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I've shook my head at the Mejia talk for months but am now thinking the Indians may part with him. Just saw too many reports this off-season questioning his ability to stay behind the plate. I think they had him playing 3B in the Fall League, and so far this season he's split time between C and LF. I don't believe any junk that they are seeking defensive versatility with him. If you are developing a catcher then that guy gets max innings behind the plate because experience is huge with that position.

 

Still like Mejia's bat at any position but that offense is not nearly as attractive as a left fielder as it would be with a catcher.

 

Note that I'm not saying the Indians would be looking to sell him cheap. They still would demand a premium return for him. I just think they might now be open to listening to top offers for him. They seem like an organization that places a big emphasis on defense when it comes to catchers. I remember their GM saying Lucroy would not be guaranteed a starting job in 2017 because they loved Gomes defense. And at the time Gomes looked like an expanding black hole offensively, OPS'ing .659 in 2015 and OPS'ing .527 in 2016. Fortunately for them, his bat bounced back the last couple of seasons. But it still shows how much emphasis they place on defense at that position, because Lucroy was still a plus defensively and combined with his offense was one of the best two-way catchers. So if they think Mejia is going to be below average behind the plate, will they keep him there? And if not, how does his bat play at other positions? If another team that still sees him as a catcher is willing to give up a package of players worth 70 million in surplus value, well there is a really good chance that Cleveland may not see him as having that type of value in their organization if they don't think he will be a catcher in their long-term plans.

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Would still love to get Francisco Mejia .. He is struggling to hit in AAA but he's only 22. I believe in his talent

 

Nottingham is 23 and destroying AAA. Mejia does profile with a higher average than Nottingham, but Nottingham profiles with better power. I know we almost traded for him once, but I guess I don't see the infatuation with this guy ... especially with the ransom the Indians would likely put on him.

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Would still love to get Francisco Mejia .. He is struggling to hit in AAA but he's only 22. I believe in his talent

 

Nottingham is 23 and destroying AAA. Mejia does profile with a higher average than Nottingham, but Nottingham profiles with better power. I know we almost traded for him once, but I guess I don't see the infatuation with this guy ... especially with the ransom the Indians would likely put on him.

 

Basically every player that puts on a Colorado Springs uniform "destroys AAA."

 

Even with those gaudy, BABIP-inflated stats, Nottingham is striking out 25% of the time, which is pretty much the norm over his minor league career.

 

Mejia is striking out a bit more early this year, but generally has been at 15%. That's a huge difference.

 

Mejia probably profiles to a .280-.300 guy with 20-25 HR and a .360 OBP. Potentially a prime Jonathan Lucroy-type bat.

 

Nottingham, while he still has time to turn it around, profiles to a .230 guy with 15 HR and a .300 OBP. Maybe a poor man's Mike Zunino or a Chris Iannetta if he actually even makes it to the majors for a long-term stay.

 

They aren't in the same galaxy currently offensively.

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Would still love to get Francisco Mejia .. He is struggling to hit in AAA but he's only 22. I believe in his talent

 

Nottingham is 23 and destroying AAA. Mejia does profile with a higher average than Nottingham, but Nottingham profiles with better power. I know we almost traded for him once, but I guess I don't see the infatuation with this guy ... especially with the ransom the Indians would likely put on him.

 

Basically every player that puts on a Colorado Springs uniform "destroys AAA."

 

Even with those gaudy, BABIP-inflated stats, Nottingham is striking out 25% of the time, which is pretty much the norm over his minor league career.

 

Mejia is striking out a bit more early this year, but generally has been at 15%. That's a huge difference.

 

Mejia probably profiles to a .280-.300 guy with 20-25 HR and a .360 OBP. Potentially a prime Jonathan Lucroy-type bat.

 

Nottingham, while he still has time to turn it around, profiles to a .230 guy with 15 HR and a .300 OBP. Maybe a poor man's Mike Zunino or a Chris Iannetta if he actually even makes it.

 

They aren't in the same galaxy currently.

 

I think you are looking at absolute best case for Mejia and worst case for Nottingham, but to each his own. AAA numbers are AAA numbers, and when comparing the two age wise, Nottingham is destroying Mejia right now. It's not Nottingham's fault that he's playing his home games in a hitter's paradise. But we've seen offensive prospects fail there, too, so writing off his numbers completely as a product of where he plays isn't fair at all.

 

But where in the world are you getting those prospective power numbers from for Mejia? The guy has never profiled as a power hitter, and his very slight frame (for a catcher at least) lends credibility to that. I think if can hit .290-.300 with 10 HRs and a .350 OBP in a full season, that's his ceiling. And that small frame is an injury concern to me.

 

Would I trade Nottingham for Mejia? Yeah, probably, just because hit hit tool is significantly better, and his contact skills would be a nice contrast to the "All or nothing" approach that many of this team's current hitters have. I'm just saying that the two of them are not a night and day difference in prospect value, in my opinion.

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Nottingham is 23 and destroying AAA. Mejia does profile with a higher average than Nottingham, but Nottingham profiles with better power. I know we almost traded for him once, but I guess I don't see the infatuation with this guy ... especially with the ransom the Indians would likely put on him.

 

Basically every player that puts on a Colorado Springs uniform "destroys AAA."

 

Even with those gaudy, BABIP-inflated stats, Nottingham is striking out 25% of the time, which is pretty much the norm over his minor league career.

 

Mejia is striking out a bit more early this year, but generally has been at 15%. That's a huge difference.

 

Mejia probably profiles to a .280-.300 guy with 20-25 HR and a .360 OBP. Potentially a prime Jonathan Lucroy-type bat.

 

Nottingham, while he still has time to turn it around, profiles to a .230 guy with 15 HR and a .300 OBP. Maybe a poor man's Mike Zunino or a Chris Iannetta if he actually even makes it.

 

They aren't in the same galaxy currently.

 

I think you are looking at absolute best case for Mejia and worst case for Nottingham, but to each his own. AAA numbers are AAA numbers, and when comparing the two age wise, Nottingham is destroying Mejia right now. It's not Nottingham's fault that he's playing his home games in a hitter's paradise. But we've seen offensive prospects fail there, too, so writing off his numbers completely as a product of where he plays isn't fair at all.

 

But where in the world are you getting those prospective power numbers from for Mejia? The guy has never profiled as a power hitter, and his very slight frame (for a catcher at least) lends credibility to that. I think if can hit .290-.300 with 10 HRs and a .350 OBP in a full season, that's his ceiling. And that small frame is an injury concern to me.

 

Would I trade Nottingham for Mejia? Yeah, probably, just because hit hit tool is significantly better, and his contact skills would be a nice contrast to the "All or nothing" approach that many of this team's current hitters have. I'm just saying that the two of them are not a night and day difference in prospect value, in my opinion.

 

Due to Nottingham's stint in the majors, he has essentially not played any road games in the minors this year (and the road games are good in the PCL as well) so that is contributing.

 

You're literally elevating Nottingham based on 50 plate appearances where he has a .500 BABIP.

 

I could spend several hours picking out AAAA caliber players that hit .300+ with Colorado Springs. I'd put some stock into Nottingham's gaudy stats if he didn't have the exact same K% that he's always had.

 

This is like comparing Corey Ray to Lewis Brinson and saying they look about the same for MLB projection, which I'm not even sure is fair because I think Mejia's majors production is more of a certainty that Brinson's, IMO.

 

Where am I getting the HR power from Mejia? He hit 14 HR in 92 games at age 21 last year.

 

Nottingham at age 21 (AA): 112 games, 456 PA, 11 HR, .234/.295/.347

Mejia at age 21 (AA): 92 games, 383 PA, 14 HR, .297/.346/.490

 

Nottingham had to repeat AA (and still stunk) at age 22. Mejia is now at AAA at age 22.

 

So Mejia looks like a better HR hitter than Nottingham.

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Due to Nottingham's stint in the majors, he has essentially not played any road games in the minors this year (and the road games are good in the PCL as well) so that is contributing.

 

You're literally elevating Nottingham based on 50 plate appearances where he has a .500 BABIP.

 

I could spend several hours picking out AAAA caliber players that hit .300+ with Colorado Springs. I'd put some stock into Nottingham's gaudy stats if he didn't have the exact same K% that he's always had.

 

This is like comparing Corey Ray to Lewis Brinson and saying they look about the same for MLB projection, which I'm not even sure is fair because I think Mejia's majors production is more of a certainty that Brinson's, IMO.

 

Where am I getting the HR power from Mejia? He hit 14 HR in 92 games at age 21 last year.

 

Nottingham at age 21 (AA): 112 games, 11 HR, .234/.295/.347

Mejia at age 21 (AA): 92 games, 14 HR, .297/.346/.490

 

Nottingham had to repeat AA (and still stunk) at age 22. Mejia is now at AAA at age 22.

 

So Mejia looks like a better HR hitter than Nottingham.

 

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But it's not that I dislike Mejia. He's a great prospect that any team would be lucky to have. I'm sure he'll turn it around, but he's been bad so far this year in AAA. I just think penalizing Nottingham for doing exactly what he's supposed to be doing isn't fair to him as a prospect. And, to me at least, his existence in the Brewers system would make giving up a ton of value for a guy like Mejia a poor investment. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't think Mejia is a "can't miss" guy.

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Basically every player that puts on a Colorado Springs uniform "destroys AAA."

That's kind of a facile argument though. Many players do hit well in Colorado Springs, that's true, but at the same time, you can't dismiss performance out of hand without considering other factors.

 

Nottingham's wRC+, which normalizes production for league and park factors, is 199 so far. In other words, he's been excellent and about twice as good as the average player. I don't think anyone expects Nottingham to maintain this, especially given his BABIP as you noted. But even depsite just throwing on a Sky Sox jersey, he's been lights out.

 

Mejia's wRC+ so far this year is 40, which is awful.

 

I'm not trying to argue Nottingham is a superior prospect to Mejia or anything - I don't think he is. However, context, and not just superficial context, is key.

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Nottingham had to repeat AA (and still stunk) at age 22.

No, he didn't stink. You just brought up the BABIP argument, so I'll throw it back at you here. Nottingham had absolutely terrible luck last year, with a .255 BABIP to prove it. That's about 70 points off his career average. And despite that, he was still above average for the league, with a 103 wRC+. Not to mention the vast improvements on defense.

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Basically every player that puts on a Colorado Springs uniform "destroys AAA."

That's kind of a facile argument though. Many players do hit well in Colorado Springs, that's true, but at the same time, you can't dismiss performance out of hand without considering other factors.

 

Nottingham's wRC+, which normalizes production for league and park factors, is 199 so far. In other words, he's been excellent and about twice as good as the average player. I don't think anyone expects Nottingham to maintain this, especially given his BABIP as you noted. But even depsite just throwing on a Sky Sox jersey, he's been lights out.

 

Mejia's wRC+ so far this year is 40, which is awful.

 

I'm not trying to argue Nottingham is a superior prospect to Mejia or anything - I don't think he is. However, context, and not just superficial context, is key.

 

It's literally 50 plate appearances in the best hitting environment possibly in any league of baseball where he has a .500 BABIP. He has essentially not played on the road this year.

 

I'm sure he could hit .280/.340/.500 in Colorado Springs. If his K% changes, then we can start to talk about a change/improvement.

 

The fact that he's hitting pretty well tells me he could maybe put on an MLB uniform for an extended period of time. Beyond that, it doesn't say much.

 

Brett Phillips crushes CS. Ivan De Jesus does. Brinson hit .331 last year. Garrett Cooper hit .360 last year.

 

Eric Sogard put up a .937 OPS hitting .330.

 

I am having a hard time finding someone that got an extended stay there that didn't hit around .300 with all-star caliber numbers other than pitchers. Nieuwenhuis is basically the only sub-.800 OPS regular in 2017 and he's getting back on track in 2018.

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Nottingham had to repeat AA (and still stunk) at age 22.

No, he didn't stink. You just brought up the BABIP argument, so I'll throw it back at you here. Nottingham had absolutely terrible luck last year, with a .255 BABIP to prove it. That's about 70 points off his career average. And despite that, he was still above average for the league, with a 103 wRC+. Not to mention the vast improvements on defense.

 

He still hit .209 (with a good OBP given his average). Bump that BABIP up to normal and what, you've got a .250/.340 type of season? Like I said, a season like that does not disqualify him from getting to the majors, that's pretty standard for a power-hitting catcher. He's still young enough that he could really come of age in the next few years.

 

I just need more than 50 plate appearances on the moon to tell me that...and it's very improbable that he catches Mejia in terms of hitting the ball.

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Basically every player that puts on a Colorado Springs uniform "destroys AAA."

That's kind of a facile argument though. Many players do hit well in Colorado Springs, that's true, but at the same time, you can't dismiss performance out of hand without considering other factors.

 

Nottingham's wRC+, which normalizes production for league and park factors, is 199 so far. In other words, he's been excellent and about twice as good as the average player. I don't think anyone expects Nottingham to maintain this, especially given his BABIP as you noted. But even depsite just throwing on a Sky Sox jersey, he's been lights out.

 

Mejia's wRC+ so far this year is 40, which is awful.

 

I'm not trying to argue Nottingham is a superior prospect to Mejia or anything - I don't think he is. However, context, and not just superficial context, is key.

 

It's literally 50 plate appearances in the best hitting environment possibly in any league of baseball where he has a .500 BABIP. He has essentially not played on the road this year.

 

I'm sure he could hit .280/.340/.500 in Colorado Springs. If his K% changes, then we can start to talk about a change/improvement.

 

The fact that he's hitting pretty well tells me he could maybe put on an MLB uniform for an extended period of time. Beyond that, it doesn't say much.

 

Brett Phillips crushes CS. Ivan De Jesus does. Brinson hit .331 last year. Garrett Cooper hit .360 last year.

 

Eric Sogard put up a .937 OPS hitting .330.

 

I am literally having a hard time finding someone that got an extended stay there that didn't hit around .300 with all-star caliber numbers other than pitchers. Nieuwenhuis is basically the only sub-.800 OPS regular in 2017 and he's getting back on track in 2018.

 

Nieuwenhuis is in Tacoma now.

 

I agree that Colorado Springs is a hitter's paradise. But you seem to be writing off Nottingham as a AAAA player, while saying his Colorado Springs numbers are empty. Personally, I think that isn't fair to a 23-year-old catcher.

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since we have an overztock at firzt base, offer Thames for Mejia. Cleveland has to pull the trigger on that cuz they could use a monster power hitting Lefty like thames over alonzo. And we dont utilize Thames as he barely starts (not sure why).

To be sure, i love thames but he is on our bench every 2nd game unexplicably so we should move him and get a top C prospect since i think we are 1 year away from serious world series contention, however, this is clevelands last year inside a world series window before they lose allen, miller and carrasco.

 

Plus, indians have a stud AA catcher as well moving up the charts in Haase sp?.

basically we have an overabundance at first base with braun, thames, aguliar. Plus, although i think we are playoff bound, we are a couple players away from world series contention. Mejia for Braun?

cleveland can use an outfielder/First guy. We can use another solid young guy like mejia who would be phenomenal C.

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Due to Nottingham's stint in the majors, he has essentially not played any road games in the minors this year (and the road games are good in the PCL as well) so that is contributing.

 

You're literally elevating Nottingham based on 50 plate appearances where he has a .500 BABIP.

 

I could spend several hours picking out AAAA caliber players that hit .300+ with Colorado Springs. I'd put some stock into Nottingham's gaudy stats if he didn't have the exact same K% that he's always had.

 

This is like comparing Corey Ray to Lewis Brinson and saying they look about the same for MLB projection, which I'm not even sure is fair because I think Mejia's majors production is more of a certainty that Brinson's, IMO.

 

Where am I getting the HR power from Mejia? He hit 14 HR in 92 games at age 21 last year.

 

Nottingham at age 21 (AA): 112 games, 11 HR, .234/.295/.347

Mejia at age 21 (AA): 92 games, 14 HR, .297/.346/.490

 

Nottingham had to repeat AA (and still stunk) at age 22. Mejia is now at AAA at age 22.

 

So Mejia looks like a better HR hitter than Nottingham.

 

Guess we'll have to agree to disagree. But it's not that I dislike Mejia. He's a great prospect that any team would be lucky to have. I'm sure he'll turn it around, but he's been bad so far this year in AAA. I just think penalizing Nottingham for doing exactly what he's supposed to be doing isn't fair to him as a prospect. And, to me at least, his existence in the Brewers system would make giving up a ton of value for a guy like Mejia a poor investment. Maybe I'm wrong, but I just don't think Mejia is a "can't miss" guy.

 

I'm not penalizing Nottingham for it. I'm just choosing to put very little stock in a small sample in an ideal environment.

 

Same goes for Mejia. First time regularly in AAA. He can turn it around. Do we think Domingo Santana is a 0 HR, sub .600 OPS hitter? Maybe Santana isn't the guy we saw last year, but I think that he's going to get back up towards that .800 level at least, right? Give it time.

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That's kind of a facile argument though. Many players do hit well in Colorado Springs, that's true, but at the same time, you can't dismiss performance out of hand without considering other factors.

 

Nottingham's wRC+, which normalizes production for league and park factors, is 199 so far. In other words, he's been excellent and about twice as good as the average player. I don't think anyone expects Nottingham to maintain this, especially given his BABIP as you noted. But even depsite just throwing on a Sky Sox jersey, he's been lights out.

 

Mejia's wRC+ so far this year is 40, which is awful.

 

I'm not trying to argue Nottingham is a superior prospect to Mejia or anything - I don't think he is. However, context, and not just superficial context, is key.

 

It's literally 50 plate appearances in the best hitting environment possibly in any league of baseball where he has a .500 BABIP. He has essentially not played on the road this year.

 

I'm sure he could hit .280/.340/.500 in Colorado Springs. If his K% changes, then we can start to talk about a change/improvement.

 

The fact that he's hitting pretty well tells me he could maybe put on an MLB uniform for an extended period of time. Beyond that, it doesn't say much.

 

Brett Phillips crushes CS. Ivan De Jesus does. Brinson hit .331 last year. Garrett Cooper hit .360 last year.

 

Eric Sogard put up a .937 OPS hitting .330.

 

I am literally having a hard time finding someone that got an extended stay there that didn't hit around .300 with all-star caliber numbers other than pitchers. Nieuwenhuis is basically the only sub-.800 OPS regular in 2017 and he's getting back on track in 2018.

 

Nieuwenhuis is in Tacoma now.

 

I agree that Colorado Springs is a hitter's paradise. But you seem to be writing off Nottingham as a AAAA player, while saying his Colorado Springs numbers are empty. Personally, I think that isn't fair to a 23-year-old catcher.

 

We're talking about 50 freaking plate appearances. I'm just saying that I'm not going to call it turning the corner.

 

Take a look at Brett Phillips' numbers there and also Cooper and Brinson. Those guys have larger samples at Colorado Springs and they are not maintaining those .330 batting averages in the pros. They aren't facing journeyman pitchers in cavernous ballparks where every time you make contact it falls for a hit anymore.

 

Now, you can use logic to project those guys in the majors. Phillips may always be a AAAA bat but has potential to be a good power/low average mainstay in the majors if he improves. Brinson is going to struggle to hit early but has a chance to be a star. Cooper is probably a AAAA righty platoon hitter.

 

All of those guys crushed CS for a long time. The fact that they all did what they were supposed to there basically just tells you that they are definitely good enough to be good AAA hitters. That's about it.

 

When you rate someone, you have to take weight off of their gaudy stats at Colorado Springs. Because if you put that into the formula just like any other stop that someone would make in the minors, guys like Ivan De Jesus would be studs.

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Bump that BABIP up to normal and what, you've got a .250/.340 type of season?

If he has a normal BABIP and normal double/triple distribution from those extra hits, Nottingham hits .264/.356/.443 last year. That would have been about a 130 wRC+.

 

Mejia had a 127 wRC+.

 

Nottingham threw out 40% of runners last year. Mejia threw out 30%.

 

This year, Nottingham has thrown out... 40%. Mejia hasn't thrown out anyone in 7 attempts.

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since we have an overztock at firzt base, offer Thames for Mejia. Cleveland has to pull the trigger on that cuz they could use a monster power hitting Lefty like thames over alonzo. And we dont utilize Thames as he barely starts (not sure why).

To be sure, i love thames but he is on our bench every 2nd game unexplicably so we should move him and get a top C prospect since i think we are 1 year away from serious world series contention, however, this is clevelands last year inside a world series window before they lose allen, miller and carrasco.

 

Plus, indians have a stud AA catcher as well moving up the charts in Haase sp?.

basically we have an overabundance at first base with braun, thames, aguliar. Plus, although i think we are playoff bound, we are a couple players away from world series contention. Mejia for Braun?

cleveland can use an outfielder/First guy. We can use another solid young guy like mejia who would be phenomenal C.

 

Thames was starting every game against right-handed pitching until he was hurt. I'm not sure where you are getting this idea that he barely starts from. You brought it up in a different thread, and it was quickly pointed out that it was incorrect.

 

Plus, Thames is hurt right now, and out for the next 6 weeks.

 

Braun would have to approve a deal to the Indians, and I highly doubt that he would.

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Because if you put that into the formula just like any other stop that someone would make in the minors, guys like Ivan De Jesus would be studs.

Ivan De Jesus had a 136 wRC+ last year in AAA for Colorado Springs. His previous years in AAA, he had a wRC+ of:

 

2015: 125

2014: 109

2013: 134

2012: 145

 

Not out of line at all.

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Because if you put that into the formula just like any other stop that someone would make in the minors, guys like Ivan De Jesus would be studs.

Ivan De Jesus had a 136 wRC+ last year in AAA for Colorado Springs. His previous years in AAA, he had a wRC+ of:

 

2015: 125

2014: 109

2013: 134

2012: 145

 

Not out of line at all.

 

Guilty as charged to not really seeing that DeJesus was a that good hitter of a hitter at other stops in the minors.

 

That said, I've noted that I think Nottingham has the potential to have a Zunino or Iannetta type career. The original premise that we can use the first month of 2018 to project him closer to Mejia is a bit out of wack, is all I'm saying.

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The original premise that we can use the first month of 2018 to project him closer to Mejia is a bit out of wack, is all I'm saying.

I get that, and agree using 51 PAs as an argument makes that argument a bit lacking. However, at least what I'm saying is that maybe he wasn't as far away from Mejia as most people think and that his strong start to the season is a reason to be optimistic about that viewpoint going forward.

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The original premise that we can use the first month of 2018 to project him closer to Mejia is a bit out of wack, is all I'm saying.

I get that, and agree using 51 PAs as an argument makes that argument a bit lacking. However, at least what I'm saying is that maybe he wasn't as far away from Mejia as most people think and that his strong start to the season is a reason to be optimistic about that viewpoint going forward.

 

That's what I was getting at, albeit in a convoluted, roundabout way. Nottingham's 2017 numbers on the surface don't look great, but they show a hitter that did improve and ran into a lot of bad luck. There was definitely room for improvement, though. It appears that, at least so far, he has made necessary corrections, and is seeing positive results. That's exactly what you want in one of your top prospects. Nottingham's great start, and Mejia's horrible one, is a great lesson on the volatility of prospect projection. There were plenty of people here ready to either dump Nottingham as a throw-in in a trade, or risk losing him in the Rule 5 Draft. So far he is proving those skeptics wrong, albeit in a small sample. I for one hope it continues, and perhaps by the end of this season, Nottingham's name will be mentioned along with Mejia's when people talk about the best catching prospects in the game.

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Off topic now a bit, but because I was curious, here are the 2017 Colorado Springs Sky Sox players with at least 200 PAs ranked by wRC+:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/minorleaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=200&type=1&season=2017&team=24&players=0

 

7 above average, 6 below average. Yadi... ouch.

 

The 7 above average guys are all borderline MLB prospects. The bottom ones are all scrubs.

 

I also get that you're pimping wRC+. First, that is a good thing to use. The issue is that a lot of fans are seeing the video game numbers from these guys at Colorado Springs and never would look at wRC+. Not saying anyone on this thread, but it's a general comment that overrates players to the general fan.

 

Second, I don't think it's the best minor league judgment. A lot of guys can get by against journeyman pitching and put the ball in play at a much better clip. This is coming completely from a guess, but I don't think wRC+ projects any better really than avg/OBP necessarily. A lot of it is K/BB% combined with those things, I'd think.

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