2B: Villar/Sogard/Perez

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

So rumor has it Nate Orf is in Milwaukee today. Sogard DFA'd? Villar or Sogard to the DL maybe?

 

I just looked ... can't find anything other than one parody Twitter account saying this.

 

Check out the Knebel thread. He's with Knebel in Milwaukee (or so the picture seems).

 

That's Dan Jennings

[adambr2]

Thanks Dan Jennings, you managed to take a photo of Knebel returning and make it utterly disappointing.

[3and2Fastball]

LOL oh well... Hopefully Villar gets most of the starts until Orf gets called up (!)

[bill hAll Star]

 

I just looked ... can't find anything other than one parody Twitter account saying this.

 

Check out the Knebel thread. He's with Knebel in Milwaukee (or so the picture seems).

 

That's Dan Jennings

 

Yeah, I noticed that not 30 seconds after the post but you beat me to it. Trap set and you caught one in it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

Yeah, I noticed that not 30 seconds after the post but you beat me to it. Trap set and you caught one in it.

 

I was hoping it was Orf as well.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

Yeah, I noticed that not 30 seconds after the post but you beat me to it. Trap set and you caught one in it.

 

I was hoping it was Orf as well.

 

Are you sure it's Jennings? Sorta looks like Broxton.

[Warning Track Power]

Nick Franklin coming up! Woah Solvdd

 

[PinaMadness]

Sogard optioned to AAA. Woot Woot!!!

 

Maybe he'll hit .150 in CS in that altitude.

 

Also the contract of Nick Franklin has been selected from AA and Vogt has been placed on the 60 day DL.

[trwi7]

Dubon tore his ACL and is out for the rest of the season so those who wanted him up will have to wait.

[Warning Track Power]

Maybe the Yankees will trade the Brewers Neil Walker if they fill their soda machines for the rest of the season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Nate Orf with a 3-4 night to boost his average to .381. I know its Colorado Springs, but a .381 average cannot be all smoke and mirrors. With Franklin getting hurt, it's time to give Orf his shot.

[rickh150]

WAR doesn't factor in the amount of times thrown out on the bases (SB or unforced), does it?

 

According to a quick google search, it does.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

Baserunning runs are included in the formula..... not special negative values for outs on the bases that kill rallies, end innings, etc.... I guess it's indirectly used. If the guy isn't on base, he can't be batted in for a run.

[rickh150]

That last post got me.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/

 

Still can't find where WAR includes unforced outs on the bases or CS.

Enlighten me.

[rickh150]

Just saw a WAR formula that used CS, not unforced outs on bases, however.

I noticed that there are several ways to calculate WAR (not meaning all the variations like fWAR, rWAR, or WARP). Is there a common/usual way that MLB calculates it?

[coolhandluke121]

Dubon tore his ACL and is out for the rest of the season so those who wanted him up will have to wait.

 

Call him up anyway he can't be worse than Sogard.

[Baldkin]

Just saw a WAR formula that used CS, not unforced outs on bases, however.

I noticed that there are several ways to calculate WAR (not meaning all the variations like fWAR, rWAR, or WARP). Is there a common/usual way that MLB calculates it?

 

Every calculation of WAR accounts for unforced outs on the bases. They use the 24 base out states and calculate the average runs a player is worth in that situation and use that to deduct it from the base running calculation.

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wsb/

 

wSB = (SB * runSB) + (CS * runCS) – (lgwSB * (1B + BB + HBP – IBB))

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ubr/

 

1) On a hit, advancing an extra base, not advancing an extra base, or getting thrown out trying to advance an extra base, as long as no other base runner is blocking an advance.

 

2) A batter getting thrown out trying to advance an extra base on a hit (if he successfully does, we don’t know it, as he is simply awarded a double, for example, on a usual single where he advances an extra base).

 

3) On a hit, the batter advancing, not advancing, or getting thrown out when a runner is safe or out advancing an extra base.

 

4) Trailing runners advancing, not advancing or getting thrown out when a leading runner is safe or out trying to advance an extra base on a hit or an out. This is basically lumped together with #1 above.

 

5) Runners trying to advance on fly ball outs – i.e. tagging up.

 

6) As mentioned above, on ground balls to the infield, runners on first staying out of the force or DP at second base, whether the batter is out or is safe on a FC.

 

7) Also as mentioned above, a runner on second advancing or not (or getting thrown out) on a ground ball hit to SS or 3B.

[tmwiese55]

Villar is 299/341 vs righties this year. Sure he hasn't looked great even with those results, but I don't know why they're overthinking this so much. Just play him every time vs righties and see how it goes the next few weeks. Throw in Perez vs most lefties. Seems pretty simple to me.

[adambr2]

Villar is 299/341 vs righties this year. Sure he hasn't looked great even with those results, but I don't know why they're overthinking this so much. Just play him every time vs righties and see how it goes the next few weeks. Throw in Perez vs most lefties. Seems pretty simple to me.

 

Orf should be called up last week, and with the way Villar has done vs RHP a Villar/Orf platoon at 2B makes all the sense in the world, at least for the time being, plus Orf can start once a week or so at SS.

 

Instead they continue to recycle through the suck and wonder why guys with career .600 OPS marks can’t just “get going.” If Orf comes up and you give him the same 70 PAs you gave to Sogard and he’s hitting the same .100, so be it. At least you’ll know what you’ve got. Just plugging in the next journeyman with a career .280 OBP isn’t going to solve your offensive problems.

 

And on that note, I rarely am this vocal about criticizing this FO but enough with this “versatility” crap. It was a great theory to a point and now you’ve overdone it. Not every single player you call up needs to be able to play every position on the diamond. Being versatile or being Left handed does not compensate for being bad. The only guy they have been willing to make an exception for is Aguilar and he’s about the only one who has worked out well.

 

I think it’s very clear from our offensive production the last few years that offensive production has been sacrificed for defensive versatility.

[Warning Track Power]

I think it’s very clear from our offensive production the last few years that offensive production has been sacrificed for defensive versatility.

This is an overlooked and excellent point about the current roster. Well done Adam.

[owbc]

I think it’s very clear from our offensive production the last few years that offensive production has been sacrificed for defensive versatility.

This is an overlooked and excellent point about the current roster. Well done Adam.

 

I don't disagree, but I would argue that the defensive versatility is more valuable than any incremental gains in offensive production. There are only about a dozen players per position in the league that have a decent bat at C/2B/SS. So it is a reasonable strategy to try to get added value somewhere else (defense, versatility, etc.) since there isn't much offensive upside unless you spend significant cash for one of those dozen really good bats.

[coolhandluke121]

http://http://www.miamiherald.com/latest-news/z7kusi/picture145078159/ALTERNATES/FREE_640/braun.JPG

[coolhandluke121]

He's basically been a middle infield bat most of the year anyway.

[bill hAll Star]

Instead they continue to recycle through the suck and wonder why guys with career .600 OPS marks can’t just “get going.” If Orf comes up and you give him the same 70 PAs you gave to Sogard and he’s hitting the same .100, so be it. At least you’ll know what you’ve got. Just plugging in the next journeyman with a career .280 OBP isn’t going to solve your offensive problems.

 

Professional front office people and scouts have been wrong before. Let's get that out of the way. It happens.

 

That said, Orf has been passed on in 2 rule 5 drafts now and the Brewers have passed on calling him up several times in the past 2 years.

 

Tyler Saladino, at 21 years old, put up an .864 OPS in A+ ball with 16 homers in 102 games. Saladino played mostly in the majors after age 24.

 

Nick Franklin hit 23 homers between A and AA at age 19. Franklin put up a .771 OPS in the majors as recently as 2016.

 

Eric Sogard put up a similar season to Saladino's at age 22 in A+ ball. Eric Sogard has a .384 OBP collectively in the minors and most of that happened before age 24 because he was in the majors at age 24.

 

Nate Orf was in college at age 22. Nothing against him for that, but at age 24, when Saladino, Franklin, and Sogard were all playing Major League Baseball, Nate Orf was in A+ ball putting up 2 homers and a .773 OPS.

 

All 4 of these players save for Franklin have been given the opportunity to face scrub pitchers at the AAA level in Colorado Springs for an extended period of time, and all of them have put up video game numbers when given that opportunity.

 

Now, I understand that certain players blossom at certain times. Nate Orf is likely a bit of a late-bloomer in some regards.

 

Orf does not possess power as a scrappy/professional hitter to translate to the majors most likely. He's been passed up in the rule 5 draft twice.

 

What I'm trying to explain is that while I really don't mind giving Orf a chance, he's the backup quarterback that everyone loves. He is a hall of fame player simply because he has not been given a chance to prove that he also stinks on the field. The possibilities are limitless when your mind can imagine only success with no failure to disprove/disagree with it.

[tmwiese55]

Some of it is just simply that you know what you have in the retread types, whereas Orf you don't. So, yea chances are it's more of hte same but at least the small % that he's Scott Podsednik. And if not, you're in the same spot. Kind of like what do you have to lose?

 

Yea, good post Adam

[bill hAll Star]

Some of it is just simply that you know what you have in the retread types, whereas Orf you don't. So, yea chances are it's more of hte same but at least the small % that he's Scott Podsednik. And if not, you're in the same spot. Kind of like what do you have to lose?

 

Yea, good post Adam

 

What do you have to lose? Maybe Nick Franklin would have regained 2016 form and put up a .771 OPS [yes, that was a small sample and some luck] while you tried to "see what you have" with Orf and he bats .220/.290./.320 over 35 games.

 

It goes both ways. I'm not saying I'd be angry if they gave Orf a shot, it's just generally more likely that somebody that you (and you trust your judgment) believe has a better chance to succeed actually succeeds.