Offensive Woes

[trwi7]

How about finding an offensive upgrade at short?

 

Arcia's had another 0-fer, and the batting average is .212.

 

I already mentioned packaging him and Suter together. We could probably get Machado.

 

Doubt it.

[pacopete4]

Guess that needed to be in blue. Arica isn’t and shouldn’t be going anywhere.

[istanbultaye]

Orlando Arcia is going to be the starting SS for the brewers at least until he hits arby, and rightfully so, as he has the potential to be a great defensive SS with a league average bat. If he's still barely cracking a .700 OPS after 2019, I could see them potentially going a different route then. I would rather not see another 5+ year stretch of revolving door crappy 35 year old short stops starting for the brewers any sooner than absolutely necessary.

 

Shaw has been in a slump, but it's way too soon to be panicking about him. Braun started out dreadfully cold, but picked up the pace, but has now been slumping a bit the past couple weeks as well. As mentioned by others, Santana has really been heating up the last couple weeks, so if he can keep it going, and some other guys get it back together a bit, and the offense would be mostly back on track.

 

That leaves 2b and C as the main places that have potential to improve. Sogard is demoted, so the work has started there to begin cycling the options. I understand Villar has been putting up a pretty empty, very mediocre .600s OPS that's heavily inflated by a lot of infield hits, but, I think they need to just push him out there every day at least through May, and possibly into June, and see what is out there on the trade market if he's still not catching the 2016 spark. I'm fine with pulling up a Nate Orf or Dubon or whoever else to rotate on the bench, but no real point in giving them significant playing time unless Villar just isn't hacking it through June, and no real improvements have come available on the trade market.

 

For Catcher, I'm not as concerned as many are, as Pina has pretty consistently put up a decent .700+ OPS as a Catcher from minors to MLB throughout his career. If he can get back to that, even if he doesn't get all the way back to last years' .750, C stops being a black hole in the lineup at that point. I think, similar to Villar, they have to at least give him through May before they start pushing other options into more playing time. That said, I don't really know how Bethancourt compares defensively with Pina? It's been mentioned that he's got solid D on broadcasts a time or two I think, but I always take those comments with a heavy dose of salt, against my doctor's advice..

 

With Vogt's continued injury struggles this year, and suspect defense, who knows if he'll even end up getting any chance this year, so it would seem like Bethancourt and Nottingham are the only other guys to even give a shot to. I harbor a lot of doubt that a legit catching improvement over Pina would come available in a trade scenario, though I admittedly don't keep up with other mlb/milb teams' rosters like a lot of folks on here do.

[adambr2]

We said the same things about Alcides Escobar in 2009, that he wasn't going anywhere and would be our SS for a long time to come.

 

That isn't a knock on Arcia, just a reminder that everything is always subject to change based.on what opportunities come about.

[istanbultaye]

I guess I'll add the caveat, that if a trade to pick up a top 30 pitcher in the MLB comes along, and Arcia is required to get it done, then I guess I can live with that.

[JimH5]

He's in a battle with Escobar and Freddy Galvis for least valuable regular SS in baseball. He's showing an unwillingness or inability to draw a walk. And he's leading all shortstops in hitting the ball on the ground. His wRC+ is 46, which is Yunieskyesque.

 

Once the strikeout bullpen takes over a game, his defensive value becomes unnecessary, so it's easy to double switch him out of games.

 

He was the top prospect in the system, and now, 200+ games into his career, he looks more like a bust than a star.

 

He's still young enough to turn it around, but I wish he would, because this year, he's been an easy out.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

He's in a battle with Escobar and Freddy Galvis for least valuable regular SS in baseball. He's showing an unwillingness or inability to draw a walk. And he's leading all shortstops in hitting the ball on the ground. His wRC+ is 46, which is Yunieskyesque.

 

Once the strikeout bullpen takes over a game, his defensive value becomes unnecessary, so it's easy to double switch him out of games.

 

He was the top prospect in the system, and now, 200+ games into his career, he looks more like a bust than a star.

 

He's still young enough to turn it around, but I wish he would, because this year, he's been an easy out.

 

Are we seriously making the determination based on a month and a half of 2018 games, and not even taking Arcia's solid 2017 numbers into account?

[JimH5]

His solid numbers weren't anything special. .324 OBP .407 SLG. 25th in (FG) WAR, 21st in wRC+. among SS with 300×+ Plate Appearances.

 

He has youth and a cheap contract on his side, and maybe he'll get better. But right now, he pounds it into the dirt way too much. He's got a .248 OBP and has scored 6 runs all year. In a thread about offensive woes, Arcia is a deserving target of criticism.

[Fear The Chorizo]

With regards to Arcia, half of his 2018 hits have occurred in just 5 multi-hit games. He's had 11 1-hit games, and 16 o-fers...more K's than hits and just 5 walks hitting in front of the pitcher when more often than not he could be getting pitched around if there's runners on (rare towards the bottom of the Brewer batting order this year, I know) and Arcia would lay off pitches outside the zone he can't do damage with. He's been consistently a non-factor offensively, and that needs to change for him to stay on the field everyday regardless of how great his defense is.

 

His 2018 statline currently matches up closer to his 2016 MLB cup of coffee, which is troubling - because in 2017 he made some strides offensively to the point where he was an occasional difference-maker at the bottom of the lineup and his bat didn't negatively hamper his value as a player.

 

Seems to me like his approach has gone downhill at the plate - and it never was good to begin with - probably trying to do too much with at bats trying to swing his way out of a rough start, and that's making it worse.

[3and2Fastball]

Brewers are currently 27th in MLB in OPS & OBP (only Miami, San Diego, & Baltimore are worse) and the Brewers are 22nd in BA

[pacopete4]

Is batting Arica 8th partly the reason for lack of growth? Mentioned above that he should be patient and get walks as an 8th place hitter but I see it as about the exact opposite. A lot of the times you are expanding your zone so that you don't get to that spot in the order for certain reasons.

[jerichoholicninja]

Is batting Arica 8th partly the reason for lack of growth? Mentioned above that he should be patient and get walks as an 8th place hitter but I see it as about the exact opposite. A lot of the times you are expanding your zone so that you don't get to that spot in the order for certain reasons.

 

In his career, Arcia has a .269 AVG and a .325 OBP in the 8 spot, which are both the highest of any spot he's hit in.

 

Unlike many others here, I just think he's a terrible hitter. You can throw out the "he was young for every level" excuse all you want but he's really only been a competent hitter for all of one season in AA. And even that wasn't anything special.

[adambr2]

They really do need to try something different. Try a different lineup order. Fire Coles. Bat the pitcher 8th. Promote Orf and start him. All of the above, I really don’t know. But they are at the point of doing something or some things drastic to try to light a spark. This is not just a funk or an early season “sleepy” offense. This has been one of the worst offenses in baseball for almost a full season now.

 

We’re well past the point of just being patient and waiting for them to come out of it on their own.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'd much rather Arcia draw walks more often than not to get to the pitcher's spot instead of swinging at garbage. Doing so rolls the lineup over more for the top of the order to start fresh innings, and the occasional pitcher fluke hit in those situations almost always leads to crooked numbers.

 

However, Arcia's been so bad offensively teams aren't even really trying to pitch around him to get to the pitcher's spot with runners on - so this is probably a mute point.

[JosephC]

1. Cain

2. Yelich (LF/RF)

3. Braun/Santana (based on matchup OR hot bat plays)

4. Shaw

5. Aguilar/Thames

6. Pina

7. Arcia

8. pitcher

9. Villar (everyday player, 3 week audition)

[pacopete4]

I would lead off Santana right now and stack Cain - Yelich - Braun - Shaw behind him. Put Villar in the 6th spot for two weeks against RHP's and leave him.

[monty57]

Arcia was brought up before his bat was ready in order to spur fan interest by bringing up the team's Top Prospect during a rebuild. I'd be fine with sending him down to refine his approach, but all that would do is open up the everyday SS position for Perez or Sogard, and that's not an answer. That would really be a move to help future teams at the expense of this year. I'm fine with that, but I don't think that's where management is right now.

 

I like JosephC's idea of batting Villar 9th in an effort to get someone on base in front of the few consistent bats we have in the lineup.

 

This offseason, many posters thought it odd that Stearns built a team that would have good hitters sitting on the bench every day while subpar players would be on the field every day. That was countered with praise for the options the team would have with all of their "depth." That result has been that good hitters are sitting on the bench while management shuffles subpar players around the field and between the majors and minors in a futile effort to find someone who can do anything positive. It's fun watching Cain and Yelich play, but it's no surprise that Villar/Sogard/Perez are not the answer when they were the problem last year.

[FVBrewerFan]

Arcia is not the problem. Everyone knew he would be a marginal hitter this season. Yea, he hasn't even been that yet but he will be. You may not like the excuse, but he is still very young.

 

The fault lies with the big bats. The top 5 in the order is where most of the runs should be coming from. Thames injury doesn't help, and Braun/Santana/Shaw all need to produce more than they have. Even Cain/Yelich haven't set the world on fire. Can't say they've had a bad year at the plate so far, just sort of meh.

 

That's the main reason they're not scoring more runs, the big bats need to carry the load. That said, a black hole in the line-up after the 5 spot doesn't exactly help the cause.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

RHP

Cain CF

Santana RF

Yelich LF

Shaw 3B

Braun/Aguilar 1B

Villar/Perez 2B

Pina/Bandy C

Pitcher

Arcia/Perez SS

 

LHP

Cain CF

Santana RF

Yelich LF

Braun/Aguilar 1B

Shaw 3B

Perez/Villar 2B

Pina/Bandy C

Pitcher

Arcia SS

[pacopete4]

 

1. Cain- CF

2. Santana- RF

3. Yelich- LF

4. Braun- 1B

5. Shaw- 3B

6. Villar- 2B

7. Pina- C

Pitcher

9. Arcia- SS

 

This is a lineup I could get behind for the next couple of weeks. Try to get Cain and Santana on base for Yelich - Braun - Shaw. Let Villar hack it at 2B for a couple of weeks and push Arica to the 9th spot hoping to turn it over for the top of the lineup a bit more.

[monty57]

Arcia is not the problem. Everyone knew he would be a marginal hitter this season. Yea, he hasn't even been that yet but he will be. You may not like the excuse, but he is still very young.

 

The fault lies with the big bats. The top 5 in the order is where most of the runs should be coming from. Thames injury doesn't help, and Braun/Santana/Shaw all need to produce more than they have. Even Cain/Yelich haven't set the world on fire. Can't say they've had a bad year at the plate so far, just sort of meh.

 

That's the main reason they're not scoring more runs, the big bats need to carry the load. That said, a black hole in the line-up after the 5 spot doesn't exactly help the cause.

 

Cain and Yelich weren't brought in to be "big bats," they were brought in to be all around players who could get on base at the top of the order. Cain is .037 OBP points above his career avg and .013 SLG points above his career avg. Yelich is .002 OBP points below his career avg and .021 SLG points above his career average. Other than Yelich getting hurt for a bit, they are doing as well as anyone should have expected of them.

 

Shaw isn't hitting as well as he did last year, but is still hitting at an acceptable level. Thames and Aguilar have hit very well. Santana has had a rough start and while Braun's .733 OPS isn't terrible, we have grown to expect more than that for him.

 

The problem is that the bottom of the order is in the .500's or low .600's for OPS. There is no way that someone with an OPS in the .500's should spend much time on a MLB roster unless they are a pitcher. Perez, Bandy, Pina and Arcia are all there, and have combined for 307 PAs. Sogard has 67 PAs with a .344 OPS. That's OPS, not OBP! Throw in the pitchers and guys like Nottingham and Phillips who don't have many PAs, and we're getting nearly half of the team's 2018 PAs from guys with an OPS under .600. That's a major problem.

 

For point of reference, only two players last year got 300 PAs (none got 350 PAs) with an OPS under .600. They were Trevor Plouffe (.590) and Adam Engel (.517). Only 44 players got 300+ PAs with an OPS under .700. Only 26 got 400+ PAs.

 

That means most MLB teams have around one regular with an OPS under .700 but almost no one allows guys with an OPS under .600 to stick around.

 

The 2018 Brewers:

 

Santana, 112 AB, .665 OPS

Villar, 100 AB, .641 OPS

Perez, 66 AB, .599 OPS

Bandy, 51 AB, .562 OPS

Pina, 72 AB, .546 OPS

Arcia, 104 AB, .546 OPS

Sogard, 60 AB, .344 OPS

Phillips, 13 AB, .308 OPS

Nottingham, 5 AB, .286 OPS

Franklin, 2 AB, .000 OPS

 

Give Phillips, Nottingham and Franklin a break for the limited shot they've got. For the rest, we're almost 1/4 of the way into the season, so while it's still early, it's not that early. A random sampling of guys on the waiver wire should produce better than we've got from these guys.

 

Santana's track record shows that he's better than this, and he seems to be heating up a bit. Arcia should get sent to the minors to get straightened out, but unfortunately we don't have anyone who could replace him. That we don't have better options than Villar, Perez, Bandy, Pina, Franklin and Sogard is the reason I question our team's chances this year. We can't compete with the better teams in the league when nearly half our offense shouldn't be playing in the majors.

[Boomer5]

We are 7th in the NL in home runs. That’s the problem because for as long as I can remember we have never been a team that scores unless we hit HRs.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

If all these guys heat up, can we change the thread title to "Offensive WHOA SOLVDD"? Like maybe we set a benchmark for team OPS+, and once we hit, bam! New thread title.

[adambr2]

Someone brought up that Cain and Yelich are doing exactly what we expected from them when we signed them, and that’s true and also kind of scary. They are doing exactly what was hoped of them and yet nothing has changed.

 

If people really thought becoming a lower strikeout team would be the answer, it hasn’t been so far, because we are indeed striking out less.

[Boomer5]

Cain and Yelich have done exactly what they were signed to do, get on base. For the most part they have done that. They aren’t elite offensive players and they weren’t brought here for that; they are professional hitters who can work a count, hit for average and draw walks. They are doing that.

 

As someone already mentioned its the 3-5 in the lineup that hasn’t brought them home, and yes, RBIs matter.

 

I think we all knew Pina, Villar, and Sogard would be terrible because, well they are terrible hitters. I admit I’m surprised by Arcia. He hit reasonably well last year so I didn’t see the auto out SS we have today.