2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Fangraphs projections are a 50/50 split of the Steamer & ZIPS models, I believe. The projections do update as the season progresses. Aguilar for instance was projected for an 87 wRC+ before the season per ZIPS & is now projected at 97wRC+ rest of season.

 

It should also be noted that we got 7 votes to win the division & 12 wild card votes in their 2018 staff predictions, which would have placed us in a tie for the WC2 spot with Arizona, so while the projections they host may not have caught up yet many of their writers are buying in ahead of the computers & ultimately I think that gets to what's most important...

 

Everything should be considered. The projection systems are one way to go. Watching as many games yourself as you can is another way to go. Relying solely on one or the other will leave you lacking in important information you wouldn't have otherwise.

 

Also, just saw on MLB Network that in each of the last 17 World Series at least one of the teams was not in the postseason the season prior. Hopefully this year that team is us.

 

All great points. Fangraphs seems to do a good job of recognizing error bars in the posts, chats, and affiliated podcasts they produce, so it is simplistic to take that "projections" page as a "predictions" page. Additionally, I would rather have the FG model than Fivethirtyeight's, which has shown the Brewers' playoff odds DOUBLE over the last week and a half. As nice as that is to see, it feels like pretty serious recency bias to me.

 

This conversation gets to the heart of something I think is really important about analytics and projections. IMO, they still do a much better job of describing a change than predicting future performance. They are getting better at the latter, but the "error bars" SoCal referred to, the confidence intervals, they still tend to be pretty wide. Identifying a 95 percent range is much easier than noting where something will fall within that range.

[KeithStone53151]

https://twitter.com/TedJohnson18/status/999070809149919233

 

I despise the Cubs, and especially their fans, as much as the next guy...but come on now. Stay classy Redbirds...

[Eye Black]

Using Baseball Prospectus’ Playoff Odds the Brewers now lead the National League with a 69.5% chance to make the playoffs. There are four teams in the American League with an 88% percent chance or higher to capture one of the five playoff spots.

 

Here are the teams in each league that currently have a greater than 20% chance to make the playoffs...

 

Baseball Prospectus Playoff Odds (as of May 27):

 

American League

 

[pre]Yankees 98.4%

Astros 98.1%

Red Sox 96.3%

Indians 88.6%

Mariners 41.6%

Angels 34.8%[/pre]

 

National League

 

[pre]Brewers 69.5%

Nationals 67.1%

Cubs 65.6%

Phillies 55.6%

Diamondbacks 54.6%

Cardinals 44.3%

Dodgers 39.3%

Braves 29.9%

Pirates 21.5%[/pre]

[stalton]

Last week ESPN had us 10th overall and 3rd in our division in their power rankings behind the Cubs and Cards. Im guessing we pass the Cards, but I still am guessing we are still behind the Cubs

[MrTPlush]

The Cardinals have Alex Reyes returning to the mound this week (against us). That’s a huge gain for them. In his rehab tour he absolutely destroyed everything and anything.

[KeithStone53151]

Last week ESPN had us 10th overall and 3rd in our division in their power rankings behind the Cubs and Cards. Im guessing we pass the Cards, but I still am guessing we are still behind the Cubs

 

So after being overrated by ESPN and losing 3 of 5 last week, the Cubs move UP from 5 to 4...reeeeeeeally?

 

Fortunately most other publications are less delusional and have the Cubs in the 7-9 range where they belong.

[YelichPosse]

We are getting no respect. I like it that way. Wait til we win the division by 8 games and people still don't believe. Then we sweep the division series... then win the NLCS. Before you know it we take Houston down. They still won't believe but that's ok , whoever laughs last, laughs best.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Next month should at least get the cubs closer to the total number of games played as milwaukee in the standings, but it will come at a cost of only 2 off days for them compared to 5 for the brewers between now and the end of june. I've posted before about their lack of days off in august/Sept, but this is another tough stretch.

 

The cubs offense is mashing, but their starting pitching continues to be uneven and their pen is showing leaks now that they aren't getting extra days' rest due to early season rainouts.

[KeithStone53151]

Next month should at least get the cubs closer to the total number of games played as milwaukee in the standings, but it will come at a cost of only 2 off days for them compared to 5 for the brewers between now and the end of june. I've posted before about their lack of days off in august/Sept, but this is another tough stretch.

 

The cubs offense is mashing, but their starting pitching continues to be uneven and their pen is showing leaks now that they aren't getting extra days' rest due to early season rainouts.

 

Due to early season rainouts, short outings by starting pitching, and an old fool who is a terrible manager and consistently over-manages the bullpen.

[Eye Black]

Well despite going just 4-6 over their last ten games, the Brewers are the first team in the National League to reach 40 wins. They also currently have the highest winning percentage (.597) in the NL.

[Eye Black]

Came across these MLB standings line graphs today and thought it was interesting to see how each division has progressed...

 

 

 

 

 

 

[bork]

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2018/06/20/brandon-morrow-cubs-injury-pants/717293002/

 

Chicago Cubs closer Brandon Morrow can blame his pants – and not anything on the field – for his latest injury.

 

The pitcher was unavailable for Tuesday's doubleheader against the Los Angeles Dodgers due to a back injury he suffered as a result of taking down his pants.

 

At least it didn't happen sneezing. I'll take any help we can get.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers hit the mid-point of the season with their second best record in franchise history through 81 games.

 

Below are the top ten Brewers team records through the season’s first 81 games:

 

2014 (49-32)

2018 (48-33)

1979 (47-34)

2007 (47-34)

1978 (46-35)

1980 (46-35)

1982 (45-35-1)

1981 (45-36)

2008 (44-37)

2011 (44-37)

[MrTPlush]

The AL is an absolute snooze fest. The Red Sox and Yankees might be the biggest race there will be. The other two divisions aren’t much of races at all and the Mariners lead the A’s for the second wild card by SEVEN games. Really any team not holding a spot in the playoffs right now is near .500 or worse except the A’s (44-38)

[StearnsFTW]

Yeah, there's been an 80% chance of the AL playoff teams being the 5 they are for a while.

[Eye Black]

Brewers are the first team in the National League to 50 wins this year and they currently have the best winning percentage in the NL.

 

The National League Division and Wild Card race remain extremely close. Every division in the NL currently has at least three teams at .500 or better.

[JohnBriggs12]

The AL Central is a joke but it hasn't helped that they are playing the NL Central this year.

 

The A's have to be frustrated. They keep winning but can't gain any ground in the wild card race. Normally, being 9 games over .500 around this time of year means you're right in the thick of things.

 

Brewers have a very tough stretch coming out of the All Star break. If they are going to make a deal, they need to make it sooner, rather than later.

[Eye Black]

The A's have to be frustrated. They keep winning but can't gain any ground in the wild card race. Normally, being 9 games over .500 around this time of year means you're right in the thick of things.

The Mariners continue to amaze me. They are now 24 games over .500 with a Run Differential of just +25. That doesn’t seem like it should be possible.

[adambr2]

I would like to see the Cardinals start to fade in the Central and turn it into a 2 way race in the Central with the 2nd place team standing a good chance at a WC.

 

The WC race is going to be interesting this year. I think between the loser of the DBacks/Dodgers race, Brewers/Cubs race, and whoever takes 2nd in the East (Nationals should hang around), it's going to be a very tight wild card race that comes down to the wire with 1 or 2 very good teams on the outside looking in.

 

Big 4 game series coming up at home vs. the Braves. Need to at least split.

[Eye Black]

As we sit here on the Fourth of July before any significant trades have occurred here are the current Baseball Prospectus odds for each team to win the World Series:

 

Astros — 16.1%

Cubs — 13.2%

Yankees — 12.1%

Indians — 11.9%

Dodgers — 10.5%

Red Sox — 6.7%

Brewers — 6.5%

Diamondbacks — 6.0%

Phillies — 4.5%

Braves — 4.4%

Nationals — 2.8%

Mariners — 1.8%

Giants — 1.3%

Cardinals — 0.8%

Rockies — 0.3%

Rays — 0.2%

A’s — 0.2%

Blue Jays — 0.1%

Twins — 0.1%

Tigers — 0.1%

Angels — 0.1%

Rangers — 0.1%

Mets — 0.1%

Pirates — 0.1%

Reds — 0.1%

Orioles — 0.0%

White Sox — 0.0%

Royals — 0.0%

Marlins — 0.0%

Padres — 0.0%

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cards Cubs open the 2nd half with a four day, five game series...that will go a long way to either burying the cards chances at the division or muddling things up even more.

 

Brewers have on of those series with the pirates right before the all star break.

[MrTPlush]

I would like to see the Cardinals start to fade in the Central and turn it into a 2 way race in the Central with the 2nd place team standing a good chance at a WC.

 

The WC race is going to be interesting this year. I think between the loser of the DBacks/Dodgers race, Brewers/Cubs race, and whoever takes 2nd in the East (Nationals should hang around), it's going to be a very tight wild card race that comes down to the wire with 1 or 2 very good teams on the outside looking in.

 

Big 4 game series coming up at home vs. the Braves. Need to at least split.

 

Cardinals are already treading water in the central. The Cubs are a good team and it looks like the Brewers are really good too. The Cardinals aren’t going to get the wins it will take barring some big time moves at the deadline. A lot of national writers are calling for just that, but I’m not so convinced they will do it.

 

That’s a really bold prediction that the wild card race will come down to the three 2nd place finishers. I’d ask for how you got to that conclusion, but I don’t know if I could handle it.

 

We don’t NEED to win any specific series. I never get that talk. It isn’t even an important series. No series is more important than another. Yeah, you are doing yourself favors doing well against good teams, but it doesn’t count anymore than any other win. I mean what happens if we get swept? Pack up the bags for the year?

[lcbj68c]

 

That’s a really bold prediction that the wild card race will come down to the three 2nd place finishers. I’d ask for how you got to that conclusion, but I don’t know if I could handle it.

 

 

Just spit my lemonade across the room. Well played Plush!

[adambr2]

I would like to see the Cardinals start to fade in the Central and turn it into a 2 way race in the Central with the 2nd place team standing a good chance at a WC.

 

The WC race is going to be interesting this year. I think between the loser of the DBacks/Dodgers race, Brewers/Cubs race, and whoever takes 2nd in the East (Nationals should hang around), it's going to be a very tight wild card race that comes down to the wire with 1 or 2 very good teams on the outside looking in.

 

Big 4 game series coming up at home vs. the Braves. Need to at least split.

 

Cardinals are already treading water in the central. The Cubs are a good team and it looks like the Brewers are really good too. The Cardinals aren’t going to get the wins it will take barring some big time moves at the deadline. A lot of national writers are calling for just that, but I’m not so convinced they will do it.

 

That’s a really bold prediction that the wild card race will come down to the three 2nd place finishers. I’d ask for how you got to that conclusion, but I don’t know if I could handle it.

 

We don’t NEED to win any specific series. I never get that talk. It isn’t even an important series. No series is more important than another. Yeah, you are doing yourself favors doing well against good teams, but it doesn’t count anymore than any other win. I mean what happens if we get swept? Pack up the bags for the year?

 

Are you ever able to engage in conversation without snidly implying that the individual you are addressing is completely stupid?

 

It was just last year that both WCs came from the NL West, so no, it's not always a foregone conclusion that all the divisional 2nd place teams are the contenders for the wild card.

 

Yes, divisional series' can be more important than others because you're directly causing a loss for your main competition while also winning yourself. No, they would not pack their bags and go home if they get swept. I will rephrase. "It would be nice to at least split the series against the Braves to stay at the top of the NL and perform well against a potential playoff opponent. It is not the end of the world if they do not."

[Fear The Chorizo]

Crazy how the schedule plays out before the AS break - Cubs still have played 2 fewer games than Milwaukee due to earlier season rainouts, but the Brewers will be playing 3 more games than them between now and the next 11 days due to a bunch of scheduled offdays in early July for Chicago that I'm sure they wish could be sprinkled into August and September instead. It would be huge for the Brewers to play well through next weekend and keep/expand their divisional lead while gaining the advantage of having many more off days during the stretch run. The Cubs will have to play their final 69 games over 74 days, while the Brewers will only have 64 games to play.

 

The Cubs' pitching needed these early July days off due to a recent extended stretch of games, but they still have a ridiculous stretch from mid August through mid September that goes like this:

 

2 game set with Brewers at home

6 game road trip at Pit and Det with 1 off day for travel between those two cities (close distance travel)

7 game homestand with Cincy and Mets

11 game roadtrip with stops in Atl, Philly, Brewers, then back out to DC for the Nats

3 game homestand with Brewers

 

29 games over 30 days (with 23 straight games from Aug 21 - Sept 12), traveling to 9 different destinations when including trips back for homestands. What could make things even more interesting for the Cubs is that they only play 6 games during the 2nd half in stadiums that have essentially no chance of a rainout (@Brewers, @Dbacks). If they run into a bad stretch of weather at any point that leads to rainouts, there's no room left on their schedule aside from adding doubleheaders.