Wade Miley Eat Crow Thread

[Lathund]

Seems to be attribution of performances of the defense. Looking at BR, Jake has a -.69, and Chacin has a .8 for the team's defensive adjustment.

 

Thanks, I guess I thought pitcher WAR was heavily FIP weighed but I guess Broxton and Cain taking away HR's has to matter too. I was looking at BR before posing this knew I was missing something there and that was it.

 

Baseball-reference WAR uses RA9 (Runs allowed per 9 innings) while adjusting for defense as the basis of their WAR (bWAR or rWAR) calculations, while Fangraphs (fWAR) uses FIP, though they also offer RA9-based version. Baseball Prospectus uses their own DRA (Deserved Run Average) stat as the basis for their WARP. They use different, but very similar for bWAR and fWAR, calculations for offense as well. Less similar (DRS (bWAR) vs UZR (fWAR)) for defense, and I'm not quite sure about baserunning. I believe the only one that really tries to capture a catchers value, including framing, is WARP.

 

For position players, due to DRS and UZR sometimes differing a lot, I think it's usually best to average out bWAR and fWAR. For instance, Cain leads the NL with 5.3 bWAR (Carpenter and Freeman follow at 4.6) but is 6th in fWAR at 3.6, with Arenado (4.4) and Freeman (4.3) at the top. For similar reasons, always remember that small differences in WAR aren't very meaningful; you can't say that a 4.3 WAR player is better than a 3.9 WAR player, just that they're both in all likelyhood better (or were more valuable in the time period being compared) than a 2.5 WAR player. It's just a rough estimate of their combined worth over a certain period of time.

 

For pitchers, fWAR and BWARP would be better at predicting future performances and isolates actual pitcher performance better, but bWAR reflects the outcome and results better. And for comparing catchers only WARP really even tries to properly value defense at the position. Sadly, I find the Baseball Prospectus stat pages to be very user-unfriendly and clunky.

[istanbultaye]

Not really sure the best thread to put this in, but I'll put it here. This season has really opened my eyes to how much impact having an elite defense really does have on the success of a pitching staff. The Brewers have had some good defensive players in the past, but this is the first year they've ever had such a high quality defense all around, and it's made a big difference. Some of the free agent/trade target pitchers rumored in the offseason would look a lot better with the Brewer's D behind them, but on the other hand, they probably wouldn't have been much better than what we've gotten so far from the rotation.

 

Regarding Miley, and any of the pitchers, I think the biggest takeaway so far this year is that, although extremist viewpoints might allow for some flashy posts, either side of the argument is going to likely end up looking foolish. Miley was considered by many as being not able to even pitch any quality innings for the Brewers, but likewise, outside of the optimism thread, just because he's had some good results so far doesn't mean we should be anointing him for the injury plagued version of the cy young award either.

[adambr2]

Brewers to Darnell Coles: "Whatever you need, Darnell. Trade for Yelich? Not good enough? Let's get Cain, too. We're going to get you so many studs you can't even start them all. Then we're going to do the same thing at the trade deadline."

 

Brewers to Derek Johnson: "I dunno. Here's Jhoulys Chacin and Wade Miley. Figure it out."

[superfly]

I feel like you cold say similar for most of Stearns signing/trades. There wasn't a lot of positive reaction for Chacin, some very negative, and he's been pretty great.People scratching their head over the Moustakas trade as if Shaw can't play 2nd base. I think he'll be passable there. For years people saying Braun couldn't possibly play 1st base. Not saying he's great there, but it's not that big of a deal if he plays games there. Everyone was speculating Aguilar wouldn't make the team, did the Brewers ever hint this? Etc

 

It seems skewed because the "misses" are often quickly jettisoned, ala Brad Miller. Others that fall into that category include Boone Logan and Neftali Feliz.

 

This is even more important than the ones Stearns has hit on. He knows where the risk/reward is, yet at the same time he knows when it's time to cut bait...rather than ride something into the ground praying for miracles.

[djoctagone]

Prior to the great start last night, Miley walked 13 batters in only 22 innings.

 

If he keeps doing more of that instead of limiting walks like last night, it's only a matter of when those free passes start crossing the plate.

 

Walks have been Miley's biggest problem through out his career and it will likely determine whether he can be productive with the Brewers going forward.

only one walk in 6.0 innings last night. that's a good thing, because the braves were putting the ball in play like crazy.

 

he's now at 19 walks in 40.1 innings . . . a much improved ratio.

[Brewer Fever]

Article explaining a change in Wade Miley's repertoire made last year that has yielded positive results. Derek Johnson has been a proponent of this particular change (specifically a pitch) and could shed light on why there was interest on the Brewers' end...

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/08/16/cut-fastball-has-helped-give-brewers-wade-miley-new-life/994324002/?from=new-cookie

[Brewever]

Article explaining a change in Wade Miley's repertoire made last year that has yielded positive results. Derek Johnson has been a proponent of this particular change (specifically a pitch) and could shed light on why there was interest on the Brewers' end...

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/08/16/cut-fastball-has-helped-give-brewers-wade-miley-new-life/994324002/?from=new-cookie

 

 

The cutter has given alot of pitchers new life or addition to their repertoire. I remember hearing years ago and since about many pitchers adding the cutter and adding years to their career. I like DJ but the genie has been out for sometime

 

 

Old news

 

 

What is more interesting is the attack on hitters up in the zone with the FB from Our hardest thrower to softest.

 

When you find that article for me, holla

[DHonks]

Article explaining a change in Wade Miley's repertoire made last year that has yielded positive results. Derek Johnson has been a proponent of this particular change (specifically a pitch) and could shed light on why there was interest on the Brewers' end...

 

https://www.jsonline.com/story/sports/mlb/brewers/2018/08/16/cut-fastball-has-helped-give-brewers-wade-miley-new-life/994324002/?from=new-cookie

 

 

The cutter has given alot of pitchers new life or addition to their repertoire. I remember hearing years ago and since about many pitchers adding the cutter and adding years to their career. I like DJ but the genie has been out for sometime

 

 

Old news

 

 

What is more interesting is the attack on hitters up in the zone with the FB from Our hardest thrower to softest.

 

When you find that article for me, holla

 

 

That’s what Doug Davis, Sheets, etc thrived. When Ben scrapped the 2-seamer and let the 4-seamer fly, his velocity jumped and he dramatically increased his Ks as a result of the high cheese becoming a 2nd strikeout pitch.

[Brewever]

Wasn't there a point where like everyone was trying to throw the cutter. And some guys could do it some couldnt.

[jerichoholicninja]

The cutter was the vogue pitch about 10 years ago. The Orioles made Arrieta stop throwing it because they thought he would get injured and he sucked. When he was traded to the Cubs they told him to throw it again and he was good. Derek Johnson was probably with the Cubs at that time.

[bill hAll Star]

I think I had posted the % of pitch change in the other Miley thread a week or so ago...I've been watching this with various pitchers around the league lately.

 

Gerritt Cole, potentially Lance Lynn (judging on a handful of games with the Yankees), Trevor Bauer, Kyle Gibson, and others have had renaissances in their careers with a different pitching repertoire. Nothing new I'm sure but I think we are seeing more of it with data-driven approaches.

[And That]

Wade Miley tho.

[StearnBrewliever]

I dropped Miley in fantasy way early this year. Makes me sick.

[homer]

At this point even David Stearns is eating crow about Miley.

[Warning Track Power]

I dropped Miley in fantasy way early this year. Makes me sick.

I dropped Chacin after his first 2-3 starts

[And That]

he's now at 19 walks in 40.1 innings . . . a much improved ratio.

Now 22 walks in 57.2 innings. Second most valuable Brewers' starter by bWAR after today's start.

 

It's almost like he's not a terrible, incompetent hack.

[bigredrobbo]

I think Miley is the reverse Chris Archer, who, by the nature of a good start to his career, has a reputation his numbers don't back up.

[Ennder]

I will do the opposite of eating crow though I didn't think he would be this good. Looking at his actual stats looks like a lot of this is smoke and mirrors. He has pitched like a low to mid 4 ERA pitcher and just got good results.

 

Wade Miley actually projects to be an above replacement level pitcher. If they find even a small tweak to help him I fully buy him rebounding into a useful pitcher. Thinking otherwise is just pessimistic thinking. Two years ago he got hit by the homer bug and last year he completely lost his command which is normally quite good. If they can fix that command he is back to a mid 4 ERA guy.

 

Gallardo is just done though. Nothing in his peripherals suggest he can be more than a replacement level pitcher at the major league level. Using him to start a few times due to injuries is probably fine but penciling him in for more than a handful of stats means the team did not do its job building rotational depth.

 

 

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=36398&p=1093445&hilit=Miley#p1093445

[istanbultaye]

Miley had a good start to his career, but it did slowly go down hill and his '16/'17 were pretty bad, as noted at length in prior threads by many. One could see the cause for concern prior to the season, in imagining Miley as a key piece in the rotation. But, to me, it was pretty clear he was signed to be an option for the rotation, and his earlier years gave reason to believe he could be a solid pitcher. That said, he has out performed any expectations even of the most positive outlooks anyone could have had for the move, so kudos to him for working through the injuries, and the Brewers for giving him that chance, when many teams might have kicked him to the curb with the injury in spring.

[istanbultaye]

I will do the opposite of eating crow though I didn't think he would be this good. Looking at his actual stats looks like a lot of this is smoke and mirrors. He has pitched like a low to mid 4 ERA pitcher and just got good results.

 

Wade Miley actually projects to be an above replacement level pitcher. If they find even a small tweak to help him I fully buy him rebounding into a useful pitcher. Thinking otherwise is just pessimistic thinking. Two years ago he got hit by the homer bug and last year he completely lost his command which is normally quite good. If they can fix that command he is back to a mid 4 ERA guy.

 

Gallardo is just done though. Nothing in his peripherals suggest he can be more than a replacement level pitcher at the major league level. Using him to start a few times due to injuries is probably fine but penciling him in for more than a handful of stats means the team did not do its job building rotational depth.

 

 

viewtopic.php?f=63&t=36398&p=1093445&hilit=Miley#p1093445

 

You're definitely correct that he's had to work through trouble fairly regularly. In a full healthy season, some of that luck would average out more, so there's no way he'd be sporting a 2.18 ERA. That said a .234 avg against and 1.25 WHIP isn't atrocious, and I've liked the trend in regards to his BB rate. Early on, coming back from 2 different DL stints his walk rate was pretty bad, but it's gotten better and better as he's gotten more innings under his belt. As a sort of pitch to contact pitcher, he definitely needs to avoid putting out tons of walks to stay effective.

[brewmann04]

Miley and Chacin have been two great moves for the crew who no one figured to have an impact

[markedman5]

We would be in a world of trouble without Miley with the way the season played out with Davies, Jimmy, Suter etc

 

Great job by Stearns and staff to identify a guy who could help even when nobody on this board thought he could.

 

Not all signings are going to work out like this obviously( hello Boone Logan).

[Jaylyn]

Could he be in contention for NL Comeback Player of the Year?

[Ennder]

We would be in a world of trouble without Miley with the way the season played out with Davies, Jimmy, Suter etc

 

 

 

Yeah it really is amazing. I think everyone knew that Anderson would regress but most hoped it wouldn't regress as much as he has. We all hoped that Jimmy would give us half a season but he gave us nothing. We hoped that Davies would find it before June and give a decent season but he just got hurt. We all assumed some young guy would give us half a season of not terrible stats and that happened with Peralta. The last spots were reclamation guys that we hoped 1 or 2 would work out and for the most part they have all worked out and even carried the load.

[danzig6767]

That cutter of his is a very effective pitch vs righthanded hitters. He consistently gets that pitch on their hands, leading to softly hit ground balls.