2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[bigredrobbo]

Conservatively, I see us winning 17 of the next 30 games and finishing with 90 wins. I think that might get the second WC. If a couple of the 1-2 series defeats go the other way, I think we'll be golden.

[Ennder]

We are 36-38 since June 1. Assuming we play at that pace we will end up with 87 wins.

 

 

Any sample you use that includes the 1-8 stetch is probably going to make things look worse than they are. From the end of that streak until today they are 18-14 for a .562. Before that stretch they were at like a .590 and fell down to a .555. The .560ish winning percentage is probably pretty honestly earned without trying to break it up.

[Brewcrewin07]

Any division chances the Brewers have, may ironically enough come down to this next Cubs series against the Mets..they face Thor and DeGrom..if the Crew can gain two games right there..we've got a race. If though, the Cubs somehow continue to have a horseshoe up their asses and David Bote walks off a 1-0 win for the Cubs only hit(this would be the most Cubs thing ever) off Degrom..then they have no shot.

[KeithStone53151]

Any division chances the Brewers have, may ironically enough come down to this next Cubs series against the Mets..they face Thor and DeGrom..if the Crew can gain two games right there..we've got a race. If though, the Cubs somehow continue to have a horseshoe up their asses and David Bote walks off a 1-0 win for the Cubs only hit(this would be the most Cubs thing ever) off Degrom..then they have no shot.

 

Its fun to track how other teams are doing. But it's way too early to say we are out of it or it comes down to this series when we face them 6 times. Gotta hope other teams help us out for sure.

[dlk9s]

I think realistically we're out of the division race, but clearly we still have a chance, if that makes sense. Like, yes, if we play really well and take it to the Cubs, we can still take the division, but I don't honestly think that will happen.

 

I'll keep hope alive until the math tells me otherwise, though!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I think realistically we're out of the division race, but clearly we still have a chance, if that makes sense. Like, yes, if we play really well and take it to the Cubs, we can still take the division, but I don't honestly think that will happen.

 

I'll keep hope alive until the math tells me otherwise, though!

 

Logic dictates that the Cubs cannot continue to play the other-worldly baseball they have the past couple weeks. As long as the Brewers continue to play well and put pressure on them, I suspect they will remain within striking distance. It sure would be nice to see the Cubs crappy rotation hit another cold spell, though.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think realistically we're out of the division race, but clearly we still have a chance, if that makes sense. Like, yes, if we play really well and take it to the Cubs, we can still take the division, but I don't honestly think that will happen.

 

I'll keep hope alive until the math tells me otherwise, though!

 

If the Brewers are still 4+ games back in three weeks after the dust settles on the Cubs' current extended stretch without a day off that includes 6 games against the Brewers, then I agree. By then the Cubs will have made up most of the extra games they need to play compared to the Brewers, and the season series between the two clubs will be completed. If the Brewers play well the next few weeks and still find themselves a handful of games behind the Cubs, you tip your hat to the team everyone assumed was the class of the division and then focus on locking down a wild card spot to get into the postseason. That being said, it's nice that the Brewers still essentially control their destiny heading into september based on their remaining schedule and their position in the standings.

 

I'm hoping the combination of them facing Syndergaard and DeGrom in their first two games this week coupled with thunderstorms in the Chicago forecast tuesday afternoon through wednesday afternoon leads to a couple losses and a very late plane ride for the Cubs to ATL to start their next road trip. ATL actually has a decent chance of storms this Thursday, followed by what looks like a stormy weekend in Philadelphia at this point, too. Let it storm like crazy, to the point where the Cubs get into Milwaukee at like 7am on the morning they start their 3 game set at 2:20 on Labor Day.

[KeithStone53151]

I think realistically we're out of the division race, but clearly we still have a chance, if that makes sense. Like, yes, if we play really well and take it to the Cubs, we can still take the division, but I don't honestly think that will happen.

 

I'll keep hope alive until the math tells me otherwise, though!

 

If the Brewers are still 4+ games back in three weeks after the dust settles on the Cubs' current extended stretch without a day off that includes 6 games against the Brewers, then I agree. By then the Cubs will have made up most of the extra games they need to play compared to the Brewers, and the season series between the two clubs will be completed. If the Brewers play well the next few weeks and still find themselves a handful of games behind the Cubs, you tip your hat to the team everyone assumed was the class of the division and then focus on locking down a wild card spot to get into the postseason. That being said, it's nice that the Brewers still essentially control their destiny heading into september based on their remaining schedule and their position in the standings.

 

I'm hoping the combination of them facing Syndergaard and DeGrom in their first two games this week coupled with thunderstorms in the Chicago forecast tuesday afternoon through wednesday afternoon leads to a couple losses and a very late plane ride for the Cubs to ATL to start their next road trip. ATL actually has a decent chance of storms this Thursday, followed by what looks like a stormy weekend in Philadelphia at this point, too. Let it storm like crazy, to the point where the Cubs get into Milwaukee at like 7am on the morning they start their 3 game set at 2:20 on Labor Day.

 

Did you also notice that the cubs getaway game during the labor day series is a night game on Wednesday and they play right away on that Thursday? I have to think that's definitely retaliation for their shenanigans last year. Need to do that 4 or 5 times to get close to even with the nonsense from last year

[lcbj68c]

I believe we'll know the fate of the NL Central by the night of Sept 12. I feel as if the Brewers MUST go 4-2 vs Chicago to have any shot. 3-3, means making up 6 losses over 30 games or so, just seems highly unlikely. Go 2-4 vs Chicago and put a nail in it. In my opinion, STL is the team I want to see start losing. They are way overachieving in the 2nd half and it's miserable.

[brewcrewdue80]

New week. 11 whittled down to 8 above .500 picture and goal seems to be90 wins. As close as this is, i think 2 teams finish with 89 wins. 1 stumbles to 85 with H2H losses. This is going down to the final game of Regular Season to decide. I do feel Milw has one of the easier looking schedules to get to 90. Tbh, youre kinda rooting for the current division leaders to win the H2Hs of the wild card contenders. Arizona/Atlanta. Those two take care of business we'll get in much easier.

[KeithStone53151]

New week. 11 whittled down to 8 above .500 picture and goal seems to be90 wins. As close as this is, i think 2 teams finish with 89 wins. 1 stumbles to 85 with H2H losses. This is going down to the final game of Regular Season to decide. I do feel Milw has one of the easier looking schedules to get to 90. Tbh, youre kinda rooting for the current division leaders to win the H2Hs of the wild card contenders. Arizona/Atlanta. Those two take care of business we'll get in much easier.

 

That's true, I'm still hopeful at some point during the stretch...the cubs lose 5 of 7 or something and the gap closes. But as for Atlanta/Arizona...I completely agree we are better off with those 2 teams beating up LAD/COL/Phil.

[brewcrewdue80]

Okay dug in on Playoff team contending games remaining for the 8 NL teams Basically breaks down as:

Atl- 1/CHC 4/ARZ 3/STL 7/PHI 15games 17 if you include 2 vs Tampa

Phi- 3/CHC 7/ATL 4/COL 14games

Chc- 1/ATL 3/PHI 6/MIL 3/ARI 3/STL 16games

STL- 4/LAD 3/ATL 3/MIL 3/CHC 13games

MIL- 6/CHC 3/STL 9games

 

ARI- 7/LAD 3/ATL 7/COL 3/CHC 3/HOU 23games

COL- 6/LAD 7/ARI 4/PHI 17games

LAD- 7/ARI 6/COL 4/STL 17games

 

This is more comforting to see as we have the least amount of games vs +.500 teams remaining. As well as less H2H on 2 game swings. Wow on what Arizona has left! No wonder the Dodgers are ahead of them for Playoff making pct.

[pacopete4]

This is the time of the year, each year, that I remember the genius idea of Doug Melvin to only allow so many to be active for September games. Cannot stand that teams get to play 40 players each night. Not only does it make the games painfully long, it just changes the games too much. Let them activate 30 a night and play ball. This changes playoff races each and every year.

[tmwiese55]

Right, some of this Cubs daunting schedule to end will be mitigated by them being able to have the expanded rosters and pitchers for it. Whereas MKE had to go through their terrible stretch mid season and it killed their bullpen.

[adambr2]

I really don't know why we are still so concerned about the Cubs, we are highly unlikely to catch them.

 

I just hope they have something to play for in their final series as we may be wishing for them to beat the Cardinals by then.

[bm1090]

Phillies, Dbacks, and Rockies all lose. Rockies lost a tough one.

 

The Brewers are now ahead of the entire NL West

[brewcrewdue80]

Well this will make Magic number figuring out easy:

https://www.playoffmagic.com/mlb/league/

 

How cool is that!

[DaSpark]

I really don't know why we are still so concerned about the Cubs, we are highly unlikely to catch them.

 

I just hope they have something to play for in their final series as we may be wishing for them to beat the Cardinals by then.

 

I agree, the Cubs are going to be next to impossible for the Brewers to catch. Murphy has provided the much needed spark their offense needed in the last week. Then you factor in that Bryant is about to return.

 

Cubs have 32 games left and about best case for the brewers is they go .500 and win only 16. That puts them at 93 wins.

Brewers have 30 games left and would have to win 20 just to tie in this scenario.

 

However, lets be realistic because the Cubs are not a .500 team and they are red hot right now. I honestly don't see the Cubs winning any less than 19 of their final 32. That puts the Cubs at 96 wins. The brewers would have to win 23 just to tie, which means only losing 7 more games this season. That's .766 ball the Brewers have to play in the final month to even have a shot at the division. The only real shot the Brewers have to catch the Cubs is winning all 6 against the Cubs.

 

This brings me to my main point, it's sadly time to start cheering on the Cubs.

 

3 games against the phillies - Cubs winning helps the Brewers WC chances

4 games against the nats - Again, Cubs winning this series may eliminate the nats from being any sort of threat.

3 games against the Dbacks - Dbacks may be a team the Brewers fight for a wc spot against

3 games against the cards - By this time every Brewer fan will be wearing cubbie blue for a few days. And this has to make you nervous because the Cubs will have the division clinched before this series starts and will be preparing for the playoffs. Lester will not pitch in this series. Not saying the Cubs will go easy on them, but the Cards will not get the full strength of the cubs.

 

So out of the Cubs final 32 games, 13 of them, almost half, are games the cubs winning helps the brewers chances of making the playoffs.

[tmwiese55]

Agree, I'd pretty much think no chance to catch the Cubs unless we beat them 5/6 heads up. That gives us a chance but still even a long way to go after that as you have to take care of business vs the lesser teams too. So, very unlikely. Just keep getting your 2 of 3 and you'll be ok

[OldSchoolSnapper]

We couldn't ask for a better position. We play almost nobody in contention besides CHC and they are running away with the division.

 

My biggest fear is getting swept the second to last series in STL as that would be classic Brewers.

[DaSpark]

We couldn't ask for a better position. We play almost nobody in contention besides CHC and they are running away with the division.

 

My biggest fear is getting swept the second to last series in STL as that would be classic Brewers.

 

I don't know. 6 games against the Cubs and 3 against the Cards. That's almost a 3rd of the schedule right there.

 

Pirates, Nats, and Giants are probably all out of it but at the same time are not cake walks.

 

Reds and Tigers (9 games) are the ones the Brewers really need to take advantage of. As in, winning like 7 of them.

 

9 out of the final 30 are going to be tough games against contenders

11 out of the final 30 will be games the brewers really need to shine in against average teams.

9 of out of the final 30 are games against sub-par teams that the Brewers either take advantage of or make vacation plans for October.

[Fear The Chorizo]

At some point the Cubs will lose a game - I get that the division seems out of reach right now because they appear to be walking on water and winning every night, but I always go back to some relatively recent seasons where teams made up double digit deficits in September to make the playoffs. I'm not saying the Cubs are going to up and collapse, but scuffling through the next 5 weeks playing at or slightly below 0.500 would open the door for both the Brewers or Cardinals to catch them if they caught fire, particularly the Brewers with 6 remaining games against them. A ton can still happen in the standings over ~30 games, particularly with so many H2H matchups.

 

Keeping my fingers crossed Wrigley gets a nice dose of Tstorms tonight and into tomorrow to completely jack up their remaining two games against the Mets before having to fly to ATL...

 

I like the position the Brewers are in, but I also want them chasing the division to have a shot at as many playoff spots as possible.

[DaSpark]

At some point the Cubs will lose a game - I get that the division seems out of reach right now because they appear to be walking on water and winning every night, but I always go back to some relatively recent seasons where teams made up double digit deficits in September to make the playoffs. I'm not saying the Cubs are going to up and collapse, but scuffling through the next 5 weeks playing at or slightly below 0.500 would open the door for both the Brewers or Cardinals to catch them if they caught fire, particularly the Brewers with 6 remaining games against them. A ton can still happen in the standings over ~30 games, particularly with so many H2H matchups.

 

Keeping my fingers crossed Wrigley gets a nice dose of Tstorms tonight and into tomorrow to completely jack up their remaining two games against the Mets before having to fly to ATL...

 

I like the position the Brewers are in, but I also want them chasing the division to have a shot at as many playoff spots as possible.

 

Very unlikely the Cubs play under .500 in the final month. Of course it is possible, but just not likely. The Cubs appear to be hitting their stride right now more than anything. Tonight might actually be a game to pay attention to with the Cubs. They are facing degrom and if they have their way with him then you know the Cubs are not going to falter.

 

The 6 head to head match-ups is truly the big shot the brewers have. However, I have a feeling those games will be split or maybe the Brewers get 4 at the most. Sweeping them will be next to impossible.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm not ready to write off catching the cubs at minimum until the labor day series. A 3 game sweep would completely change the dynamic of the race. It definitely isn't likely, but big September sweeps have happened before and could happen this time. Despite the doom and gloom cloud, the Brewers are actually playing pretty well overall. Aguilar and Thames have cooled off but pretty much everyone else is playing pretty well right now, even Arcia is a bit better and more of a 700 ops guy right now. The Cubs are also nearing the end of their cupcake August schedule. Their last 3 series have been against the tiger, reds, and mets...and earlier this month they had the royals and padres. 2 more easy ones and that's about it, they'll have to do more to earn wins down the stretch.

[pacopete4]

It really doesn't bother me that the Cubs are playing the way they are. What stinks is that the Cardinals somehow found life in their season and look to be a real contender and not going away anytime soon. That is a bummer because it always feels like the Crew can't catch a break with that stuff. But it is what it is and it'll be great to hopefully knock out the Cards in a one game playoff and then go after those Cubbies.