Dodged a bullet? (Lynn, Archer, Cobb all struggling)

[pacopete4]

Saw this tweet:

 

Some SP numbers from the 2018 FA class:

 

Jake Arrieta: 3.54 ERA, 4.12 FIP

Lance Lynn: 5.49 ERA, 4.37 FIP

Yu Darvish: 4.95 ERA, 4.80 FIP

Alex Cobb: 6.75 ERA, 5.12 FIP

Tyler Chatwood: 4.54 ERA, 4.94 FIP

Mike Minor: 4.64 ERA, 4.17 FIP

Jhoulys Chacin: 3.71 ERA, 3.92 FIP

[cesser000]

Saw this tweet:

 

Some SP numbers from the 2018 FA class:

 

Jake Arrieta: 3.54 ERA, 4.12 FIP

Lance Lynn: 5.49 ERA, 4.37 FIP

Yu Darvish: 4.95 ERA, 4.80 FIP

Alex Cobb: 6.75 ERA, 5.12 FIP

Tyler Chatwood: 4.54 ERA, 4.94 FIP

Mike Minor: 4.64 ERA, 4.17 FIP

Jhoulys Chacin: 3.71 ERA, 3.92 FIP

Chacin pretty much matching Arrieta and besting the rest by far. And Chacin is doing it for about $22 million LESS per year than Jake.

 

Stearns and his team know what the hell they're doing.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Really wish we could've of grabbed Miles Mikolas as well, but got to be pleased with avoiding many of these guys at their price point.

[wildcat2237]

Saw this tweet:

 

 

 

Stearns and his team know what the hell they're doing.

 

Gotta agree.

 

We are getting better production out of Brent Suter than the Twins are Lance Lynn. And we are paying Suter about 7 million per year less.

 

It is very intriguing to see what Stearns does at this deadline.

[wildcat2237]

BTW, I think Danny Salazar should be added to this list.

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/07/danny-salazar-season-over-12-16-weeks-shoulder-surgery-indians.html

 

A lot of people thought we should trade Santana+ to the Tribe for Salazar. Dude is out for the year.....again...

[NYChez]

Saw this tweet:

 

Some SP numbers from the 2018 FA class:

 

Jake Arrieta: 3.54 ERA, 4.12 FIP

Lance Lynn: 5.49 ERA, 4.37 FIP

Yu Darvish: 4.95 ERA, 4.80 FIP

Alex Cobb: 6.75 ERA, 5.12 FIP

Tyler Chatwood: 4.54 ERA, 4.94 FIP

Mike Minor: 4.64 ERA, 4.17 FIP

Jhoulys Chacin: 3.71 ERA, 3.92 FIP

 

Cobb’s contract is $57 million through 2021!

[SoCalBrewfan]

Miles Mikolas should be on that list; he's been the best free agent starter by far. Props to the Brewers front office for playing their value game and rejecting the narrative of the 'big four' free agent starters.

 

Some of those guys would probably look better with a good defense behind them, though. Minor hasn't pitched badly but Texas has not done a good job turning balls in play into outs. For Lynn or Cobb, the difference between the Twins and Orioles defense (both terrible) and the Brewers defense (very good) might well be enough to change the perception of their value. I wouldn't be surprised to see Stearns pick up a rental starter for cheap from a team with poor defense and watch the numbers improve.

[MrTPlush]

To be fair we definitely offered contracts to many of these guys and probably a ton to Darvish/Arrieta. So in a way we are lucky we got outbid. Obviously we ended up not looking for rotation upgrades as hard as it was made out to be. Which turned out to be a pretty good thing. Even the money we were offering these guys would have been a disaster so far.

[pacopete4]

Any source on contracts being offered? Interested and offers are completely different.

[Brewer Fever]

To be fair we definitely offered contracts to many of these guys and probably a ton to Darvish/Arrieta. So in a way we are lucky we got outbid. Obviously we ended up not looking for rotation upgrades as hard as it was made out to be. Which turned out to be a pretty good thing. Even the money we were offering these guys would have been a disaster so far.

 

To be even more fair, the Brewers reportedly offered significantly less to any of the guys on that list that were offered than what they ultimately got. And furthermore, it's entirely possible that any one of those guys could have better success working with pitching coach Derek Johnson. There are countless ways he could have tweaked these guys to produce better results. Anything from changing grips, developing new pitches, teaching better sequencing, simplifying delivery, changing position on the rubber, etc. Those are all things current Brewers pitchers have credited Johnson with helping them to achieve better results.

 

So I wouldn't call setting a price and sticking to it being "lucky to be outbid". And there's no telling if these guys would have been a "disaster" here under entirely different settings and instruction.

 

Edited to add that I believe the Brewers defense currently ranks 2nd in defensive runs saved so just about every pitcher would have better numbers even if all other conditions were replicated. And any flyball pitcher on the list would have benefited from the major league's best outfield in defensive runs saved.

[MrTPlush]

Oh, alright. Sorry I said anything that didn’t keep going with the Stearns and Co. are geniuses train. Way to pull the “what if” game to discount what I said. I could have done that to if I wanted.

 

Going by that rationale why even talk about the topic. We will never know if Alex Cobb would have had a sub 3 ERA here.

 

All I was saying is even the contracts we were offering were likely terrible ideas because most of these guys have been complete garbage. Yes, we did indeed not value these guys very highly, rightfully so...but even us were probably willing to throw quite a few millions at some of these guys.

 

In my opinion a bit of an outlier year for pretty much the entire class of notable starters to flame out and struggle. Usually a few of that higher contract pitchers (that we typically chase) do fine...not so much this year.

[brooks_quichenick]

Another thing to think about with a lot of these struggling FA pitchers is that because it took so long for them to receive a fair offer that many of them weren't in spring training until the last week, if that. I'm sure that plays somewhat of a role in their 1st half struggles.

[Brewer Fever]

Oh, alright. Sorry I said anything that didn’t keep going with the Stearns and Co. are geniuses train. Way to pull the “what if” game to discount what I said. I could have done that to if I wanted.

 

Going by that rationale why even talk about the topic. We will never know if Alex Cobb would have had a sub 3 ERA here.

 

All I was saying is even the contracts we were offering were likely terrible ideas because most of these guys have been complete garbage. Yes, we did indeed not value these guys very highly, rightfully so...but even us were probably willing to throw quite a few millions at some of these guys.

 

In my opinion a bit of an outlier year for pretty much the entire class of notable starters to flame out and struggle. Usually a few of that higher contract pitchers (that we typically chase) do fine...not so much this year.

 

Well, I'm trying to be factual and paint a broader picture of the possible outcomes given the countless number of variables. That's the alternative to simply declaring the Brewers front office got lucky like you did.

[Brewer Fever]

Another thing to think about with a lot of these struggling FA pitchers is that because it took so long for them to receive a fair offer that many of them weren't in spring training until the last week, if that. I'm sure that plays somewhat of a role in their 1st half struggles.

 

That's a good point and yet another variable to consider.

[Brewer Fever]

Oh, alright. Sorry I said anything that didn’t keep going with the Stearns and Co. are geniuses train.

 

Also moderators, any chance we can clean up some of this? Trying to be open minded about how the results with these pitchers could have been different under different conditions and instruction does not equate to being on the "Stearns and Co. are geniuses train".

[MrTPlush]

Oh, alright. Sorry I said anything that didn’t keep going with the Stearns and Co. are geniuses train. Way to pull the “what if” game to discount what I said. I could have done that to if I wanted.

 

Going by that rationale why even talk about the topic. We will never know if Alex Cobb would have had a sub 3 ERA here.

 

All I was saying is even the contracts we were offering were likely terrible ideas because most of these guys have been complete garbage. Yes, we did indeed not value these guys very highly, rightfully so...but even us were probably willing to throw quite a few millions at some of these guys.

 

In my opinion a bit of an outlier year for pretty much the entire class of notable starters to flame out and struggle. Usually a few of that higher contract pitchers (that we typically chase) do fine...not so much this year.

 

Well, I'm trying to be factual and paint a broader picture of the possible outcomes given the countless number of variables. That's the alternative to simply declaring the Brewers front office got lucky like you did.

 

Well I won’t argue, cause I didn’t say that. I was also painting a broader picture and typically do so when posting here. So think you saw “got lucky” and ran with that. Cause my post said way more than that and I said in a way...not “we got lucky”.

 

There was the notion Stearns and the Brewers in general were smart to avoid these guys. In reality, relative to their current performance (why this thread is based off of), we probably offered a bad contract to more than just one of the players listed. So saying, “Stearns and Co. know what the hell they are doing” because none of these guys signed here is somewhat of a stretch. If we offered Lynn $8mil for this year and another team outbid is at $9mil do we really know whatcha the hell we are doing (just an example)?

 

I’m also well aware of performance varying by where you are. I have banged that drum many many times over the years.

[PeaveyFury]

Isn't it also at least worth noting that the major source of the rumors regarding the Brewers' interest was a guy on a message board? For all we know, the Brewers DIDN'T have actual interest in or make offers to Cobb/Lynn/whomever. The only one that had some actual reporters that said the Brewers were in on seemed to be Darvish.

[MrTPlush]

Isn't it also at least worth noting that the major source of the rumors regarding the Brewers' interest was a guy on a message board? For all we know, the Brewers DIDN'T have actual interest in or make offers to Cobb/Lynn/whomever. The only one that had some actual reporters that said the Brewers were in on seemed to be Darvish.

 

There were reports on many of them, some more detailed than others. Like most rumors who knows what was or wasn’t accurate...or what was never reported.

 

The real stuff wasn’t as fun as the fantasy stuff so it got buried quick.

[Brewer Fever]

Isn't it also at least worth noting that the major source of the rumors regarding the Brewers' interest was a guy on a message board? For all we know, the Brewers DIDN'T have actual interest in or make offers to Cobb/Lynn/whomever. The only one that had some actual reporters that said the Brewers were in on seemed to be Darvish.

 

Another important variable, thanks for noting it. If anything out there was specific it seemed to indicate that the Brewers did their due diligence and any specific numbers on offers seemed to show the Brewers were nowhere near the terms of what these guys signed for. If memory serves, the Brewers offer to Darvish wasn't even close and Cobb reportedly only got a 1-year offer.

 

So before you chalk it up to luck, you have to consider at least 3 things: they may not have even been after some of these guys, the price tag placed on them might have been much less risky and in line with their performance, and finally the possibility that any and all of these guys could have fared much better with this run saving defense and a pitching coach producing above average results.

 

I know it takes time to erase bad memories but Brewers fans might have to start looking at this as a place pitchers go and improve, rather than get worse as we have long been accustomed to.

[Brewer Fever]

There were reports on many of them, some more detailed than others. Like most rumors who knows what was or wasn’t accurate...or what was never reported.

 

The real stuff wasn’t as fun as the fantasy stuff so it got buried quick.

 

And unfortunately it seems like the fantasy stuff stuck and the real details fell by the wayside. It's what leads to conclusions that the Brewers simply got lucky.

[MrTPlush]

There were reports on many of them, some more detailed than others. Like most rumors who knows what was or wasn’t accurate...or what was never reported.

 

The real stuff wasn’t as fun as the fantasy stuff so it got buried quick.

 

And unfortunately it seems like the fantasy stuff stuck and the real details fell by the wayside. It's what leads to conclusions that the Brewers simply got lucky.

 

[sarcasm]Yah, that totally makes sense. Cause once again I definitely said the “Brewers got lucky”. Also I definitely got stuck on the fantasy details.

 

Cause if you look back I was a massive HH19 believer from start to end.[/sarcasm]

 

 

I wasn’t

 

[TooLiveBrew]

Ok, back to a civil discussion please. Both sides have had their say.

 

Happy thoughts folks!

[Point Beer Is Best]

I just looked up Swarzak's stats since he was a guy many here would have liked to have brought back. He got hurt on the second day of the season and landed on the 60 day DL. In 14.1 IP, he's given up 19 hits (5 for HR), 10 runs, 7 walks (good for a 1.814 WHIP). Obviously he's working himself back from an injury, so this one may be chalked up to just luck, but we may have dodged another bullet there.

[TURBO]

Chris Archer

 

His ERA has jumped the past 3 years. His WHIP has gone the same direction, UP! Hits per 9 innings, yup, UP!

 

His ERA is 4.41 and WHIP is at 1.381 this season. Strike-outs per 9 innings is more than 2 less than last year.

 

He walks a ton of guys, and gives up a LOT of home runs.

 

I think he is trending down, and not any kind of an upgrade. For what he would cost, it's a hard pass for me.

 

I still think we dodged a bullet, and I hope he is not someone DS is still considering at the deadline, or any other time.

[Roderick]

I just looked up Swarzak's stats since he was a guy many here would have liked to have brought back. He got hurt on the second day of the season and landed on the 60 day DL. In 14.1 IP, he's given up 19 hits (5 for HR), 10 runs, 7 walks (good for a 1.814 WHIP). Obviously he's working himself back from an injury, so this one may be chalked up to just luck, but we may have dodged another bullet there.

 

Whether injury or the every other year a reliever sucks - we definitely dodged a bullet there at the price he signed for 2 yrs/ $14M.

 

And I was one hoping to resign him (maybe not at that pricetag), before we ended up signing Albers.