2B: Villar/Sogard/Perez

[rickh150]

I have never been a Villar fan.... even in 2016 when his numbers were impressive. The mental errors and shaky defense were just too much for me to give him a free pass.

 

So seeing him currently sit the bench frequently, ala September 2017 when CC ultimately went with Walker and Sogard, begs to question if his days are numbered. I'm sure others want Sogard, or even Perez, to be first to be shipped out, but I see CC valuing Sogard more because of contact ABs, walk ability, and solid D opposed to Villar's K's and errors. Perez's versatility keeps him around longer, as well.

 

With Dubon hitting well in AAA and other veteran FA 2B yet signed, I don't know why Villar is still here, especially when CC seems to not believe in him. Even if one argues that Villar could be a quality bench player, I don't see it.

[rickh150]

https://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/brewers-jonathan-villar-out-for-third-straight-game/

[owbc]

Note: title of thread has been changed to try and facilitate rational discussion.

[adambr2]

Yes, he'll make June. Sogard will be off this team long before Villar. You keep citing "contact ABs for Sogard but he's striking out in 25% of his PAs and his glove is nothing special.

 

I'm not a huge Villar guy but the fact that he didn't start for 3 days does not necessarily mean CC doesn't believe in him. He's demonstrated at times in the past that he definitely does.

 

Our 2B situation isn't good, but throwing away your best existing option isn't the way to start fixing it. Villar could lose reps internally to Dubon or Orf, or a 2B acquired in trade, but he'll stick til the end of the season and then probably be non-tendered if he doesn't turn it around. Sogard is in extreme immediate danger of losing his roster spot, much moreso than Villar.

[timpep]

Sadly with Dubon hurt now I'm not sure we'll see a change. If Villar leaves the team and Sogard stays I might lose my mind though.

 

I do agree that CC values Sogard more though.

[NYChez]

Amazingly, there are 9 MLB teams with worse 2nd base OPS than the Brewers, including several very good teams. There may be competition for outside help. The Brewers are last in SS OPS but 2nd in 1B OPS.

[Baldkin]

Amazingly, there are 9 MLB teams with worse 2nd base OPS than the Brewers, including several very good teams. There may be competition for outside help. The Brewers are last in SS OPS but 2nd in 1B OPS.

 

Why the Brewers are dead last at SS:

2018:

Sogard as 2B (24 PA): .200/.304/.300 for a .604 OPS

Sogard as SS (36 PA): .000/.111/.000 for a .111 OPS

[homer]

I am probably the most forgiving person on this board when it comes to DFAing people but Sogard has to go.

[FVBrewerFan]

At the very least, Sogard should never start. If he gets to PH once in a while, fine, until Thames is back. Because when Thames is back, they will need to shed a position player one way or another. If you want Orf to come up in the meantime, I'm fine with that, but I don't see him as an answer. Sogard is almost just as likely to get hot for a couple weeks.

 

Let Villar play every day. If he doesn't improve by the time Dubon is healthy you can look at making that move.

[brwrsfan]

Agree, FVB. That's my biggest issue with Sogard. If he was the last guy on the roster, PH sometimes and maybe the rare spot start if Arcia needs a day off, fine. But he continues to start on a consistent basis for no apparent reason. I wasn't a fan of his last season, wasn't at all a fan of him being resigned and IMO, should be DFA immediately.

 

If they really dislike Villar that much, then bring up Orf (or Dubon when healthy again), but regardless, whoever it is can't possibly do any WORSE than Sogard.

[SeaBass]

Sogard has to go. I don't think he's as bad as he's going right now but he's not much better either. Hasn't had a hit since April 17th, and all that "contact hitter" stuff? Well he's grounded into 3 double plays in his last 5 starts. I don't want that kind of contact.

 

Please, for the love of all that's good and holy, DFA Sogard, stat. Literally no other team will claim him. Offer him a chance to right his ways in the minors if CC loves the guy so much, but I'll be perfectly happy to never see him in a Brewers uniform ever again.

[Brewersfanatic2882]

Nate Orf not in lineup today. Could mean nothing, but all the guy has done is hit in the minors. Hopefully he comes up for sogard.

[adambr2]

You wonder why they even take so long to make a move that they know perfectly well IS going to happen eventually which would let them start getting a look at the next guy, in this case Orf.

 

We all knew Oliver Drake would be DFA eventually. We all know Eric Sogard and Jett Bandy will be DFA, eventually. It's not a matter of if but when.

[bill hAll Star]

Nate Orf not in lineup today. Could mean nothing, but all the guy has done is hit in Colorado Springs. Hopefully he comes up for sogard.

 

Just want to make this clear that if Eric Sogard stayed down in the minors until age 28 and was allowed to hit at Colorado Springs, I would absolutely guarantee he'd put up a .320/.400/.480 type line playing in Colorado Springs/PCL just as Orf has.

 

I'm glad that this is the end of Sogard, and Orf could be a modest improvement...but I really hope people temper their expectations of the older prospect with no power hitting in BABIP utopia of Colorado Springs.

[homer]

Nate Orf not in lineup today. Could mean nothing, but all the guy has done is hit in Colorado Springs. Hopefully he comes up for sogard.

 

Just want to make this clear that if Eric Sogard stayed down in the minors until age 28 and was allowed to hit at Colorado Springs, I would absolutely guarantee he'd put up a .320/.400/.480 type line playing in Colorado Springs/PCL just as Orf has.

 

I'm glad that this is the end of Sogard, and Orf could be a modest improvement...but I really hope people temper their expectations of the older prospect with no power hitting in BABIP utopia of Colorado Springs.

 

Orf's road numbers are really good. He doesn't just hit at CS.

[xisxisxis]

You wonder why they even take so long to make a move that they know perfectly well IS going to happen eventually which would let them start getting a look at the next guy, in this case Orf.

 

We all knew Oliver Drake would be DFA eventually. We all know Eric Sogard and Jett Bandy will be DFA, eventually. It's not a matter of if but when.

 

I'm not sure they "know". Sure there are plenty of examples where fans are just not as informed as management about issues so our armchair approach is not informed. However, we saw last year with Drake and now, this year in part with Drake, but mostly with Sogard that management is erring on the side of being TOO conservative with their decision. I don't want a knee-jerk GM either. In fact you don't want a GM whose on the extremes of making personnel decisions, but that's what we have, a GM who is way too slow to pull the plug. Last year we missed the playoffs by one game, this year we could very well run short again, especially with the current offense. Would the Brewers have been one game better last year if they cut Drake loose in 2017? What's going to happen this year? Are we going to go months with super-sub-par performance at 3 positions before any changes are made? And what if that delay costs us another postseason trip?

 

At some point getting the big picture right, but failing at the details isn't enough...

[bill hAll Star]

Nate Orf not in lineup today. Could mean nothing, but all the guy has done is hit in Colorado Springs. Hopefully he comes up for sogard.

 

Just want to make this clear that if Eric Sogard stayed down in the minors until age 28 and was allowed to hit at Colorado Springs, I would absolutely guarantee he'd put up a .320/.400/.480 type line playing in Colorado Springs/PCL just as Orf has.

 

I'm glad that this is the end of Sogard, and Orf could be a modest improvement...but I really hope people temper their expectations of the older prospect with no power hitting in BABIP utopia of Colorado Springs.

 

Orf's road numbers are really good. He doesn't just hit at CS.

 

They're not nearly as good as CS on the whole.

 

The PCL is a hitter's league.

 

The reason that Rockies' players don't have as much (but still substantial) inflation of surface numbers is because they play @SF, @LAD, @SD on the road a lot against generally good pitchers.

 

Orf gets to hit in Colorado Springs and then goes to mostly other high elevation/bandbox parks and faces journeyman pitching, not Clayton Kershaw.

 

I'm sure there may be a handful that people can find in the majors, but how many 5'9" 180 players in the majors with no power and are not Dee Gordon in the speed category hold an average over .260 or an OBP much above .310 or .320?

 

Scooter is one of the few guys that actually has stuck around with the bat, but it is mostly due to having relatively good power in his bat. Orf probably will have to deal with the outfielders standing halfway in just as Sogard does, and no matter how good your bat control is, you can only find so many green patches against MLB pitching and defense with those constraints.

 

Orf's splits:

 

2017

Home: .353/.419/.577/.996

Away: .288/.375/.438/.813

 

2018

Home: .407/.477/.574/1.051

Away: .319/.396/.362/.758

 

His BABIP in these 2 seasons (overall) is .362 in 2017 and .446 in 2018. Obviously that 2018 one will go down regardless, but either way, those BABIPs occur absolutely nowhere other than Coors Field and Colorado Springs/PCL.

 

To go back to "Orf's road numbers are really good" - Would we be overly excited about a guy that hits .300/.370/.400 that was 28 in AAA in a neutral/slightly hitter-leaning park? That's Eric Sogard territory, but Sogard has not had an extremely long stay in the minors since his early/mid 20s.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

They're not nearly as good as CS on the whole.

 

The PCL is a hitter's league.

 

The reason that Rockies' players don't have as much (but still substantial) inflation of surface numbers is because they play @SF, @LAD, @SD on the road a lot against generally good pitchers.

 

Orf gets to hit in Colorado Springs and then goes to mostly other high elevation/bandbox parks and faces journeyman pitching, not Clayton Kershaw.

 

I'm sure there may be a handful that people can find in the majors, but how many 5'9" 180 players in the majors with no power and are not Dee Gordon in the speed category hold an average over .260 or an OBP much above .310 or .320?

 

Scooter is one of the few guys that actually has stuck around with the bat, but it is mostly due to having relatively good power in his bat. Orf probably will have to deal with the outfielders standing halfway in just as Sogard does, and no matter how good your bat control is, you can only find so many green patches against MLB pitching and defense with those constraints.

 

Orf's splits:

 

2017

Home: .353/.419/.577/.996

Away: .288/.375/.438/.813

 

2018

Home: .407/.477/.574/1.051

Away: .319/.396/.362/.758

 

His BABIP in these 2 seasons (overall) is .362 in 2017 and .446 in 2018. Obviously that 2018 one will go down regardless, but either way, those BABIPs occur absolutely nowhere other than Coors Field and Colorado Springs/PCL.

 

To go back to "Orf's road numbers are really good" - Would we be overly excited about a guy that hits .300/.370/.400 that was 28 in AAA in a neutral/slightly hitter-leaning park? That's Eric Sogard territory, but Sogard has not had an extremely long stay in the minors since his early/mid 20s.

 

If Orf puts up an OPS north of .700, its an improvement. Can he? Who knows. But at this point, it's probably worth a shot.

[bill hAll Star]

If Orf puts up an OPS north of .700, its an improvement. Can he? Who knows. But at this point, it's probably worth a shot.

 

Yes, at this point, all we can do is give him a shot. I'm just saying that I think the "all he's done is hit" type of statements due to heavily inflated Colorado Springs numbers are making some a bit more hopeful than they should be about a right-handed Eric Sogard getting called up to replace Eric Sogard.

[xisxisxis]

I'm just saying that I think the "all he's done is hit" type of statements due to heavily inflated Colorado Springs numbers are making some a bit more hopeful than they should be about a right-handed Eric Sogard getting called up to replace Eric Sogard.

 

The way things are going we could clone Eric Sogard, teach his clone to bat right-handed and replace Sogard 1 with Sogard 2 before the Brewers make a roster move...

[torts]

launch the entire position into the sun

[xisxisxis]

Set the controls for the heart of the sun....

 

Name that Band without googling...

[Brewersfanatic2882]

Orf has hit on the road and has had high average and obp numbers all throughout his minor career. Dubon is also an undersized guy with no power that people want up. Do I think he'll set the world on fire, no, but I think he can replace sogard and provide a 260 average with good on base numbers. Our 2b situation has been awful, with Dubon hurt Orf needs a chance. We've found older non highly regarded prospects have success before so you never know. example) Aguilar last year, keon (unpopular oppinion but he produced as a non big prospect), suter last year.

[Lathund]

Out of these three, it has to be Villar. I don't think we're ever seeing 2016 Villar again, but he's the only one of the three who at least has the potential ability to be a productive offensive player. With regards to Sogard it's definitely true that he has been unlucky. But at the same time, even if his BABIP doubled, and even if every single one of those extra hits resulting from that was a double, he'd still be only at a 650 OPS (Using some rather simplified assumptions of course). So he's both unlucky and bad. I'll say one thing though; his defense is better than most give him credit for. 1 costly error doesn't change that. Then again, he's obviously far from Orlando Arcia-level defense. And even Villar is a pretty decent defender if he matures a bit; range and arm are easily good enough, so still no room for Sogard.

 

With regards to Orf, I agree with the sentiment that we shouldn't expect miracles. But wRC+ of -9 (Sogard), 51 (Arcia), 61 (Perez) and 80 (Villar) are all within reach. He does play in hitter-friendly Colorado Springs in the hitter-friendly PCL, but even within that environment his wRC+ is 145, and was 134 in 2017. Adjusted stats certainly aren't perfect, but being ~40% above the league average is at least saying something.

 

The fact that Dubon (depending on how long he's out for) and Saladino are already on the 40-man might well be in their favour over Orf though. Sogard being DFAd opens up a spot too of course, but perhaps they're looking to keep that open for Nelson or Burnes?

[MrTPlush]

I find it interesting everyone is incredibly concerned with our terrible offense from Villar, but no one mentions the almost twice as bad offense Arcia is giving us. Yes, Arcia plays great defense...it is not making up for his awful offense. Both rank terribly at their position (Arcia slightly worse by 4 or so players).

 

If we are actually trying to improve the team to compete this year I wouldn't even flinch grabbing a rental/short term player to start at SS. No need to let a complete black hole keep the job. It is kind of unbelievable that people give Arcia a free pass.