2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[KeithStone53151]

I really don't know why we are still so concerned about the Cubs, we are highly unlikely to catch them.

 

I just hope they have something to play for in their final series as we may be wishing for them to beat the Cardinals by then.

 

 

This brings me to my main point, it's sadly time to start cheering on the Cubs.

 

3 games against the phillies - Cubs winning helps the Brewers WC chances

4 games against the nats - Again, Cubs winning this series may eliminate the nats from being any sort of threat.

3 games against the Dbacks - Dbacks may be a team the Brewers fight for a wc spot against

3 games against the cards - By this time every Brewer fan will be wearing cubbie blue for a few days. And this has to make you nervous because the Cubs will have the division clinched before this series starts and will be preparing for the playoffs. Lester will not pitch in this series. Not saying the Cubs will go easy on them, but the Cards will not get the full strength of the cubs.

 

So out of the Cubs final 32 games, 13 of them, almost half, are games the cubs winning helps the brewers chances of making the playoffs.

 

What this tells me, is moreso that all of those are going to be very tough games for the Cubs. Too many people are waiving the white flag because the Cubs got to beat up on bad teams for basically an entire month. The Brewers are literally the only team the Cubs have played so far this month with an above 500 record. Kudos to them for taking advantage of it by going 16-8 thusfar, but I wouldn't say they are this incredibly hot team right now that we can't catch. The Cubs went 6-7 in July out of the all-star break including 8 against the cardinals and 4 against the diamondbacks...also 1 against pitt. This was before the Cardinals went on their crazy August tear too...so you can't argue the Cubs simply ran into a hot team as that is not the case. Against those teams listed above, it's not difficult to imagine the Cubs losing some of those series and letting us climb back in if we can get hot.

[MrTPlush]

Hoping we can go 2-1 at least against Cincy and Philly can go 1-2 or worse against the Nats. That would likely kick one more team out of the WC picture.

[shanedog19]

Hoping we can go 2-1 at least against Cincy and Philly can go 1-2 or worse against the Nats. That would likely kick one more team out of the WC picture.

 

Cincy is in tank mode, really need to sweep them.

[dlk9s]

Eh, it's really hard to sweep even the worst teams. Just win the series and it's cool.

[DaSpark]

What this tells me, is moreso that all of those are going to be very tough games for the Cubs. Too many people are waiving the white flag because the Cubs got to beat up on bad teams for basically an entire month. The Brewers are literally the only team the Cubs have played so far this month with an above 500 record. Kudos to them for taking advantage of it by going 16-8 thusfar, but I wouldn't say they are this incredibly hot team right now that we can't catch. The Cubs went 6-7 in July out of the all-star break including 8 against the cardinals and 4 against the diamondbacks...also 1 against pitt. This was before the Cardinals went on their crazy August tear too...so you can't argue the Cubs simply ran into a hot team as that is not the case. Against those teams listed above, it's not difficult to imagine the Cubs losing some of those series and letting us climb back in if we can get hot.

 

Problem I see though is now they will have Murphy and Bryant to finish the season. Something they didn't have the last month (minus the last week for Murphy). I honestly don't see them having a rough time in those games.

[TigerUppercut]

What this tells me, is moreso that all of those are going to be very tough games for the Cubs. Too many people are waiving the white flag because the Cubs got to beat up on bad teams for basically an entire month. The Brewers are literally the only team the Cubs have played so far this month with an above 500 record. Kudos to them for taking advantage of it by going 16-8 thusfar, but I wouldn't say they are this incredibly hot team right now that we can't catch. The Cubs went 6-7 in July out of the all-star break including 8 against the cardinals and 4 against the diamondbacks...also 1 against pitt. This was before the Cardinals went on their crazy August tear too...so you can't argue the Cubs simply ran into a hot team as that is not the case. Against those teams listed above, it's not difficult to imagine the Cubs losing some of those series and letting us climb back in if we can get hot.

 

Problem I see though is now they will have Murphy and Bryant to finish the season. Something they didn't have the last month (minus the last week for Murphy). I honestly don't see them having a rough time in those games.

 

Maybe but Bryant won't be Bryant and Maddon has acknowledged that in interviews. He'll be much more of a singles/walks hitter than a extra base guy and that's from the horse's mouth.

[dlk9s]

That's the tried and true strategy of underpromising with the intent to overdeliver.

[KeithStone53151]

What this tells me, is moreso that all of those are going to be very tough games for the Cubs. Too many people are waiving the white flag because the Cubs got to beat up on bad teams for basically an entire month. The Brewers are literally the only team the Cubs have played so far this month with an above 500 record. Kudos to them for taking advantage of it by going 16-8 thusfar, but I wouldn't say they are this incredibly hot team right now that we can't catch. The Cubs went 6-7 in July out of the all-star break including 8 against the cardinals and 4 against the diamondbacks...also 1 against pitt. This was before the Cardinals went on their crazy August tear too...so you can't argue the Cubs simply ran into a hot team as that is not the case. Against those teams listed above, it's not difficult to imagine the Cubs losing some of those series and letting us climb back in if we can get hot.

 

Problem I see though is now they will have Murphy and Bryant to finish the season. Something they didn't have the last month (minus the last week for Murphy). I honestly don't see them having a rough time in those games.

 

I think you seriously underestimate the difference between playing a good team that cares in August/September to playing a mediocre team that doesn't care. It's definitely possible that they in fact are heating up and will win 60% of their games down the stretch against good teams. But that absolutely is not a given. They also are at the very beginning of a pretty brutal road stretch. Let's see how they handle the trip to atlanta for 1 and then philly for 3 and us for 3. If they win 5-6 of their next 9 games(including the 2 against the Mets)...then yeah the division is probably theirs. If they take 1 from us, 1 from the phillies, and 1 from the mets(come on Degrom!) and go 3-6 while we go 6-3 or 7-2...it's a new ballgame.

[KeithStone53151]

That's the tried and true strategy of underpromising with the intent to overdeliver.

 

Honestly that's my thought too, definitely a chance Bryant deals with some rust though. Bryant initially might even be preferable to David "I'll never post an OPS over 800 again after the 2018 season" Bote.

[DaSpark]

And here we are about to get blown out by the reds....

[tdcarney22]

It's going to be OKAY! All that matters is we win the series vs Cin. It doesnt matter if we win the last 2, first 2, or 1st/3rd. just that we win the series. Uphill climb to win the last two, but those are MUST wins to me at this point!!!

 

and based on CC's post game presser, i dont think we'll be seeing Guerra again so we don't have to worry about that! Just needed to let him implode last night, its better that way versus a more meaningful game in September.

[Boomer5]

10-13 in August with a 5.50 ERA.

[bm1090]

10-13 in August with a 5.50 ERA.

 

True but we ending July 7-2 in our last 9 and pitching carried us so it doesn't paint a full picture.

[Boomer5]

10-13 in August with a 5.50 ERA.

 

True but we ending July 7-2 in our last 9 and pitching carried us so it doesn't paint a full picture.

 

A big part of our ERA was our team defense which took a major hit with the trades.

[bm1090]

10-13 in August with a 5.50 ERA.

 

True but we ending July 7-2 in our last 9 and pitching carried us so it doesn't paint a full picture.

 

A big part of our ERA was our team defense which took a major hit with the trades.

 

Definitely agree with that.

[MrTPlush]

Our ERA was 5.50 because our pitcher have been that garbage...simple as that. I don’t think a 5.00 ERA is any better. Our defense can’t hold in homeruns (put your hand down Cain!) and they can’t catch line drives.

 

I’m amazed we went 10-13 so far.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Our ERA was 5.50 because our pitcher have been that garbage...simple as that. I don’t think a 5.00 ERA is any better. Our defense can’t hold in homeruns (put your hand down Cain!) and they can’t catch line drives.

 

I’m amazed we went 10-13 so far.

 

I agree ... I think the defensive downgrades have been overblown. Poor defense isn't the reason the pitchers are giving up bombs. Starters have been below average, as they have been all year, but the pen is where they are really getting killed right now. It's been Hader, Jeffress and a barrel of high-octane premium.

[monkeyman343434]

Everyone in the bullpen seemed to be having a career year in the first half, seems like this has been a regression to the mean.

[82brewcrew82]

Now seven behind the Cubs in the loss column for the division and two behind in the loss column to the Cards for the second wild card. Tied in the loss column with Arizona and Colorado. Dodgers within one and Phillies two in the loss column. Say what you want about a lot of time being left but they simply cannot lose a series to a bad team at this point. With football starting it won't take long for the apathy to set in.

[bm1090]

Say it with me. The loss column is no more important than the win column.

 

We are ahead of the entire NL West and the Phillies. The NL West is going to beat the **** out of each other in September. IIRC, Each of the top three teams plays the other two 12+ more times. Brewers just need to get to 88 or 89 wins and that should be enough unless the Phillies get hot again.

[Ennder]

Say it with me. The loss column is no more important than the win column.

 

We are ahead of the entire NL West and the Phillies. The NL West is going to beat the **** out of each other in September. IIRC, Each of the top three teams plays the other two 12+ more times. Brewers just need to get to 88 or 89 wins and that should be enough unless the Phillies get hot again.

 

This is true until there are about 10 games left and realistically it is more like 5 games in which case you start to come into scenarios where even if you play perfect you may not be able to pass the other team. I agree that all this loss column talk is meaningless this far out.

 

I said it above and I'll say it again, the teams record over a 30 game sample is just going to be random. We are likely to win 10, lose 10 and do something with the last 10. Trying to predict what is going to happen over those 10 games is just impossible. Sit back and enjoy the ride but don't stress out about it so much. We can play well and still end up missing the playoffs, we can play poorly and still back into the playoffs. The nature of small sample baseball just makes a month worth of games pretty random.

[FVBrewerFan]

Say it with me. The loss column is no more important than the win column.

 

We are ahead of the entire NL West and the Phillies. The NL West is going to beat the **** out of each other in September. IIRC, Each of the top three teams plays the other two 12+ more times. Brewers just need to get to 88 or 89 wins and that should be enough unless the Phillies get hot again.

 

 

I said it above and I'll say it again, the teams record over a 30 game sample is just going to be random. We are likely to win 10, lose 10 and do something with the last 10. The nature of small sample baseball just makes a month worth of games pretty random.

 

Using pieces of data to support your agenda, a Brewerfan.net tradition since 2001. As you said, they could play really mediocre baseball, even bad at times, and back into the playoffs and win it all. That's baseball. In fact, that's sports in general.

[MrTPlush]

Say what you want about a lot of time being left but they simply cannot lose a series to a bad team at this point.

 

I now hope they get swept and still make the postseason. Because saying they can't lose this series to the Reds is crazy talk. What is the difference between getting swept today and getting swept in four games on June 21-24?

 

We don't know what other teams are going to do the next month or ourselves. Now can we keep losing series? NO! We gotta start winning games, but these games mean just as much as the ones in September.

 

We hold a postseason spot no matter what methodology you want to use. Saying we HAVE to win games when there are over 20+ to go doesn't make any sense. How we do against the Reds is just wins and losses, nothing more meaningful. It is the overall record that really matters. The Dodgers have the best run differential in the entire NL and aren't even in a postseason slot. Wins and losses...don't care against who for either as long as it is good enough for a postseason spot.

[Boomer5]

His point is if you’re not playing well enough to beat the Reds in crunch time then you really aren’t a playoff caliber team.

 

Technically yes they can get swept by the Reds and still win the division but you’re really lowering your odds of getting it done by every loss.

[FVBrewerFan]

Say what you want about a lot of time being left but they simply cannot lose a series to a bad team at this point.

 

I now hope they get swept and still make the postseason. Because saying they can't lose this series to the Reds is crazy talk. What is the difference between getting swept today and getting swept in four games on June 21-24?

 

We don't know what other teams are going to do the next month or ourselves. Now can we keep losing series? NO! We gotta start winning games, but these games mean just as much as the ones in September.

 

We hold a postseason spot no matter what methodology you want to use. Saying we HAVE to win games when there are over 20+ to go doesn't make any sense. How we do against the Reds is just wins and losses, nothing more meaningful. It is the overall record that really matters. The Dodgers have the best run differential in the entire NL and aren't even in a postseason slot. Wins and losses...don't care against who for either as long as it is good enough for a postseason spot.

 

+1

 

I literally saw people using the term "must win" back in June already. I get it, sometimes it seems that way. My guess is people are used to a football season where one game is huge. 30+ games is still a big chunk of the season left, no must win games yet.