2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[kalle8]

God of Baseball: Who was?

Me (pointing at Joey): Him

[sveumrules]

The Red Sox are going to win the World Series. The Yankees are going to win the World Series. The Indians are going to win the World Series. The Astros are going to win the World Series. The A's are going to win the World Series. The Braves are going to win the World Series. The Cubs are going to win the World Series. The Cardinals are going to win the World Series. The Dodgers are going to win the World Series. The Rockies are going to win the World Series.

 

Just figured I'd jinx every other team in the potential postseason field, ensuring that the Brewers will now...well...you know

[MrTPlush]

The playoff odds are at 99.8% people. I mean lets all breath. Tonight is the virtual clincher if we can win it...either of the next two days essentially. Now if I was the Cardinals...I would be on my 2,000th oxygen tank for the day.

[shanedog19]

The playoff odds are at 99.8% people. I mean lets all breath. Tonight is the virtual clincher if we can win it...either of the next two days essentially. Now if I was the Cardinals...I would be on my 2,000th oxygen tank for the day.

 

There is a big part of me that likes having the Rockies keep winning having us keep the pedal to the metal. I think the team relaxes just a little bit once they clinch the wild card, I like having that little bit of doubt in making the playoffs that is helping us keep our edge.

[FVBrewerFan]

The playoff odds are at 99.8% people. I mean lets all breath. Tonight is the virtual clincher if we can win it...either of the next two days essentially. Now if I was the Cardinals...I would be on my 2,000th oxygen tank for the day.

 

There is a big part of me that likes having the Rockies keep winning having us keep the pedal to the metal. I think the team relaxes just a little bit once they clinch the wild card, I like having that little bit of doubt in making the playoffs that is helping us keep our edge.

 

Plus, they're only 1.5 games away from winning the division and having HF throughout NL playoffs. So even if they have essentially clinched the WC, they have plenty to play for.

[owbc]

At this point the most likely disaster scenario is losing the wild card game. This team would be very, very dangerous in a postseason series and it would be a shame to not have that opportunity. That's why it has to be petal-to-the-medal to try and catch the Cubs.

[KeithStone53151]

Fangraphs has us at 99.7% odds of making playoffs and 16% chance to win the division. I think we are 1 win away from mathematically clinching a wildcard and 2 wins away from clinching the 1st wildcard as long as 1 of those wins is against the cardinals. We would then have tiebreakers for home field against both the Rockies and Cardinals...and would tie either team if they won out from this point.

[MrTPlush]

We cannot clinch a wild card with another win vs. Cardinals. There would still be a scenario where the Rockies win out, Cardinals win out after the one loss, and we lose out. This would set up the Rockies in the #1 spot and we would have to battle the Cardinals out for the #2 spot because we have the same record.

 

Another win vs. the Cardinals assures us playing after game 162 and barring two teams going undefeated to close out the season and us going defeated to close out the season we will see real postseason play.

 

All that being said absolutely insane this team is poised to win approx. 93 games...insane.

[Warning Track Power]

Fangraphs has us at 99.7% odds of making playoffs and 16% chance to win the division. I think we are 1 win away from mathematically clinching a wildcard and 2 wins away from clinching the 1st wildcard as long as 1 of those wins is against the cardinals. We would then have tiebreakers for home field against both the Rockies and Cardinals...and would tie either team if they won out from this point.

If the Brewers win tonight, they will win #91 and St. Louis will lose #71. This clinches at worst a tie with the Cardinals. If the Rockies also lose, that will be loss #71 for them as well and clinches at worst a tie with them as well.

 

While this wouldn't "clinch" anything, it would mean the Brewers would have to lose out and the Cardinals and/or the Rockies win out to tie them.

 

EDIT: JINX T Plush

[KeithStone53151]

Fangraphs has us at 99.7% odds of making playoffs and 16% chance to win the division. I think we are 1 win away from mathematically clinching a wildcard and 2 wins away from clinching the 1st wildcard as long as 1 of those wins is against the cardinals. We would then have tiebreakers for home field against both the Rockies and Cardinals...and would tie either team if they won out from this point.

If the Brewers win tonight, they will win #91 and St. Louis will lose #71. This clinches at worst a tie with the Cardinals. If the Rockies also lose, that will be loss #71 for them as well and clinches at worst a tie with them as well.

 

While this wouldn't "clinch" anything, it would mean the Brewers would have to lose out and the Cardinals and/or the Rockies win out to tie them.

 

EDIT: JINX T Plush

 

The Cubs are a 100% chance to make the playoffs according to fangraphs. I definitely didn't figure out that mathematically the Cubs can still miss the playoffs and I'm also definitely not trying for a reverse jinx.

[pacopete4]

So when is the brewerfan.net World Series party? Do we have a date set yet?

[Warning Track Power]

Fangraphs has us at 99.7% odds of making playoffs and 16% chance to win the division. I think we are 1 win away from mathematically clinching a wildcard and 2 wins away from clinching the 1st wildcard as long as 1 of those wins is against the cardinals. We would then have tiebreakers for home field against both the Rockies and Cardinals...and would tie either team if they won out from this point.

If the Brewers win tonight, they will win #91 and St. Louis will lose #71. This clinches at worst a tie with the Cardinals. If the Rockies also lose, that will be loss #71 for them as well and clinches at worst a tie with them as well.

 

While this wouldn't "clinch" anything, it would mean the Brewers would have to lose out and the Cardinals and/or the Rockies win out to tie them.

 

EDIT: JINX T Plush

 

The Cubs are a 100% chance to make the playoffs according to fangraphs. I definitely didn't figure out that mathematically the Cubs can still miss the playoffs and I'm also definitely not trying for a reverse jinx.

The way I understand it, FanGraphs projections are based on likelihood of making the playoffs. Mathematically the Cubs could still miss the playoffs if:

 

-The Cardinals win out (92-70)

-The Rockies win out (92-70)

-The Brewers win 2/3 or sweep Tigers (92-70 or 93-69)

-The Dodgers win 4/5 or win out (92-70 or 93-69)

-The Cubs lose out (91-71)

 

However, the Cubs could clinch tonight if they win tonight and the Cardinals or Rockies lose.

[dlk9s]

The bottom line is that the magic number is 3 over both the Cardinals and Rockies. A win tonight is a virtual clincher.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

The way I understand it, FanGraphs projections are based on likelihood of making the playoffs. Mathematically the Cubs could still miss the playoffs if:

 

-The Cardinals win out (92-70)

-The Rockies win out (92-70)

-The Brewers win 2/3 or sweep Tigers (92-70 or 93-69)

-The Dodgers win 4/5 or win out (92-70 or 93-69)

-The Cubs lose out (91-71)

 

However, the Cubs could clinch tonight if they win tonight and the Cardinals or Rockies lose.

 

As much fun as it would be to see the Cubs go home for October, I just cannot bring myself to not want the Brewers to stomp the Cardinals tonight.

[Warning Track Power]

 

The way I understand it, FanGraphs projections are based on likelihood of making the playoffs. Mathematically the Cubs could still miss the playoffs if:

 

-The Cardinals win out (92-70)

-The Rockies win out (92-70)

-The Brewers win 2/3 or sweep Tigers (92-70 or 93-69)

-The Dodgers win 4/5 or win out (92-70 or 93-69)

-The Cubs lose out (91-71)

 

However, the Cubs could clinch tonight if they win tonight and the Cardinals or Rockies lose.

 

As much fun as it would be to see the Cubs go home for October, I just cannot bring myself to not want the Brewers to stomp the Cardinals tonight.

 

Amen to that!

 

Then let's root for the Brewers to sweep the rest of the season, win the division, have the Cubs-Cards be an elimination series and the winner lose to the NL West runner-up in the Wild Card.

 

Solving the world's problems over here

[brewerswinNLcentral]

The brewers WS party will be at the Hard Rock pool in Las Vegas or a 4 nite bshamss cruise.

[brewerswinNLcentral]

Tim Dillard will be the guest host with Bob Uecker as the master of ceremonies

[MrTPlush]

I’d hate to be the Cardinals right now. Blown out 12-4, ejections aplenty, three errors, and now out of a postseason spot. Yikes.

 

Brewers will get their chance to clinch under their own power tomorrow and potentially take the divisional lead. Wow

[PeaveyFury]

Waiting for the Cubs game to go final, but worth noting in the meantime that the Cards have had their playoff odds drop to 30%.... ouch. Obviously, we're rooting for them to play well starting after tomorrow, but they're in a major fight just to get in at this point.

[stoutdude04]

I hope the Brewera dont actually pop champagne if they win and stay focused for the remainder of the season.

[Underachiever]

A cubs-dodgers wild card game could still happen.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I hope the Brewera dont actually pop champagne if they win and stay focused for the remainder of the season.

 

I think you can do both.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm pretty sure that the Cardinal loss this evening clinched a playoff spot for the Cubs. As funny as that sounds.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It is possible to, though I don't think in this situation, just a fun hypothetical:

 

1) Play a division tiebreaker game, lose it

2) End up tied for a 2nd wild card, win

3) Go play the wild card game

[YelichPosse]

I'm pretty sure that the Cardinal loss this evening clinched a playoff spot for the Cubs. As funny as that sounds.

 

I believe you are correct sir