2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[82brewcrew82]

Say what you want about a lot of time being left but they simply cannot lose a series to a bad team at this point.

 

I now hope they get swept and still make the postseason. Because saying they can't lose this series to the Reds is crazy talk. What is the difference between getting swept today and getting swept in four games on June 21-24?

 

We don't know what other teams are going to do the next month or ourselves. Now can we keep losing series? NO! We gotta start winning games, but these games mean just as much as the ones in September.

 

We hold a postseason spot no matter what methodology you want to use. Saying we HAVE to win games when there are over 20+ to go doesn't make any sense. How we do against the Reds is just wins and losses, nothing more meaningful. It is the overall record that really matters. The Dodgers have the best run differential in the entire NL and aren't even in a postseason slot. Wins and losses...don't care against who for either as long as it is good enough for a postseason spot.

I didn't mean "can't" as in it eliminates them from something. I meant "can't" as in good teams should win series like this at this time of year.

[brewcrewdue80]

Say what you want about a lot of time being left but they simply cannot lose a series to a bad team at this point.

 

I now hope they get swept and still make the postseason. Because saying they can't lose this series to the Reds is crazy talk. What is the difference between getting swept today and getting swept in four games on June 21-24?

 

We don't know what other teams are going to do the next month or ourselves. Now can we keep losing series? NO! We gotta start winning games, but these games mean just as much as the ones in September.

 

We hold a postseason spot no matter what methodology you want to use. Saying we HAVE to win games when there are over 20+ to go doesn't make any sense. How we do against the Reds is just wins and losses, nothing more meaningful. It is the overall record that really matters. The Dodgers have the best run differential in the entire NL and aren't even in a postseason slot. Wins and losses...don't care against who for either as long as it is good enough for a postseason spot.

 

+1

 

I literally saw people using the term "must win" back in June already. I get it, sometimes it seems that way. My guess is people are used to a football season where one game is huge. 30+ games is still a big chunk of the season left, no must win games yet.

 

Yeah I was exicited that season we began really well had a big Lead after like 40games. A buddy of mine commented, essentially the Packers are 2-1 and leading 1 game over the 1-2 starts. Sigh. Thanks buzzkill.

 

There are a lot of games still to go, but then again, in football terms, its only 2.

[SomewhereInTime]

The football comparison is apples to oranges, nobody in baseball is going 140-22, in the NFL you get the equivalent many years.

[obobo55new]

Next 9 games...3 @Wash no Scherzer, 3 vs Cubs no Lester, 3 vs SF. 6 home games, is 6-3 too much to ask? That would get the team to 18 over, high-water mark for the season. That would leave them with 9 home and 9 road games (@Cubs, @Cards, @Pitt, Pitt, Cin, Det).

 

Think these next 9 are critical. 5-4 would be OK, but 6 or more would really look nice.

[StearnBrewliever]

When do we start cheering for the Cubs against wild card teams like philly/atlanta , stl ...etc?

[KeithStone53151]

When do we start cheering for the Cubs against wild card teams like philly/atlanta , stl ...etc?

 

Not yet. Definitely not before we play them over the labor day series. If they take 2 or 3 of those from us, then yeah probably time to hope they beat up the other wildcards.

[Ennder]

I didn't mean "can't" as in it eliminates them from something. I meant "can't" as in good teams should win series like this at this time of year.

 

 

It is just as wrong when you say it like this. Losing to the bad teams and beating the good teams works just as well as beating the bad teams and losing to the good teams. The only series that matters more than any others is the head to head one because the games technically count twice. If we had lost 2 of 3 to the Reds it would have changed our playoff odds slightly but not by much at all. No more than losing 2 of 3 to the Nationals would.

[bm1090]

Next 9 games...3 @Wash no Scherzer, 3 vs Cubs no Lester, 3 vs SF. 6 home games, is 6-3 too much to ask? That would get the team to 18 over, high-water mark for the season. That would leave them with 9 home and 9 road games (@Cubs, @Cards, @Pitt, Pitt, Cin, Det).

 

Think these next 9 are critical. 5-4 would be OK, but 6 or more would really look nice.

 

Looks like Scherzer will pitch on normal rest Sunday so we won't miss him.

[obobo55new]

I heard it during the game today that he was going to miss us. Sorry if I am incorrect.

[bm1090]

I heard it during the game today that he was going to miss us. Sorry if I am incorrect.

 

I think you were correct at the time. He was scheduled to miss us. The Nationals had an off day today and moved Strasburg/Scherzer up a day.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If the Brewers continue to play winning baseball for the last month of the season (winning 6 out of every 10 on average), they're almost guaranteed one of the wild care spots - and based on who they play down the stretch they'll at least have a mathematical shot at winning the division through the season's last week.

 

If they take care of their business, they're in - and they don't have to go on some obscenely hot stretch, either.

 

As for rooting for the Cubs to beat other wild card teams - I'd rather they lose this weekend's Philly series since the Phillies and Braves play each other a bunch and the Brewers are 3 games clear of them in the wild card standings. I want the Cubs to be as close to Milwaukee in the standings before they start their last 6 head to head matchups starting on Labor Day. Depending on how the NL West race shakes out over the next few weeks and how the Brewers do against the Cubs in their last 6 games will determine whether I'd hope for Cub wins against the Dbacks and Cardinals in September. Generally speaking, I'd still prefer they lose every game they play - but the realist in me knows they could help lock down a Brewer wild card berth if the Brewers aren't good enough to catch them.

[brewmann04]

I don't care what other teams do at this point it in the Brewers hands continue to win Series and we will see the playoffs.

[Dead Simmons]

Next 9 games...3 @Wash no Scherzer, 3 vs Cubs no Lester, 3 vs SF. 6 home games, is 6-3 too much to ask? That would get the team to 18 over, high-water mark for the season. That would leave them with 9 home and 9 road games (@Cubs, @Cards, @Pitt, Pitt, Cin, Detroit).

 

Last series of the season with the Tigers? What were the schedule makers thinking?

 

Well, guys it's going to be a really interesting September. I wouldn't be surprised if the top seed and both WC's come from the Central again. I don't envy your Sept. schedule; lots of Central games and the Pirates and Reds aren't lame ducks within the division.

 

On the West: those 3 teams are bound to cancel each other out (and they know it)

 

East: I just can't see Atl/Philly hanging with us...maybe next season.

[KeithStone53151]

Next 9 games...3 @Wash no Scherzer, 3 vs Cubs no Lester, 3 vs SF. 6 home games, is 6-3 too much to ask? That would get the team to 18 over, high-water mark for the season. That would leave them with 9 home and 9 road games (@Cubs, @Cards, @Pitt, Pitt, Cin, Detroit).

 

Last series of the season with the Tigers? What were the schedule makers thinking?

 

Well, guys it's going to be a really interesting September. I wouldn't be surprised if the top seed and both WC's come from the Central again. I don't envy your Sept. schedule; lots of Central games and the Pirates and Reds aren't lame ducks within the division.

 

On the West: those 3 teams are bound to cancel each other out (and they know it)

 

East: I just can't see Atl/Philly hanging with us...maybe next season.

 

I'm of the same mindset as you. Atlanta probably takes the division with their significant lead, I don't think Philly can get to the 87-88 win range that it will likely take(minimum).

 

The Dbacks, Rockies, and Dodgers have 6-7 games against each of the other 2. That's at least half their games that will be very tough. Unless one team really routes the other 2, they'll be generally around 500 on those sets and will have to do really well in the other 13-15 games.

 

I still have hope the Cubs will slip a bit now that they are playing more legit teams, but then again the game yesterday wasn't much of a slip...

[MrTPlush]

I know a lot don’t want to cheer for the Cubs, but if we and the Cubs do well in our series we could squash the Phillies playoff hopes real fast in the WC.

[pacopete4]

I know a lot don’t want to cheer for the Cubs, but if we and the Cubs do well in our series we could squash the Phillies playoff hopes real fast in the WC.

 

I want to beat the Cubs in the playoffs. Don’t care if they win the division. I want them to lose to us when it matters most.

[MrTPlush]

If the Cubs go 14-14 to end it (93-69) we would have to go 17-10 just to catch them. So take that as you please. It’s not hard to imagine them going 12-16 if they have rough stretches though.

 

 

On a brighter note while the Cards keep winning we are keeping the pressure on in the #1 WC race just a .5 game back. Our winning ways have started to create separation in the WC card race on the other end.

 

If you think our chances in the division are terrible you will be happy to know our elimination number in the division (24) is almost the same as the three teams that trail us in the wildcard (25).

[Outlander]

I have not checked the Fangraphs Playoff odds for a couple of days but they have made a pretty big jump the last couple of days. Was around 50% and now at 75% and even ahead of the Cardinals.

[tigerbrew]

With the new additions, hope we have a hot month of September and win the divison.

[Eye Black]

Looking at the current Wild Card contenders I think 90 wins is the mark to guarantee a playoff spot. The Brewers would have to go 14-12 in September to get to the 90 win mark. With three games against the Tigers to end the season, The Brewers will have a good shot at 90 wins even if they can manage to play just near .500 ball until the final weekend of the season.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Cubs are on a long stretch with no off days. When they've slumped the last few years, it was always on these types of stretches.

[Fear The Chorizo]

If the Cubs go 14-14 to end it (93-69) we would have to go 17-10 just to catch them. So take that as you please. It’s not hard to imagine them going 12-16 if they have rough stretches though.

 

 

On a brighter note while the Cards keep winning we are keeping the pressure on in the #1 WC race just a .5 game back. Our winning ways have started to create separation in the WC card race on the other end.

 

If you think our chances in the division are terrible you will be happy to know our elimination number in the division (24) is almost the same as the three teams that trail us in the wildcard (25).

 

With 14 of their remaining games against playoff contending teams, and 9 against the brewers and cards, the Cubs' division lead could easily whither away quickly if the brewers play them well. They aren't even halfway through their 23 game, 23 day stretch, and they are going to need the bottom part of their 40 man roster to log some important innings.

[Dead Simmons]

Here's how it looked for the contenders on August 20th

 

Chicago - 71-52

Atlanta ---69-55

Brewers --69-56

Arizona -- 69-56

Cardinals -69-57

Rockies -- 68-56

Phillies ---68-56

Dodgers --67-59

 

This was an incredible log jam between the Braves#2 and the Phils/Rockies #7

 

Now 10 days later

 

Chicago - 79-55

Cardinals-76-59

Brewers - 76-60

Atlanta -- 74-60

Dodgers--73-62

Arizona --74-61

Phillies ---72-62

Rockies --72-62

 

No significant nose dive for any team, but the 3 Central contenders continue to pound the NL. I think it's safe to say that the Phils and Rocks won't make it through this gauntlet.

[HarveysWBs]

I know a lot don’t want to cheer for the Cubs, but if we and the Cubs do well in our series we could squash the Phillies playoff hopes real fast in the WC.

 

I want to beat the Cubs in the playoffs. Don’t care if they win the division. I want them to lose to us when it matters most.

 

+1. Brew4U knows what is best in life.

[JohnBriggs12]

The Cubs are relying on guys like Jesse Chavez and Jorge De la Rosa to get key outs late in games. Eventually they will turn into the pumpkins they are. Cishek's arm is about to fall off too. Brandon Kintzler's done more to help the Brewers in a month with the Cubs than he ever did in a Brewer uniform.