Heyman's Top Trade Candidate Predictions (Brewers best bets for Archer, Lowrie)

[brewerfan82]

Nice overview of potential trade candidates by Jon Heyman:

 

3. Chris Archer, Rays SP. The Brewers are the best team that’s short of pitching. Dan O’Dowd of MLB Network tabbed the Brewers as the most logical team for Archer months ago, and I think he was on to something. It doesn’t hurt that Brewers owner Mark Attanasio and Rays owner Stu Sternberg are close. Best bet: Brewers. Others: Diamondbacks, Phillies, Mariners, Angels, Giants, Rockies, Mets.

13. Jed Lowrie, A’s INF. He can play anywhere on the infield. So he could help a number of teams. The A’s are hanging in the race, so they could also wind up keeping their veterans – or even adding guys. Best bet: Brewers. Others: Diamondbacks, Indians, Dodgers, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Astros, Yankees.

https://frsbaseball.com/mlb/inside/inside-baseball-where-will-the-top-trade-candidates-end-up/

 

In addition to the the Brewers being the best bets for Archer and Lowrie, he has them as possibilities for Realmuto, Duffy, Lucroy, and Ramos.

[TURBO]

I dread the thoughts of anymore Archer discussions. We already dodged that bullet once...

[jerichoholicninja]

Has Heyman paid any attention to the Brewers over the last calendar year? Sure, a really good starter would be great. No team would say no to that but it's pretty obvious the offense is what's holding the team back.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Considering how poorly Archer is pitching so far, and how effective the Brewers' staff has been, the price on him continues to decrease. His stuff is still plenty good, though. I'd gladly take him and his affordable contract with several years of control, and hope that Derek Johnson and the fact that he would be pitching for a contender would help him turn things around. Sabathia was underperforming when the Brewers traded for him way back when as well. Granted Archer is not Sabathia, but there are similarities in the situations.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I dread the thoughts of anymore Archer discussions. We already dodged that bullet once...

 

Well yeah, because pitchers never turn things around post trade.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Brewers are short of starting pitching right now with Anderson, Davies and Miley on the shelf, but geesh, add those 3 plus Nelson to go with Chacin, Guerra, Suter and Peralta, I don't see starting pitching as the weakness that it's made out to be.

[Roderick]

The best chance the Brewers would have pulled the trigger on starting pitching was before the season started as we had an opening early before Nelson came back and the young pitchers got more experience.

 

Now, you have:

 

Guerra seems to have a hold of a spot.

Peralta/Woodruff/Suter as rotation starters until Anderson and Davies are healthy

Burnes, Derby, and Asher appear to be ready when needed.

Nelson and Miley recovering.

I'm sure 1-2 guys not named would be ready by September 1 if needed (Brown, Jankins, Houser, Ortiz, Wilkerson, etc).

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The best chance the Brewers would have pulled the trigger on starting pitching was before the season started as we had an opening early before Nelson came back and the young pitchers got more experience.

 

Now, you have:

 

Guerra seems to have a hold of a spot.

Peralta/Woodruff/Suter as rotation starters until Anderson and Davies are healthy

Burnes, Derby, and Asher appear to be ready when needed.

Nelson and Miley recovering.

I'm sure 1-2 guys not named would be ready by September 1 if needed (Brown, Jankins, Houser, Ortiz, Wilkerson, etc).

 

Quality depth is great to have. Archer would create more of it.

[splitterpfj]

I'm sure the Brewers will be looking at pitchers, as will every other team, it just goes with the game of baseball.

 

Second base and possibly catcher are much closer to the, "have to" category at the moment, so I agree on Lowrie, and as others have said, getting both Lowrie and Lucroy from Oakland could make a lot of sense in July, if the A's are sellers.

 

Keep an eye on Asdrubal Cabrera as well, the Mets have faded after their fast start, he's having his best season in years, and he's a FA after the season.

[StearnsFTW]

I dread the thoughts of anymore Archer discussions. We already dodged that bullet once...

 

If we traded Archer for Dubon I think your head might explode.

 

I don't see any real need for Archer, but I sure wouldn't mind having him at the right price.

 

Lowrie makes a ton of sense on a lot of levels.

 

Don't see any real need for a catcher of that quality. Decent back up that bats lefthanded would be nice though.

[TURBO]

The best chance the Brewers would have pulled the trigger on starting pitching was before the season started as we had an opening early before Nelson came back and the young pitchers got more experience.

 

Now, you have:

 

Guerra seems to have a hold of a spot.

Peralta/Woodruff/Suter as rotation starters until Anderson and Davies are healthy

Burnes, Derby, and Asher appear to be ready when needed.

Nelson and Miley recovering.

I'm sure 1-2 guys not named would be ready by September 1 if needed (Brown, Jankins, Houser, Ortiz, Wilkerson, etc).

 

Quality depth is great to have. Archer would create more of it.

 

Depth yes, quality depth, ummm no.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

The best chance the Brewers would have pulled the trigger on starting pitching was before the season started as we had an opening early before Nelson came back and the young pitchers got more experience.

 

Now, you have:

 

Guerra seems to have a hold of a spot.

Peralta/Woodruff/Suter as rotation starters until Anderson and Davies are healthy

Burnes, Derby, and Asher appear to be ready when needed.

Nelson and Miley recovering.

I'm sure 1-2 guys not named would be ready by September 1 if needed (Brown, Jankins, Houser, Ortiz, Wilkerson, etc).

 

Quality depth is great to have. Archer would create more of it.

 

Depth yes, quality depth, ummm no.

 

Why is it that you totally dismiss the idea that a change of scenery for Archer might help turn him around? You seem to totally dismiss him as junk, but his career numbers indicate otherwise.

 

I'm sorry if that seems snarky, but the constant Hot Takes on this board get to be a little much at times.

[bill hAll Star]

Why is it that you totally dismiss the idea that a change of scenery for Archer might help turn him around? You seem to totally dismiss him as junk, but his career numbers indicate otherwise.

 

I'm sorry if that seems snarky, but the constant Hot Takes on this board get to be a little much at times.

 

I don't think Archer stinks at this point for eternity and I see the potential for him to return to being good, but the cost to trade for him had better be pretty small or I'm not doing it.

 

Career numbers are generally are what I use for guys to tone down some overreaction, but for pitchers like Archer, he may never be able to return from a downward trend.

[chuckiehacks]

 

I'm sorry if that seems snarky, but the constant Hot Takes on this board get to be a little much at times.

 

There will always be people here that are against trading any of #TehProspectz, especially ones they've seen in person in the minors.

 

But back to Heyman, he always seems to mention the Brewers. I think his wife is from Milwaukee, so he probably follows the Brewers slightly more than most of the the other lazy sportswriters (looking in Jim Bowden's general direction).

[TooLiveBrew]

 

I'm sorry if that seems snarky, but the constant Hot Takes on this board get to be a little much at times.

 

There will always be people here that are against trading any of #TehProspectz, especially ones they've seen in person in the minors.

Just because someone is against trading for Archer doesn't mean they're against trading any young talent away.

 

I can't think of a time where I saw posters here stating they're never in favor of trading prospects. Disagreeing on the value of said prospect vs MLB players? Sure, def. happens frequently.

 

A performance like Peralta's is a good example though -- he might wind up being a flash in the pan, & never make it in the bigs. But yesterday was a great glimpse of why sometimes folks are hesitant to part with young talent. If we're moving them on, I want to make sure it's for the right value.

 

It goes without saying that a small market franchise needs to be very careful in how they utilize their player capital. Whether it's in performance at the MLB level, or in trade value, young players are arguably our best source of capital. So I'd hope the club is very discerning in how they spend it.

 

Not saying you don't share any of the above thoughts. It just irks me when the notion is floated that there's a subset of fans that never want to trade propsects, & have no logical reasoning behind how highly they value them.

[TURBO]

 

Why is it that you totally dismiss the idea that a change of scenery for Archer might help turn him around? You seem to totally dismiss him as junk, but his career numbers indicate otherwise.

 

I'm sorry if that seems snarky, but the constant Hot Takes on this board get to be a little much at times.

 

Says the guy with a lot of hot takes himself.

 

Why is it that you think a change of scenery will make him any better?

 

His career numbers are heavy on strike-outs, but nothing else.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Why is it that you totally dismiss the idea that a change of scenery for Archer might help turn him around? You seem to totally dismiss him as junk, but his career numbers indicate otherwise.

 

I'm sorry if that seems snarky, but the constant Hot Takes on this board get to be a little much at times.

 

Says the guy with a lot of hot takes himself.

 

Why is it that you think a change of scenery will make him any better?

 

His career numbers are heavy on strike-outs, but nothing else.

 

I don't know that it will ... but I'll gladly take a chance on a proven workhorse with a successful past career, who is still relatively young and signed to an affordable deal with multiple years of control left. At the contract he's on, even if you need to throw him in the bullpen, it isn't going to kill you. Who knows what the Rays are asking via trade, but I can guarantee you that ask hasn't gone up in the last month.

 

Also, all I was asking for was a little reasoning behind your opinion.

[sveumrules]

One reason a change of scenery could make Archer better would be that he no longer has to face designated hitters or stacked AL East lineups. (Career ERA of 5.49 in 105 IP against Boston & 5.10 in 107 IP against Baltimore).

 

One reason a change of scenery might not make any difference at all is that Miller Park is much more favorable to hitters than is Tropicana Field. (Career ERA of 3.28 in 510 IP at the Trop for Archer).

 

At this point I would rather put any prospect capital toward short term fixes at 2B or C & ride with the pitching in the organization. The only player I'd probably be ok with making an aggressive move for at the deadline would be Realmuto just because C is so thin throughout MLB. Would rather not pay the likely prospect price required to get Archer just because of the uncertainty surrounding the discrepancies between his actual results & underlying components that have persisted for the last 3+ seasons/600+ IP.

[pacopete4]

Honestly, unless there is an injury (other than Nelson's), I think I am good to give this mixture of no namers and young guys a chance this year. If that leads us to the postseason, great. If it doesn't it will only help us understand what they are. I just don't see how an Archer pushes this team to a different level than they are currently at. I'd rather see Burnes and Peralta be the additions.

[bill hAll Star]

 

Why is it that you totally dismiss the idea that a change of scenery for Archer might help turn him around? You seem to totally dismiss him as junk, but his career numbers indicate otherwise.

 

I'm sorry if that seems snarky, but the constant Hot Takes on this board get to be a little much at times.

 

Says the guy with a lot of hot takes himself.

 

Why is it that you think a change of scenery will make him any better?

 

His career numbers are heavy on strike-outs, but nothing else.

 

I don't know that it will ... but I'll gladly take a chance on a proven workhorse with a successful past career, who is still relatively young and signed to an affordable deal with multiple years of control left. At the contract he's on, even if you need to throw him in the bullpen, it isn't going to kill you. Who knows what the Rays are asking via trade, but I can guarantee you that ask hasn't gone up in the last month.

 

Also, all I was asking for was a little reasoning behind your opinion.

 

I don't know how badly the Brewers need a "workhorse" anymore, though. Take a look at what they're doing with Chacin.

 

Now, obviously, even if things are trending that way, I'm not sure you can get by with 5 Chacins and a bullpen that is expected to go 4 or 5 innings every single night.

 

The Rays were asking for a ton before the season and that's why it never happened.

 

If the price goes way down, sure, maybe. After this year, he's effectively on a 3 year, $30 million deal with options to end it every year now. This year would only be a $3-4 million hit when we trade for him, which I doubt is much of an issue.

 

This year was "wait and see" with a bit of optimism towards competing now. The first quarter of the year is suggesting that we are going to likely be in the mix. That said, I'm not going to give up high prospects for a guy that I'm not sure is a mid/high rotation piece anymore just to see if we can turn it around for him...and the Rays probably won't be selling low. They can afford to wait even into next season if he's not pitching well right now.

 

Finally, Archer throws a hard fastball and a hard slider. The velocity is dipping just a little bit this year but haven't dropped off...but those are the 2 pitches that do not last with all guys into their 30s. Tommy John risk goes up and if he's only throwing 92 instead of 95 or his slider has to be used less, he's probably a guy that won't be able to stick in the majors anymore. He's not a pitcher with a wide array of plus pitches to reform what he does to stay effective into his 30s.

[paul253]

Depth yes, quality depth, ummm no.

 

I’d rather take my chances with Archer then continuing to throw Brent Suter out there.

 

Archer isn’t an “ace”, but he likely makes the team better. His bad nine start beginning to the season doesn’t all of a sudden make him a bad pitcher. He’d clearly be a top five starting pitcher on this team. And I think going to a contender from a team that’s already out of it 38 games into the season might help him refocus a bit. I’d take him in a heartbeat but the price would have to be right.

[TURBO]

...and that has always been the biggest issue with acquiring Archer. The cost in minor league talent.

 

No way I want to give anything even remotely close to what we had to give up for Yelich. It's one thing if it was just signing him as a free agent, even then, I do not believe for one second he would be worth what he might cost on the open market.

 

I actually think most here over-value him far more than the rest of the league, and he might be lucky to get a Lance Lynn type contract but for more years, maybe 3.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

...and that has always been the biggest issue with acquiring Archer. The cost in minor league talent.

 

No way I want to give anything even remotely close to what we had to give up for Yelich. It's one thing if it was just signing him as a free agent, even then, I do not believe for one second he would be worth what he might cost on the open market.

 

I actually think most here over-value him far more than the rest of the league, and he might be lucky to get a Lance Lynn type contract but for more years, maybe 3.

 

But that's the thing. There were rumors, but no one really knows what Tampa was asking for Archer in spring, and what they are willing to accept for him now, if anything. At this point, I wouldn't think about dealing Peralta or Burnes for him, but if Tampa called asked for a package headlined by a guy like Ponce or Supak and some A or A+ ball pitchers, I'd listen.

[LouisEly]

Second base and possibly catcher are much closer to the, "have to" category at the moment, so I agree on Lowrie, and as others have said, getting both Lowrie and Lucroy from Oakland could make a lot of sense in July, if the A's are sellers.

 

Keep an eye on Asdrubal Cabrera as well, the Mets have faded after their fast start, he's having his best season in years, and he's a FA after the season.

Hell, I'd pay a premium for Lowre and Lucroy right now. While the A's are hanging close to .500, they are 8th in the AL and fourth in their own division. One of the Yankees/Red Sox will grab one wild card, then they have to leapfrog the Angels, Mariners, and Blue Jays for the other one.

[pacopete4]

Grabbing both Lowrie and Lucroy would be huge for this lineup and for the depth of this team.

 

 

Cain- CF

Lowrie- 2B

Yelich- LF

Braun- 1B / Aguilar

Shaw- 3B

Santana- RF

Lucroy/Pina- C

Arcia- SS

 

Bench: Pina/Lucroy, Aguilar, Perez, Saladino/Villar