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Offensive Woes


pacopete4
Just sayin' the guy started cold and went on a prolonged binge of above average success.

 

I thought he had a lot of ground ball hits and soft contact even during that hot streak. That said, I'm happy to endure the growing pains because I think it will pay off in the long run. Lucroy was one of the weak links in 2011 but there wasn't really an alternative, and look how that turned out. Every small market team that's trying to contend just a few years after a major rebuild is going to have some weaknesses. I think he really just needs a lot of reps against MLB pitching. Like Gomez and Segura before him, he has the tools but not the maturity or discipline (yet).

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[sarcasm]Not sure if I should start a Jonathan Villar appreciation thread or not but I wasn't sure where to put this...[/sarcasm]

 

 

Villar leads the Brewers (min 100 at-bats) in pitches per plate appearance at 4.31

 

This is a really good sign. His K-rate is still about 31% but if he's seeing a ton of pitches, hopefully, that will tick down a bit and the BB-rate (6.7%) will tick upwards. Either way, he is becoming a part of the success the Brewers are having rather than an anchor dragging down that lineup.

"This is a very simple game. You throw the ball, you catch the ball, you hit the ball. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains." Think about that for a while.
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Villar is hitting a lot of singles. His BABIP is over .400. I think he has like 6 extra base hits all year. Unless he starts to hit the ball with some authority his average is going to drop a bunch.
"Dustin Pedroia doesn't have the strength or bat speed to hit major-league pitching consistently, and he has no power......He probably has a future as a backup infielder if he can stop rolling over to third base and shortstop." Keith Law, 2006
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It's becoming clear with Villar he needs to avoid LHP as much as possible. He is actually hitting .756 vs RHP this season, including the slow start. He has some pop, I have no doubt slugging% will increase. Even last season he slugged higher than this.

 

The way he's going, if used almost exclusively vs RHP, I can see him hitting around .775 this season. May even be a bit conservative, but the way this team is built if he can do that I'm fine.

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he actually has been hitting more line drives / driving the ball a little bit more recently (eye test). Also, even last year he saw a lot of pitches. For him, seeing a lot of pitches isn't necessarily an indicator of whether he's going good or not to a great extent, in my opinion.
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Just sayin' the guy started cold and went on a prolonged binge of above average success.

 

I thought he had a lot of ground ball hits and soft contact even during that hot streak. That said, I'm happy to endure the growing pains because I think it will pay off in the long run. Lucroy was one of the weak links in 2011 but there wasn't really an alternative, and look how that turned out. Every small market team that's trying to contend just a few years after a major rebuild is going to have some weaknesses. I think he really just needs a lot of reps against MLB pitching. Like Gomez and Segura before him, he has the tools but not the maturity or discipline (yet).

 

My memory of Arcia last year was he started hitting everything to right field for 2-3 weeks. Not necessarily screamers, but decent hit over the infield. It really pumped up his average. Then he felt good and pulled a homer and two, but also lost his dump the ball into right field approach.

 

If he would just hit .300 dumping the ball into right field, with a few doubles sprinkled in. I would take that. Once he starts hitting like that he will also get pitched more carefully and may actually get a walk or two. He doesn't have to have a big obp or slugging to help the team, just hitting the ball enough that opposing pitchers will pitch him carefully to get to our pitcher and clear the pitchers spot in lineup.

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Saladino may get a few more at-bats but I can't imagine them moving Arcia out of a regular spot. He's so valuable defensively and we have seen those pay dividends already this year with our pitching and defense. There is a reason we are off to the best start in franchise history and it isn't because we have big boppers like previous Brewers teams.

But Saladinois is also a very skilled defensive shortstop. It's not as if we'd be going from say Arcia level defense at shortstop to Sogard and his much more limited range. Saladino is known more for his defense than his ability to hit well.

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The only explanation I can think of why Arcia hasn't been sent down yet is that they're waiting for Sogard to get it going down in CS because they'd want him to replace Arcia.

 

Arcia absolutely needs a trip to AAA. It's not like he's hitting in bad luck. He's simply not making solid contact. Working in the cages won't solve it. He needs to see work pay off.

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