2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[Greenleaf1]

Glad for them that they have the day off today so they got to have a fun party and Counsell can probably give them the full day off today. Not sure how their schedule normally works, but they seem like the kind of team that would get together this evening for a light workout and watch the Cubs game in the clubhouse or something.

[JohnBriggs12]

So obviously the Pirates winning tomorrow (today) would be MASSIVE. I hope that happens, I really do, but I am not expecting it. That leaves us 1 GB going into the weekend.

 

Assuming the Brewers take care of business this weekend vs Detroit, what are the odds of St. Louis giving a really good showing in Chicago? I don't know. I like the pitchers going for the Cards at least and hopefully with them being in desperation mode will help.

 

The Cubs face Trevor Williams tonight. He's been among the best starting pitchers in baseball in the second half of the season, and is absolutely not a pushover. Lester is pitching for the Cubs. I am expecting a low-scoring game. It going to be a matter of if and when the Pirates can get to that overripe bullpen. I totally and completely expect a Pirates win this evening.

 

The Cardinals are one game out of a Wild Card game, so they have no choice but to put together good showing this weekend, and hope the Dodgers continue to lose. I don't think the Rockies are going to fall off. They lucked out with getting hot combined with playing teams that have thrown in the towel this year.

 

Lester's faced the Pirates 4 times this year with mixed results. Two of the starts he was stellar and didn't allow a run. The other two, were just the opposite, having allowed 4 runs in each. Williams has faced the Cubs twice, allowing just one run in each of those starts. I like the Pirates are taking their role seriously, thought it's somewhat disturbing that they've essentially shut down the guys who are FA to be.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Let's all just be happy the Cubs don't end with Philly, who decided the season was over 2 weeks ago.

[TURBO]

I don't think we could ask for a better 3 game series for the Cubs. If anyone will play them tough it's the Cardinals.

 

I'm a little worried about us playing the Tigers, seems like the perfect let-down series, but I'd rather be playing them then the Pirates...

 

We couldn't have drawn it up better ourselves, it's all on the line, what more could we ask for besides already clinching the division? lol

 

Such a great, great season!

[fondybrewfan]

I give the Cubs less than a 10% of sweeping their 4 remaining games given the pitching they will be up against. No doubt in my mind the Brewers will be playing for the Division title Sunday and possibly Monday.

 

Maybe The Jordan Zimmerman matchup on Friday scares me more than it should but the Tigers starters on the weekend looking fairly promising from the Brewers perspective.

 

I absolutely think the Cubs could go 2-2 and if the Brewers take care of business against DET the Division title is there for the taking.

[Dragonbait]

With the way the Cub's bullpen is going, I dont think they will have a good last 4 games.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think we could ask for a better 3 game series for the Cubs. If anyone will play them tough it's the Cardinals.

 

I'm a little worried about us playing the Tigers, seems like the perfect let-down series, but I'd rather be playing them then the Pirates...

 

We couldn't have drawn it up better ourselves, it's all on the line, what more could we ask for besides already clinching the division? lol

 

Such a great, great season!

 

I worry about a let-down as well, as they played really hard and put everything into this Cardinal series. But every player quote last night, along with Counsell, indicated that no one feels like the job is done. It's going to be a raucous atmosphere at Miller Par this weekend. Hopefully the players can feed off of that, and end the season on a great note.

[IIAY]

On the morning of Sunday, August 19th, the Brewers were 68-57 after losing their third straight game (1 to the Cubs and 2 to the Cardinals). Up to that point, they were a dismal 20-28 vs. the NL Central despite being 19 games over .500 vs. the rest of baseball. They also were 4th in the Wild Card standings, behind the Phillies, Cardinals, and Rockies.

 

That day at Busch Stadium, Jhoulys Chacin faced John Gant. Brewers won 2-1.

 

Fast forward 38 days to September 26th... Jhoulys Chacin faces John Gant at Busch Stadium. The Brewers win 2-1 to secure a post-season birth and at worst the #1 WC.

 

During that stretch, the Brewers went 24-10 overall, including 19-9 vs. the NL Central to actually give them a winning record in the division (39-37).

[coolhandluke121]

I think the Brewers have caught the wave and are going to win the division outright. Just getting that feeling. The Cubs look totally drained, both from the jam of games and off-the-field stuff. I think they're out of gas.

 

The Brewers looked a lot worse than them when their bullpen was gassed in July. I didn't jump on the "Brewers are gonna choke" bandwagon then and I'm not gonna say that about the Cubs now. It doesn't "feel" like they're going to win the division, but all they need is 7-inning starts from Lester and Hendricks to turn things around. Context is everything. You're always hot, until all of a sudden you're not. You're always in a slump, until all of a sudden you're not.

 

The Cubs still control their destiny but I think the Brewers have a great chance to gain one game due to strength of schedule. I'd say a tie for the division is the most likely, with the Brewers having the edge in a tiebreaker game because Chacin will have 4 days rest and the Brewers' bullpen will be more rested as well.

 

Right now I'd say these are the approximate odds:

Tie (40%)

Cubs by 1 (25%)

Brewers by 1 (20%)

Cubs by 2 (8%)

Brewers by 2 (6%)

Someone by 3 (1%)

[Dragonbait]

On the morning of Sunday, August 19th, the Brewers were 68-57 after losing their third straight game (1 to the Cubs and 2 to the Cardinals). Up to that point, they were a dismal 20-28 vs. the NL Central despite being 19 games over .500 vs. the rest of baseball. They also were 4th in the Wild Card standings, behind the Phillies, Cardinals, and Rockies.

 

That day at Busch Stadium, Jhoulys Chacin faced John Gant. Brewers won 2-1.

 

Fast forward 38 days to September 26th... Jhoulys Chacin faces John Gant at Busch Stadium. The Brewers win 2-1 to secure a post-season birth and at worst the #1 WC.

 

During that stretch, the Brewers went 24-10 overall, including 19-9 vs. the NL Central to actually give them a winning record in the division (39-37).

 

Who doesn't love symmetry like this?

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I think the Brewers have caught the wave and are going to win the division outright. Just getting that feeling. The Cubs look totally drained, both from the jam of games and off-the-field stuff. I think they're out of gas.

 

The Brewers looked a lot worse than them when their bullpen was gassed in July. I didn't jump on the "Brewers are gonna choke" bandwagon then and I'm not gonna say that about the Cubs now. It doesn't "feel" like they're going to win the division, but all they need is 7-inning starts from Lester and Hendricks to turn things around. Context is everything. You're always hot, until all of a sudden you're not. You're always in a slump, until all of a sudden you're not.

 

The Cubs still control their destiny but I think the Brewers have a great chance to gain one game due to strength of schedule. I'd say a tie for the division is the most likely, with the Brewers having the edge in a tiebreaker game because Chacin will have 4 days rest and the Brewers' bullpen will be more rested as well.

 

Right now I'd say these are the approximate odds:

Tie (40%)

Cubs by 1 (25%)

Brewers by 1 (20%)

Cubs by 2 (8%)

Brewers by 2 (6%)

Someone by 3 (1%)

 

I agree about them getting hot, it could have started last night, but not about their pen. Their pen looks atrocious and almost blew it again last night. There's really nobody they can trust to close a game out right now. And your odds are a bit off. Fangraphs gives us about a 33% shot at the division, 538 at 44%. You're at ~27, which is pretty significantly understated.

[tmwiese55]

The way I read 538 though it just says division winner. Not factoring tie and subsequent tie break game. So take our 47% chance to win that tiebreaker and add to CHL's other 27 and it goes up to the same area, if not higher. Don't wanna do the math in my head. They actually predict a tie in the simulation on 538

[coolhandluke121]

 

I agree about them getting hot, it could have started last night, but not about their pen. Their pen looks atrocious and almost blew it again last night. There's really nobody they can trust to close a game out right now. And your odds are a bit off. Fangraphs gives us about a 33% shot at the division, 538 at 44%. You're at ~27, which is pretty significantly understated.

 

The Brewers' pen looked atrocious too when they were overused. Granted, the Cubs might not get the rest they need this week, in which case I would expect recent trends to continue, but I think people are underestimating their talent because of a slump. They looked pretty mediocre when they fell ~5 games behind the Brewers for extended stretches each of the last two season, and we all know what happened there.

 

I'm not buying into their recent slump against good teams as much as a lot of people seem to be. It's no different than when the Brewers were slumping against the Pirates, Cubs, and Cardinals and I kept defending them. The Cubs are a really talented team that controls their own destiny, and as much as I want the Brewers to win the division, I would need better than 2:1 odds to bet on it.*

 

*ETA: Win it outright, I mean.

[coolhandluke121]

The way I read 538 though it just says division winner. Not factoring tie. So take our 47% chance to win that tiebreaker and add to CHL other 27 and it goes up to the same area, if not higher. Don't wanna do the math in my head. They actually predict a tie in the simulation on 538

 

Good point. Thanks for catching that. I do think the Brewers have an advantage in a tiebreaker game, so in a way I'm actually giving them close to a 50% chance (26% to win the division outright plus a little more than half of the 40 percentage points in the case of a tie).

[nate82]

I think the most likely scenario is the Brewers go 2-1, the Cubs go 1-3, the Cardinals go 2-1, the Dodgers go 2-1 and the Rockies go 3-1. The Cardinals could sweep the Cubs but they have to win Friday's game as that is the toughest pitching match up the Cardinals will face. I like the Cardinals versus Hamels and Montgomery on Sat and Sun.

 

The Cubs have the toughest schedule of all of the teams. The Cubs have Williams today, Wainwright Friday, Mikolas Saturday, and Flaherty on Sunday. If the Cubs win the division they deserve it because that is a brutal 4 game stretch of some pretty good pitching. The Cubs bullpen also looks like it is on life support or has already died. If they have to pitch any more innings I don't see how the Cubs can get through a Wild Card game without using one of their starters as a reliever.

 

By far the Brewers have the easiest path the rest of the way. The Rockies will be next only because the Nationals and the Phillies bullpen are laughable. The Dodgers have Bumgarner tomorrow but after that the pitching match ups favor the Dodgers.

 

It is possible that the Cubs go 0-4 and will have to play either the Cardinals, Dodgers, or Rockies at home. There could be a game 163 on Monday if the Dodgers or Rockies are tied with the Cardinals but that would mean the Rockies would have to go 2-2 and the Dodgers going 2-1. Both the Rockies and the Dodgers can still be eliminated from playoff contention for a wild card spot. The Dodgers would have to go 1-2 and the Cardinals going 3-0 or going 0-3 and the Cardinals going 2-1 to be eliminated. The Rockies would have to go 1-3 and the Cardinals go 3-0 or going 0-4 and the Cardinals going 2-1 to be eliminated. Both the Rockies and Dodgers would need to win 2 games to be guaranteed at least a game 163 if the Cardinals go 3-0.

 

Basically for the Cardinals to make the playoffs they have to go 3-0 and the Dodgers losing at least 1 game and the Rockies have to lose 2 games. Next Monday could be crazy if the Rockies and Dodgers are tied and the Cardinals somehow go 3-0 against the Cubs. You would have a 1 game playoff between the Rockies and Dodgers and then you could also have a 1 game playoff between the Cardinals and whoever loses the NL West. The Dodgers, Rockies and Cardinals could all be tied up on Monday. It is very unlikely this scenario happens but wow this is going to be an interesting end of the year for baseball especially in the NL. You could have two one game playoff games before the playoffs even start.

[Warning Track Power]

The Cubs have the toughest schedule of all of the teams. The Cubs have Williams today, Wainwright Friday, Mikolas Saturday, and Flaherty on Sunday. If the Cubs win the division they deserve it because that is a brutal 4 game stretch of some pretty good pitching.

Regardless of rooting interest, the Cubs have an absolutely brutal 4 game stretch against a super hot SP (Williams) and their arch-nemesis who are fighting for their playoff lives. I really believe the Cardinals will take 2 of 3 from the Cubs. If the Brewers take care of business and just win the series from the Tigers, the Pirate game tonight will be the deciding factor in who wins the division.

[Dragonbait]

I see tonight's Cub game as the one that will decide the division:

 

Cubs win and they win the Central

Cubs lose and its the Brewers'.

[YelichPosse]

I see tonight's Cub game as the one that will decide the division:

 

Cubs win and they win the Central

Cubs lose and its the Brewers'.

 

 

I can see this as a very real possibility. Catching some of the highlights from gameday from last nights game, even the Pirates announcers seemed to be pulling for the Brewers to overtake the Cubs.... as much as can be however... lol. And i bet the Pirates would take great pride in damaging a team's division chances. Tonight should be fun to watch. Especially since we aren't playing, for one day, the pressure is not on us!

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I see tonight's Cub game as the one that will decide the division:

 

Cubs win and they win the Central

Cubs lose and its the Brewers'.

 

 

I can see this as a very real possibility. Catching some of the highlights from gameday from last nights game, even the Pirates announcers seemed to be pulling for the Brewers to overtake the Cubs.... as much as can be however... lol. And i bet the Pirates would take great pride in damaging a team's division chances. Tonight should be fun to watch. Especially since we aren't playing, for one day, the pressure is not on us!

 

I thought the same thing as I watched that game. I don't watch them enough to know if they're always like that, but it was weird to me, or maybe just that our guys don't do that.

 

"C'mon, strike him out," was a particularly weird moment from a broadcaster for me.

 

At one point the play-by-play mentioned that Brewers fans are going nuts. It was a fun game to watch.

[tmwiese55]

Saw that Kershaw is scheduled to pitch Saturday. With LAD now in a battle I don't see why he'd be skipped in that game as they try to win the division. I suppose maybe they could give up if they lose Friday and Col wins today and Friday but that seems unlikely. So, basically he likely won't be available for the WC game.

 

the lined up starter would be Stripling as of now. Buehler if LAD is out of it come Sunday and can hold him back.

[MrTPlush]

Saw that Kershaw is scheduled to pitch Saturday.

 

Yah I doubt they hold him back because that would leave him resting a long time between starts. He last pitched on the 24th and the WC game is on the 2nd. I am guessing with such a good rotation that would likely just toss whoever is slated for that day on normal rest and Kershaw would likely be available in relief if they really wanted to.

[coolhandluke121]

Still prefer the Rockies no matter what pitchers the Dodgers use this weekend and how hot the Rockies look. The Rockies are just flat-out the inferior team, and no hot streak can change that.

 

Now the neither of them can realistically catch the Brewers, I find it incredibly easy to root for the Dodgers to win. It's a little tricky because I want the Rockies to stay ahead of the Cardinals, but neither one of them is nearly as talented as the Dodgers in my opinion.

[Warning Track Power]

Say you’re the Cubs and the Wild Card game is Dodgers-Brewers. Who are you rooting for? I am of the opinion that regardless of where the Brewers-Cubs would square off, that series would go the distance. With the Dodgers having to throw Kershaw in a Wild Card game, are the Cubs really that afraid of that rotation and bullpen? I honestly think the Cubs would rather face the Dodgers than the Brewers.

[fondybrewfan]

I still find it highly unlikely the Cubs sweep the Cards so I believe Brewers still have a good opportunity here.

 

I like that the Cubs play there day games ahead of the Brewers the next two days. Just adds more excitement to the Brewers game should they drop one or both of them.

[YelichPosse]

What I like most, and is underrated and understated here... is that the Cardinals likely need to WIN OUT to make the playoffs. If they can get the fist game today, watch out... we may be clinching Sunday. Just saying. Hold on to your hats, this is fun. Worst case we host a WC game Tuesday. I like our chances in that at home.