2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[adambr2]

The last series of the year, Cubs/Cardinals is going to be a total catch-22 for us.

 

If we continue to win and threaten the Cubs, the Cardinals are likely to have nothing to play for against the Cubs in the last 3 games and will rest, and the Cubs will still have a lot to play for.

 

If we taper off, the Cardinals will be threatening us and have a lot to play for in that last series, while the Cubs will likely have nothing to play for and will rest.

 

Need Colorado to start putting some heat on the Cards.

[Underachiever]

Okay, Brewers and Cubs finish with 91+ wins. Cards, Dodgers, Rockies all finish 90-72. Dodgers and Rockies need a playoff to see who wins the West. Would the loser then have to play the Cards for the second wild card?

[sveumrules]

Okay, Brewers and Cubs finish with 91+ wins. Cards, Dodgers, Rockies all finish 90-72. Dodgers and Rockies need a playoff to see who wins the West. Would the loser then have to play the Cards for the second wild card?

 

Yes. That would require a tiebreaker for the NL West, then a tiebreaker between the loser & STL for the 2nd WC who would then play whoever ended up as 1st WC between us & Chicago.

[BrewFan130]

I don’t see It changing, it’s a money thing and making all the same shirts with some minor format changes is a lot more profitable then having individualized apparel for 30 different teams.

[BrewFan130]

Don’t forget the scenario where if the Cubs drop enough games allowing the Brewers to slide into 1st that may also leave the Cubs record close enough to the Cards to make it a battle for home field advantage in a WC Playoff.

[benji]

I believe the “tiebreaker” would count as a regular season game. The loser would have one more loss than the Cards. They would be out. Cards in.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[stoutdude04]

I believe the “tiebreaker” would count as a regular season game. The loser would have one more loss than the Cards. They would be out. Cards in.

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

I dont believe so, not if the tiebreak game was for the division.

[obobo55new]

NL records since July 27th:

 

StL 33-18

Atl 32-22

Mil 28-20

ChC 29-21

Col 28-23

LAD 27-23

Was 25-26

Pit 23-24

AZ 23-27

SF 20-29

Phl 20-30

 

This was a point where all 11 teams were at or above .500 and had a shot to make a run. Very few trades had been completed. Thought I'd check and see.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

Woke up hoping the Cubs played at 1 or 3 or something. The waiting for the game is brutal this time of year. I gave up on the division weeks ago but another day that goes our way and it's within grasp. What a great season this has been.

[JohnBriggs12]

Woke up hoping the Cubs played at 1 or 3 or something. The waiting for the game is brutal this time of year. I gave up on the division weeks ago but another day that goes our way and it's within grasp. What a great season this has been.

 

The division has never been out of their grasp. Have you seen the guys the Cubs have been trotting out of their bullpen lately? Even if the Cubs go 5-4 over their last 9 games, Brewers can get even going 6-2. That's not insurmountable by any means.

[shanedog19]

Just keep this close heading into next weekend and anything can happen. The Cubs are not playing at full strength and can be had this year I think. The Cardinals will likely be playing for a wild card berth next weekend and the Tigers will have likely folded up shop by then. The matchups next weekend certainly favor us.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

It's never been out of grasp but the Brewers division probability has been hovering around 10% for a while.

[Ennder]

Its important to note that we don't have to catch the Cubs. We just have to stay close enough that they play for real against the Cardinals. If we still are close enough that we can win the division in the final 3 games it means the Cubs have to play all out in that series against the Cardinals which could help us secure the wild card or home field for the wild card.

[Eye Black]

The Nationals were officially eliminated from the playoffs today (obviously it has been a foregone conclusion for awhile now). They are the team I am probably most curious to see what they do this off-season. They still have plenty of good talent and maybe they will even re-sign Harper, but it feels a little like their recent window of success is closing.

 

For all of the talent the Nationals have had in recent years, it amazes me that even the Brewers appeared in more NLCS this decade (one) than the Nationals (zero).

[DaSpark]

Division still not out of reach, but yesterday was a punch in the gut.

 

As of now 2.5 back with 8 to go for the Cubs and 7 to go for the Brewers. Cubs magic number is at 6. They are likely to win at least 3-4 of their final 8. This means the Brewers likely can only lose 1 or 2 more games to outright win the division.

 

New Line of possibilities:

 

Cubs go 0-8 : Brewers need to go 2-5 to tie, 3-4 to win

Cubs go 1-7 : Brewers need to go 3-4 to tie, 4-3 to win

Cubs go 2-6 : Brewers need to go 4-3 to tie, 5-2 to win

Cubs go 3-5 : Brewers need to go 5-2 to tie, 6-1 to win

Cubs go 4-4 : Brewers need to go 6-1 to tie, 7-0 to win

Cubs go 5-3 : Brewers need to go 7-0 to tie

Cubs go 6-2 : Brewers are eliminated regardless

 

 

I bolded the most likely outcomes in my opinion. I believe the brewers are going to have to finish 5-2 to have any chance at a tie and win 6 or 7 to win the division. One thing is for sure, the Brewers need to either hold or gain ground every day unless they manage to get a lead in the division. Any days that results in any games lost is probably the nail in the coffin.

 

If the race is still on come Thursday that will be one of the biggest days for the Brewers chances. That is the day the Cubs play the pirates at Wrigley while the Brewers are idle. Cubs will probably have to lose that game to really give the Brewers a shot.

 

As someone else stated above, the Brewers at the very least need to keep the pressure on when the Cubs start their series against the Cards. That series begins friday for them. Not only would that help the Brewers get the first WC spot, but it would also not allow the Cubs to set their rotation for the NLDS, which is where the Brewers would face them in the event they win the WC game. So it is a double bonus for the Brewers to still be in it by Friday even if they fail to catch the Cubs.

[JosephC]

NL records since July 27th:

 

StL 33-18

Atl 32-22

Mil 28-20

ChC 29-21

Col 28-23

LAD 27-23

Was 25-26

Pit 23-24

AZ 23-27

SF 20-29

Phl 20-30

 

This was a point where all 11 teams were at or above .500 and had a shot to make a run. Very few trades had been completed. Thought I'd check and see.

 

Still surprised that the Nationals weren't able to put a string of wins together that would have thrown them into the wild card chase. And I'm pretty happy about that. There really isn't very many individual pitchers that worry me in a wild-card setting, but Scherzer definitely would qualify as one. Glad to see the Nationals completely out of the mix.

[MrTPlush]

Colorado Rockies in a must win situation today it feels like. They would drop to 2.5 back in the WC race today with a loss. The same likely in their divisional race as the Dodgers are up early on a garbage Padres team.

 

Our magic number sits at 4 before the Rockies game.

[DaSpark]

Cubs and Brewers both get easy wins, which ultimately gets the Cubs one game closer to clinching. Cubs magic number is now 5. Cubs now have 7 remaining and Brewers 6. New line of possibilities:

 

Cubs go 0-7 : Brewers need to go 2-4 to tie, 3-3 to win

Cubs go 1-6 : Brewers need to go 3-3 to tie, 4-2 to win

Cubs go 2-5 : Brewers need to go 4-2 to tie, 5-1 to win

Cubs go 3-4 : Brewers need to go 5-1 to tie, 6-0 to win

Cubs go 4-3 : Brewers need to go 6-0 to tie

Cubs go 5-2 : Brewers are eliminated regardless

 

Again, likely possibilities highlighted. As you can see, not gaining ground makes things that much more difficult each day. Brewers will likely need to win at least 4 of the remaining 6 to have a chance at a tie and go 5-1 or 6-0 to have any shot at winning division outright.

[jerichoholicninja]

Maybe it's been discussed before but a tie with the Cubs for the division still gives the division to the Cubs. Cubs took the season series and there would be no tiebreaker game since both teams would make the postseason regardless of who wins.

[Outlander]

No it would be played at Wrigley.

[sveumrules]

Maybe it's been discussed before but a tie with the Cubs for the division still gives the division to the Cubs. Cubs took the season series and there would be no tiebreaker game since both teams would make the postseason regardless of who wins.

 

Looks like that changed with the new playoff format...

 

"With, however, the adoption of a second wildcard berth and a wildcard game beginning in the 2012 season, the non-division winner with the best record in the league faces possible elimination on the first day of the postseason. As a result, the tie-breaking rules were changed so that two teams tied for a division championship must play a tie- breaking game even if both teams have already qualified for the postseason."

[jerichoholicninja]

Maybe it's been discussed before but a tie with the Cubs for the division still gives the division to the Cubs. Cubs took the season series and there would be no tiebreaker game since both teams would make the postseason regardless of who wins.

 

Looks like that changed with the new playoff format...

 

"With, however, the adoption of a second wildcard berth and a wildcard game beginning in the 2012 season, the non-division winner with the best record in the league faces possible elimination on the first day of the postseason. As a result, the tie-breaking rules were changed so that two teams tied for a division championship must play a tie- breaking game even if both teams have already qualified for the postseason."

 

That doesn't seem right. So the Brewers could have to play a tie breaker with the Cubs and then if they lose, host the wild card game probably not having their best pitcher against a team that probably will. I know, win the game and you don't have to worry about it but it puts the team with the better record at a disadvantage.

[Eye Black]

Yeah, it has been mentioned that a scenario where the Brewers tied for the division title could end up hurting their playoff chances if they lost at Wrigley on Monday in Game 163. The Monday game would certainly be high stakes with the loser at a disadvantage for Tuesday.

[jerichoholicninja]

Yeah, it has been mentioned that a scenario where the Brewers tied for the division title could end up hurting their playoff chances if they lost at Wrigley on Monday in Game 163. The Monday game would certainly be high stakes with the loser at a disadvantage for Tuesday.

 

Can we just pass on the tie breaker game and go full strength into the wild card game?

[Baldkin]

Maybe it's been discussed before but a tie with the Cubs for the division still gives the division to the Cubs. Cubs took the season series and there would be no tiebreaker game since both teams would make the postseason regardless of who wins.

 

Looks like that changed with the new playoff format...

 

"With, however, the adoption of a second wildcard berth and a wildcard game beginning in the 2012 season, the non-division winner with the best record in the league faces possible elimination on the first day of the postseason. As a result, the tie-breaking rules were changed so that two teams tied for a division championship must play a tie- breaking game even if both teams have already qualified for the postseason."

 

That doesn't seem right. So the Brewers could have to play a tie breaker with the Cubs and then if they lose, host the wild card game probably not having their best pitcher against a team that probably will. I know, win the game and you don't have to worry about it but it puts the team with the better record at a disadvantage.

 

I mean, I'd rather have two chances to win and get to the nlds than one.