and then 70 win team while the rest of their payroll is nothingness.