2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cubs with another hardfought 10 inning win tonight - Nats had a shot to tie or win it during various AB's in the 10th with Harper, Soto, and Reynolds - they went K, K, and lineout to center with a Rendon single sprinkled in between.

 

bully for them, and it stinks the Nats didn't find a way to get a W on a Strasburg start when the Brewers were idle. On the silver lining side of things, Cubs used basically all of their reliable relievers in tonight's game, so guys like Strop, Cishek, and Wilson are being asked to extend themselves a lot. You've got to hope that at some point this grind is going to weaken their bullpen enough to cost them a few games they should have otherwise won or at a minimum keep them on fumes when the Brewers face them again in a few days - if it doesn't you tip your cap and go win a wild card spot.

[MrTPlush]

One goal for the next week, do better than the Dodgers and D Backs. If we do that our postseason ticket will be almost assured. The Dodgers are back 2.5 games and the D Backs are 3.5 games back.

 

After the Cubs series only 15 games will remain for us, 16 games for the Dodgers, and 16 games for the D Backs. Lets say we gain a game on each of those teams. If we are nice and assume they both win on the 13th (both road games against postseason hopefuls) this is what they will need to do just to catch us.

 

Brewers: 7-8 or 8-7

Dodgers: 10-6 or 11-5

D Backs: 11-5 or 12-4

 

And it isn't going to be easy for these teams to dominate the rest of their schedule without helping us at the same time. The Dodgers have to play all of the Cardinals, Rockies, and Arizona still...and obviously Arizona still faces their two divisional opponents too. Not many scenarios where we go around .500 and don't nab one of those two spots.

[DaSpark]

Cubs with another hardfought 10 inning win tonight - Nats had a shot to tie or win it during various AB's in the 10th with Harper, Soto, and Reynolds - they went K, K, and lineout to center with a Rendon single sprinkled in between.

 

bully for them, and it stinks the Nats didn't find a way to get a W on a Strasburg start when the Brewers were idle. On the silver lining side of things, Cubs used basically all of their reliable relievers in tonight's game, so guys like Strop, Cishek, and Wilson are being asked to extend themselves a lot. You've got to hope that at some point this grind is going to weaken their bullpen enough to cost them a few games they should have otherwise won or at a minimum keep them on fumes when the Brewers face them again in a few days - if it doesn't you tip your cap and go win a wild card spot.

 

Eh, the way I see it is the Cubs, on paper, should have lost last night being a Strasburg start. So even if they do lose a game due to a weak bullpen it just evens out. Also, I don't think they are really being asked to extend themselves that much. Most of those guys only threw a handful of pitches. Chavez, Cishek, and Wilson didn't even throw 1 full inning. Strop only threw 1 total.

 

Chavez: 14 pitches

Cishek: 6 pitches

Wilson: 6 pitches

Strop: 20 pitches.

 

I'm sorry, but 6-20 pitches is not going to wear out anyone. It's when you have to ask your relievers to go multiple innings that you start having problems. Facing 1 or 2 batters will not even affect the pitcher come the next day. At most,maybe Strop is unavailable tonight for them.

[DaSpark]

Positive spin. We're 4 back on Cubs and we all view it as long shot, rightfully so. We're also 2.5 up for the WC, so that should also be viewed as a long shot to blow it. Granted it's 1.5 less and more teams competing, but still. Just saying we're in a good spot for WC having 3 more Ws than the first team out. Just don't go laying eggs here against the crappy teams and we should be just fine.

 

Brewers will get a wildcard spot imo unless absolute disaster strikes.

 

However, Brewers are not winning the division without a miracle. That miracle must include sweeping the Cubs at Wrigley (a miracle in itself).

 

We have 21 games left and need to 4 more wins than the Cubs from here on out to tie. Let's say the Cubs only go .500 and finish 11-11 in their last 22. Now we must win 15 of our final 21 games just to tie. You can see, without a Cubs collapse, it's a huge road to climb.

 

Most likely the Cubs win at least 13-14 of their final 22. If you assume 13 then the Brewers must win 17 out of 21 to tie and 18 out of 21 to win the division. So in my eyes, the brewers can only afford to lose 3-4 more games this year to have a shot at the division. If the Cubs win any more than 13 or 14 then the Brewers practically have to go 21-0, and that might not even be enough.

 

Now, of course, if the Cubs go under .500 in their final 22 things start to look much better. However, the major problem with that hope is they have 6 games combined against the Reds and White Sox. They will likely win both of those series. Those wins will even out any possible sweeps they might face on the road to .500. By the time the Cubs get to the pirates they will likely be eliminated and the Cubs will probably roll through them. Dbacks are also in collapse mode it seems and should be another easy series for the Cubs.

 

Then you have the Cards which may play the Cubs tough or laid back. If the Cards are secure in a second wild card spot with no hopes of getting the first wildcard spot, they will go easy on the Cubs to save their best pitches for the Wildcard game and any games thereafter. If the Brewers are still threatening the division at that point the Cubs will throw all they have at the Cards and likely sweep or at minimum win 2/3.

 

Reality though is we may not even be discussing the division by the time we go to Wrigley. Nats are playing bad right now and if the Cubs sweep them and the brewers lose a game or two in the meantime, it's over.

[MrTPlush]

I would think the Cardinals would want us to win the division if given the chance. If it is an incredible longshot for us to win the division (need a sweep and the Cardinals to sweep) they probably aren't going to try and push the Cubs out of the division lead that hard. However, I would bet they would still have a lot to play for when it comes to the WC regardless anyway. I doubt they build a 3 game lead in the 2nd WC position before they even start their series with the Cards...depends on when their ace is set to pitch in that series. That is the only guy you likely avoid using.

 

I mean think about it. You would much rather try to beat the Cubs in one game vs. trying to win a 5 game series against them. You'd want to play the better team in a one game playoff where the result is quite a crapshoot. In a five game series the results are less random, the better team has much better odds to come out on top then.

[brewmann04]

I agree had the Nats winning last night but they will need to take 2-3 to really help us but again we have to continue to win Series and we will be ok

[tmwiese55]

Cubs with another hardfought 10 inning win tonight - Nats had a shot to tie or win it during various AB's in the 10th with Harper, Soto, and Reynolds - they went K, K, and lineout to center with a Rendon single sprinkled in between.

 

bully for them, and it stinks the Nats didn't find a way to get a W on a Strasburg start when the Brewers were idle. On the silver lining side of things, Cubs used basically all of their reliable relievers in tonight's game, so guys like Strop, Cishek, and Wilson are being asked to extend themselves a lot. You've got to hope that at some point this grind is going to weaken their bullpen enough to cost them a few games they should have otherwise won or at a minimum keep them on fumes when the Brewers face them again in a few days - if it doesn't you tip your cap and go win a wild card spot.

 

Eh, the way I see it is the Cubs, on paper, should have lost last night being a Strasburg start. So even if they do lose a game due to a weak bullpen it just evens out. Also, I don't think they are really being asked to extend themselves that much. Most of those guys only threw a handful of pitches. Chavez, Cishek, and Wilson didn't even throw 1 full inning. Strop only threw 1 total.

 

Chavez: 14 pitches

Cishek: 6 pitches

Wilson: 6 pitches

Strop: 20 pitches.

 

I'm sorry, but 6-20 pitches is not going to wear out anyone. It's when you have to ask your relievers to go multiple innings that you start having problems. Facing 1 or 2 batters will not even affect the pitcher come the next day. At most,maybe Strop is unavailable tonight for them.

 

A few of them are going on multiple days in a row of pitching though. That's where the wear out comes and making them unavailable for games.

[Baldkin]

Cubs with another hardfought 10 inning win tonight - Nats had a shot to tie or win it during various AB's in the 10th with Harper, Soto, and Reynolds - they went K, K, and lineout to center with a Rendon single sprinkled in between.

 

bully for them, and it stinks the Nats didn't find a way to get a W on a Strasburg start when the Brewers were idle. On the silver lining side of things, Cubs used basically all of their reliable relievers in tonight's game, so guys like Strop, Cishek, and Wilson are being asked to extend themselves a lot. You've got to hope that at some point this grind is going to weaken their bullpen enough to cost them a few games they should have otherwise won or at a minimum keep them on fumes when the Brewers face them again in a few days - if it doesn't you tip your cap and go win a wild card spot.

 

Eh, the way I see it is the Cubs, on paper, should have lost last night being a Strasburg start. So even if they do lose a game due to a weak bullpen it just evens out. Also, I don't think they are really being asked to extend themselves that much. Most of those guys only threw a handful of pitches. Chavez, Cishek, and Wilson didn't even throw 1 full inning. Strop only threw 1 total.

 

Chavez: 14 pitches

Cishek: 6 pitches

Wilson: 6 pitches

Strop: 20 pitches.

 

I'm sorry, but 6-20 pitches is not going to wear out anyone. It's when you have to ask your relievers to go multiple innings that you start having problems. Facing 1 or 2 batters will not even affect the pitcher come the next day. At most,maybe Strop is unavailable tonight for them.

 

Cishek, Wilson and Strop all pitched Wednesday and Thursday.

[DaSpark]

Cubs with another hardfought 10 inning win tonight - Nats had a shot to tie or win it during various AB's in the 10th with Harper, Soto, and Reynolds - they went K, K, and lineout to center with a Rendon single sprinkled in between.

 

bully for them, and it stinks the Nats didn't find a way to get a W on a Strasburg start when the Brewers were idle. On the silver lining side of things, Cubs used basically all of their reliable relievers in tonight's game, so guys like Strop, Cishek, and Wilson are being asked to extend themselves a lot. You've got to hope that at some point this grind is going to weaken their bullpen enough to cost them a few games they should have otherwise won or at a minimum keep them on fumes when the Brewers face them again in a few days - if it doesn't you tip your cap and go win a wild card spot.

 

Eh, the way I see it is the Cubs, on paper, should have lost last night being a Strasburg start. So even if they do lose a game due to a weak bullpen it just evens out. Also, I don't think they are really being asked to extend themselves that much. Most of those guys only threw a handful of pitches. Chavez, Cishek, and Wilson didn't even throw 1 full inning. Strop only threw 1 total.

 

Chavez: 14 pitches

Cishek: 6 pitches

Wilson: 6 pitches

Strop: 20 pitches.

 

I'm sorry, but 6-20 pitches is not going to wear out anyone. It's when you have to ask your relievers to go multiple innings that you start having problems. Facing 1 or 2 batters will not even affect the pitcher come the next day. At most,maybe Strop is unavailable tonight for them.

 

Cishek, Wilson and Strop all pitched Wednesday and Thursday.

 

IMO it doesn't matter if they pitched the last 5 days. 6-15 pitches a game is not going to affect you the next day, no matter how many days you have thrown prior. These guys throw practice pitches every day anyway even if they never get up in the bullpen. 6 more makes no difference.

[MrTPlush]

6-15 pitches a game is not going to affect you the next day, no matter how many days you have thrown prior. These guys throw practice pitches every day anyway even if they never get up in the bullpen. 6 more makes no difference.

 

Oh, that explains why Hader can't pitch to a single batter. Not saying you are wrong, but every MLB team would think you are wrong.

 

To throw 6 pitches takes ramping up in the bullpen to prepare.

[tmwiese55]

Yea us joe schmoes sitting here can think that's the way it should be, but it's just not the reality of how relievers are used in today's MLB. Going 3 days in a row is rare, going 4 days in a row is almost unheard of. Knowing the Cubs luck though, they'll get an easy 9-1 right when they need it so they can rest everybody. If anyone should know this it's Brewers fans this year. As almost all our guys are managed this way other than Jeffress having a rubber arm

[pacopete4]

I hope the Cubs win every single game left, except the ones against the Brewers. The worse it will look for them when we take them down in the playoffs, the better.

[stalton]

Serious question. Is it too soon to post magic numbers for playoffs?

[KeithStone53151]

Serious question. Is it too soon to post magic numbers for playoffs?

 

20ish games left, absolutely not. Following that Cubs series feels like an appropriate time to start doing that.

[MrTPlush]

Seeing as our magic number is like 20...no

[KeithStone53151]

Seeing as our magic number is like 20...no

 

I would have found it weird a week ago when we were within a game of like 6 teams. It makes more sense now that we've pulled away significantly from the Phillies and are 2 games ahead of the NL West crowd.

[MrTPlush]

Seeing as our magic number is like 20...no

 

I would have found it weird a week ago when we were within a game of like 6 teams. It makes more sense now that we've pulled away significantly from the Phillies and are 2 games ahead of the NL West crowd.

 

Pretty sure in like 2014 we started it before the AS break...it was stupidly early.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cubs Nats game suspended tonight after getting through roughly 1.5 innings. Game will be continued tomorrow starting at 2 as part of a doubleheader. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs stick with Lester in this game tomorrow or if they try to turn it into a heavy bullpen game to ensure he pitches in the Brewers series. I guess he could also pitch the Wednesday brewer game on short rest, too.

[adambr2]

Cubs Nats game suspended tonight after getting through roughly 1.5 innings. Game will be continued tomorrow starting at 2 as part of a doubleheader. It will be interesting to see if the Cubs stick with Lester in this game tomorrow or if they try to turn it into a heavy bullpen game to ensure he pitches in the Brewers series. I guess he could also pitch the Wednesday brewer game on short rest, too.

 

Just to clarify but I'm 99% certain it was postponed, not suspended, meaning they'll start from scratch. Suspended would imply they'll pick up the game where they left off.

 

I can't imagine Lester is going to go tomorrow.

[brewcrewdue80]

Serious question. Is it too soon to post magic numbers for playoffs?

 

I thought 20 was a perfect countdow. We won today now its 19. LA/Arz/Col/Atlare playing eachother. Could be 18 within a matter of moments. 16 after tomorrow. Legit we will go down quick as these teams play eachother while weplay teams not in the running for the playoffs. Cards lost today!

[adambr2]

Getting win #80 today kind of put in perspective for me how close we are getting to the finish line. 20 games left, 10-10 gets us to 90 wins and that will be good enough for a WC. The only ones who can keep the Brewers out of the playoffs are the Brewers, because they don't need to do anything special from here to make it. They just need to avoid an epic collapse.

[DaSpark]

Cubs are starting the game over (brand new game). This almost surely means Lester will face the brewers now.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Cubs are starting the game over (brand new game). This almost surely means Lester will face the brewers now.

 

Lester almost assuredly gets bumped up earlier in the brewer series, since he only pitched 1 inning yesterday. Also, they are starting Jaime Garcia against scherzer in game 1 today, which will likely be a bullpen mob game. Hamels gets the nationals bullpen mob for game 2.

 

Weather looks like they will get both games in, but still soggy - and sketchy at best conditions for Sunday's game.

 

Edit: Game 1 start delayed due to rain, they should have a window to try and cram a doubleheader in on a very soggy field, but by around 10pm it's supposed to rain like crazy pretty much through tomorrow. Both of those teams are supposed to be off on the 13th...It would be hilarious if the Cubs had to play a wednesday night game at wrigley (8pm central start time) against the Brewers, then fly to DC for a makeup game on the 13th, then fly home to play a 2:20 friday afternoon game against the Reds.

 

Part of me truly feels this is karma for some of their game cancellations and schedule adjustments due to "inclement weather" last year.

[MrTPlush]

Huge day for the Brewers as their playoff odds have jumped to 92.6%. They now lead the #1 WC by 2.5 games and have a 3.5 game lead over the Dodgers.

 

(Cubs and Arizona outcomes will likely effect that percentage a tad).

[brewcrewdue80]

Just like that, magic #17 for playoffs. 19gms remaining.