Offensive Woes

[Lathund]

I have to believe Sogard's days are numbered. I've liked the guy but the production just doesn't justify a spot on the roster much longer plus there's any number of middle infielders raking at AAA, albeit in the light air. Another tipoff is that the last couple games, Counsell double-switched out Arcia in favor of Perez at SS and not Sogard who had been seeing more action at SS than Perez up till now.

 

He has a .158 BABIP with a 26% LD%.

He's been incredibly unlucky.

 

That is true; he's due some better results even with the exact same approach. At the same time though, his BB% has been nearly cut in half, and K% almost doubled. The LD% is in line with his career numbers, and not too dissimilar from last season. There's also the fact that while he hits line drives, they're very weak; 10th lowest exit velocity in the majors. He's also more pull-heavy than last year, which also affects his BABIP.

 

It's still a small sample size, so these numbers could still change. But it's really not looking good.

[adambr2]

And Briggs brought up some good points about Perez seeing action at SS lately possibly being a sign that Sogard's days are numbered and the point about replacement options for him available like Dubon and Orf. I don't see anything wrong with what he said. And Sogard is totally a Briggs guy and Villar is not, FWIW.

[pacopete4]

And Briggs brought up some good points about Perez seeing action at SS lately possibly being a sign that Sogard's days are numbered and the point about replacement options for him available like Dubon and Orf. I don't see anything wrong with what he said. And Sogard is totally a Briggs guy and Villar is not, FWIW.

 

[sarcasm]You don't say? Hmm... I must've missed it.[/sarcasm]

[Baldkin]

Apologies if I came off as snarky, I was truly trying to say that all our options at 2B currently are bad, it's my biggest disappointment with the off season.... maybe they knew Dubon was all-but ready and plan to bring him up in a few weeks once he gets beyond Super-2.

[jerichoholicninja]

Apologies if I came off as snarky, I was truly trying to say that all our options at 2B currently are bad, it's my biggest disappointment with the off season.... maybe they knew Dubon was all-but ready and plan to bring him up in a few weeks once he gets beyond Super-2.

 

I really hope Dubon wasn't their plan B if Villar/Perez/Sogard failed at 2B.

[monty57]

Apologies if I came off as snarky, I was truly trying to say that all our options at 2B currently are bad, it's my biggest disappointment with the off season.... maybe they knew Dubon was all-but ready and plan to bring him up in a few weeks once he gets beyond Super-2.

 

I really hope Dubon wasn't their plan B if Villar/Perez/Sogard failed at 2B.

 

I don't know that there was a "Plan B."

 

They thought the opportunity to get Yelich was too good to pass up, so they spent their available prospect capital to get him. They decided that upgrading Phillips/Broxton at CF was more important than upgrading Villar/Sogard/Perez or Suter/Woodruff, so they used their available monetary capital to sign Cain.

 

That didn't leave us much capital to upgrade elsewhere. Stearns signed some lesser-value deals with Chacin and some relievers, but had to hope that some of the Villar/Perez/Sogard and Pina/Bandy/Vogt groups stepped up. That hasn't happened.

 

That's the life of rooting for a low-revenue team.

[pacopete4]

Is it possible that Stearns didn't upgrade 2B because he feels it was not needed? We jump to conclusions about how the upgrade of our outfield left us unable to upgrade 2B. I just don't feel that was the case. Walker could've been had and it wouldn't have changed much payroll wise. They wanted to ride with Villar and hope he turns out to be closer to 2016 and if not, hopeful that Sogard would be able to fill that role. Right now, it is too early on judging either of them but it might be that Villar just never regains the pop in his bat enough to warrant the spotty defense and it might be that Sogard just isn't a good hitter, like the rest of his career indicated. If this is the case, they will probably upgrade in July like they did a season ago.

[Brewer Fever]

It's possible Stearns didn't address 2B because it's a short term opening and stopgap options weren't any better than what they already have. Actually I'm damn near sure that's the case.

[OnaBadger58]

It's possible Stearns didn't address 2B because it's a short term opening and stopgap options weren't any better than what they already have. Actually I'm damn near sure that's the case.

Agreed. I wanted Howie Kendrick (because he's weirdly one of my favorite players), but there really wasn't many options available that would make a difference. Perhaps Castro or Lowrie will be trade options.

[pacopete4]

It's possible Stearns didn't address 2B because it's a short term opening and stopgap options weren't any better than what they already have. Actually I'm damn near sure that's the case.

 

Yes. Spending resources to get a minimal upgrade, if at all, is definitely not a great way to do business. Yelich and Cain are definite upgrades. The slew of 2B's might, probably wasn't going to be.

[monty57]

It's possible Stearns didn't address 2B because it's a short term opening and stopgap options weren't any better than what they already have. Actually I'm damn near sure that's the case.

 

Yes. Spending resources to get a minimal upgrade, if at all, is definitely not a great way to do business. Yelich and Cain are definite upgrades. The slew of 2B's might, probably wasn't going to be.

 

No way to be certain, but I'd guess that if we floated multiple top prospects or $80M around, we could have found something better than Villar or Sogard out there.

 

Everything's relative, and Stearns obviously thought the upgrades he made were better for the team than the upgrades he didn't make. I'm fine with that, as I'm used to the Brewers having to make decisions that big money teams don't have to make, and I'm glad we have someone in charge who seems to be pretty good at his job.

[FVBrewerFan]

Walker and Harrison were two names being thrown around, neither look like they would be a better option so far. I think Stearns also realizes a decent 2B can always be found during the season. I mean they found two of them last year that helped for short periods of time. Plan D, I'm sure Castro is for sale if/when Stearns wants to pay the price it would take to get him.

[pacopete4]

Cain and Yelich became available. I'm not really sure how many 2B's were actually available this offseason via trade that would've been an upgrade? Just because it was a possible need for us doesn't mean there was any market for it. That plays a large role in this.

 

I'd rather have Cain-Yelich than be playing Broxton-Phillips and having signed/traded for a minimal upgrade at 2B. I'll just say that.

[monty57]

I'd rather have Cain-Yelich than be playing Broxton-Phillips and having signed/traded for a minimal upgrade at 2B. I'll just say that.

 

 

Me too. I just don't believe that trading away four of our best prospects for Yelich and spending $80M on Cain had no effect on other moves made or not made during the offseason. Making those moves limited our ability to do other moves.

 

I love having Cain and Yelich getting on base at the top of the order and playing stellar defense. Unfortunately, we cheer for a team with a relatively small revenue stream, so having a few expensive guys (in terms of money and/or prospects required in acquisition) means we'll normally have a few holes in the roster. There is hope that Villar can bounce back and that Pina can hit a little better, but this year looks like the bottom of our order is going to make a lot of outs.

 

As time moves on, I expect that Stearns will continue to add more of "his type" of guys, sacrificing power for the ability to get on base and play defense. Yelich and Cain were a good start to that journey.

[pacopete4]

As time moves on, I expect that Stearns will continue to add more of "his type" of guys, sacrificing power for the ability to get on base and play defense. Yelich and Cain were a good start to that journey.

 

I think this is it but I think it has to the "right" player for Stearns to jump on. The way he talked about Cain/Yelich after obtaining them showed how giddy he was to get those types of players. Hopefully, a couple more of these types will come available to round out this lineup a bit better.

[adambr2]

If Dubon could learn how to draw a walk, he'd be up sooner rather than later because he checks the boxes of both not striking out much and good D at either middle infield spot. Unfortunately, not a good OBP player thus far.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Honestly, are any of our current mlb MIF options, starting or backup, capable of drawing a walk?

[bill hAll Star]

Honestly, are any of our current mlb MIF options, starting or backup, capable of drawing a walk?

 

Orf, but he still projects to Sogard-esque MLB numbers.

[pacopete4]

Sogard continues to get starts and his OPS is .328

 

Yeah, you read that correctly... .328

 

Nothing justifies what Stearns and Counsell are doing. Nothing.

[adambr2]

Sogard continues to get starts and his OPS is .328

 

Yeah, you read that correctly... .328

 

Nothing justifies what Stearns and Counsell are doing. Nothing.

 

He's still on pace for over 300 plate appearances as well.

 

The whole point of having "depth" is to not have to play guys who suck. If you do it's kind of pointless.

 

I feel like Stearns had little to do with Sogard but he was a guy who Counsell just had to have back and Stearns obliged to let him fill out his bench the way he wanted. I realize this is just a theory and can't be proven right or wrong but if it is true hopefully it's a good lesson for Counsell to do the things he does best and leave the personnel decisions to DS.

 

Whatever the case may be, it's high time to cut their losses, admit the mistake and move on. Try Orf or Dubon, I really do not care either way, neither can be worse than what we have now.

[MillerParkSouth]

DFA Sogard and give Orf a shot. It's time.

[FidoMcCokefiend]

Sogard continues to get starts and his OPS is .328

 

Yeah, you read that correctly... .328

 

Nothing justifies what Stearns and Counsell are doing. Nothing.

 

And, Sogard went 3/4 in one game. Take that game out and his slash line is...

 

.058 / .125 / .077 / .202

[xisxisxis]

He's still on pace for over 300 plate appearances as well.

 

However, yesterday was the first game he's been in this past week (3 straight games where he didn't even PH - which is the longest streak of inaction so far this season). DS/CC may have already made the decision to reduce his playing time. So that pace could change very quickly if he's now only a spot starter and the last PH bat off the bench.

 

 

The whole point of having "depth" is to not have to play guys who suck. If you do it's kind of pointless.

 

Depth implies that the players are close in their overall quality. Unfortunately, both Arcia and Villar are weak bats, and while there's a history of good defense from Arcia, Villar not so, there is an appearance of Depth given last years contributions from Perez/Sogard. But depth when all the options are crappy isn't good depth. And depth driven by outliers (and not the Gladwell type) isn't the way to build a roster you want to be competitive. Right now the Brewers have depth at MIF that is horrible...

 

 

I feel like Stearns had little to do with Sogard but he was a guy who Counsell just had to have back and Stearns obliged to let him fill out his bench the way he wanted. I realize this is just a theory and can't be proven right or wrong but if it is true hopefully it's a good lesson for Counsell to do the things he does best and leave the personnel decisions to DS.

 

At this point it's hard to tell who is the driver and who is the passenger. I hope it wasn't Stearns because he is the bigger investment as we can always replace CC with another bad bat, played forever, former Brewer (there's tons of them). If it was Stearns at the wheel on this, then he needs to learn a lot more about differentiating a real breakout vs. Luck. It was clear from Sogard's history that the blip last year was luck, and if they have a metric that 'thinks' it was breakout, they need to discard that now.

 

I don't see a quick solution, although, I would gladly jump on the Neil Walker bandwagon if he became available, as his recent production screams luck (as in bad) and not a sudden dropoff in production. Other than that, I don't see a viable addition at this point to repair the MIF. As long as they start Sogard at most once a week (really, a 24 YO SS and a 27 YO 2B don't need a lot of days "off") and Perez at most once a week then that's the best case scenario for now. I am not a Villar fan, but he needs to be on the field as much as possible so we can move on from him if he truly can't approach the 2016 Villar, or benefit from him if he does show glimpses of 2016. And please no Brandon Phillips - if you told him you would shoot him in the head if he swung at ball 4, he'd be dead the first game - the guy has no ability to take a walk...

[brewcrewdue80]

Luis Sardinas in 2015 turned to Ramon Flores in 2016 and both were removed from the team at .457 and .555 OPS. 393PAs combined. Sardinas' .457 OPS was on 105PA. Sogard is at 65PAs and .361OPS. You have to think they'll move on here shortly.

 

Not a fan of Hernan Perez but he can at least hit some HRs with the same level of expected OPS. 2 lousy utility is redundant, just give it to one and move on from the other.

[Eye Black]

Among the 13 hitters with the most at-bats this season, 9 of them are currently hitting at a lower OPS than last season. It is nice to see Santana’s bat show signs of life, but he still sits more than 200 percentage points below last year’s OPS. Villar is somehow also below his poor 2017 season marks. If the bottom half of these hitters don’t collectively start to improve it is going to continue to put too much pressure on the top half of the lineup to produce each night.

 

Here is a comparison of each players 2017 OPS with 2018 to date (through May 5th):

 

[pre]Player 2017 2018

Thames, E .877 .976

Aguilar, J .837 .937

Yelich, C .807 .832

Cain, L. .803 .832

Shaw, T. .862 .788

Braun, R .823 .761

Santana, D .875 .672

Villar, J .665 .654

Pina, M. .751 .602

Bandy, J .636 .596

Perez, H .704 .587

Arcia, O .731 .577

Sogard, E .770 .361[/pre]