2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[topper09er]

I have no interest in a one-game playoff against Kershaw.

 

Right now if the Dodgers dont skip any starts Kershaw will start on the final day of the season, so I would imagine if the Dodgers are playing for the WC2 slot it would be close and they might need to use him and not in the WC game

[obobo55new]

I might have missed stating the point of my hypothetical. Even if they win that Sunday game, there is no guarantee that the Cubs lose and even if they do, it still requires an enormous expenditure to win #163 to finalize a true positive outcome.

 

Do you make that bet when deciding on your Sunday starter? Would you be better off just going with a different option (Woodruff?) and take a see what happens approach? Then if there is a game 163, you can start Anderson, have Chacin for the WC with Miley ready for game 1 of NLDS.

[shanedog19]

I might have missed stating the point of my hypothetical. Even if they win that Sunday game, there is no guarantee that the Cubs lose and even if they do, it still requires an enormous expenditure to win #163 to finalize a true positive outcome.

 

Do you make that bet when deciding on your Sunday starter? Would you be better off just going with a different option (Woodruff?) and take a see what happens approach? Then if there is a game 163, you can start Anderson, have Chacin for the WC with Miley ready for game 1 of NLDS.

 

I think you trot your best possible lineup out each day you are alive for the division. I think when you start getting too cute withholding players is when you get into trouble. Then the blame game starts if you lose game 162 without your best lineup and then also lose 163.

[chuckiehacks]

Trevor Story having possible UCL issues is a killer for the Rockies. Can you imagine Yelich going down right now if we were tied for WC2?

[tmwiese55]

I agree. And the games are all at the same time the last day. Assuming the scores are up on the board, if you see the Cubs are up 6-1 in the 5th maybe you hold off on Hader, Jeffress etc but otherwise you play to win the game.

[coolhandluke121]

 

My point still remains, you have already demonstrated you are not as good as another one of 4 teams who played almost the exact same schedule as you. Boo-hoo if you think that is not fair. Look at it from the first team, they just bested you in a 5 team division over a 162 game season in which everyone plays everyone else in the division 19 times, so from their perspective it would be unfair if you had an equal shot as them in the playoffs.

 

Then why have playoffs at all? Just declare a champion on the last day of the regular season.

[obobo55new]

Interesting nugget...

 

NL Central is currently 55-35 vs the AL Central. Total games over for the division is +40. So half of the positive gains for our division are vs interleague.

 

West vs West is .500, East vs East is +8 for AL.

 

Al West is 112-50 against the AL Central.

[OnaBadger58]

Interesting nugget...

 

NL Central is currently 55-35 vs the AL Central. Total games over for the division is +40. So half of the positive gains for our division are vs interleague.

 

West vs West is .500, East vs East is +8 for AL.

 

Al West is 112-50 against the AL Central.

Heck, even the Indians are 43-23 vs their own division. Their record against the rest of MLB is 40-43. They seem like a really solid team, but maybe the fluff schedule is the reason for that.

[tmwiese55]

Their team is really good though, they should be better than that vs the others. Lindor and Ramirez top MVP level guys. Other solid hitters like Brantley and Encarnacion. A Cy Young level pitcher, maybe even two with what Bauer did this year before being hurt. Plus Clevinger and Carrasco. Their record should be so much better. I'd guess it was their bullpen letting them down a lot early in the year that killed their record.

[topper09er]

 

My point still remains, you have already demonstrated you are not as good as another one of 4 teams who played almost the exact same schedule as you. Boo-hoo if you think that is not fair. Look at it from the first team, they just bested you in a 5 team division over a 162 game season in which everyone plays everyone else in the division 19 times, so from their perspective it would be unfair if you had an equal shot as them in the playoffs.

 

Then why have playoffs at all? Just declare a champion on the last day of the regular season.

 

Because there is an unbalanced schedule weighed heavily towards division play. That is why finishing second in your division gives you nothing to complain about in my opinion. Plus playoffs are more exciting for the fans, better than college football where now the Badgers entire season is pointless and just a quest for the best consolation prize they can manage.

[Ennder]

Trevor Story has a possible UCL tear, that could be really bad news for the Rockies.

[OnaBadger58]

Their team is really good though, they should be better than that vs the others. Lindor and Ramirez top MVP level guys. Other solid hitters like Brantley and Encarnacion. A Cy Young level pitcher, maybe even two with what Bauer did this year before being hurt. Plus Clevinger and Carrasco. Their record should be so much better. I'd guess it was their bullpen letting them down a lot early in the year that killed their record.

I agree they have stacked team, but maybe some of their stats are inflated due to playing the White Sox, Twins, Tigers, and Royals. Plus this "Cy Young" is giving up bombs to Suter.

[StearnsFTW]

what a great time to be in vegas for the Oct 2 game

 

I agree. Hopefully you enjoy the Cardinals/Cubs game.

[Eye Black]

Hypothetical...

 

Last game of the year. Brewers are 1 back of Cubs for division going into start of day. Win (& Cubs loss) and you are forced to pitch Chacin in game 163. Miley has pitched on Friday game and if you lose that 163rd game, would not be available for the WC game.

 

1) Do you start Anderson? He would then be unavailable for 163, WC & 1st game of NLDS

 

2) If so, what is the plan for the WC game? No Chacin, no Miley, no Anderson...does Davies go?

 

3) How hard can you go to win the Sunday game? Knowing the best case scenario forces you to use the pen on Sunday and Monday and then the true elimination game on Tuesday if you lose 163 in Wrigley.

 

The benefit of winning the division on Monday is HUGE, but the downside of adding an extra game into that window make it a difficult decision...

 

I agree that you have to try to do what you can to claw your way to the division championship, but it is one of those cases where not being put in this situation (i.e. the Cubs clinching the division prior to the final day of the season) may end up being a blessing in disguise versus this scenario. There is so much that has to go right (both outcomes on Sunday with Brewers win/Cubs loss followed by beating the Cubs in Wrigley on Monday. If any of those things go the wrong way you have likely put yourself at a disadvantage heading into the Wild Card game.

[young guns]

Hypothetical...

 

Last game of the year. Brewers are 1 back of Cubs for division going into start of day. Win (& Cubs loss) and you are forced to pitch Chacin in game 163. Miley has pitched on Friday game and if you lose that 163rd game, would not be available for the WC game.

 

1) Do you start Anderson? He would then be unavailable for 163, WC & 1st game of NLDS

 

2) If so, what is the plan for the WC game? No Chacin, no Miley, no Anderson...does Davies go?

 

3) How hard can you go to win the Sunday game? Knowing the best case scenario forces you to use the pen on Sunday and Monday and then the true elimination game on Tuesday if you lose 163 in Wrigley.

 

The benefit of winning the division on Monday is HUGE, but the downside of adding an extra game into that window make it a difficult decision...

In this situation it would be such a shame if there was some sort of plumbing issue or something that caused a 3 or so hour delay to the start of our game. that's legal right?

[brewmann04]

I would not pitch Chase at all in a must win game.

[DaSpark]

Well, things just got much more difficult in the division.

[Ennder]

Well, things just got much more difficult in the division.

 

We are more likely to win the division than miss the playoffs still. Both chances are really small though, 3% vs 4%.

[Eye Black]

While nothing is a given, and the team needs to continue to win, from a scoreboard-watching perspective, who do we want to be WC2? I think the best scenario is that the Dodgers win the West. I have no interest in a one-game playoff against Kershaw. That leaves the Cardinals and Rockies. I'm guessing Colorado would throw Freeland and St. Louis would go with maybe Flaherty or Mikolas. Or we'll lost to Wainwright and this board will implode.

 

Admittedly, I haven't looked at how rotations line up, but I think I'd rather face St. Louis.

 

The Brewers have Chacín lined up to pitch the Wild Card, but an off day next week Thursday makes it a little more curious what they will actually do. Does he pitch next Wednesday after just three days rest, or pitch the following Friday and then pitch the Wild Card game on just 3 days rest?

 

Looking at the current pitching rotation schedules for other possible Wild Card contenders the starters currently lined up to possibly pitch in the Wild Card game appear to be...

 

Brewers: Jhoulys Chacín, Zach Davies, Gio Gonzalez

Cardinals: Jack Flaherty, John Gant, Adam Wainwright

Dodgers: Walker Buehler, Rich Hill, Ross Stripling

Rockies: Kyle Freeland, German Marquez, Antonio Senzatela

 

Obviously teams could try to manipulate their rotations still, but for teams still fighting for a playoff spot it might be a difficult decision to jockey around their top starters at this point.

[MrTPlush]

Well with the division all but lost lets hold onto this wild card lead and have that game at home. I don't mind either opponent...but I would prefer the Cardinals for whatever reason over the Rockies.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well with the division all but lost lets hold onto this wild card lead and have that game at home. I don't mind either opponent...but I would prefer the Cardinals for whatever reason over the Rockies.

 

At this point, I think I'd rather face an ace like Kershaw or Freeland. Frankly the Brewers offense has looked better this year against good pitchers than against scrubs like Lorenzen.*

 

 

(* I know this probably isn't the case, but it sure as heck seems that way.)

[Fear The Chorizo]

Might not be the easiest of routes, but as a Brewers' fan how sweet would it potentially be for this playoff run to the WS - exactly how it is currently set up?

 

Brewers eliminate the Cards at Miller Park in the WC game

Brewers take on the Cubs and beat them in the NLDS 3 games to 1, clinching it at Miller Park in game 4

Brewers find a way to win a series against the Dodgers (I have my doubts on the Braves being up to the postseason task against LA)

 

Believe me I get how much it would stink to lose to either the Cards or Cubs, but I almost feel like the upside of beating them in the playoffs is too good to pass up.

[Outlander]

It would be so disappointing not getting a home playoff game, those three upcoming games against the Cardinals loom large. They need to take care of business against the Reds and Pirates before hand though.

[tmwiese55]

Might not be the easiest of routes, but as a Brewers' fan how sweet would it potentially be for this playoff run to the WS - exactly how it is currently set up?

 

Brewers eliminate the Cards at Miller Park in the WC game

Brewers take on the Cubs and beat them in the NLDS 3 games to 1, clinching it at Miller Park in game 4

Brewers find a way to win a series against the Dodgers (I have my doubts on the Braves being up to the postseason task against LA)

 

Believe me I get how much it would stink to lose to either the Cards or Cubs, but I almost feel like the upside of beating them in the playoffs is too good to pass up.

 

Yea it would be a nice run if that were the case to be able to stick it to the top two rivals. And for me if they could beat Boston in the WS since I just hate them too. Risk/reward I guess as it also stings more if you lose to them.

 

think how impressive what OAK's run would have to be. NYY in WC, Bos in ALDS, Houston/Cle in ALCS, whoever in WS but say it's big marget LA/CHI. Almost like what UW almost pulled off beating AZ, UNC, Kentucky, then almost Duke. 4 of the top 5 programs(only missing Kansas).

[82brewcrew82]

Well, things just got much more difficult in the division.

 

We are more likely to win the division than miss the playoffs still. Both chances are really small though, 3% vs 4%.

I believe those odds assume we don't lose 3 of 5 to bad teams?