2018 Standings and Playoff Race Discussion

[Eye Black]

Now that most teams are around the 30 games played mark I thought we could start a thread to discuss the standings and playoff races as the year progresses.

 

The projected playoff odds are updated daily at these two links:

 

Baseball Prospectus playoff odds

 

Fangraphs playoff odds

 

As we sit here on May 3rd BP now projects the Brewers for 86 wins and a 49.4% chance to make the playoffs. Fangraphs continues to be more bearish with a 82 win projection and a 24.1% chance to make the playoffs.

 

My biggest surprise so far this season is that while there are currently a total of 10 (out of 15) teams in the National League that have winning records, among those teams with sub-.500 records are the Nationals and Dodgers. Both still maintain relatively high playoff odds, however.

 

The Brewers have a tough May schedule coming up, among the 25 games remaining this month only the Twins have a losing record. The other May opponents (Pirates, Indians, Rockies, Dbacks x2, Mets, Cardinals) are a combined 105-74 this season. Of course the positive way to look at it is winning some series in May, especially against other likely playoff contenders, could provide a big boost to the Brewers playoff probabilities.

[adambr2]

As you said right now the NL is highly competitive. You could make a pretty strong argument that there are only 3 "bad" teams (Marlins, Reds, Padres). The rest, including L.A, could reasonably consider themselves buyers if this continues, although I expect (hope?) to see Pittsburgh slip into that group as well.

 

The A.L. is not a whole lot different. Just a few very bad teams at the bottom, a lot of competitive teams at the top.

 

There is still a lot of time and some teams will fall off, and perhaps some teams that aren't doing so well right now like the Dodgers and Twins might rebound. Still, if this trend continues, here's what I would guess we see:

 

- Very little separation from beginning to end in races, with highly competitive division races that come down to the last week, and perhaps 90 games winning a division while 88 win teams sit at home.

 

- A barren trade deadline market for buyers, and a great market for sellers who can essentially name their price, even on rentals. Teams like the Cubs, who have very little to offer from their farm system, can forget about getting any real deadline help without parting with MLB pieces like Schwarber or Happ.

 

- Perhaps, deadline deals that involve teams that are both buyers, trading surplus areas to try to shore up a weak area. For example, if we take our time with Nelson and he doesn't return until July, if we have starters like Guerra, Chacin and Miley performing at high levels then, would it make sense to try to swing a deal with a contender who may have a very weak starting rotation but high level middle infielders with their own internal high prospects ready to take those spots? It's possible.

 

Obviously, this is all speculative right now, just something fun to talk about because it's May.

[bill hAll Star]

The NL has started to turn into what the AL was the past 5 or so years.

 

The last few years, there were about 6 teams trying and the rest were tanking or just bad in the NL while in the AL you had only 2-3 teams that were not trying or not good. This stuff is cyclical, of course, and here we are.

 

The Braves, Phillies, D-Backs (last year), Rockies (last year), Brewers (gradual) all coming of age has made the middle of the pack much more interesting. I've always thought the Pirates are pretty well run in the past few years, so even their downturn years, they may stay competitive.

 

What's really interesting is that I think the Padres and Reds may be coming out of their slumber in the next year or two. Of course, the Nats, Rockies, or Cards or somebody in the mix could collapse, but it may get even more competitive.

 

The Marlins seem to be the only team that are fairly far off from competing but they'll assuredly be back in the mix in 3 years.

 

I guess the Reds also do have the feel of failing their tank/rebuild and going right back into another one. Half of their guys have come up and are not all that impressive (yet) and they've got Senzel and others waiting in the wings, but it may not be enough given that Votto is going to start his decline soon.

[pacopete4]

It would make a lot of sense for the rest of the NL to get really good as the Brewers start to be competitive.

[KeithStone53151]

The Brewers have gotten off to a good start by taking care of business against bad teams. The next month or so will really test them. If we win 15 games or more in May, our playoff odds should spike significantly.

 

Who's ready for the Cubs to start having injuries? It seems like every team in baseball is dealing with at least 2 significant injuries to their better players except the Cubs. Their run of luck on that front should run out eventually, and then maybe they'll see a run like the Dodgers and Nationals are currently.

[bill hAll Star]

Who's ready for the Cubs to start having injuries? It seems like every team in baseball is dealing with at least 2 significant injuries to their better players except the Cubs. Their run of luck on that front should run out eventually, and then maybe they'll see a run like the Dodgers and Nationals are currently.

 

You're going to die on this hill, aren't you?

 

They already had Rizzo on the DL, Bryant out for about a week, and Russell (yeah, not worth a ton but still a starter) on the shelf.

 

I know you generally comment on their pitching staff having no depth, but they do have Montgomery if needed as a 6th starter. Eddie Butler is probably about as good as Suter if a real emergency strikes.

 

It's true that they are a bit thin there, but they've had plenty of injuries. Epstein may have drained their farm system, but he's still shrewd in keeping replacement-level options available in some capacity.

[3and2Fastball]

With the significantly more difficult schedule coming up in the next several weeks, as compared to who they've faced so far, we will have a much better idea if the Brewers are contenders or pretenders by June 1st

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

Who's ready for the Cubs to start having injuries? It seems like every team in baseball is dealing with at least 2 significant injuries to their better players except the Cubs. Their run of luck on that front should run out eventually, and then maybe they'll see a run like the Dodgers and Nationals are currently.

 

You're going to die on this hill, aren't you?

 

They already had Rizzo on the DL, Bryant out for about a week, and Russell (yeah, not worth a ton but still a starter) on the shelf.

 

I know you generally comment on their pitching staff having no depth, but they do have Montgomery if needed as a 6th starter. Eddie Butler is probably about as good as Suter if a real emergency strikes.

 

It's true that they are a bit thin there, but they've had plenty of injuries. Epstein may have drained their farm system, but he's still shrewd in keeping replacement-level options available in some capacity.

Yeah Zobrist has been on the DL already too. I think I saw that Bryant/Rizzo have only been in the lineup together for about half their games. Butler is currently on the DL with a minor injury like ankle or groin or hamstring or something not arm related. They've been hit with injuries a decent amount already. Plus like you said they have some depth at pitching and their top prospect has taken no-hitters in to the 6th twice already this year in AAA. Sure they could lose a guy or two for a few months then it's interesting but that's some wishful thinking. The best or more likely route for beating them is hoping that the non-Bryant/Rizzo guys all stink on offense and the starting pitching remains inconsistent like it has been for a good chunk of the year.

 

They've also had one of the hardest schedules so far this year, after their first 5 games they haven't played a team under .500 and they really aren't playing well but still over .500. They probably are going to win 93-97 games if things break like you would project and not have any crazy variance or injuries.

[CrewFanBrewMan69]

With the significantly more difficult schedule coming up in the next several weeks, as compared to who they've faced so far, we will have a much better idea if the Brewers are contenders or pretenders by June 1st

Yup, I'm excited and cautiously optimistic. We need to play well the next month and hopefully are at least 2-3 games over .500 come June 1st. I was looking ahead and we get a little unlucky against the Indians, we have to face Kluber and Carrasco in the two game series next week. Too bad we didn't get their weaker pitchers.

[tmwiese55]

AZ running out of the gates hurts the Brewers imo. Almost assures at least one of the WC comes out of the west since the Dodgers are almost for sure going to make the playoffs. Only leaves one WC.

[benji]

Not so sure about the Dodgers. They are getting hit hard with injuries.

 

 

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[bill hAll Star]

Not so sure about the Dodgers. They are getting hit hard with injuries.

 

 

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Agree. I'd still bet on them to make it, but I'm not so sure. Seager is out for the year, Turner is out for a while, Kershaw's velocity is down, Hill and Ryu are out for a bit, Kenley's velocity is down, Puig is out, Bellinger is still a great hitter but I think is sliding in to more of what we expect - a guy that doesn't have an insane ISO and is more like a 30 HR guy, not a 40+ HR guy like he'd have been if he played the whole year.

 

A lot of things going wrong for them. They should be back next year, but I could definitely see them not making it this year.

[JohnBriggs12]

The NL Central teams all benefit by playing the woeful AL Central this year. Chances are that one if not both wild card teams will come from the Central. Last year the NL West played the AL Central.

[JohnBriggs12]

Molina is out for a month at least. He might be the most irreplaceable guy in the division because he impacts not just their offense but their pitching as well.

[MadThinker88]

The NL Central teams all benefit by playing the woeful AL Central this year. Chances are that one if not both wild card teams will come from the Central. Last year the NL West played the AL Central.

 

You raise a good point regarding the weakness of the AL Central this season. The 'weakest' schedule would be 14 games combined vs Royals/ Tigers/ ChiSox. No one got that lucky..

 

It got me to wondering which of Pitts/ St. Louis/ ChiCubs got the greatest schedule advantage (thinking more than 6 vs Tribe & Twins makes it a tougher road). The Brewers play 10 games between Tribe (4)/ Twins (6).

St. Louis gets 6 vs the Royals, 4 vs ChiSox & Twins so 7 total vs Tribe & Twins

Pittsburgh gets 6 vs the Tigers (went 5-1), 4 vs ChiSox (all this month) & Twins so 7 total vs Tribe & Twins.

ChiCubs gets 6 vs the ChiSox, 4 vs Tribe & Tigers so 7 total vs Tribe & Twins..

[young guns]

Maybe I'm missing something but shouldn't stl, Pitt, and chi all be 4 not 7? So we have 10 games vs the top 2 vs 4 for the other 3 teams we are competing against?

[MadThinker88]

Maybe I'm missing something but shouldn't stl, Pitt, and chi all be 4 not 7? So we have 10 games vs the top 2 vs 4 for the other 3 teams we are competing against?

 

The way it is set up now, teams have the natural inter-league rival (tends to be 4 games, 2 & 2 setup) & you play the entirety of another division. Most of those teams are 3 game series (2 home series, 2 away series) & 1 team is a 4 game set (2H, 2A). Hence 20 games inter-league. 10 at home and 10 away & the number of series is balanced home/away.

 

When your turn comes against the division of the natural rival (Mke/ Minn, Cin/ Cle, Chicago/Chicago), the game math needs to change to get to 20. The natural rival goes from 4 to 6 games (3H, 3A), 2 others are 4 games set (2H, 2A) and the remaining 2 teams get 3 game series (1H, 1A). This creates the same result of 20 inter-league games, 10 at home & 10 away and the number of series is balance home/away.

 

This year, the Brewers get 6 vs the Twins, 4 vs the Tribe, 4 vs the Royals and 3 game sets at the White Sox & home vs Tigers (to end the season)..

[JosephC]

Nice to see that we are already looking at how many times the Brewers match up against bad teams because so far that's the only way they've been able to win games.

 

Against the Padres, Reds, Marlins, Royals = Brewers are 14-1

Against everybody else = Brewers are 6-14

[young guns]

What I meant was I was missing part of your math. You omitted the 2, 3 game series from the post so it was confusing me. But now I've got you.

[young guns]

Against the Padres, Reds, Marlins, Royals = Brewers are 14-1

Against everybody else = Brewers are 6-14

Not to single you out but this bugs me to a degree. Yes it tells a story, but it's also a skewed story. I could say we are 14-1 against bad teams, 1-7 against the Cubs, and 5-7 against everyone else and since we will play more bad teams combined than the Cubs we will be fine. Either way this month is gonna be a good test for us. If we can play about 500, then I think we should be fine till the reinforcements(Nelson, knebel, maybe Vogt, hopefully one of doubon or orf to solidify 2nd, and/or some trades) arrive. Heck, santana looks like he might be coming around so thats a start.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

Yeah, I do think the good/bad team stuff is overrated. It's going to even out long term. No way they play .940 ball against bad teams, but i think they'll do better than .330 against good ones too.

 

I think a big part of baseball is weathering stretches where you play poorly. Just absolutely rolling against bad teams has allowed this team to be 20-15 despite not playing very well overall, especially on offense.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Didn't fully realize it until Cleveland came to town tonight and I checked the standings - man is the AL Central a dumpster fire of a division this season...I fully expect Cleveland to take off and win the division easily and the Twins are probably decent, but the rest is atrocious.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Didn't fully realize it until Cleveland came to town tonight and I checked the standings - man is the AL Central a dumpster fire of a division this season...I fully expect Cleveland to take off and win the division easily and the Twins are probably decent, but the rest is atrocious.

 

 

Yeah, the Indians are in a division that 83 wins could realistically win the crown, and the Brewers are in a division that 86 wins could potentially land you in 4th....

[Eye Black]

The Astros lead all of baseball with a +88 Run Differential (the next closest is the Red Sox at +67), but they only have two more wins than the Brewers who have a +1 Run Differential (runs scored minus runs allowed) following this Rockies series.

[dlk9s]

I'm confused by this thread's title. I really didn't think race had anything to do with the playoffs.