2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[brewcrewdue80]

The NL Central standings with 20 days remaining in September...

 

 

 

Can someone explain what we should take from the run differential? We have so so offense and very good pitching? We've won a lot of close games and thus have some luck factoring in?

 

My biggest take is having a very good bullpen, and a number of clutch winning games late. If there were a way to post run differential from 7th inning or later it's probably in the top 3 of baseball.

[coolhandluke121]

The NL Central standings with 20 days remaining in September...

 

 

 

Can someone explain what we should take from the run differential? We have so so offense and very good pitching? We've won a lot of close games and thus have some luck factoring in?

 

It's already been mentioned how many times the Brewers have pitched position players, which is a factor. I think a bigger factor is that the Brewers are built to win close games. There's no luck involved in the systematic way they've used their starters and bullpen; it was clearly intentional all along. A good bullpen, a versatile bench, and great defense is how you win more than your fair share of close games and beat your run differential.

 

 

Run differential is usually a very good predictor of future success. So is OBP, but that doesn't mean you can't dig into other variables like BABIP and explain why OBP isn't the best indicator of future success in certain cases. Same goes for winning with a poor run differential. The Brewers are doing a great job playing the "Win Probability Added" game and consistently beating their run differential. That's no accident.

[tmwiese55]

Very good post Luke.

[shanedog19]

It sure is starting to look like the two wild card teams will be the Brewers and Cardinals. Not sure how I feel about that.

[pacopete4]

It sure is starting to look like the two wild card teams will be the Brewers and Cardinals. Not sure how I feel about that.

 

Feel excited! I know I am. Can’t wait!

[Boomer5]

The NL Central standings with 20 days remaining in September...

 

 

 

Can someone explain what we should take from the run differential? We have so so offense and very good pitching? We've won a lot of close games and thus have some luck factoring in?

 

It means we have a great game day manager.

[Patrick425]

Brewers current magic number to make the playoffs is 13

 

Edit: Sorry, just went back a page or two to look at posts and it appears someone has already been updating the magic number.

[KeithStone53151]

Brewers win today, 1 back from the Cubs with 15 and 17 games to play. The Cubs do still have a couple tough series. Even at 3 I wouldn't say I've lost hope...but man 1 game back is so much better than 3 back.

[coolhandluke121]

Really pathetic Cubs article on ESPN today. Don't get me wrong; 30 straight games is a noteworthy story, but the way it's presented feeds into the ridiculous whining victim complex and the "I don't want to make excuses, but..." excuse-making. The only reason the Cubs are in first place at all is because the Brewers played 21 games in 20 days right before the break and lost 7 of the last 8; where was a similar article then or a mention of it in this article? All the news at the time was about how the Brewers were wannabes and would just collapse again like they did last year. Then they played 17 in a row right after the break, with no games against teams more than a game or two under .500.

 

And all that was without the benefit of September call-ups, which the Cubs have now to mitigate the damage. I don't normally subscribe to the "I hate the Cubs and Cardinals no matter what" philosophy, but combine all the whining this year with the disgraceful cancelled game last year and they're really getting on my nerves. I haven't wanted to destroy a team this badly since Madison Bumgarner hit Ryan Braun on purpose and Jonathan Schoop stuffed a grand salami up his butt.

[KeithStone53151]

Really pathetic Cubs article on ESPN today. Don't get me wrong; 30 straight games is a noteworthy story, but the way it's presented feeds into the ridiculous whining victim complex and the "I don't want to make excuses, but..." excuse-making. The only reason the Cubs are in first place at all is because the Brewers played 21 games in 20 days right before the break and lost 7 of the last 8; where was a similar article then or a mention of it in this article? All the news at the time was about how the Brewers were wannabes and would just collapse again like they did last year. Then they played 17 in a row right after the break, with no games against teams more than a game or two under .500.

 

And all that was without the benefit of September call-ups, which the Cubs have now to mitigate the damage. I don't normally subscribe to the "I hate the Cubs and Cardinals no matter what" philosophy, but combine all the whining this year with the disgraceful cancelled game last year and they're really getting on my nerves. I haven't wanted to destroy a team this badly since Madison Bumgarner hit Ryan Braun on purpose and Jonathan Schoop stuffed a grand salami up his butt.

 

*Starts slow clap...

[sveumrules]

There is an old idea that every team is going to win 54 games & every team is going to lose 54 games no matter what, so it's what happens in the other 54 games that decides your season.

 

I thought I would try to apply this idea to the Brewers season so far to see how much it lines up.

 

I came up with 37 Wins consisting of 11 shutouts pitched plus 26 games where we won by 4 or more runs.

 

I then came up with 38 Losses consisting of 21 games we scored 1 or less runs plus 17 games where we lost by 4 or more runs.

 

That leaves a record of 46-25 in the "up for grab" games decided by three or less runs.

[tmwiese55]

Great post CHL. Pretty much nails it on the head

[StearnsFTW]

It sure is starting to look like the two wild card teams will be the Brewers and Cardinals. Not sure how I feel about that.

 

Feel excited! I know I am. Can’t wait!

 

Yeap. Better than the Cardinals and any other team!

[shanedog19]

Would be great to get tonight's game and keep the pressure on the Cubs. They have a pretty tough schedule down the stretch, including three games to end the season with the Cards. It would be great to keep the division race alive heading into the final weekend and see what happens.

[KeithStone53151]

Would be great to get tonight's game and keep the pressure on the Cubs. They have a pretty tough schedule down the stretch, including three games to end the season with the Cards. It would be great to keep the division race alive heading into the final weekend and see what happens.

 

Man would I feel slimy all over if I had to root for Molina and the Cardinals.

[82brewcrew82]

A loss tonight would put them four back in the loss column. That would be a difficult pull for the division barring a complete Cub collapse. I'll root for the Cardinals all day long if it means we beat the Cubs for the division.

[coolhandluke121]

Great post CHL. Pretty much nails it on the head

 

Thank you.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

IDK how others feel about it, but I really dislike the expanded wild card. I know we could be the 5th team in, but I didn't like it from the start. It just feels unfair to the 4th team in the event they lose the game, especially if their record is much better than #5.

 

My main reason for wanting the division is that I'm hoping the Cubs lose that game so we don't have to play them in the first round. I really also don't like how they made division matchups possible for the NLDS.

[Warning Track Power]

What are everyone's thoughts about record deciding home field?

 

Let's say for the sake of argument, the Cubs finish in second in the NL Central behind the Brewers but have the second best record in the NL. The Cubs win the Wild Card game but have a better record than the NL West and NL East division winners. Why shouldn't they have home field advantage in the Division Series? No it doesn't diminish the NL West and East division winners as they still made the playoffs. I think record should count for something and it's entirely possible that the 3rd place team in the NL Central has the 3rd best record in the NL.

[KeithStone53151]

IDK how others feel about it, but I really dislike the expanded wild card. I know we could be the 5th team in, but I didn't like it from the start. It just feels unfair to the 4th team in the event they lose the game, especially if their record is much better than #5.

 

My main reason for wanting the division is that I'm hoping the Cubs lose that game so we don't have to play them in the first round. I really also don't like how they made division matchups possible for the NLDS.

 

I tend to agree. Theoretically if MLB expands to 32 teams, they could reshuffle to 4 divisions of 4 teams like football and add a 6th playoff team in each league. Have the 2 wildcards play the 2 worst division teams in a 3 game series, the 2 best records advance to the DS. That wouldn't take overly long. First game at the wildcard teams stadium, travel day, potentially 2 games at the division winner. That's 6 days in between games for the 2 division winners instead of the current 4...I feel like that solves lot of problems. Best records get more of a reward, and eliminates the all or nothing 1 game situation. Might have to shave a few regular season games off the schedule to make that work.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

All sports should let the division winners in the playoffs, but the playoffs should then be re-seeded from there. It's stupid that it's never done that way IMO

[owbc]

The loss of wild cards would be very bad for small market teams like the Brewers. Imagine being placed in a 4-team division with CHC and STL where only the winner makes the playoffs. Not good.

 

A system with first round byes punishes teams for winning their division if their record isn't good enough. That only works with a perfectly balanced schedule which will never happen.

[coolhandluke121]

What are everyone's thoughts about record deciding home field?

 

Let's say for the sake of argument, the Cubs finish in second in the NL Central behind the Brewers but have the second best record in the NL. The Cubs win the Wild Card game but have a better record than the NL West and NL East division winners. Why shouldn't they have home field advantage in the Division Series? No it doesn't diminish the NL West and East division winners as they still made the playoffs. I think record should count for something and it's entirely possible that the 3rd place team in the NL Central has the 3rd best record in the NL.

 

They should. Not only did they have a better record, but they also probably played a tougher schedule and had to win a wild card game where anything can happen. I don't really like the current system because a tough division is a double whammy.

 

I think 4 teams was the right amount. I think baseball kind of sold out by adding the wild card game. It keeps a few teams interested later in the season and probably generates a little extra revenue, but I don't think it's worth compromising the integrity of their regular season. If anything, they should be making the regular season more fair by reducing dramatic strength of schedule discrepancies.

 

Going back to 2 divisions might help. Division winners and the best runner-up automatically get a series. Next 2 teams play for the wild card. However, the current divisions make much more geographic sense.

[istanbultaye]

I think I'd just go with expanding the wildcard play in to a 3 game series so that it's slightly less up to luck, but on the other hand that would but the wildcard winner in a bit more of a disadvantage from fatigue than they already have from 1 extra game.

[obobo55new]

If they add 2 teams, I would argue for 4 divisions rather than 8. Too crazy to have a 4 team division with Yanks/Sox and 2 teams that never win.

 

Division winner and 2 wild cards for each division. #1 wild card from each division host #2 from the other for 3 games (#2 gets no home games unless they advance).

 

Division 1- Yankees, RedSox, Baltimore, Toronto, Mets, Phillies, Nats, Montreal?

Division 2- Braves, Marlins, Rays, Astros, Rangers, Cards, Royals, Charlotte/Nashville?

Division 3- Brewers, Twins, Cubs, WhiteSox, Tigers, Indians, Reds, Pirates

Division 4- Dbacks, Rockies, Mariners, Dodgers, Angels, A's, Padres, Giants

 

DH is everywhere, no leagues per se, just put division 1 vs 4 and 2 vs 3 in a rotation going forward (year two- 1v3, 2v4). Play your aligned playoff division 6 times (48 games). Play 8 3-game crossover (interleague) series split between the 2 divisions (24). That leaves 90 divisional games (6*13, 1*12).