Wade Miley Eat Crow Thread

[sveumrules]

Wade Miley allowed a wOBA of .283 this year versus an expected wOBA of .302 per Statcast.

 

His differential of -.019 made him one of the 40 "luckiest" pitchers in baseball this year, minimun 250 PAs against.

 

How much of that "luck" was due to defense, shifting, random variation, etc is impossible to really tell.

 

Other Brewer pitchers who were "lucky" this year by producing an actual wOBA lower than their expected wOBA included Hader (-.011), Anderson (-.012), Peralta (-.015), Jeffress (-.025), Chacin (-.029) & Burnes (-.045).

 

Corbin's mark of -.045 was actually 7th "luckiest" out of 438 pitchers with at least 150 PAs against this season.

[igor67]

Has anyone looked at BABIP vs. inning in the game? If the normal expectation on the relationship for BABIP is driven by starters getting tired and hit harder that 3rd time around that might be another feature of the quick hook and explain part of the drop. I just don't know if BABIP tends to rise along with the rest of the hitting stats as pitchers go deeper.

 

From an ERA perspective though the quick hook and protecting starters from the multi-run mid innings is certainly going to improve their stat lines.

[istanbultaye]

I don't know if BABIP / times through the order is significant or not, but in terms of standard rate stats, the Brewers practice of generally limiting their starter's exposure to being seen the 3rd time around unless they were simply fantastic that game, has clearly also helped the staff (and Miley) outperform the "expected" results to an extent as well.

[homer]

Has anyone looked at BABIP vs. inning in the game? If the normal expectation on the relationship for BABIP is driven by starters getting tired and hit harder that 3rd time around that might be another feature of the quick hook and explain part of the drop. I just don't know if BABIP tends to rise along with the rest of the hitting stats as pitchers go deeper.

 

From an ERA perspective though the quick hook and protecting starters from the multi-run mid innings is certainly going to improve their stat lines.

 

Interesting theory. My uneducated guess is that BABIP doesn't fluctuate much for guys with low K rates (like Miley) but maybe more their rate of hard contact gets worse as games go on.

[Thurston Fluff]

Has anyone looked at BABIP vs. inning in the game? If the normal expectation on the relationship for BABIP is driven by starters getting tired and hit harder that 3rd time around that might be another feature of the quick hook and explain part of the drop. I just don't know if BABIP tends to rise along with the rest of the hitting stats as pitchers go deeper.

 

From an ERA perspective though the quick hook and protecting starters from the multi-run mid innings is certainly going to improve their stat lines.

 

Interesting theory. My uneducated guess is that BABIP doesn't fluctuate much for guys with low K rates (like Miley) but maybe more their rate of hard contact gets worse as games go on.

 

That is an intersting theory igor67. I think if the hard hit rate goes up BABIP is likely to do so as well.

[Lathund]

Looking at the statcast stats, it's quite interesting to see that Miley has been in the top 20 (Among 300-odd pitchers with 150 batted ball events recorded) in lowest exit velocity against. It gets even better when you look at the exit velocity on line drives and fly balls, where he is second. The leader in that category FWIW is Joakim Soria. So when he does give up hard hit balls, they're usually grounders, which he induces 50% of the time. And 50% of the balls put into play are pulled, which is 5th in MLB among pitchers with 60+ IP. Those ground balls are pulled, by RHH, to one of the better defensive SS-3B combos in the league in Arcia + Moose/Shaw.

 

So I do think there are reasons to believe that Miley is "for real" in a sense, and might be one of those guys who outperforms their peripherals as long as the team plays to his strengths. To do it by as much as he has this season, however, is probably unrealistic. The low HR run, with a HR/FB% of 5.2%, the 11th lowest in the majors, is in all likelyhood not sustainable. I'd like to see one lefty in the rotaiton next year (Helps make the RH relievers better too), and I wouldn't mind if that was Miley. But I also wouldn't want to commit too much; Even if he has made real changes, and even if he certanily looks to be a better pitcher, it's still a very small sample size to go on. That K-BB% or K:BB ratio is rather worrisome in that the margins for error are very small.

[YungTeeler]

Anyone want another helping?

[Pugger]

I was sorry to see CC take Miley out today.

[tigerbrew]

Hope the Brewers retain him for next season.