2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[istanbultaye]

They picked up Soria, and already have a rotation at the bottom end of the pen for soaking up innings. Soria is probably as good or better than Chavez or Kintzler, and the current AAA/MLB end of the pen rotation is probably better than JDLR.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Hader throws 2 innings every five days so him being fresh shouldn't be an excuse if he falters more.

[TURBO]

Hader does not throw enough, I will stand by that opinion.

 

He isn't a starter, and is only allowed to throw 2 innings every 5 or 6 days? That is crap.

 

He needs to throw more to stay on his game. It's an opinion, but how many relievers are used like this?

 

I just can't believe that 2 innings every 5th or 6th day is what he wants to do, and I don't believe it keeps him fresh as much as it allows rust to develop for game time situations.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I'm still telling myself it's all part of a master plan for frequent use down the stretch. Limit his innings all early, stay in contention and then throw his arm off in September.

[Baldkin]

Hader does not throw enough, I will stand by that opinion.

 

He isn't a starter, and is only allowed to throw 2 innings every 5 or 6 days? That is crap.

 

He needs to throw more to stay on his game. It's an opinion, but how many relievers are used like this?

 

I just can't believe that 2 innings every 5th or 6th day is what he wants to do, and I don't believe it keeps him fresh as much as it allows rust to develop for game time situations.

 

Let's try some data here, the season started on March 29th, we are now 133 days into the season. Josh Hader has pitched 39 times this year (including the all star game) or an average of once every 3.4 days.

 

He's only had 5 or more days rest between outings 4 times. But yes, clearly Counsell is mismanaging Hader, because he's been completely unsuccessful in his role.

[KeithStone53151]

Cubs just added Jorge de la Rosa to their bullpen. Their bullpen was already deep and solid, and they've added some veterans like Jesse Chavez, Kintzler, and de la Rosa to soak up innings and keep the killers like Edwards and Chisek sharp for down the stretch.

 

I kind of wished Milwaukee would have made similar moves to keep Jeffress, Hader et al. fresh down the stretch.

 

I view this moreso as, they added a couple bad pitchers to soak up innings in losses because they have no depth. The smoke and mirrors from guys like Rosario, Hancock, Bass, etc from AAA is starting to not work anymore...to the point that guys like Chavez and de la rosa are becoming better options. It's generally a good thing that we aren't emulating this example.

[KeithStone53151]

Hader does not throw enough, I will stand by that opinion.

 

He isn't a starter, and is only allowed to throw 2 innings every 5 or 6 days? That is crap.

 

He needs to throw more to stay on his game. It's an opinion, but how many relievers are used like this?

 

I just can't believe that 2 innings every 5th or 6th day is what he wants to do, and I don't believe it keeps him fresh as much as it allows rust to develop for game time situations.

 

Let's try some data here, the season started on March 29th, we are now 133 days into the season. Josh Hader has pitched 39 times this year (including the all star game) or an average of once every 3.4 days.

 

He's only had 5 or more days rest between outings 4 times. But yes, clearly Counsell is mismanaging Hader, because he's been completely unsuccessful in his role.

 

I'll add to this point, Hader has a .419 OPS against over the last 28 days. He's allowed runs twice since July 1, 2 runs both times. The 2 runs allowed on August 7th is probably fairly fresh, and he pitched on both August 4th and 5th with 1.1 combined innings allowed 1 walk, no hits, striking out 2. So it isn't like he had a long layoff before this bad outing.

 

Hader has made 10 apperance over a 41 day span since July 1st which included most of a week off for the all-star break. My point here is that even lately, he's been pitching fairly regularly.

 

It definitely sucks when Hader gives up a couple runs in an outing, but he's not perfect...his ERA isn't going to be 0 and strike out 2/3 of the guys he faces. San Diego as a team is red hot and they lit up every one of our relievers not named Jeffress.

[trwi7]

Jacob Barnes has pitched almost as many innings as Hader since June 1st and Barnes has been sent down to the minors multiple times in that time frame.

[xisxisxis]

Jacob Barnes has pitched almost as many innings as Hader since June 1st and Barnes has been sent down to the minors multiple times in that time frame.

 

But according to CC's manager manual, Hader can only pitch in games the brewers lead by a few runs or are tied and since June 1st that hasn't happened often. Barnes OTH pitches when the team is behind or ahead by a lot so he's had more opportunity to play (the behind part mostly as being ahead by a lot is pretty much impossible with this team)..

 

Since the end of May this team is a 500 ballclub that had built up a 16 win lead. That puts them on pace for 89 wins without looking at strength of schedule, etc. So they are still very much in the chase for a wild card, but a team that has struggled to put any sustained winning streak for 2.5 months and is looking more and more like a 500 team is very unlikely to march into the post-season on a tear. Could happen... Likely won't happen...

[BruisedCrew]

Jacob Barnes has pitched almost as many innings as Hader since June 1st and Barnes has been sent down to the minors multiple times in that time frame.

 

But according to CC's manager manual, Hader can only pitch in games the brewers lead by a few runs or are tied and since June 1st that hasn't happened often. Barnes OTH pitches when the team is behind or ahead by a lot so he's had more opportunity to play (the behind part mostly as being ahead by a lot is pretty much impossible with this team)..

 

Since the end of May this team is a 500 ballclub that had built up a 16 win lead. That puts them on pace for 89 wins without looking at strength of schedule, etc. So they are still very much in the chase for a wild card, but a team that has struggled to put any sustained winning streak for 2.5 months and is looking more and more like a 500 team is very unlikely to march into the post-season on a tear. Could happen... Likely won't happen...

 

To add to this, Hader’s stats since June 1 say something about the Brewers’ decline since then.

 

On May 30, Hader and Knebel finished off 3-2 win over the Cardinals to complete a series victory. At that time the Brewers were 36-21 with a 4.5 game lead over the Cubs and at least a 2 game edge over everyone else in the NL. Since then they have gone 30-32, which is worse than every playoff contender except the Nats.

 

Through May, Hader had appeared in 19 games (all Brewer victories) pitching 33 innings and allowing only 4 earned runs (ERA 1.09) with an amazing 66 strikeouts and opposing hitter OPS of .347.

 

Since then, he has appeared in 19 more games, but only covered 23.1 innings. His ERA is 2.31 with an opponent’s OPS of .553. He has struck out 35 hitters. He has also picked up 2 blown saves and one loss and the Brewers are 12-7 in the games that he has pitched. So, he has still been very good, but significantly less spectacular and less prolific than the first 2 months.

 

In April and May the Brewers picked up a lot of wins by getting through the first 5 or 6 innings with a small lead and using some combination of Hader, Jeffress, Albers, Jennings, Barnes, Williams, and Knebel (when he returned from the DL) to finish out the game. They did that with amazing efficiency, often with relievers covering multiple innings in a game.

 

Things are a lot different now. We all know what has happened to Albers (who was better and more valuable than people remember the first two months) and with injuries and regression for Williams, Soria, and Barnes, plus Knebel’s problems, the bullpen is now a shadow of what it was in May. The ability of the bullpen to cover short starts has been greatly reduced.

 

As for Hader, it seems that he is often being saved for situations that aren’t arising that often, as evidenced by the significant drop in his innings pitched. He also hasn’t been as dominant, making it more difficult for him to cover multiple innings.

 

The Brewers are still in the thick of the race, but to keep pace with the other contenders they’re going to have to find a different formula for winning than they used in April and May. Since getting more innings from the starters doesn’t seem likely, it’s probably going to have to come from a significant improvement from the offense. While there have been some signs of improvement there, they haven’t been big enough or frequent enough to get the team off the .500 train.

[BruisedCrew]

Hader does not throw enough, I will stand by that opinion.

 

He isn't a starter, and is only allowed to throw 2 innings every 5 or 6 days? That is crap.

 

He needs to throw more to stay on his game. It's an opinion, but how many relievers are used like this?

 

I just can't believe that 2 innings every 5th or 6th day is what he wants to do, and I don't believe it keeps him fresh as much as it allows rust to develop for game time situations.

 

Let's try some data here, the season started on March 29th, we are now 133 days into the season. Josh Hader has pitched 39 times this year (including the all star game) or an average of once every 3.4 days.

 

He's only had 5 or more days rest between outings 4 times. But yes, clearly Counsell is mismanaging Hader, because he's been completely unsuccessful in his role.

 

I'll add to this point, Hader has a .419 OPS against over the last 28 days. He's allowed runs twice since July 1, 2 runs both times. The 2 runs allowed on August 7th is probably fairly fresh, and he pitched on both August 4th and 5th with 1.1 combined innings allowed 1 walk, no hits, striking out 2. So it isn't like he had a long layoff before this bad outing.

 

Hader has made 10 apperance over a 41 day span since July 1st which included most of a week off for the all-star break. My point here is that even lately, he's been pitching fairly regularly.

 

It definitely sucks when Hader gives up a couple runs in an outing, but he's not perfect...his ERA isn't going to be 0 and strike out 2/3 of the guys he faces. San Diego as a team is red hot and they lit up every one of our relievers not named Jeffress.

 

I think part of the question is that he has pitched only 23 innings since June 1 after covering 33 in April and May. 23 innings in 62 games is pretty light usage for one of the team’s best pitchers, especially one who is not a closer and is supposed to be able to go multiple innings.

[adambr2]

To get back on topic, just a really interesting race in the NL this year. Basically right now you have 6 teams vying for 5 spots (Phillies, Braves, Cubs, Brewers, Dodgers, Diamondbacks).

 

Which would be great for everyone's odds except there's another two teams right there just on the outside (Cardinals, Rockies), and yet 2 more with still a fighting chance (Nationals, Pirates). The top team in the NL (Cubs) are only 4 games away from the last playoff spot. There's such a small variation between #1 and #5 that it really does come down to who gets hot in September.

[JohnBriggs12]

Hader isn't pitching enough and neither his Burnes. I get giving multiple days between appearances when a guy goes multiple innings, but Burnes hasn't gone beyond an inning since July 21st. In the 20 games since that date, Burnes has logged just 7 innings and thrown a mere 115 pitches. With Soria and Williams on the DL, Counsell can't be afraid to use Burnes on back to back days at least once a week. Burnes is almost 24. He's not a teen. Right now he's in the late inning mix and the alternatives are not so good.

[Boomer5]

The Brewers are 55-2 when leading after 7 innings with our former All Star closer falling apart.

 

CC is managing the bullpen just fine.

[xisxisxis]

The Brewers are 55-2 when leading after 7 innings with our former All Star closer falling apart.

 

CC is managing the bullpen is just fine.

 

Corrected... Why should the manager get credit for the players doing their job?...

[Outlander]

The manager can most definitely put the player in the best position to succeed. If there isn't a defined 7th or 8th or 9th inning guy and he is playing the matchups and each pitcher's strengths then it can be easier for the pitcher to do their job.

[wildcat83]

Everybody is worried about Hader not pitching enough, but if the Brewers are planning for a deep playoff push he needs to be fresh. I can see him throwing a ton of innings in the post season if needed. His post season useage will be very different from what it is now.

 

On topic, today seems like a big day. If we can find a way to get past the Braves today, the Cubs will have their hands full with the Nats tonight. Could cut it to just a game.

[Boomer5]

The Brewers are 55-2 when leading after 7 innings with our former All Star closer falling apart.

 

CC is managing the bullpen is just fine.

 

Corrected... Why should the manager get credit for the players doing their job?...

 

Then why does the manger get the blame when the players don’t do their jobs?

 

Mind blown bro....

[sveumrules]

Hader does not throw enough, I will stand by that opinion.

 

He isn't a starter, and is only allowed to throw 2 innings every 5 or 6 days? That is crap.

 

He needs to throw more to stay on his game. It's an opinion, but how many relievers are used like this?

 

I just can't believe that 2 innings every 5th or 6th day is what he wants to do, and I don't believe it keeps him fresh as much as it allows rust to develop for game time situations.

 

Hader currently has the 12th most relief innings in all of MLB. That would seem to indicate he is throwing plenty.

 

As Baldkin pointed out he is not throwing every 5 or 6 days, it is every 3 or 4. Perhaps your opinion that he does not throw enough is being informed by your erroneous assumption about the frequency with which he pitches?

 

With his current usage pattern Hader has been a top 5 reliever in all of MLB per both WAR & Win Probability Added this season. If he is accomplishing all that while rusty I can't imagine what his true ceiling as a reliever is.

[SomewhereInTime]

Hader does not throw enough, I will stand by that opinion.

 

He isn't a starter, and is only allowed to throw 2 innings every 5 or 6 days? That is crap.

 

He needs to throw more to stay on his game. It's an opinion, but how many relievers are used like this?

 

I just can't believe that 2 innings every 5th or 6th day is what he wants to do, and I don't believe it keeps him fresh as much as it allows rust to develop for game time situations.

 

They're trying to not ruin him, like what happens to other relievers who pitch 75+ appearances and then can't find the strikezone the next year and end up on the DL.

[adambr2]

If we don't make the playoffs, we'll have traded Ryan Cordell, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, Kodi Medeiros, Luis Ortiz, and Jean Carmona for three different 2 month rentals plus one year of Jonathan Schoop. Not a very good use of crucial prospect capital.

[SomewhereInTime]

If we don't make the playoffs, we'll have traded Ryan Cordell, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, Kodi Medeiros, Luis Ortiz, and Jean Carmona for three different 2 month rentals plus one year of Jonathan Schoop. Not a very good use of resources.

 

That's what I worry about, even if we make the postseason, it's very likely a WC, is it worth it if we don't win the WC game? Losing one or two of those guys isn't a huge deal, losing all of them hurts the farm system quite a bit. Is this what's going to be done the next few years if this team stays competitive? If so this isn't the Stearns approach I expected and nothing's really changed.

[Jopal78]

Then again Cordell has been ineffective for the White Sox and is 27. Jorg Lopez can’t even crack the 25 man roster of the Royals and is out of options, and there is no way knowing any pitching prospect below AAA will ever make the majors let alone contribute, and with the Brewers record of developing starting pitchers over the last 25+ years it’s very likel Kodi M and Ortiz wouldn’t have amounted to anything in Milwaukee anyhow

[superfly]

If we don't make the playoffs, we'll have traded Ryan Cordell, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, Kodi Medeiros, Luis Ortiz, and Jean Carmona for three different 2 month rentals plus one year of Jonathan Schoop. Not a very good use of crucial prospect capital.

 

Where were we going to keep all these prospects? Is our Rule 5 stash list bigger than everyone else's? The only one on that list I am a bit disappointed about is Medeiros, but such is life and there will be another Medeiros down the line. Lopez, Cordell are very meh, Phillips is about as busty as Brinson, and Ortiz is an injury waiting to happen.

[Chicago Here]

If we don't make the playoffs, we'll have traded Ryan Cordell, Brett Phillips, Jorge Lopez, Kodi Medeiros, Luis Ortiz, and Jean Carmona for three different 2 month rentals plus one year of Jonathan Schoop. Not a very good use of resources.

 

That's what I worry about, even if we make the postseason, it's very likely a WC, is it worth it if we don't win the WC game? Losing one or two of those guys isn't a huge deal, losing all of them hurts the farm system quite a bit. Is this what's going to be done the next few years if this team stays competitive? If so this isn't the Stearns approach I expected and nothing's really changed.

We were the best team in the NL and should have secured our position by trading our #1 or #2. Thats what teams do to go to the series. Instead we went cheap like we always do this time of the year and didnt get a solid Ace. Sorry but Soria isnt gonna get us there. Defrom