2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[KeithStone53151]

Crazy how the schedule plays out before the AS break - Cubs still have played 2 fewer games than Milwaukee due to earlier season rainouts, but the Brewers will be playing 3 more games than them between now and the next 11 days due to a bunch of scheduled offdays in early July for Chicago that I'm sure they wish could be sprinkled into August and September instead. It would be huge for the Brewers to play well through next weekend and keep/expand their divisional lead while gaining the advantage of having many more off days during the stretch run. The Cubs will have to play their final 69 games over 74 days, while the Brewers will only have 64 games to play.

 

The Cubs' pitching needed these early July days off due to a recent extended stretch of games, but they still have a ridiculous stretch from mid August through mid September that goes like this:

 

2 game set with Brewers at home

6 game road trip at Pit and Det with 1 off day for travel between those two cities (close distance travel)

7 game homestand with Cincy and Mets

11 game roadtrip with stops in Atl, Philly, Brewers, then back out to DC for the Nats

3 game homestand with Brewers

 

29 games over 30 days (with 23 straight games from Aug 21 - Sept 12), traveling to 9 different destinations when including trips back for homestands. What could make things even more interesting for the Cubs is that they only play 6 games during the 2nd half in stadiums that have essentially no chance of a rainout (@Brewers, @Dbacks). If they run into a bad stretch of weather at any point that leads to rainouts, there's no room left on their schedule aside from adding doubleheaders.

 

It's a bit of a shame many of the Cubs injured players are missing time now while the have offdays, and likely will be healthy in a couple weeks when they play 29 games in 30 days. A bit fortunate for them. It's going to be really tough to hang with the Cubs down the stretch, though it's nice we still have a small lead.

[Eye Black]

There are currently only 4 teams in the National League with a worse record than the Washington Nationals. I can’t believe they have been so poor this year with the roster they have.

[Fear The Chorizo]

There are currently only 4 teams in the National League with a worse record than the Washington Nationals. I can’t believe they have been so poor this year with the roster they have.

 

I doubt they actually decide to trade Harper at the deadline, but are there any other pieces on that team that could be available and help the Brewers should the Nats decide to sell in the next week?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cubs' Bryant still dealing with a sore shoulder, likely something that is going to hamper him the rest of this year. Baez had to leave the game tonight after he got slid into at 2b and dinged his knee. Despite blowing past the brewers in the standings right before the break they aren't really set up to just win 8 out of every 10 games from here on out. They aren't going to run away with the division...

[SomewhereInTime]

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21986511/what-happen-baseball-game-went-50-innings

 

So I was reading this as the Brewer game went into the 10th today, and what do you know, we've got PHI/LAD in the 16th right now with a position player on the mound! The first 50 inning game could be tonight!

[Eye Black]

In terms of NL division races both the Pirates (6.0 GB) and Giants (4.5 GB) are now closer to winning their respective divisions than the Nationals (7.0 GB).

[Fear The Chorizo]

This is a gem of a quote following Yu Darvish's long toss and 16-pitch bullpen session yesterday by everyone's favorite hipster manager

 

“There was no real terrible discomfort” -Maddon

 

Not exactly a "He'll be back on the mound next week" sort of rosy outlook. Thank God Yu found a better offer than the Brewers' this past offseason, because it sure seems like he's going to need surgery again at some point if he wants to get back to being good a pitching.

 

Yu being out keeps Montgomery in their rotation and continues to stress their pen - not a good spot for the Cubs to be in considering the lack of days off they'll have the rest of the season, and a lack of established prospects to try and dangle for a starter at the deadline.

 

Brewers are actually tied with the Cubs in the win column currently - 3 fewer days off for Chicago over the dog days stretch of late July through August is a big deal.

[Eye Black]

Two months to go and this has the makings of a fun race!

 

Post Trade Deadline National League Division and Wild Card Standings below:

 

Division Standings

 

 

Wild Card Standings

 

[stalton]

As of August 1st, the Brew Crew is tied for 1st in games played. Those off days are really going to be nice!

[YelichPosse]

The Brewers are 14-5 combined vs. Atlanta, Colorado, Arizona, and LA. Games in hand. Tiebreakers. Etc are all nice to have!

[A Swing and A Drive]

The Nationals still worry me. It's like they are lying in the weeds...

[tmwiese55]

The Nationals still worry me. It's like they are lying in the weeds...

 

And two strong games after all the drama a few nights ago. Maybe that kind of got them motivated or got the locker room stuff cleared up a bit. Sometimes karma and chemistry goes longer in baseball than people realize. Plus Strasburg should be back soon.

 

I just checked my sites odds on them to win the division and it's only +200, was hoping for a better payout than that. Suprisingly ATL is also +200 and Philly +130. If anything I'd have thought Philly was the more likely to team to fall off

[ThisIsMyCrew]

As of August 1st, the Brew Crew is tied for 1st in games played. Those off days are really going to be nice!

 

Only downside is we don’t get to watch them....but they will get some nice rest!

[KeithStone53151]

As of August 1st, the Brew Crew is tied for 1st in games played. Those off days are really going to be nice!

 

Only downside is we don’t get to watch them....but they will get some nice rest!

 

With the extra bench bats, guys should get occasional off days or part time days as well. I'd like to think nobody will wear out down the stretch like last season, whether we can keep pace with the Cubs is another question.

 

I'm not convinced the Cubs got much better at the deadline, meanwhile at the very least we can adjust playing time if Moustakas or Shaw or Schoop goes through a cold stretch...raising the floor of our production. If Bryant and Darvish stay on the sidelines for most of the rest of the season, I think we have a very good chance to beat the Cubs for the division. If Bryant and Darvish were healthy, they'd still be at least a bit ahead of us. I'm hoping Hamels doesn't work out and their starting pitching continues to be sub-par.

[MoreTrife]

These next two months are going to be crazy. I have a feeling the Cards will be back in this because they are the Cards and exorcised Matheny. 2 of 3 from Cubs and 3 of 4 from Rockies. Cubs actually have a pretty cakewalk schedule other than few off days. Pirates...doubt they keep it up but VERY few teams are out of it. I am scared for the Brewers as a pessimist.

[KeithStone53151]

These next two months are going to be crazy. I have a feeling the Cards will be back in this because they are the Cards and exorcised Matheny. 2 of 3 from Cubs and 3 of 4 from Rockies. Cubs actually have a pretty cakewalk schedule other than few off days. Pirates...doubt they keep it up but VERY few teams are out of it. I am scared for the Brewers as a pessimist.

 

The Cubs do have it fairly easy in August, though September is a different story. And sometimes teams get weirdly good when they sell off pieces and bring up young players. Like the Reds last year. As an example this year, lately the O's and Tigers have been putting up some big run totals. Hopefully the Cubs see Degrom, Syndergaard, and Wheeler against the Mets.

 

For me personally, the Cubs losing is a very very close second to the Brewers winning. My own personal crusade against them due to their obnoxious fan base. It's a shame too as most of their players are very likeable. But man, it's almost like they can't enjoy having a good team without simultaneously cranking up their obnoxious a hole routine to all time highs.

[brewcrewdue80]

Wow. 11 teams are above .500 in NL..

[Fear The Chorizo]

Brewers 1.5 GB of the Cubs but currently with 3 more games played than them, so trailing in the loss column by 3...schedule gets really quirky between now and Aug 20th, as the Cubs have 3 days off over the next 12 calendar days while the Brewers have 2 sandwiched on either side of a two game set in Chicago. That means that entering games on August 21, the Brewers will have likely played 4 more games than the Cubs with only 41 calendar days of the season remaining. That's a huge disparity that will impact how fresh these teams are heading into September.

 

The Cubs' next 9 games are against the Nats, Brewers, and Pirates, and that stretch from late August through mid September on their schedule without any days off is looking more and more difficult. That 23 straight day with a game stretch ends with an 11-game, 4 city road trip (ATL, Philly, Milwaukee, and Washington) followed by a 3 game home series against the Brewers. Milwaukee actually plays them 6 times during that stretch. In theory, roster expansion in September would figure to benefit the Cubs at a time when they're sure to need extra arms and probably have position players needing a game or two off - the problem for them is outside of players they have on the DL with questionable return dates (Bryant, Darvish, Morrow, etc), I don't see them having any September callups worth playing. If some of those veterans don't come back healthy off the DL soon, their likely september callups are already on the active roster.

 

Both the Pirates and Cards aren't close to being out of the NL Central race, either - the Pirates in particular play the Cubs and Brewers a ton down the stretch.

[KeithStone53151]

It's actually crazy how close it is. I view the race as 6 teams right now, with all of the Nationals, Pirates, Cardinals, Rockies, and Giants as a "win 12 of 14" stretch from climbing into the race. Even the Cubs with the best record in baseball are only 3.5 games ahead of the second wildcard. Every one of those 6 teams knows that losing 2 in a row could drastically change their situation. If we lose 2 in a row, we could be tied for the 2nd wildcard. It's all so close.

 

45 games left, I think we might need 90 or 91 wins to guarantee a playoff spot and 94 or 95 for the division. If that's accurate, we need to go 29-16 to make a run at the division or 25-20 for a wildcard spot. Neither of those will be easy considering our schedule, we don't really get an easy opponent the rest of the way...unless you count the Reds(which I don't).

[BruisedCrew]

The Brewers position is looking very shaky.

 

They are clinging to a playoff spot in the “If the season ended today...” scenario, but there are several factors that I don’t think work in their favor.

 

1. The Brewers have been treading water for a few months and have lost ground to every one of the other playoff contenders except for the Nationals. The bullpen that was so strong for much of the season is now fading.

 

2. If you believe the grades that the supposed experts give out, the Brewers did less to improve themselves at the trade deadline than any other playoff contender. So, it may be difficult for the Brewers to stop the downward trend as they play nothing but contenders and the improved Reds the rest of the way.

 

3. The Diamondbacks and the Dodgers did the most to help themselves, and I think those teams are both likely to pull away from the Brewers. Their starting pitcher rotations are vastly superior to the Brewers, and now that the Brewers bullpen is fading those 5 inning starts aren’t going to cut it. The Hamels acquisition may prove to be the move that pushes the Cubs to the best record in the league.

 

4. The Nationals have underperformed all year, but they are showing signs of pulling it together. They and the Phillies and Braves have the advantage of being in the same division as the Mets and Marlins, and they all have multiple series against those teams the rest of the way.

 

5. My gut feeling is that the best the Brewers can realistically hope for is to pull out the last wild card spot in a battle with the 3 teams from the east and the Rockies. When they first added the second wild card team I said that it hardly feels like your team was in the playoffs if they lose as the road team in the wild card game. I still feel that way: for me the biggest thrill in the Brewers getting to the playoffs comes from being able to attend at least one home playoff game, as I have in each of their other playoff appearances.

[Ennder]

That post is so bizarre considering the Brewers have gained playoff probability since the all streak break. People are treating the team like it has collapsed recently and it has done nothing but move in the positive direction.

[BruisedCrew]

That post is so bizarre considering the Brewers have gained playoff probability since the all streak break. People are treating the team like it has collapsed recently and it has done nothing but move in the positive direction.

 

Do those playoff probabilities take into account player moves made at the deadline? Or do they give greater weight to a team’s more recent performance? And I don’t mean most recent as in the last week or two, but do they at least give the last month or two more weight in projecting future performance than performance in April and May? If not, they are, in my opinion, worthless, just like they were in 2014 when they showed the Brewers with a high playoff probability at the beginning of September when anyone with two eyes and a brain could see that they were falling apart.

 

I’m not expecting an epic collapse like 2014, but I think there are several teams that are better positioned for the stretch run.

[brewcrewdue80]

Brewers 1.5 GB of the Cubs but currently with 3 more games played than them, so trailing in the loss column by 3...schedule gets really quirky between now and Aug 20th, as the Cubs have 3 days off over the next 12 calendar days while the Brewers have 2 sandwiched on either side of a two game set in Chicago. That means that entering games on August 21, the Brewers will have likely played 4 more games than the Cubs with only 41 calendar days of the season remaining. That's a huge disparity that will impact how fresh these teams are heading into September.

 

The Cubs' next 9 games are against the Nats, Brewers, and Pirates, and that stretch from late August through mid September on their schedule without any days off is looking more and more difficult. That 23 straight day with a game stretch ends with an 11-game, 4 city road trip (ATL, Philly, Milwaukee, and Washington) followed by a 3 game home series against the Brewers. Milwaukee actually plays them 6 times during that stretch. In theory, roster expansion in September would figure to benefit the Cubs at a time when they're sure to need extra arms and probably have position players needing a game or two off - the problem for them is outside of players they have on the DL with questionable return dates (Bryant, Darvish, Morrow, etc), I don't see them having any September callups worth playing. If some of those veterans don't come back healthy off the DL soon, their likely september callups are already on the active roster.

 

Both the Pirates and Cards aren't close to being out of the NL Central race, either - the Pirates in particular play the Cubs and Brewers a ton down the stretch.

 

Lucky for the Cubs, September callups. Getting tired down the stretch will be lessened than the Brewers dealing with that long stretch earlier this season with a 25man.

[Outlander]

The Cubs series are always important but this Braves series will have a huge impact on who makes the playoffs. Really could go anywhere from a nice 4 game lead over the Braves to being 4th in the Wild Card Standings. Hope the Brewers go all out to win all three as these games do count more than others.

[Jopal78]

Cubs just added Jorge de la Rosa to their bullpen. Their bullpen was already deep and solid, and they've added some veterans like Jesse Chavez, Kintzler, and de la Rosa to soak up innings and keep the killers like Edwards and Chisek sharp for down the stretch.

 

I kind of wished Milwaukee would have made similar moves to keep Jeffress, Hader et al. fresh down the stretch.