Offensive Woes

[reillymcshane]

Our offensive woes really go around, but the biggest issues are SS, 2B and catcher.

 

SS is not really worth messing with as Arcia still has a lot of upside - and showed a decent bat last year. Not great, but okay. With his youth and defense, he can still be a good player even if he doesn't hit that much. Plus, there's other spots to address that aren't as bright.

 

2B - let's face it, Sogard is not the future. Perez is a limited player best suited for utility work. Villar offers the most upside after this productive 2016, but it just seems like that is the outlier. None of these guys look like they are league average players.

 

Unfortunately, Dubon's injury takes away one option. That means a trade - or Nate Orf.

 

As for trades, Jed Lowrie would be a good get - but Oakland is playing well and probably won't want to give him up. Perhaps if they fade he will be made available. Starlin Castro would be okay - but he makes a lot of money and is under contract through 2019. Dozier is having a down year - but would be a good get if he's not too expensive.

 

The team could take a flyer on someone like Neil Walker as well.

 

Otherwise, Orf would be a big risk. He offers little upside - but he has his good points (good batting average, solid glove).

 

I'd say the team should either rid themselves of Sogard, and just let Villar play for an extended time - 4-6 weeks - and see if he comes around. They could then keep an eye on the trade market and move on from Villar if he falters.

 

The other option is Orf. You only do that if you think Villar is toast. If that's he case, move on from the guy now. No point in waiting. Just let him go, bring up Orf and tell him he's got a couple of months to show us what he can do. If he does well, then great. If not, you turn to the trade market.

 

Catcher - At this point, I'm not counting on Vogt coming back. Bandy looks like a minor leaguer, so I don't see the value of hanging on to him and hoping something suddenly changes. As for Pina, he's the best of a bad situation. He's probably fine as a reserve, but his nice 2017 might be a bit of a fluke.

 

The options at catcher aren't great. I like Nottingham, but it's probably too early to go with him. I'd explore the trade market. Wilson Ramos of Tampa is interesting. A reunion with Lucroy would be welcome - even if Luc isn't that great anymore. Wellington Castro - from the White Sox - has been okay in the past few years. He's not having a good year thus far - but he would likely be an upgrade for us. The best get would be J.T. Realmuto - but he would cost a lot. Still, if you wanted a guy who could be a #1 catcher for a few more years - he's the man.

[Boomer5]

As discussed in the rumors section, we don’t have the minor league trade capital to make a major trade as our system hasn’t performed like we had hoped and outside of Hiura we don’t have a single player that projects as a star.

 

Plus teams aren’t likely to make a major trade in May.

 

Our best bet is to ride this out and hope these guys get hot or at least not ice cold at some point.

[adambr2]

As discussed in the rumors section, we don’t have the minor league trade capital to make a major trade

 

Yes we do. Hiura is definitely a worthy trade centerpiece, as is Burnes. Freddy Peralta has worked his way into that discussion. Medeiros is on his way back up as is Ortiz. Either of Woodruff or Phillips probably carry low top 100 value. Someone like Supak or Ponce would be a very nice secondary piece for a team.

 

Ray and Erceg run hot and cold but are both holding their own in AA. These guys have good value in a deal. As do many others I haven’t listed.

 

It’s not a top heavy system but it’s a very deep one. It would probably be more quantity than quality oriented unless Hiura was included but they absolutely have the trade chips to make a major deadline deal if they want to. I’m not specifically advocating doing that but they definitely can.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

As discussed in the rumors section, we don’t have the minor league trade capital to make a major trade

 

Yes we do. Hiura is definitely a worthy trade centerpiece, as is Burnes. Freddy Peralta has worked his way into that discussion. Medeiros is on his way back up as is Ortiz. Either of Woodruff or Phillips probably carry low top 100 value. Someone like Supak or Ponce would be a very nice secondary piece for a team.

 

Ray and Erceg run hot and cold but are both holding their own in AA. These guys have good value in a deal. As do many others I haven’t listed.

 

It’s not a top heavy system but it’s a very deep one. It would probably be more quantity than quality oriented unless Hiura was included but they absolutely have the trade chips to make a major deadline deal if they want to. I’m not specifically advocating doing that but they definitely can.

 

It's also worth noting that unless unless the Brewers are after a player with a inexpensive contract with multiple years of control, such as Realmuto, the trade cost shouldn't be extremely high. I would consider both the Swarzak and Walker deals "major" from the Brewers' prospective, and the prospect capital needed for both was relatively nil. Even less to get Jeffress back. There are always nice players available for relatively little cost.

[FVBrewerFan]

This is a perfect situation to try Bethancourt at C. Similar to the Sogard/Orf situation there is no down side. It would be hard for Bethancourt to be worse than Bandy. Bring him up, like yesterday. See how it goes for a while, and if he sucks bring Nottingham up. I just don't see any reason not to play it out that way.

 

At SS, Arcia started out slowly last season too, then got red hot, and leveled off at the end of the year. It's one month, no reason to panic. Let him play every day and see wha tyou get. I don't see any other option here.

 

2B, just let Villar play every day for the rest of this month. Let him settle in and see what he can do. As with Arcia, his numbers aren't so low that he can't recover. At this point in the season one hot week will have a huge impact on the production numbers. Orf, whatever, sure why not as UT. But the real plan B is Dubon if his injury isn't too serious. If Villar isn't getting it done by AS break, and Dubon isn't an option, then you go out and rent someone (like Walker last year.)

 

That's how I see it. What will really have a bigger impact on scoring more runs? Not marginally improving SS, 2B,C. The big bats need to carry the load, including Thames when he gets back.

[JosephC]

Brewers likely get low-balled if putting Hiura on the market in search of a plus veteran player. #1 thing in his development right now should be getting innings in the field, and the fact that he's DH-ing speaks volumes about that elbow. The Brewers might say the elbow isn't an issue, but I doubt any other GM's would believe it. Only one way Hiura proves that elbow is good, and that's by logging extensive innings in the field. Until he does that he's a 21 year old DH.

 

The Brewers have more than enough to make trades for back-end-starters, relievers, non-middle of the order bats...but if looking for a middle-of-the-order bat or a #2/#3 starter or better, then I question how much value they have in the minor leagues to swing that type of deal. Most of the top 10 guys that had a chance to bump up their stock have gotten off to mediocre starts and are not looking anything like top 100 prospects anymore. Ray, Erceg and Ortiz winding up on the DL...if those guys weren't firmly off top 100 lists then they should be now. Lutz has been better lately but still looks like he may be over-matched in full season ball. Even Peralta has some issues if looking to trade. He's not a very big guy and his walk rate has been high each of the last two seasons. I'd guess most opposing teams would look at him as a bullpen guy. Once out of the top 10, most of the guys in the next tier (Houser, Diplan, Gatewood) have gotten off to bad starts.

 

If I'm an opposing GM, if talking with Milwaukee about trading for a good veteran player, I start with Josh Hader (who the Brewers should remove from trade consideration), Domingo Santana (I likely value him much, much higher than MLB GMs would), Travis Shaw, Christian Yelich (if I have the payroll space to add him) and from the prospects the only names I would put in with those veterans are Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. I'm sure I'm forgetting a name or two, but off the top of my head that's it. Everybody else would be 3rd or 4th pieces in a major trade. And yeah, even Hiura. I don't like trading for hurt guys and I don't think many GMs outside of Billy Beane do either. Hard for me to believe that GMs would give the Brewers top 50 value for Hiura (on my board it's 43.73 million in surplus value), and if that's the case then the wise move is for the Brewer's to keep him.

[xisxisxis]

We need to get better production out of the 4 black holes in the offense (SP, 2B, SS, C) quickly or this is going to be a long season. There isn’t any solution to the abysmal batting performance from our SP so that position is what it is. At C there really isn’t a short term solution, we could try Betancourt, but he isn’t likely to be the answer and while I like Nottingham I don’t think his bat is ML ready. At SS, I doubt Dubon is ready even when healthy and Arcia is really suspect as a long term solution as he has looked complete lost at the plate this year. When Villar routinely starts at 2B he isn’t a black hole but he also isn’t the answe given the other positional issues (he could be if we had an average/above average C/SS). Hiura is the likely only in house candidate who would bring a significant improvement to the offense, but they need to deal with his arm issue ASAP and stop dicking around. If he needs surgery, shut him down and if they think more “rest” will solve the issue they need more opinions... unfortunately without a trade we are stuck with as close to 4 automatic outs out of 9 in the lineup and we only get a partial break when we have the DH. Stearns needs to be looking for solutions outside the organization NOW. If the Mets continue their downward spiral and are out of it in July Asdrubal Cabrera could be available for cheap. Once Daniel Murphy is back, Howie Kendrick might be available. Neil walker could be available shortly as Drury should be back from the DL before Bird. While none of them are great long-term solutions they could work for the remainder of this season.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

We need to get better production out of the 4 black holes in the offense (SP, 2B, SS, C) quickly or this is going to be a long season. There isn’t any solution to the abysmal batting performance from our SP so that position is what it is. At C there really isn’t a short term solution, we could try Betancourt, but he isn’t likely to be the answer and while I like Nottingham I don’t think his bat is ML ready. At SS, I doubt Dubon is ready even when healthy and Arcia is really suspect as a long term solution as he has looked complete lost at the plate this year. When Villar routinely starts at 2B he isn’t a black hole but he also isn’t the answe given the other positional issues (he could be if we had an average/above average C/SS). Hiura is the likely only in house candidate who would bring a significant improvement to the offense, but they need to deal with his arm issue ASAP and stop dicking around. If he needs surgery, shut him down and if they think more “rest” will solve the issue they need more opinions... unfortunately without a trade we are stuck with as close to 4 automatic outs out of 9 in the lineup and we only get a partial break when we have the DH. Stearns needs to be looking for solutions outside the organization NOW. If the Mets continue their downward spiral and are out of it in July Asdrubal Cabrera could be available for cheap. Once Daniel Murphy is back, Howie Kendrick might be available. Neil walker could be available shortly as Drury should be back from the DL before Bird. While none of them are great long-term solutions they could work for the remainder of this season.

 

You are declaring Arcia isn't a long-term solution? He's 23, provides Gold-Glove caliber defense and hit a very respectable .277 with a .731 OPS last year. If there is anyone they need to "ride it out" with, it's Arcia. He's a building block, and isn't going anywhere anytime soon.

[FVBrewerFan]

Arcia has a weird .221 OPS vs LHP so far this season, that will certainly correct itself. Lots of knowledgeable fans here, but we all fall victim to the small sample size at times. One of six months in the books, and we act like the results so far = results of the entire season. Give it some time!

[xisxisxis]

You are declaring Arcia isn't a long-term solution?

 

I don’t think the phrase “really suspect” is a declaration that he is not. If you took it to mean that would “deep concerns” work better. As others have pointed out he had very little success in the minors. There are always places for great fielding SS in teams that don’t have so many holes in their lineup, but with the lack of production from the other spots, his defense (which hasn’t been stellar so far) doesn’t make up for his offensive failings. If we could get an upgrade at C and 2B then sure Arcia has a long-term shot for the Brewers. Not every underproduction has to be addressed, but if you only bring defense to the table you need to be able to lay down a bunt or hit the ball to the right side to move a runner to third. He can be a lot more productive with his outs than he has been and he might not benefit from a demotion, but if we can’t find answers at 2B and C then Ss should definitely be in the discussion.

[3and2Fastball]

It was not a stretch to imagine that Shaw, Pina, Santana, & Arcia would produce at significantly lower levels than in 2017. Several people here predicted that, in fact (for the record, I wasn't one of them)

 

It does appear that Stearns calculated that possibility, as well, acquired Yelich & Cain at bargain pricing to be part of the 2019-2022 "window", didn't trade away young pitching, didn't overpay for free agent pitching, and continues to let our top pitching prospects develop in MiLB

 

We are still a rebuilding team.

[Baldkin]

There are always places for great fielding SS in teams that don’t have so many holes in their lineup, but with the lack of production from the other spots, his defense (which hasn’t been stellar so far) doesn’t make up for his offensive failings.

 

Based on what?

 

He's at +6 DRS (3rd in MLB) already, +4 Rtz and a 17.7 UZR/150 (4th in MLB). He's been outstanding defensively.

[adambr2]

There are always places for great fielding SS in teams that don’t have so many holes in their lineup, but with the lack of production from the other spots, his defense (which hasn’t been stellar so far) doesn’t make up for his offensive failings.

 

Based on what?

 

He's at +6 DRS (3rd in MLB) already, +4 Rtz and a 17.7 UZR/150 (4th in MLB). He's been outstanding defensively.

 

Don’t think he’s arguing that he hasn’t been outstanding defensively, he’s arguing that you still need to offer something with the bat to be starter worthy. He doesn’t need to be an offensive stud, but he does need to not be a black hole.

[monty57]

To me, the Brewers need to prove they're contenders before they should consider making any trades. So far, they have looked horrible against decent competition, so trading away a Hiura or Burnes seems foolish when they could be sellers anyway in a couple of months.

 

Unless something happens like the Yankees DFAing Walker, they need to play with the guys they've got for a while to see where they stand. If they're at or near first place in July, then there might be an argument to be made that they should sacrifice some future for this year.

[Lee16]

Breathe a sigh of relief everyone, Nick Franklin is on the way to jump start the offense.

[jerichoholicninja]

Breathe a sigh of relief everyone, Nick Franklin is on the way to jump start the offense.

 

Sigh breathed. He's going on the DL.

[JohnBriggs12]

It's time to relegate Santana to bench role, send down Phillips, let Aguilar start 4-5 times a week, and bring up Choi for one or two starts a week at first and keep Braun in OF.

[trwi7]

The same Braun with a .283 OBP that needs multiple days off every couple of weeks to keep him from going on the DL?

[pacopete4]

Do we have a different Santana other than the one named Domingo? The one that over the last 14 days is OPS'ing over 1.000? The one that seems to be heating up a bit and actually playing an okay RF?

 

Color me confused.

[bill hAll Star]

It's time to relegate Santana to bench role, send down Phillips, let Aguilar start 4-5 times a week, and bring up Choi for one or two starts a week at first and keep Braun in OF.

 

It's already happening this year - Aguilar is much worse against RHP.

 

I definitely understand the struggles of Domingo, but give Aguilar more ABs against RHP and his numbers will begin to plummet.

[FVBrewerFan]

Do we have a different Santana other than the one named Domingo? The one that over the last 14 days is OPS'ing over 1.000? The one that seems to be heating up a bit and actually playing an okay RF?

 

Color me confused.

 

Only confusing when you don't realize the agenda at hand.

[tmwiese55]

The same Braun with a .283 OBP that needs multiple days off every couple of weeks to keep him from going on the DL?

 

Braun since April 17 so I think 18 games is 18/60 with 4 walks, site I was on didn't have HBP if there has been any for him. But without that's 300/343. He has been bad in May so far so shorten that up and it's bad. But pretty much since the first couple weeks of atrociousness he's been 'fine'. Just like Santana has been of late. What's killing them is often having 44% of their ABs coming from near free outs. Even the good guys not doing as good as we all hoped, they've been ok or at least not what's killing you lately. Along with what seems to my eye test poor average with RISP (not sure if it's backed up by stats, but seems reminiscent of last year).

[adambr2]

The same Braun with a .283 OBP that needs multiple days off every couple of weeks to keep him from going on the DL?

 

He’s been getting a free pass because 1) There have been much bigger problems in the offense, and 2) He’s had some really big late game hits in crunch time. But yeah, a .283 OBP is awful. If he’s even at .300 at years end that would be terribly disappointing.

 

Honestly we really miss Thames.

[clancyphile]

How about finding an offensive upgrade at short?

 

Arcia's had another 0-fer, and the batting average is .212.

[pacopete4]

How about finding an offensive upgrade at short?

 

Arcia's had another 0-fer, and the batting average is .212.

 

I already mentioned packaging him and Suter together. We could probably get Machado.