Josh Hader appreciation thread

[And That]

You're really talking about WPA (Win Probability Added) in your second paragraph. Hader is already at 1.44 WPA this season per fangraphs, which puts him 4th in baseball.

This is exactly what I was going to say. WPA is an event-level stat that is super useful to look at for relievers, and as the Brewers move towards using relievers more often, might be the best way to differentiate them.

 

Hader is immediately behind Edwin Diaz in WPA, who has had an unbelievable season as well. Though the Mariners use Diaz in more of a traditional closer's role.

 

Here are the Brewers' pitchers sorted by WPA: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0

[And That]

While his player leverage index has him as the 51st highest leverage reliever across baseball..... so, in reality, Counsell could still use him even more effectively.

The LI scores can be misleading a little because a setup/closer type who has gotten lit up will still have a high LI - JJ Hoover leads the Brewers for instance.

 

I like WPA/LI because it provides some resulting context to the situational leverage. Hader is 12th in baseball in WPA/LI, though he is first among relievers.

 

MLB relief leaders in WPA/LI: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=13,d

 

Brewers relievers ranked by WPA/LI: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=3&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=23&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=12,d

[Lathund]

That's the thing. I don't believe people are properly valuing Hader as a reliever vs. as a starter. I also don't believe WAR is going to properly value him. People see 175 innings from him as a starter and 90-100 as a reliever and just assume, "175 is more than 90-100, so he's more valuable as a starter." It's not that simple. At least I don't believe it is.

 

Very few relievers ever hit the 90 inning mark, and no one has hit 100 since Scott Proctor in 2006. Over the last decade there's generally only a handful of guys that get over 80. If they plan on using him for 90-100 innings regularly as a reliever, I'd plan on him having a short career.

 

That brings up the question of whether it's the number of innings pitched, or the frequency of the appearances that poses the injury risk. What effect does it have to repeatedly warm up to then not get put into games for instance? The 1-inning relievers cap out at 70-80 or so, but that also means working on slightly more than 1 days rest on average, and likely going 2-3 days in a row on several occasions. Should pitching 3 innings every 4 days (~120 IP) really carry more of an injury risk than your average starter's workload? Or perhaps more applicable to Hader, 2 innings every 3 days (108 IP) or something similar?

 

Naturally you can't really keep a strict schedule as well as you can for a starter as reliever usage is situational and based on need, but if you make it a priority (And that means passing up some decent opportunities) I don't see why you couldn't get a fairly balanced workload. Make sure he rarely, if ever, warms up when not entering the games and avoid pitching on consecutive days, and I think 100 IP isn't unreasonable. I obviously don't have access to the kind of data you'd need to say anything for sure, but the way the Brewers have been using him so far would suggest they feel fairly comfortable with it.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

I think there are good thoughts on both sides. There is no question Hader would be more valuable as a TOR arm, but of course there is no guarantee he becomes that. How much is the team willing to risk to find out?

 

For me, having him doing what he is doing now is best for right now, for THIS year. Maybe he gets a shot as a starter in 2019. Personally, last night was so awesome that it makes me want to just enjoy this. There is no point thinking about what could be because it still might. What we have now is a guy everyone in baseball is talking about. It is so cool and amazing to watch. I am going to enjoy every pitch Hader throws this year.

[monty57]

That's the thing. I don't believe people are properly valuing Hader as a reliever vs. as a starter. I also don't believe WAR is going to properly value him. People see 175 innings from him as a starter and 90-100 as a reliever and just assume, "175 is more than 90-100, so he's more valuable as a starter." It's not that simple. At least I don't believe it is.

 

Very few relievers ever hit the 90 inning mark, and no one has hit 100 since Scott Proctor in 2006. Over the last decade there's generally only a handful of guys that get over 80. If they plan on using him for 90-100 innings regularly as a reliever, I'd plan on him having a short career.

 

That brings up the question of whether it's the number of innings pitched, or the frequency of the appearances that poses the injury risk. What effect does it have to repeatedly warm up to then not get put into games for instance? The 1-inning relievers cap out at 70-80 or so, but that also means working on slightly more than 1 days rest on average, and likely going 2-3 days in a row on several occasions. Should pitching 3 innings every 4 days (~120 IP) really carry more of an injury risk than your average starter's workload? Or perhaps more applicable to Hader, 2 innings every 3 days (108 IP) or something similar?

 

Naturally you can't really keep a strict schedule as well as you can for a starter as reliever usage is situational and based on need, but if you make it a priority (And that means passing up some decent opportunities) I don't see why you couldn't get a fairly balanced workload. Make sure he rarely, if ever, warms up when not entering the games and avoid pitching on consecutive days, and I think 100 IP isn't unreasonable. I obviously don't have access to the kind of data you'd need to say anything for sure, but the way the Brewers have been using him so far would suggest they feel fairly comfortable with it.

 

Hader has pitched in 11/30 games (37%), going 18 innings (1.64 Inning/appearance). 37% of 162 is 60 games. 60*1.64 is 98.4 innings.

 

He gets twice the appearances of a good starter with half the innings. Is this genius or crazy? Will this win more or less games than if he were a good starter? Will it cause his arm to fall off?

 

He may not get up and down as much as most relievers, but he will have warm-ups between innings that most relievers never see, and pitch in "stressful innings" that people say can be harder on a pitcher than "easy innings."

 

Maybe this revolutionizes baseball, or maybe it de-values your best pitcher and potentially causes arm problems.

 

I guess my question is: If you don't know what effect this will have on a young player's arm, do you want Hader to be the guinea pig?

[young guns]

Here's how I see harder right now. He's extremely valuable in his current role. I was one of the ones in the off season that wanted him to have a crack at the rotation, but now I'm not sure. I think he has the potential to be an ace, but if he's "only" good enough to be a 3, 4 or 5, I think he would be more valuable in his current role. My fear is if he tries and fails could he regain his bullpen form or if he's not an ace would you move him back to the "bullpen ace" role which may be more valuable. Basically, it's not broke should we try and fix it?

 

Now on a fun speculative note, if he continues to pitch like this the whole year, would he be considered for the mvp? My rough calculations his stats would be 60 games, about 98 innings, 213k's and he currently has an era of 1. The era will probably be hard to maintain that era(and everything else), but let's say that's close, is it enough to win? Get votes? It probably matters if the brewers make the playoffs, but is there a difference if they win the division vs wild card team?

[adambr2]

Here's how I see harder right now. He's extremely valuable in his current role. I was one of the ones in the off season that wanted him to have a crack at the rotation, but now I'm not sure. I think he has the potential to be an ace, but if he's "only" good enough to be a 3, 4 or 5, I think he would be more valuable in his current role. My fear is if he tries and fails could he regain his bullpen form or if he's not an ace would you move him back to the "bullpen ace" role which may be more valuable. Basically, it's not broke should we try and fix it?

 

Now on a fun speculative note, if he continues to pitch like this the whole year, would he be considered for the mvp? My rough calculations his stats would be 60 games, about 98 innings, 213k's and he currently has an era of 1. The era will probably be hard to maintain that era(and everything else), but let's say that's close, is it enough to win? Get votes? It probably matters if the brewers make the playoffs, but is there a difference if they win the division vs wild card team?

 

If Hader achieved those projections, he would absolutely shatter the NL record of 154 K's in a season by a reliever, and break the MLB record of 181 by over 30. I'm guessing he would break numerous other records like K/9. So I guess I'm saying, as awesome as it is, I doubt it's sustainable on this level.

 

But I would say yes, if he came close he should absolutely be considered for Cy Young and MVP, given that those numbers would blow away Dennis Eckersely's 1992 MVP and Cy Young season. Like any other year it would also depend on team performance and what the other candidates look like.

[DuWayne Steurer]

Being able to pick the innings and spots you use him is (as others have already said) an value that has context that goes beyond randomly being selected to pitch every five days. Unless Hader is a Clayton Kershaw, Chris Sale, or Randy Johnson, I just feel like using him *when he's needed* is more valuable than randomly having him toss 5 innings every 5 days, regardless of the actual game situation that's presented. If the Brewers score 6-7-8 runs in the first few innings in a game he starts, is his value being properly utilized? I'd argue that it's not.

 

I love WAR. But it has it's limits. WAR assigns a value to events. It doesn't care if you hit a homerun in the 7th inning of a tie game, or the 5th inning of a blowout loss. That homerun has the same WAR value.

 

Part of Hader's value is that he's able to be used primarily when he's needed to keep a game tied or close. WAR doesn't quantify that in any kind of way.

[MrTPlush]

I doubt Hader cares too terribly much. The way he is pitching could equate to a $100mil+ contract by the time he hits free agency. I will live with my role at that point. He could totally flame out as a starter and the heavy innings/pitches could make him a totally different reliever if reverted back.

[homer]

By the time Hader reaches free agency the whole system might look different.

[Eye Black]

I’m wondering if anyone has past examples of an elite reliever that consistently threw multiple innings on a regular basis to protect close leads? I am having trouble coming up with recent examples for a similar usage pattern to mirror how Hader is currently being utilized to often record 6 or more outs in high leverage late innings with thin margins.

[reillymcshane]

Josh Hader is on a pace to throw 97 innings and strike out 211 batters.

[TJseven7]

So calling him an AS reliever before the season was not wrong? I coulda swore I was told it's wrong.

[reillymcshane]

So calling him an AS reliever before the season was not wrong? I coulda swore I was told it's wrong.

If you look at the 2018 prediction thread, lots and lots of people thought Hader would be an all star and/or be the Brewer pitcher of the year.

 

Could people have said they thought Hader would not be good? Or maybe he wouldn't be considered an all star because he was a reliever? Sure. Hundreds of people post on this site - and there are lots of opinions. But I believe the majority of people felt that Hader was going to be a good player.

[Eye Black]

Link to Fangraphs newest Hader article: That Josh Hader Game

[RobDeer 45]

The guy is pitching so well right now, it's unreal. I love that he's getting national attention as well. Really cool.

 

My thought is keep him where he is. I think he's so valuable in his current role.

 

Question, how is his 3rd pitch, which I believe is the changeup, rated? My worry with him being a starter is does he have enough deception to go through the lineup multiple times. I'd hate to see him be a starter and be average, or struggle. No guarantee that if he then tried to switch back to a reliever, that he would be able to regain his form. I think it's too risky to mess with it right now.

 

Another question, in a playoff series, what's more valuable, a starter, or a reliever in a role like he's in currently?

[wallus]

If we were not looking to contend this year, I would probably try Hader as a starter. He has been so successful and dominant that I would leave him where he is. Moving him to be a starter is looking taking a great defensive coordinator and making him a head coach. Just because you are good at one thing, doesn't mean you will be good at another.

[monty57]

Another question, in a playoff series, what's more valuable, a starter, or a reliever in a role like he's in currently?

 

Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling basically won the playoffs and World Series by themselves for Arizona. That's about the most extreme example I can think of that illustrates how dominant starters can be in a string of series with plenty of days to rest.

 

The Cubs won with three Cy Young contenders and a star closer. The converse of that is Washington. They have had dominant pitching and can't seem to win a series no matter what they do.

 

LaRussa liked to pull his starters and go to the bullpen early, and of course the Royals are the current example being used for all of baseball that has driven up the price and perceived value of relievers.

 

Personally, I think as an individual, a good starting pitcher is much more valuable than a good reliever. For the aggregate pitching staff of a team, it probably depends on your roster. If you have a bunch of starters who can't go deep into the game, you need several good multiple-inning guys. If you have some great starters who regularly go deep into games, you don't need as many good relievers.

 

I would think that anyone would take a rotation made up of guys like Kershaw and Scherzer paired with a so-so bullpen over a so-so starting staff paired with a bullpen made up of guys like Miller and Hader.

[FVBrewerFan]

Hader just struck out 8 of the 9 batters he faced with FB/Slider. Why in the world would he want to throw a change? I'm sure he could throw it if he needed to throw it, mostly because it wouldn't even have to be anything close to a plus pitch for him. Just a get me over change or curve is all he needs, and if/when that's necessary I really believe he could add that.

[RobDeer 45]

Hader just struck out 8 of the 9 batters he faced with FB/Slider. Why in the world would he want to throw a change? I'm sure he could throw it if he needed to throw it, mostly because it wouldn't even have to be anything close to a plus pitch for him. Just a get me over change or curve is all he needs, and if/when that's necessary I really believe he could add that.

 

I was stating that in terms of if he was a starter. If you only have two pitches, I feel like you will have less luck the second and third time through the lineup. That's why a lot of pitchers end up in the pen, because they only have one or two good pitches.

[FVBrewerFan]

Hader just struck out 8 of the 9 batters he faced with FB/Slider. Why in the world would he want to throw a change? I'm sure he could throw it if he needed to throw it, mostly because it wouldn't even have to be anything close to a plus pitch for him. Just a get me over change or curve is all he needs, and if/when that's necessary I really believe he could add that.

 

I was stating that in terms of if he was a starter. If you only have two pitches, I feel like you will have less luck the second and third time through the lineup. That's why a lot of pitchers end up in the pen, because they only have one or two good pitches.

 

Right, but my point is this. It's not that he CAN'T throw a change-up, it's that he doesn't need to throw it in his current role. If he ever does get moved to the rotation, he can and will throw it more often if he needs that pitch.

[TURBO]

Doesn't Jeffress deserve a thread of his own too?

 

A Jeremy Jeffress appreciation thread perhaps?

[homer]

Doesn't Jeffress deserve a thread of his own too?

 

A Jeremy Jeffress appreciation thread perhaps?

 

I think his agent just posted a Jeffress to the All Star game thread.

[markedman5]

http://www.pitcherlist.com/going-deep-appreciating-josh-hader/

[Tbadder]

I especially love it when he’s high in the zone. It’s just a giant “up yours” to this new fangled launch angle. Hitters are just begging to be struck out today. Love it.