2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[YelichPosse]

What is most crazy, is that All 3 NL central teams would be leading each division in the NL except the Cards would be out by 1/2 game in the east. This reminds me of a few years back with the Cubs Cards Pirates all being amazing and everyone else not even close in the NL

 

And then the way it works in the playoffs is the WC obviously plays each other and automatically plays the 1 seed, also from the central in this case and in the one you mentioned above. Seems to somewhat be a flaw in the system there, maybe tweak it to match up based on records. Say MKE has the 2nd best record after the Cubs and wins the WC game. AZ wins the west with the worst record of the remaining four teams, Cubs should play AZ and MKE plays winner of the East.

 

Yea its like in the NFL with division winners at .500 and seeded a minimum of a 4 seed. Maybe they should re look these playoff formats to actually reward a good record? Just spitballing! Still nice to see the NL Central so strong!

[young guns]

Didn't they have it previously where the one seed would not play the wild card if they were from the same division? Did that change with the second wild card? I guess it would be tougher if they had to wait till after the wildcard game to get people where they need to be.

[tmwiese55]

Yes, that went away with the 2nd WC. And I do see the scheduling issue since you won't know for sure who plays who so that non-WC related DS game can't be scheduled the next day. I'm guessing that's the key hang up on this

 

ETA: Good point by BLKNight about rewarding the #1 seed by getting the team after it used their best starter.

[obobo55new]

I like the way it is now. First, it rewards the #1 overall seed as they play a team that might have burned their best starter and quite possibly their bullpen playing the WC game. Secondly, basing it upon records is a bit silly. Each division plays roughly the same schedules as their divisional opponents, while comparing the Brewer's schedule to the Dodger's is a different animal. Simply the interleague is way easier this year. That could be a 5-6 game difference by itself.

 

I do find the AL/NL split quite interesting. Teams like Tampa and Seattle might he having one of their best seasons in years and can't sniff the pennant chase. Is that because the top 7 are sitting clearly ahead of the bottom 8 (Cal, Tx, Tor, Bal, Mn, Det, KC, ChW). What will it mean for the WS?

[MrTPlush]

If we can complete the sweep we will be closer to the division lead than we are to being out of a postseason spot.

 

Amazing couple of days.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If we can complete the sweep we will be closer to the division lead than we are to being out of a postseason spot.

 

Amazing couple of days.

 

Kinda nice knowing that based on pitching probables at this point, the Brewers won't face Hamels again and won't get Lester until their final game against the Cubs. With no off days for the Cubs between now and then, it's not like Maddon can try to line up his rotation or bullpen any differently. You don't see the Cubs play this poorly in the field and on the mound very often, and one has got to figure that fatigue is starting to play a role.

 

That could all change tomorrow should Quintana pitch well and the Cub bats put something together against Chacin - Regardless I'm pumped the Brewers already won this series and are set up very favorably down the stretch with 4 days off to keep key arms rested. Despite this crazy stretch for the Cubs, they only have 2 remaining.

[KeithStone53151]

If we can complete the sweep we will be closer to the division lead than we are to being out of a postseason spot.

 

Amazing couple of days.

 

Kinda nice knowing that based on pitching probables at this point, the Brewers won't face Hamels again and won't get Lester until their final game against the Cubs. With no off days for the Cubs between now and then, it's not like Maddon can try to line up his rotation or bullpen any differently. You don't see the Cubs play this poorly in the field and on the mound very often, and one has got to figure that fatigue is starting to play a role.

 

That could all change tomorrow should Quintana pitch well and the Cub bats put something together against Chacin - Regardless I'm pumped the Brewers already won this series and are set up very favorably down the stretch with 4 days off to keep key arms rested. Despite this crazy stretch for the Cubs, they only have 2 remaining.

 

Completely agree that fatigue is probably impacting these guys. I'm not sure why Maddon isn't giving them more rest, the general travel schedule is probably harsh. Today is a night game and they have to travel to DC for a game right away tomorrow...that certainly won't help.

 

I've been saying for a couple weeks that it would be a whole new ballgame if we were able to sweep the Cubs here. Even getting 2 of 3 leaves us within striking distance but would still require the Cubs to significantly falter. Hopefully we can build on our success yesterday and score another big win tonight.

[MrTPlush]

Well if they split at Washington and then we win 2/3 again that put us at 2.5 games back. If we assume they lose on one of our off days coming up that puts it at 2 games back with quite a few left outside of that. If we play really well, which isn't hard to believe with our schedule, we could chase them down even if they don't have a major falter.

 

That being said winning today would make things way better. If not we have a ton of pressure to play elite baseball the rest of the season.

[Ennder]

It feels like we are finally close to the point of the season where looking at the loss column makes some sense, though it is still probably a few games too early. You all have my permission to start adding in the loss column to everything you post without me judging you.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

It feels like we are finally close to the point of the season where looking at the loss column makes some sense, though it is still probably a few games too early. You all have my permission to start adding in the loss column to everything you post without me judging you.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Just keep winning series - trailing by 5 in the loss column to the Cubs makes the division a tough hill to climb, but hopefully the Cubs make it a bit easier by losing the two extra games they have on their schedule. If they win both of those games on days where the Brewers are idle, there's probably not enough schedule left unless they find a way to go through a 3-7 stretch of games that aren't against the Brewers (i.e. - Crew gets alot of help). I'd love to think the Brewers could pull off a road sweep at Wrigley (they did so last September to keep their marginal division hopes alive), but counting on it is unrealistic.

 

As weird as it sounds, I actually like STL staying close enough to both the WC and Division lead right now - for the sake of division title hopes, I want to make sure the Cards have a playoff spot to play for in their last series against the Cubs. In my perfect world, all three teams are within a couple games of each other headed to that last weekend series, with the Cards just trailing or even with the Brewers. Brewers sweep the Tigers, and then the Cards beat the Cubs in a hardfought series in Chicago - Brewers win the division, Cards win top wild card spot while the Cubs take the 2nd wild card. Then they have to travel to STL for the wild card game before the winner heads back to Milwaukee for the Division series. Or better yet one of the NL west teams catches fire with the rockies and there's a tie for the second wild card spot that forces a play-in game to decide who plays the wild card game.

[Madhawk23]

Just keep winning series - trailing by 5 in the loss column to the Cubs makes the division a tough hill to climb, but hopefully the Cubs make it a bit easier by losing the two extra games they have on their schedule. If they win both of those games on days where the Brewers are idle, there's probably not enough schedule left unless they find a way to go through a 3-7 stretch of games that aren't against the Brewers (i.e. - Crew gets alot of help). I'd love to think the Brewers could pull off a road sweep at Wrigley (they did so last September to keep their marginal division hopes alive), but counting on it is unrealistic.

 

As weird as it sounds, I actually like STL staying close enough to both the WC and Division lead right now - for the sake of division title hopes, I want to make sure the Cards have a playoff spot to play for in their last series against the Cubs. In my perfect world, all three teams are within a couple games of each other headed to that last weekend series, with the Cards just trailing or even with the Brewers. Brewers sweep the Tigers, and then the Cards beat the Cubs in a hardfought series in Chicago - Brewers win the division, Cards win top wild card spot while the Cubs take the 2nd wild card. Then they have to travel to STL for the wild card game before the winner heads back to Milwaukee for the Division series. Or better yet one of the NL west teams catches fire with the rockies and there's a tie for the second wild card spot that forces a play-in game to decide who plays the wild card game.

 

While I like your passion and optimism - I just don't see any way now that the Brewers are still fighting for the division heading into that last weekend. Needed to have won last night to keep those hopes alive. At this stage now, I think I'd prefer that we head into that final weekend with a 1-2 game cushion for the WC. That might allow us to sit some of our key guys (especially our pen) to line those guys up for the WC game. I think that's our best hope at this point and would probably be the best case scenario heading into that Detroit series to finish the season.

[tmwiese55]

While unlikely there is clearly a way, if you sweep them next week you're involved. That's it. Sure it's not going to happen but it could, MKE swept them down there last year late in the year. They also play Scherz and Stras this weekend and the Cubs bullpen is swamped. If they lose 3/4 and we sweep you're involved. Of course all this is unlikely and kind of best case scenario, but this is baseball, stuff like this happens all the time. Well, not all the time I guess but it's not rare. Something odd happens almost yearly, heck look at OAK this year or even STL this year. STL coming back to catch ATL in 2011, etc.

[MrTPlush]

Dodgers and Rockies have to play each other...a Milwaukee Brewers dream. Arizona also has to go play a really good Atlanta team. Win our next two series and we likely have punched our ticket barring a massive collapse after that.

 

The divisional race is alive and well. I think any scenario really requires us to go on a dominating stretch where we sweep someone. Cubs split with Washington and loss series to us (while we win series vs. Giants) puts us at 2.5 games back. Not terrible, but obviously that's only shrinking so fast.

 

Bottom line, we need a sweep somewhere. We aren't going to win the division winning 2-1 series. The Cubs aren't going to be bad enough to lose all their series to let us catch up.

[82brewcrew82]

In terms of winning the division, the situation hasn't really changed for several weeks. They have been winning games/series at a pretty good clip but all that winning still has them five back in the loss column, just as they were several weeks ago. Even if we sweep them and end up tied at the end, The Cubs would have the tie breaker. They have to lose six more times than we do in order for us to win the division. Teams can win more games than they already have, they cannot lose fewer games than they already have. In my opinion, they are going to need to go on a six or seven game winning streak in order to catch the Cubs. I don't see it any other way.

 

The WC is a different story in that Philly and Atlanta have tailed off while the West Coast teams keep beating each other up. I like their positioning for a WC spot, just not the division. And I'd be ecstatic with a WC spot.

[Fear The Chorizo]

While I like your passion and optimism - I just don't see any way now that the Brewers are still fighting for the division heading into that last weekend.

 

Unless MLB decrees that the Cubs are guaranteed a win in all of their other remaining 17 games not against the Brewers, there are actually tons of ways - because baseball. I acknowledge most of those routes would require the Brewers to at least win and ideally sweep next week's series in Chicago to continue tightening the gap, which I hope is less than 5 games in the loss column after their upcoming 4 game series in Washington. I expect the Cubs to hang onto the division, but I'd be surprised if they suddenly run away with it based on how both the Brewers and Cards are playing. Alot can happen over 3.5 weeks of a season.

[JohnBriggs12]

In terms of winning the division, the situation hasn't really changed for several weeks. They have been winning games/series at a pretty good clip but all that winning still has them five back in the loss column, just as they were several weeks ago. Even if we sweep them and end up tied at the end, The Cubs would have the tie breaker. They have to lose six more times than we do in order for us to win the division. Teams can win more games than they already have, they cannot lose fewer games than they already have. In my opinion, they are going to need to go on a six or seven game winning streak in order to catch the Cubs. I don't see it any other way.

 

The WC is a different story in that Philly and Atlanta have tailed off while the West Coast teams keep beating each other up. I like their positioning for a WC spot, just not the division. And I'd be ecstatic with a WC spot.

 

This isn't the NFL. If the Cubs and Brewers tie for the division there's a one game playoff for the division with the loser still qualifying for wild card in all likelihood. Cubs get home field for that because they will have won the season series. As for trailing in the loss column, all that signifies is Cubs have more games to play. The Cubs would have had to falter anyway for the Brewers to catch up, and if they go into a bit of a tailspin, the more games they have to play, the better.

[lcbj68c]

 

This isn't the NFL. If the Cubs and Brewers tie for the division there's a one game playoff for the division with the loser still qualifying for wild card in all likelihood. Cubs get home field for that because they will have won the season series. As for trailing in the loss column, all that signifies is Cubs have more games to play. The Cubs would have had to falter anyway for the Brewers to catch up, and if they go into a bit of a tailspin, the more games they have to play, the better.

 

Thank you! Though, I'm not sure it'll get through some skulls. Season head to head record does not get you a division tiebreaker. Home field in a tie-breaker game, sure, but you have to play the game.

[MrTPlush]

While I like your passion and optimism - I just don't see any way now that the Brewers are still fighting for the division heading into that last weekend.

 

We are four games back, we would only need to gain one more game between now and the last weekend to still be in the running( we sweep, they get swept). We would only need to gain two games between now and then to have a more realistic shot (us go 3-0, they go 1-2).

 

Do I expect us to win the division or force a tiebreaker? NO! However I could find a lot of crazier endings than that...gaining 4 games in 3.5 weeks isn't even that crazy. I will mostly focus on the WC that we are sitting pretty nicely in.

[Baldkin]

All of the post season predictors still show the Brewers between 7.5 and 10% of winning the division. It ain't over yet, folks.

 

Last night's loss really hurt, but there's still hope!

[Jopal78]

If the Brewers can go 12-9 (.571) over their last 21 games that would put them at 91 wins.

 

The Cardinals would have to go 13-9 (.590) to catch up to the Brewers for the top wild card spot.

The Rockies would have to go 14-9 (.608) to catch up to the Brewers.

The Dodgers would have to go 15-7 (.682) to catch up to the Brewers

The Diamondbacks would have to go 16-7 (.695) to catch up to the Brewers.

 

Can the Brewers go 12-9 the rest of the way? The Giants are a terrible team on the road and have played under .500 baseball since June. As hot as the Pirates were in July (17-9) they were just as cold in August (10-17) and hover around .500 albeit with good pitching. Only three games left against the Reds. The Tigers will be mentally checked out by the end of the year. The Cardinals will give the Brewers all they can handle, and I'm sure the Cubs will have Quintana, Hendricks and Hamels line up against the Brewers (they tend to move Lester around to avoid pitching against the Brewers only 5 starts against in four years)

[82brewcrew82]

In terms of winning the division, the situation hasn't really changed for several weeks. They have been winning games/series at a pretty good clip but all that winning still has them five back in the loss column, just as they were several weeks ago. Even if we sweep them and end up tied at the end, The Cubs would have the tie breaker. They have to lose six more times than we do in order for us to win the division. Teams can win more games than they already have, they cannot lose fewer games than they already have. In my opinion, they are going to need to go on a six or seven game winning streak in order to catch the Cubs. I don't see it any other way.

 

The WC is a different story in that Philly and Atlanta have tailed off while the West Coast teams keep beating each other up. I like their positioning for a WC spot, just not the division. And I'd be ecstatic with a WC spot.

 

This isn't the NFL. If the Cubs and Brewers tie for the division there's a one game playoff for the division with the loser still qualifying for wild card in all likelihood. Cubs get home field for that because they will have won the season series. As for trailing in the loss column, all that signifies is Cubs have more games to play. The Cubs would have had to falter anyway for the Brewers to catch up, and if they go into a bit of a tailspin, the more games they have to play, the better.

What signifies the difference in games played is the "games back" column which currently sits at 4 despite being five back in the loss column. That shows the snapshot of what the situation is today, not what will ultimately need to happen. I misspoke on the tie breaker and should have clarified home field but either way, the bottom line is the that the Cubs need to lose six more times than us in order for the Brewers to win the division. Slice it however you like, that is what needs to happen. Having those games left could also mean having more games to recover from a tailspin. The Cubs control the division, the Brewers do not control their destiny in terms of the division.

[coolhandluke121]

Winning the division is pretty unlikely. The Cubs are the more talented team - if anything, they have underachieved this year, and they are still 4 games up with a much better run differential. I probably wouldn't bet on the Brewers with 10:1 odds. I'd be tempted at 15:1, but if it comes down to the Cubs playing a different wild card candidate, I will absolutely be hoping the Cubs win because the Brewers are still in very real danger of missing a wild card spot. It would be foolhardy to think the Brewers are completely over their issues just because they've been solid recently.

 

 

It's also important to get the first wild card. It's not just about home field; the main issue is being able to rest the pitchers you want to use in the wild card game. Having a 3-4 game lead over LAD, STL, COL, etc in the last weekend would make a wild card victory more likely because those teams will have to use everyone to secure the other wild card. I think the Cubs beating the Cardinals and Diamondbacks later this month is likely to be a good thing for the Brewers at this point.

[tmwiese55]

Positive spin. We're 4 back on Cubs and we all view it as long shot, rightfully so. We're also 2.5 up for the WC, so that should also be viewed as a long shot to blow it. Granted it's 1.5 less and more teams competing, but still. Just saying we're in a good spot for WC having 3 more Ws than the first team out. Just don't go laying eggs here against the crappy teams and we should be just fine.

[brewcrewdue80]

Well this will make Magic number figuring out easy:

https://www.playoffmagic.com/mlb/league/

 

How cool is that!

 

Since this is more than 2clicks to get to now, bumping the link.

 

Countdown to playoffs begin. Magic # 20.