Offensive Woes

[SomewhereInTime]

We are currently on pace to score 611 runs this season. This would be the lowest run total in franchise history since 1976 (not including strike shortened seasons)

 

On an interesting side note, was surprised to learn that although we finished 20th last year in runs scored, the Brewers did score more runs than they did in 2011.

[JimH5]

Lots of people watch soccer, so...

 

Thats their problem.

 

It's not just the Brewers, the watchability of MLB has been declining for ~5 years now. Strikeouts at an all-time high, batting average near top-10 lowest in history. More strikeouts than hits for the first time ever. Time of game still ridiculously long. Virtually all pitchers currently using illegal substances.

 

The attendance decline has been accelerating so I assume there will be more action taken by the league in the offseason.

 

What I especially noticed at Sunday's game was how quiet the crowd was. There were 38,000 people there, and the events on the field seemed to have little impact on the noise level.

 

I guess getting dominated by Chad Kuhl will do that to a crowd. And having to watch Arcia, Bandy, Sogard and the pitcher hit gives little hope for anything positive.

 

We left in the 6th after the Pirates went up 7-0, and I hadn't heard many boos up until that point. Not sure if they came out later. But I did see a late in the game photo, and the stadium had cleared out by more than half.

 

There was no reason to stay, and this team is giving us little reason to go at all.

[JohnBriggs12]

We are currently on pace to score 611 runs this season. This would be the lowest run total in franchise history since 1976 (not including strike shortened seasons)

 

On an interesting side note, was surprised to learn that although we finished 20th last year in runs scored, the Brewers did score more runs than they did in 2011.

 

Yeah, it's not just the 2B position that isn't producing. Shaw's well below his 2017 levels. Pina and Bandy are providing little. Even after a bit of a flurry, Santana's slugging .336. Even Cain is hitting 20 points under his career BA and while Braun has gotten a number of key hits, overall he's a shell of himself.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Weird saying this with Aguilar's start, but this team really misses Thames' LH power bat and approach in the middle of the lineup - particularly with Shaw off to a poor start. Santana appears to be showing legit signs of being what he was last season - which was the team's best offensive player for most of the year. Will be tough to see improved results overall if the rest of the lineup underperforms, though. Pina has showed some signs, too - unfortunate that Vogt appears to have had a setback which probably means more Bandy than what we deserve...

 

There needs to be some shakeup with the roster in order to get stability in the lineup - weird to say, but the current roster construction lends itself to having too many lineup variations that end up being nothing more than rearranging crummy deckchairs on a sinking offensive ship. If you want Arcia's defensive value at SS playing everyday, then you've got to find better offensive production out of 2B - to me at least taking baby steps is something, and frankly a move as simple as getting Sogard off the MLB roster so he can't crater offensive production at either 2B or SS would improve this team's offensive capabilities regardless of who takes his place. It's CO Springs, but Tyler Saladino is hitting over 0.300 there and is a better defender at 2B, SS, and 3B than Sogard - he's on the 40 man already, so just make the move and replace Sogard with him. Give Villar the 2B job essentially everyday, and when he needs a game once a week off have Perez or Saladino make a start. It's a travesty that Villar and Arcia have only 30 more plate appearances than Sogard at this point in the season simply by comparing their below average offensive production to Sogard's - Sogard is at -0.6 oWAR after 60 ABs, that's actually really tough to do. Arcia also has to at least provide some offensive value, too.

[buckybrewer232]

Weird saying this with Aguilar's start, but this team really misses Thames' LH power bat and approach in the middle of the lineup - particularly with Shaw off to a poor start. Santana appears to be showing legit signs of being what he was last season - which was the team's best offensive player for most of the year. Will be tough to see improved results overall if the rest of the lineup underperforms, though. Pina has showed some signs, too - unfortunate that Vogt appears to have had a setback which probably means more Bandy than what we deserve...

 

There needs to be some shakeup with the roster in order to get stability in the lineup - weird to say, but the current roster construction lends itself to having too many lineup variations that end up being nothing more than rearranging crummy deckchairs on a sinking offensive ship. If you want Arcia's defensive value at SS playing everyday, then you've got to find better offensive production out of 2B - to me at least taking baby steps is something, and frankly a move as simple as getting Sogard off the MLB roster so he can't crater offensive production at either 2B or SS would improve this team's offensive capabilities regardless of who takes his place. It's CO Springs, but Tyler Saladino is hitting over 0.300 there and is a better defender at 2B, SS, and 3B than Sogard - he's on the 40 man already, so just make the move and replace Sogard with him. Give Villar the 2B job essentially everyday, and when he needs a game once a week off have Perez or Saladino make a start. It's a travesty that Villar and Arcia have only 30 more plate appearances than Sogard at this point in the season simply by comparing their below average offensive production to Sogard's - Sogard is at -0.6 oWAR after 60 ABs, that's actually really tough to do. Arcia also has to at least provide some offensive value, too.

 

Sogard has to go. Counsell gave him his last shot with 3 starts this past weekend and he went 0 for whatever- time to move on. Releasing Sogard and bringing up Orf would be a good move, IMO. Orf deserves a shot and him being RH, you can platoon him with Villar who has been good against RH's this year.

 

Getting rid of Sogard also means Arcia is truly the EVERYDAY SS. He should only be sitting a couple times a month when he needs a day off. He's a stud defensively and should be given every opportunity to figure it out offensively. It's hard for him to do when he's sitting 3 times a week because CC needs to give Sogard at bats! Perez or Villar can play SS on the few days Arcia needs a rest.

 

If a month goes by and you still aren't seeing improved production from 2B/SS then you need to look at bringing someone in from outside the org. I would also be on board with a Bandy for Nottingham swap as well.

[FVBrewerFan]

This was my concern going into the season. Thames, Aguilar, Shaw, Pina, Arcia, Santana all had their best seasons last year. In many of those cases, it was the first full season period. Yet I think we put a lot of stock into thining guys like Shaw were almost a lock to put up those numbers again.

 

That makes it very difficult to project performance for this season. I expected a couple of those guys to improve or at least stay the same, and a couple to fall off. What we're seeing so far, most of them have fallen off. Of course, that's with the caveat there's still 5 months to go.

 

Same thing is true for Anderson by the way. Huge season last year, and there's a decent chance he will revert back to what he was the rest of his career.

[JohnBriggs12]

Orf for Sogard is the immediate move, and if he hits that eases the need for replacing Villar too, though that should still be on the table as the trading deadline nears. There's quite a few names out there that could be available, like Dozier, Panik, Schoop, and Lowrie have been mentioned. Dozier and Lowrie would be rentals but huge upgrades over Villar. By no means would trading Sogard hand the job to Villar against all RHP just because he's the lone lefty bat. His numbers vs. RHP have been okay but he still strikes out a third of the time against them and his BABIP is unsustainable. Perez hasn't been awful the last month. He's slugging .442 over the last 28 days and is hitting better for average vs. RHP.

 

IF Orf does come up, he needs to play right away, and not sit.

[bill hAll Star]

Orf can't be worse than Sogard, but I don't see Orf as much more than a Sogard-type player (.650 OPS kind of guy).

[JosephC]

Before making any roster moves, I'd still like them to start Villar at 2B for three solid weeks (unannounced) and just see how he does. Absolutely hate that they currently seem content with Arcia/Bandy and then a pitcher hitting ahead of Cain and Yelich. Way, way too much RBI potential wasted in the big off-season acquisitions by doing that. I'm not even that big a fan of Villar, but clearly at this point he has way more offensive upside than Perez and Sogard (and Blanco and Saladino and probably Orf too) and the Brewers need offense. Don't care if Villar is 9th in the order or 1st in the order, but get him ahead of the Cain/Yelich combo. If he goes out an does something like .240/.290/.370/.660 during the three weeks then bring in the reinforcements from the minors. But it's not crazy to think he could do something like .260/.330/.390/.720. .330 OBP is not ideal but is probably good enough and would give a decent kick start to the offense.

 

1. Villar

2. Cain

3. Yelich (LF/RF - depends on who plays in 4th spot)

4. Braun/Santana (starter based on matchup)

5. Shaw

6. Aguilar/Thames (Jesus job for now, platoon when Thames gets back)

7. Pina

8. Arcia

9. Pitcher

And again, wouldn't mind putting Villar in #9 spot and bouncing everyone else up one spot.

[SomewhereInTime]

Before making any roster moves, I'd still like them to start Villar at 2B for three solid weeks (unannounced) and just see how he does. Absolutely hate that they currently seem content with Arcia/Bandy and then a pitcher hitting ahead of Cain and Yelich. Way, way too much RBI potential wasted in the big off-season acquisitions by doing that. I'm not even that big a fan of Villar, but clearly at this point he has way more offensive upside than Perez and Sogard (and Blanco and Saladino and probably Orf too) and the Brewers need offense. Don't care if Villar is 9th in the order or 1st in the order, but get him ahead of the Cain/Yelich combo. If he goes out an does something like .240/.290/.370/.660 during the three weeks then bring in the reinforcements from the minors. But it's not crazy to think he could do something like .260/.330/.390/.720. .330 OBP is not ideal but is probably good enough and would give a decent kick start to the offense.

 

1. Villar

2. Cain

3. Yelich (LF/RF - depends on who plays in 4th spot)

4. Braun/Santana (starter based on matchup)

5. Shaw

6. Aguilar/Thames (Jesus job for now, platoon when Thames gets back)

7. Pina

8. Arcia

9. Pitcher

And again, wouldn't mind putting Villar in #9 spot and bouncing everyone else up one spot.

 

Villar should not be an everyday player and should be no where near the top of the lineup. To put in perspective how terrible his start to the season has been, he has been incredibly lucky, .397 BABIP with a groundball rate of 69.5%, yet his OPS is .654. 30.7% K rate, he doesn't walk anymore. I would play Sogard every day (who has been more unlucky than bad) before I would give Villar another start. 2016 Johnathon Villar is long gone and never coming back.

[xisxisxis]

I would play Sogard every day (who has been more unlucky than bad) before I would give Villar another start. 2016 Johnathon Villar is long gone and never coming back.

 

And Sogard's ceiling is Villar's current performance... I'm no Villar fan and we need to move on from him ASAP, but that doesn't mean I'm all for making a worse decision.

 

Villar is in his 26YO season and his career arc could still improve upon his current performance. Sogard is relatively old and ain't getting any better, unless of course he can perfect the stand still and don't swing and will the pitcher to throw balls approach.

 

And BABIP doesn't mean crap in small sample numbers... If I see another post quoting it in a small number of PA's I'm going to spew on my keyboard...

[stoutdude04]

I'm shocked anyone still has any faith in Sogard. I know the options aren't great, but Sogard has been awful most of his career outside of a hot stretch last year. Sogard is still striking out at a 25% clip to go with his bad luck...but at some point you have to see some results. Even the eye test hurts when watching Sogard. I too would like to see Villar get a shot for an extended stretch.

[adambr2]

Before making any roster moves, I'd still like them to start Villar at 2B for three solid weeks (unannounced) and just see how he does. Absolutely hate that they currently seem content with Arcia/Bandy and then a pitcher hitting ahead of Cain and Yelich. Way, way too much RBI potential wasted in the big off-season acquisitions by doing that. I'm not even that big a fan of Villar, but clearly at this point he has way more offensive upside than Perez and Sogard (and Blanco and Saladino and probably Orf too) and the Brewers need offense. Don't care if Villar is 9th in the order or 1st in the order, but get him ahead of the Cain/Yelich combo. If he goes out an does something like .240/.290/.370/.660 during the three weeks then bring in the reinforcements from the minors. But it's not crazy to think he could do something like .260/.330/.390/.720. .330 OBP is not ideal but is probably good enough and would give a decent kick start to the offense.

 

1. Villar

2. Cain

3. Yelich (LF/RF - depends on who plays in 4th spot)

4. Braun/Santana (starter based on matchup)

5. Shaw

6. Aguilar/Thames (Jesus job for now, platoon when Thames gets back)

7. Pina

8. Arcia

9. Pitcher

And again, wouldn't mind putting Villar in #9 spot and bouncing everyone else up one spot.

 

Villar should not be an everyday player and should be no where near the top of the lineup. To put in perspective how terrible his start to the season has been, he has been incredibly lucky, .397 BABIP with a groundball rate of 69.5%, yet his OPS is .654. 30.7% K rate, he doesn't walk anymore. I would play Sogard every day (who has been more unlucky than bad) before I would give Villar another start. 2016 Johnathon Villar is long gone and never coming back.

 

No, Sogard has been very bad. You keep saying this and while there's some truth (although his last 'hit') came on a popup 'double' that was misplayed, average luck doesn't bring Sogard's numbers up to respectability. You can be both bad and unlucky, it doesn't have to be one or the other.

 

Sogard is a barely replacement level player for his career who has somehow gotten 1700 PAs, is 32, and why he would be the one of the bunch you want to see in there everyday is a mystery to me.

 

I agree Villar hasn't been good but he's been far better than Sogard, is 6 years younger and at his best has been far better than Sogard's best year.

 

Also, you keep citing BABIP like it's completely dependent on luck when it's not. Other factors help determine BABIP and Villar will always carry a higher BABIP than Sogard. The fact that Villar's career BABIP is about 75 points higher than Sogard is not some lucky coincidence. I think your use of BABIP lacks context.

 

No one is expecting 2016 JV to return, at least I don't believe so but if you're cutting ties with one now Sogard is the easy choice and it's not really close.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm shocked anyone still has any faith in Sogard. I know the options aren't great, but Sogard has been awful most of his career outside of a hot stretch last year. Sogard is still striking out at a 25% clip to go with his bad luck...but at some point you have to see some results. Even the eye test hurts when watching Sogard. I too would like to see Villar get a shot for an extended stretch.

 

Yeah, that's just an attempt to justify unjustifiable Villar hate. Nothing more, nothing less.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Sogard's career BABIP stinks because he can't slug, so the balls he hits in the air wind up almost always landing in the field of play, where they can be turned into outs much more easily than balls landing in the bleachers. He's also not the runner Villar is, so he'll naturally get fewer infield hits. BABIP needs context like every other stat - Sogard has nothing but negative factors that should always skew his BABIP lower than average. He's not unlucky, unless it's regarding him not being blessed by the baseball gods with more ability to be a better offensive player. Villar's done nothing to justify being the longterm 2B answer for the Brewers, however he's still a vastly better offensive option than Sogard is.

 

The BABIP discussion over 60 ABs in 2018 makes no sense because of how overmatched Sogard has looked this season. In fact, aside from 50 ABs in May 2017 (OPS of 1.257, lol) and 95 ABs in June 2017 (OPS of 0.824), Sogard has been way below a replacement level player offensively for pretty much his career. Those two 2017 months saw Sogard's BABIP hovering around 0.400 - something that is also highly unsustainable. Not to beat a dead horse, but BABIP tends to even itself out with both lucky and unlucky outcomes - at least one of Sogard's SIX hits thus far this season was a gift, which likely offsets the 3-4 other hard hit balls he's had in 2018 that wound up being outs. And long, loud foul balls don't count towards being unlucky - gotta actually hit a ball fair in my book before determining if you had a few bad luck outcomes.

[SomewhereInTime]

I'm shocked anyone still has any faith in Sogard. I know the options aren't great, but Sogard has been awful most of his career outside of a hot stretch last year. Sogard is still striking out at a 25% clip to go with his bad luck...but at some point you have to see some results. Even the eye test hurts when watching Sogard. I too would like to see Villar get a shot for an extended stretch.

 

Yeah, that's just an attempt to justify unjustifiable Villar hate. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

All I said is I'd rather start Sogard, they're both bad options. If it were up to me, Orf, Wren, and Nottingham would be on a plane to Milwaukee right now. Outside of 2016, Villar has been a terrible major leaguer, this season is no different. Do you honestly think a guy who hits ground balls 70% of the time can keep up a .397 BABIP? Even if he does, his numbers have still been bad so far. The patient approach, high obp Villar is long gone.

[SomewhereInTime]

I would play Sogard every day (who has been more unlucky than bad) before I would give Villar another start. 2016 Johnathon Villar is long gone and never coming back.

 

And Sogard's ceiling is Villar's current performance... I'm no Villar fan and we need to move on from him ASAP, but that doesn't mean I'm all for making a worse decision.

 

Villar is in his 26YO season and his career arc could still improve upon his current performance. Sogard is relatively old and ain't getting any better, unless of course he can perfect the stand still and don't swing and will the pitcher to throw balls approach.

 

And BABIP doesn't mean crap in small sample numbers... If I see another post quoting it in a small number of PA's I'm going to spew on my keyboard...

 

If BABIP doesn't mean crap in small sample numbers, then neither does batting average or OPS! Of course it's a small sample size, that's why he's still being given a shot. What do you think Travis Shaw's numbers look like over his last 40 or so ABs? I don't hear anyone clamoring for him to be removed from the lineup.

[bill hAll Star]

I'm shocked anyone still has any faith in Sogard. I know the options aren't great, but Sogard has been awful most of his career outside of a hot stretch last year. Sogard is still striking out at a 25% clip to go with his bad luck...but at some point you have to see some results. Even the eye test hurts when watching Sogard. I too would like to see Villar get a shot for an extended stretch.

 

Yeah, that's just an attempt to justify unjustifiable Villar hate. Nothing more, nothing less.

 

All I said is I'd rather start Sogard, they're both bad options. If it were up to me, Orf, Wren, and Nottingham would be on a plane to Milwaukee right now. Outside of 2016, Villar has been a terrible major leaguer, this season is no different. Do you honestly think a guy who hits ground balls 70% of the time can keep up a .397 BABIP? Even if he does, his numbers have still been bad so far. The patient approach, high obp Villar is long gone.

 

If you're going to bring up BABIP, no one is going to keep it in your list there.

 

The CS guys have extremely inflated BABIPs. Nottingham is the only guy that I think I would gamble on being a serious upgrade over the incumbent at his position.

 

Sogard had a month or two of an insane BABIP last year and is back to his old self.

 

To me, as much as I hate Sogard, there's probably an equal chance to him having a positive regression to the mean and putting up a .700-.750 OPS couple of months as there is to someone like Orf or Wren being a .700-.750 OPS hitter in Milwaukee.

[tmwiese55]

If you're giving one guy a 'one last shot' for the next few weeks before going another route then Villar is clearly the one and I don't know how it's even debatable. And I hope it's done in a way to just let Villar and Arcia play almost every day instead of this revolving door way they've been doing it. That way you know and there's no excuses. You're being given a several week audition, no jerking in and out of the lineup, put up or shut.

[monty57]

The Brewers have played 20 games against teams that aren't completely terrible. In those games they are 6-14 and have been outscored 121-50.

 

Yeah, there are three teams in the NL that have been horrid to start the season, and the Brewers have been fortunate that they have played an inordinate number of their early games against them. That isn't going to continue, so they are either going to have to start playing better, or they're going to be sellers rather than buyers at the deadline.

 

The guys we're complaining about are the same ones who were so bad last year that we brought in Walker, so I'm not overly surprised to see that they're laying an egg again this season. I don't think it's a good idea, but I wouldn't be surprised if they bring up Hiura before too long. It's just a flip flop on Arcia, who was ready defensively but wasn't nearly ready with the bat when they brought him up.

[SomewhereInTime]

I would like to see what we have in Wren and Orf at least. I just don't think between Phillips, Sogard, Perez, Villar, Bandy, it'd be too difficult to find a couple of roster spots.

[bill hAll Star]

I would like to see what we have in Wren and Orf at least. I just don't think between Phillips, Sogard, Perez, Villar, Bandy, it'd be too difficult to find a couple of roster spots.

 

Look, I'd give Orf a chance over Sogard because why not?

 

That said, these guys have performed about the same or worse than your Eric Sogards of the world in the minors. They are mashing journeyman pitching in the best hitting environment in literally all of baseball.

 

These guys have been repeatedly exposed to the rule 5 draft and never touched.

 

I think if the Brewers want to be contenders, the solutions are either Hiura our external at 2B where there are not many options anyways. The distant 3rd place solution there is Villar getting somewhere in the stratosphere of 2016.

 

Wren wouldn't get much playing time but I guess would be an OK 5th OF that could pinch run. Again, not expecting much out of him at the plate, though.

 

Bandy never impressed me so I'd absolutely give Nottingham a shot. I'd take Nottingham's 20+ HR potential even if he struggles with strikeouts and has a lower AVG/OBP.

[Boomer5]

If there is any possible way Hiura can play 2B they had better get him ready ASAP.

[Jaylyn]

If there is any possible way Hiura can play 2B they had better get him ready ASAP.

 

Can't remember who said it, but they stated that Hiura has played 2B three times so far this year. All the other times he has been the DH. If his elbow is that sketchy, the Brewers need to go ahead and get it fixed and burn some playing time now instead of getting him to the majors then dealing with it.

 

Wren and Orf? I'd feel a lot better with them on the bench, than Sogard and Perez!

[Boomer5]

If there is any possible way Hiura can play 2B they had better get him ready ASAP.

 

Can't remember who said it, but they stated that Hiura has played 2B three times so far this year. All the other times he has been the DH. If his elbow is that sketchy, the Brewers need to go ahead and get it fixed and burn some playing time now instead of getting him to the majors then dealing with it.

 

Wren and Orf? I'd feel a lot better with them on the bench, than Sogard and Perez!

 

Sogard and Perez are both guys who play many positions and Stearns has seemed to value that over skill.