2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[DuWayne Steurer]

I'd like to see them lock up the WC1 with 2 or 3 days left in the season, so they can sit on Burnes, Hader, Jeffres, and Knebel and make sure they are all well rested for a WC game. That would (obviously, I suppose) be the truly ideal scenario. Get 2 times through the order with your starter (or even just 3 innings) and let that bullpen shut down the game for you.

[MrTPlush]

I'd like to see them lock up the WC1 with 2 or 3 days left in the season, so they can sit on Burnes, Hader, Jeffres, and Knebel and make sure they are all well rested for a WC game. That would (obviously, I suppose) be the truly ideal scenario. Get 2 times through the order with your starter (or even just 3 innings) and let that bullpen shut down the game for you.

 

Problem is if that happens and we are still within 3 games of the division you can't really sit them.

[MrTPlush]

I think the division is gone. The Cubs would probably have to really fall off for us to pick up 3ish games with 12 to play.

 

The realistic goal is getting the WC at home. I think we are well-built for that game with our pen. You need 4 innings from a starter and you're fine. Could do something unorthodox too like let Burnes start or something. I like our chances in that game against anybody.

 

Cubs go 1-2 vs. the D Backs and we sweep the Reds we are suddenly .5 back with 9 to play. It is not that hard to fathom getting back into it. That is a very possible scenario.

 

Then you are either one back on Friday or the division is tied...

[tmwiese55]

I'd like to see them lock up the WC1 with 2 or 3 days left in the season, so they can sit on Burnes, Hader, Jeffres, and Knebel and make sure they are all well rested for a WC game. That would (obviously, I suppose) be the truly ideal scenario. Get 2 times through the order with your starter (or even just 3 innings) and let that bullpen shut down the game for you.

 

Problem is if that happens and we are still within 3 games of the division you can't really sit them.

 

You have a for sure off day on Monday, barring some tie break game of course, everyone should be fully rested and ready to go. Especially if just Sunday is a day to rest them all. That's at least 2 full days off for all, 3 or more for others. If you go too far beyond that you're into the much hated rust area that so many folks here expressed hatred for during that Marlins series.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't think that's as likely as it sounds as paper. We get a sweep and they lose a series and we are still trailing them. That's IF that unlikely scenario occurs.

 

Right now the Cubs are ~86% to win Central. We are 13%.

[MrTPlush]

I'd like to see them lock up the WC1 with 2 or 3 days left in the season, so they can sit on Burnes, Hader, Jeffres, and Knebel and make sure they are all well rested for a WC game. That would (obviously, I suppose) be the truly ideal scenario. Get 2 times through the order with your starter (or even just 3 innings) and let that bullpen shut down the game for you.

 

Problem is if that happens and we are still within 3 games of the division you can't really sit them.

 

You have a for sure off day on Monday, barring some tie break game of course, everyone should be fully rested and ready to go. Especially if just Sunday is a day to rest them all. That's at least 2 full days off for all, 3 or more for others. If you go too far beyond that you're into the much hated rust area that so many folks here expressed hatred for during that Marlins series.

 

Right. Baring something amazing (or terrible) we shouldn't have anything to play for the last day either. That is two days rest.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I don't think that's as likely as it sounds as paper. We get a sweep and they lose a series and we are still trailing them. That's IF that unlikely scenario occurs.

 

Right now the Cubs are ~86% to win Central. We are 13%.

 

It isn't likely. But I would say it is also premature to write it off as well. Things will be a lot more clear by Friday I think. If the Cubs go to Arizona and take care of business, they will likely take the Central. But the Cubs are not exactly tearing it up, either.

[topper09er]

 

I would say you are punished for not winning your division, period. Why should you be able to complete equally for a the best of 30 team title when you couldn't even win the best of 5 team title.

 

Because not all 5 team groups within that larger group of 30 are created equally. The AL East and West may have three 90 win teams each, while the Central may have one team over 75.

 

I could turn that around and ask why you should be rewarded for the simple luck of being grouped with inferior teams.

 

My point still remains, you have already demonstrated you are not as good as another one of 4 teams who played almost the exact same schedule as you. Boo-hoo if you think that is not fair. Look at it from the first team, they just bested you in a 5 team division over a 162 game season in which everyone plays everyone else in the division 19 times, so from their perspective it would be unfair if you had an equal shot as them in the playoffs.

[Jopal78]

With a one game, winner take all event, conventional baseball wisdom of having a starting pitcher throw multiple innings to start the game doesn't make sense. The team should just open up with their best pitchers and then go through all the killers in the bullpen and bridge the gap to Hader by throwing Chacin and/or Miley if needed. If the game goes to extra innings, Chase Anderson, Zach Davies, Junior Guerra and Gio Gonzalez would all be available to throw.

 

They should really make the Wild Card round a three game series, with the top wild card team hosting the entire series. That way the Division Series could still start on the first Friday of October maybe even the first Thursday. The current system favors seems to favor the division winners which isn't unfair. However, a team like the Brewers has spent a significant amount of capital in terms of minor league talent to get where they are and to have it all be over in a one game playoff seems a disincentive to smaller market clubs that must rely on their minor league pipeline to stay competitive.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

IDK how I feel about throwing 7 pitchers or something to get through a winner take all game. IDK if the data even exists to determine this, but at some point it feels like you are increasing the chances of needlessly taking somebody out and putting in somebody who's having an "off" day.

[istanbultaye]

I think you make a good point, and there seems like there would be a tipping point of depth quality in the bullpen along with quality bench depth for pinch hitting that would determine whether it is a positive or a negative. In a 1 game playoff though, there are no guarantees, as even an ace can have an off day and get blown up in any given day. Having several different pitchers (opposing team can't get used to them), with good stuff going max effort for just a couple innings each probably is a slightly better route to go with.

 

The Brewers are probably at the tipping point that it would be slightly better in a given day to keep hitters from seeing the same pitcher multiple times, and have de facto DH. That said, I think going with Chacin to start the game even if you use him for just a short start until at least the first PH chance, as I would trust him more than the B team, so that would give you a few less innings to cover with BP pitchers who aren't Burnes/Hader/Jeffress. With a short start he could be available for a Game 2 start in the next series as well possibly.

[Eye Black]

I'd like to see them lock up the WC1 with 2 or 3 days left in the season, so they can sit on Burnes, Hader, Jeffres, and Knebel and make sure they are all well rested for a WC game. That would (obviously, I suppose) be the truly ideal scenario. Get 2 times through the order with your starter (or even just 3 innings) and let that bullpen shut down the game for you.

While I hold out a slight hope they can get to the final series of the season with an outside chance at the division title, I think the most realistic “best case scenario” is this idea of clinching the top Wild Card spot with enough games to have an extra day or two to get the bullpen pieces rested. The NL Wild Card Game is scheduled for Tuesday, October 2nd, so ideally they would have their playoff position solidified by that prior Friday or Saturday as RoCoBrewfan mentions.

[brewmann04]

what a great time to be in vegas for the Oct 2 game

[Ennder]

I think our magic number is 8 at this point? Not bad with 11 games to go and 2 teams chasing us but both needing to catch us to knock us out.

[djd1228]

I think our magic number is 8 at this point? Not bad with 11 games to go and 2 teams chasing us but both needing to catch us to knock us out.

 

It's at 9 against the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Rockies (given the Dodgers close out their 8 run lead). With that math, if we win 8 of our last 11 we're in! (guaranteed at least 1 lower with 2 more games with COL and LA playing each other)

 

https://www.playoffmagic.com/mlb/

[Eye Black]

If the Cubs finish 6-6 they will get to 94 wins. For the Brewers to get to 94 wins they will need to finish 8-3. I think both are certainly possible, but I don’t think it is likely the Cubs do much worse or the Brewers doing much better than those finishes.

 

If both teams finish with identical records to tie for the N.L. Central championship it is my understanding they would play a game 163 on the Monday (Oct. 1) at Wrigley Field to determine who moves on to the Division Series (with the loser going to the WC), correct?

[DaSpark]

If the Cubs finish 6-6 they will get to 94 wins. For the Brewers to get to 94 wins they will need to finish 8-3. I think both are certainly possible, but I don’t think it is likely the Cubs do much worse or the Brewers doing much better than those finishes.

 

If both teams finish with identical records to tie for the N.L. Central championship it is my understanding they would play a game 163 on the Monday (Oct. 1) at Wrigley Field to determine who moves on to the Division Series (with the loser going to the WC), correct?

 

You are correct. If game 163 is needed it will be at Wrigley because they won the season head-to-head match-ups and there are no games remaining between us. So Wrigley it is.

 

I think the only real chance at a tie or the Brewers winning the division though is if the Cubs play sub .500 ball in their final 12.

 

Below just a simple spread on what has to happen depending on how many wins the Cubs get in their final 12. You can see things start to get extremely tough if they win more than 6 games. If they go .500 and win 6 it's doable, but the Brewers have to continue to play excellent ball. Anything under .500 for the Cubs starts to make things very doable for the Brewers, even if they blow a few games.

 

If the Cubs win 3 then .... never mind, they aren't going to win less than 4 games.

If the Cubs win 4 then the Brewers have to go 6-5 just to tie and 7-4 to win.

If the Cubs win 5 then the Brewers have to go 7-4 just to tie and 8-3 to win.

If the Cubs win 6 then the Brewers have to go 8-3 just to tie and 9-2 to win.

If the Cubs win 7 then the Brewers have to go 9-2 just to tie and 10-1 to win.

If the Cubs win 8 then the Brewers have to go 10-1 just to tie and 11-0 to win.

If the Cubs win 9 then the Brewers have to go 11-0 just to tie.

[stoutdude04]

If nothing else, it is forcing them to continue to pitch their starters and not have an opportunity to set up their pitching staff. Up to this point anyways.

[chuckiehacks]

While nothing is a given, and the team needs to continue to win, from a scoreboard-watching perspective, who do we want to be WC2? I think the best scenario is that the Dodgers win the West. I have no interest in a one-game playoff against Kershaw. That leaves the Cardinals and Rockies. I'm guessing Colorado would throw Freeland and St. Louis would go with maybe Flaherty or Mikolas. Or we'll lost to Wainwright and this board will implode.

 

Admittedly, I haven't looked at how rotations line up, but I think I'd rather face St. Louis.

[shanedog19]

While nothing is a given, and the team needs to continue to win, from a scoreboard-watching perspective, who do we want to be WC2? I think the best scenario is that the Dodgers win the West. I have no interest in a one-game playoff against Kershaw. That leaves the Cardinals and Rockies. I'm guessing Colorado would throw Freeland and St. Louis would go with maybe Flaherty or Mikolas. Or we'll lost to Wainwright and this board will implode.

 

Admittedly, I haven't looked at how rotations line up, but I think I'd rather face St. Louis.

 

I'd much rather face the Rockies at this point. They are struggling mightily to score runs and are on a downward trend in general. I think I heard they have only scored runs in 2 of the past 36 innings! The crew needs to keep the foot on the gas pedal and do everything they can to host that WC game.

 

I think to have any chance of catching the Cubs, we are going to need to go something like 9-2 to finish out the season. That means taking the next two against the Reds, go 2-1 against Pirates and Cardinals, and sweep the Tigers. Probably not likely, but it still seems like there is a small window to catch the Cubs.

[Fear The Chorizo]

It would be nice to see the Dbacks win the last two against the Cubs and win the series, but they seem to have their bags packed on this season. I feel like the one game the Cubs need to make up on the schedule to be even with the Brewers in terms of # of games played needs to be a loss in order for the Brewers to have a puncher's chance of catching or surpassing them for the division. Assuming that, finishing with 2 or more wins than the Cubs over the other 11 games is realistic considering the remaining competition.

[obobo55new]

Hypothetical...

 

Last game of the year. Brewers are 1 back of Cubs for division going into start of day. Win (& Cubs loss) and you are forced to pitch Chacin in game 163. Miley has pitched on Friday game and if you lose that 163rd game, would not be available for the WC game.

 

1) Do you start Anderson? He would then be unavailable for 163, WC & 1st game of NLDS

 

2) If so, what is the plan for the WC game? No Chacin, no Miley, no Anderson...does Davies go?

 

3) How hard can you go to win the Sunday game? Knowing the best case scenario forces you to use the pen on Sunday and Monday and then the true elimination game on Tuesday if you lose 163 in Wrigley.

 

The benefit of winning the division on Monday is HUGE, but the downside of adding an extra game into that window make it a difficult decision...

[pitchleague]

Playing a slight devil's advocate here, but why NOT play the Dodgers in the Wild-card game?

 

We've played them well this year and Kershaw has a history (yeah, yeah, small sample size) of fizzling in the playoffs, for whatever reason.

 

On PAPER, sure, I understand why you wouldn't want to play them. But to be the best, sometimes you have to beat the best.

 

Oh, and we seem to have trouble with the Rockies at home. Or at least it seems like that.

 

Anyway, carry on and go Brewers!

[topper09er]

Hypothetical...

 

Last game of the year. Brewers are 1 back of Cubs for division going into start of day. Win (& Cubs loss) and you are forced to pitch Chacin in game 163. Miley has pitched on Friday game and if you lose that 163rd game, would not be available for the WC game.

 

1) Do you start Anderson? He would then be unavailable for 163, WC & 1st game of NLDS

 

2) If so, what is the plan for the WC game? No Chacin, no Miley, no Anderson...does Davies go?

 

3) How hard can you go to win the Sunday game? Knowing the best case scenario forces you to use the pen on Sunday and Monday and then the true elimination game on Tuesday if you lose 163 in Wrigley.

 

The benefit of winning the division on Monday is HUGE, but the downside of adding an extra game into that window make it a difficult decision...

 

I don't care who starts, I don't think we have a clear cut #1 right now. I would be more concerned about using Hader for 3 innings but losing and then not having him for the WC game.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

I don't care who we play, I guess I'd say LAD who is I'd least like to see. Kershaw is most likely to throw a CG shutout, but it's baseball. Anyone can do that on the right night and we could light him up for 9 runs.