2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[MrTPlush]

We will get to see the beauty of these other WC contenders playing each other today. The Dodgers and D Backs play eachother so if we win one team will stay 1.5 games back and the other will have to go back 2.5 games. The closer of the two will also take the lead in their division which is pretty meaningless to us.

 

The Phillys are losing to the Cubs so far...a loss that would put them 4 games behind us in the standings pushing them really close to division or bust territory and an Atlanta win would make their entire outlook really dismal.

[reillymcshane]

What's kind of crazy is that the Mariners are on pace to win 91 games - yet they will still miss out on the Wild Card to teams on pace for 96 and 101 wins, respectively.

 

It's not that extreme in the NL, but I think it shows the effect of the 'tanking' teams. We have more and more teams punting on a season, and with no chance of making the playoffs, they sell off good players, avoid free agent signings, and retool with the hope of winning down the road. It's a strategy that has worked for the Cubs and Astros recently, so I can't blame a team for rebuilding. I mean, winning 73 games offers little solace to a club. Might as well reboot the club and drop 10 more games. You improve your draft selection, add some young assets - why not do it.

 

It all makes making the playoffs more difficult as teams have to aim for 90 wins for a chance to go into the post season - and even then, that's not guaranteed.

[JohnBriggs12]

What's kind of crazy is that the Mariners are on pace to win 91 games - yet they will still miss out on the Wild Card to teams on pace for 96 and 101 wins, respectively.

 

It's not that extreme in the NL, but I think it shows the effect of the 'tanking' teams. We have more and more teams punting on a season, and with no chance of making the playoffs, they sell off good players, avoid free agent signings, and retool with the hope of winning down the road. It's a strategy that has worked for the Cubs and Astros recently, so I can't blame a team for rebuilding. I mean, winning 73 games offers little solace to a club. Might as well reboot the club and drop 10 more games. You improve your draft selection, add some young assets - why not do it.

 

It all makes making the playoffs more difficult as teams have to aim for 90 wins for a chance to go into the post season - and even then, that's not guaranteed.

 

This year more teams are tanking the AL. Winning 90 games in the AL isn't much of an achievement.

[MrTPlush]

I don’t try to look into strength of schedule too much, but wow do the D Backs have a absolutely miserable schedule. Other than playing divisional rivals COL and LAD...they have to play Houston, Atlanta, and Chicago! Outside of five San Diego games all their remaining games are playoff bound teams or ones on the brink.

[adambr2]

Worth noting that the Brewers' overall record against the Cardinals is 8-8. They have one 3 game series remaining. Basically meaning, the winner of that series will receive the home field advantage in the event of a Wild Card tie between the two.

[jvrocksaz]

Here's how it looked for the contenders on August 20th

 

Chicago - 71-52

Atlanta ---69-55

Brewers --69-56

Arizona -- 69-56

Cardinals -69-57

Rockies -- 68-56

Phillies ---68-56

Dodgers --67-59

 

This was an incredible log jam between the Braves#2 and the Phils/Rockies #7

 

Now 10 days later

 

Chicago - 79-55

Cardinals-76-59

Brewers - 76-60

Atlanta -- 74-60

Dodgers--73-62

Arizona --74-61

Phillies ---72-62

Rockies --72-62

 

No significant nose dive for any team, but the 3 Central contenders continue to pound the NL. I think it's safe to say that the Phils and Rocks won't make it through this gauntlet.

 

The thing with the Rockies is that they most likely have a better chance at a division title then the WC. They are right there with the Dodgers and Dbacks with plenty of games left vs those two teams.

[owbc]

What a disastrous weekend for Arizona. Everyone expected the Dodgers to eventually pull ahead but that was a terrible way to blow the division lead and potentially the playoffs. Only ~35% playoff odds now for Arizona.

 

The Cubs have basically wrapped up the NL Central and only need to play .500 baseball the rest of the way to win 94 games. The Brewers would have to go 10 over .500 (17-7) to get to 94 wins which is possible but unlikely.

[KeithStone53151]

What a disastrous weekend for Arizona. Everyone expected the Dodgers to eventually pull ahead but that was a terrible way to blow the division lead and potentially the playoffs. Only ~35% playoff odds now for Arizona.

 

The Cubs have basically wrapped up the NL Central and only need to play .500 baseball the rest of the way to win 94 games. The Brewers would have to go 10 over .500 (17-7) to get to 94 wins which is possible but unlikely.

 

I think you really need to wait until this 3 game series ends before definitively saying anything about the division. If the Brewers sweep here, It's a 2 game lead with just over 20 games left. Winning 2 of 3 and a 4 game cubs lead pretty much leaves us in a similar situation to what we are now hoping for a sweep in Wrigley. Anything worse pretty much slams the door and we are hoping for wildcard.

[Fear The Chorizo]

What a disastrous weekend for Arizona. Everyone expected the Dodgers to eventually pull ahead but that was a terrible way to blow the division lead and potentially the playoffs. Only ~35% playoff odds now for Arizona.

 

The Cubs have basically wrapped up the NL Central and only need to play .500 baseball the rest of the way to win 94 games. The Brewers would have to go 10 over .500 (17-7) to get to 94 wins which is possible but unlikely.

 

Cubs are playing great, but they haven't wrapped up the NL Central yet - if after their next 10 games they still have a 5+ game lead on the rest of the division and the Brewers are out of H2H matchups with them, then I'll agree with you. A 5 game lead is substantial, but the Brewers having 6 H2H games and essentially a whole month to make up that ground against an otherwise soft schedule doesn't make it impossible. The Cubs get 6 Brewer games, plus Strasburg and Scherzer to round out 8 of their next 10, along with 6 games against the Dbacks and Cards - if they play this next stretch at a 6-4 pace or better, the Cubs cruise to the division title and best record in the NL. If they are 4-6 or worse in large part due to the Brewers winning both series against them, the division race will go down to the last weekend of the season.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

What a disastrous weekend for Arizona. Everyone expected the Dodgers to eventually pull ahead but that was a terrible way to blow the division lead and potentially the playoffs. Only ~35% playoff odds now for Arizona.

 

The Cubs have basically wrapped up the NL Central and only need to play .500 baseball the rest of the way to win 94 games. The Brewers would have to go 10 over .500 (17-7) to get to 94 wins which is possible but unlikely.

 

Cubs are playing great, but they haven't wrapped up the NL Central yet - if after their next 10 games they still have a 5+ game lead on the rest of the division and the Brewers are out of H2H matchups with them, then I'll agree with you. A 5 game lead is substantial, but the Brewers having 6 H2H games and essentially a whole month to make up that ground against an otherwise soft schedule doesn't make it impossible. The Cubs get 6 Brewer games, plus Strasburg and Scherzer to round out 8 of their next 10, along with 6 games against the Dbacks and Cards - if they play this next stretch at a 6-4 pace or better, the Cubs cruise to the division title and best record in the NL. If they are 4-6 or worse in large part due to the Brewers winning both series against them, the division race will go down to the last weekend of the season.

Short of us winning 5 or 6 of the remaining H2H vs them I really don’t see how they don’t have it wrapped up. If they go 11-15 (92 wins) we still have to go 15-9 just to tie.

[owbc]

It would be a real shock if the Cubs faltered. They are the best team in the NL and look ready to make a deep playoff run. The H2H games will be fun but could end up hurting our WC1 chances. The Brewers have been playing well and haven't made up any ground.

[Ennder]

What's kind of crazy is that the Mariners are on pace to win 91 games - yet they will still miss out on the Wild Card to teams on pace for 96 and 101 wins, respectively.

 

It's not that extreme in the NL, but I think it shows the effect of the 'tanking' teams. We have more and more teams punting on a season, and with no chance of making the playoffs, they sell off good players, avoid free agent signings, and retool with the hope of winning down the road. It's a strategy that has worked for the Cubs and Astros recently, so I can't blame a team for rebuilding. I mean, winning 73 games offers little solace to a club. Might as well reboot the club and drop 10 more games. You improve your draft selection, add some young assets - why not do it.

 

It all makes making the playoffs more difficult as teams have to aim for 90 wins for a chance to go into the post season - and even then, that's not guaranteed.

 

I don't think this is about tanking as much as it is about teams not realizing they are getting old and bad. The Blue Jays and Orioles thought they were competing this season. The AL Central is the clearest tanking division as you could say 3 of the teams were tanking. Every team in the AL West considered themselves competitors.

 

In the NL you have the Marlins as the only real tanking team. The Reds haven't really sold anything off, they just can't find pitching. The rest of the NL all went into this year hoping to compete or at least trying to get better (Padres).

[obobo55new]

Colorado has 17 home games left (10R) while the Dodgers only have 9 (17R). You would think that would be huge in favor of the Rockies, but each of the NLWest teams are performing better on the road than at home.

[Eye Black]

The Brewers were at a season high 18 games above .500 on July 10th. Tomorrow the Brewers will have an opportunity to get back to 18 games over .500.

[ecjimg]

Imagine the Cubs falter and the Brewers win the division by one game. How gross would it be rooting for the Cardinals in the wild card game???

[StearnBrewliever]

Not gross to me because ...Cubs fans....

[MrTPlush]

Brewers playoff odds have now gone up to 85.3% according to ESPN. Would have gone through the roof if the Rockies would have ended up losing. Instead we lead Colorado by 2, D Backs by 3 (have not played today), and the Phillies have gone behind us a staggering 5 games.

 

Seperation is growing, a beautiful site for the Brewers who start a crucial 9 game stretch with a W.

[clancyphile]

The Cubs are on a long stretch with no off days. When they've slumped the last few years, it was always on these types of stretches.

 

And we are getting hot.

[Fear The Chorizo]

You want to talk about just about a superfecta for NL scoreboard watching today as a Brewers fan....

 

Brewers beat the Cubs

Cards lose

Phillies lose

Braves lose

Rockies win a wild game...meh

Dbacks lose

Dodgers down 4-1 in the 9th

[KeithStone53151]

You want to talk about just about a superfecta for NL scoreboard watching today as a Brewers fan....

 

Brewers beat the Cubs

Cards lose

Phillies lose

Braves lose

Rockies win a wild game...meh

Dbacks lose

Dodgers down 4-1 in the 9th

 

Good day to be a brewers fan. Gotta keep it rolling though. Pedal down all the way to the finish line.

[JohnBriggs12]

Don't look now, but the White Sox have been on fire, going 14-6 in their last 20 games. So that 3 game series the Cubs have in Guaranteed Rate park later this month doesn't look like such a sure thing anymore. Sox are getting really good pitching lately.

[MrTPlush]

Brewers lead all teams vying for a WC spot by 2.5 games. The Dodgers 2.5 back, Arizona 3.5 back, and Phillies a distant 5 games back.

 

Arizona and Phillies falling off a cliff right now.

[adambr2]

The Tampa Bay Rays have a better record than the Arizona Diamondbacks. That just seems weird.

[YelichPosse]

What is most crazy, is that All 3 NL central teams would be leading each division in the NL except the Cards would be out by 1/2 game in the east. This reminds me of a few years back with the Cubs Cards Pirates all being amazing and everyone else not even close in the NL

[tmwiese55]

What is most crazy, is that All 3 NL central teams would be leading each division in the NL except the Cards would be out by 1/2 game in the east. This reminds me of a few years back with the Cubs Cards Pirates all being amazing and everyone else not even close in the NL

 

And then the way it works in the playoffs is the WC obviously plays each other and automatically plays the 1 seed, also from the central in this case and in the one you mentioned above. Seems to somewhat be a flaw in the system there, maybe tweak it to match up based on records. Say MKE has the 2nd best record after the Cubs and wins the WC game. AZ wins the west with the worst record of the remaining four teams, Cubs should play AZ and MKE plays winner of the East.