Offensive Woes

[pacopete4]

Yea, I don't think it has anything to do with being late on fastballs. Braun's biggest weakness has always been swinging at pitches (especially sliders and change-ups) low and away. We're just seeing that more than ever now.

 

Did you see this:

 

http://insider.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18519/olney-hitters-who-cant-beat-the-heat-getting-left-behind

 

Braun is hitting .151 against 96+ mph fastballs since 2016. It's possible he's starting his swing a split-second sooner to keep up, and that's why he's having more trouble laying off bad pitches. Usually this is manifested in k% and bb% both going in the wrong direction, but Braun has incredible hand-eye coordination for making contact and appeared to acquire more patience (and less overconfidence) as he aged, mitigating the damage in 2016 and 2017. This looks like the year it's all coming unraveled though.

 

Incidentally, Cain's slight uptick in bb% and decrease in k% last year, combined with his incredible sb/cs ratio and sustained elite speed in the outfield, were probably big factors in the Brewers deciding to take a chance on him despite all the evidence that a contract like that for a 32-year-old is almost always a bad investment. The guy is somehow still in the middle of his physical prime, and the Brewers are looking like geniuses for signing him when hardly a single free agent is paying off for any other team.

 

Does it say what he hit against that speed previous to the last couple of seasons? He can start earlier but needs good pitch recognition or he will continue to struggle. Also, lessen the length of the bat.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Does it say what he hit against that speed previous to the last couple of seasons? He can start earlier but needs good pitch recognition or he will continue to struggle. Also, lessen the length of the bat.

 

Nope. Not sure where you'd look something like that up. I think he has the tools to remain a productive hitter, but he appears committed to being a slugger. I wonder if ever decides to push for a trade to an AL team? Playing in the field has gone from questionable to disastrous for his health in a short time.

[brewerswinNLcentral]

YEP, I suggested if we were going to trade one of them, i wish it was thames, NOT aguilar,as i saw alot of people saying it would be no big deal if we had to DFA him bc his stas were so pedestrian and it was no loss...i said he got 16 homers and 52 rbis. extrapolated over double his 279 AB that is over 30 homers and 100 some rbis. I get the .246 against RHP but again, that is only part of his stats. i think he is at .324 against RHP this year. i dont think it is 'lucky". i think he is seeing the ball well. we ALL know he is going to regress some. he will go into a slumpo. everyone does, but i bet he hits. over .262 for the year and he he has potential for a ton of homers and rbis. when thames comes back his PT will diminish but i dont think his stats will regress anywhere near what luke and billhall think

[brewerswinNLcentral]

the biggest statements i was debating were that he ISNT a very talented hitter and he has been ridiculously lucky. I disagree heartily with both. you cant be an un-talented hitter and crush LHP, the way he has for a year and a half. and now he is crushing RHP too

[brewerswinNLcentral]

to even end up hitting .250 he would have to completely suck the next 3-4 months and i dont see that happening. i think he will hitting .280 to.290...i dont base that on anything but watching him play last year and how well he is seeing the ball this year

[brewerswinNLcentral]

ok xis, why should i care about 50 AB before he got to milwaukee over the almost 400 AB since he got to milwaukee.

which is more important. has anyone even stopped to think he is hitting better bc he is playing alot more than he ever has and is seeing the ball better. that makes sense does it. i dont EXPECT him to continue to hit. 335 with a .390 OBP..

.i expect him to finish around .280 or 290. how is that so un-realistic just bc he has a .262 average

[wallus]

Your posts are hard to read....

[brewerswinNLcentral]

luke. i will take the bait....what is wrong with what i am suggesting...a .280 to 290 average and 25-30 homers depending on how much he plays when thames gets back...i will be happy if finishes with similar stats to last year except with a higher batting average. he had 279 AB last year. i hope he gets at least 350 this year

[coolhandluke121]

luke. i will take the bait....what is wrong with what i am suggesting...

 

Nothing really wrong with it per se, but I don't think there's enough evidence to bet on the kind of outcomes you're suggesting. You act as though Aguilar has disproved everyone who ever doubted him. A couple great months with an unsustainable BABIP is insufficient to win over everyone considering his prior performance. I do think recent performance should be weighed a little more heavily, but you can't just dismiss 10 years of utter mediocrity so soon. Also, this is what decent 1B's should be doing. There are guys like Lind, Duda, and Reynolds who did this all season long on multiple occasions and still had trouble finding work this year.

 

If you could give me more specific, sustainable reasons why it might continue, I would be easier to persuade. For example, JJ's split change is a good, concrete explanation of why he's pitching so well despite such extensive struggles last year. Just saying Aguilar must be better now than he was before isn't as convincing. I'd be interested in what a great hitting coach would say about his approach right now, for example.

[brewerswinNLcentral]

i offer no proof but the eye test ,extended playing time and seeing the ball well. and we all know thames will hit most of the right handed pitching when he comes back. the only data i have is that he hit LHP astoundingly well last and this year, and this year he is even hitting RHP well... i think his splits are 2/3 RHP and 1/3 LHP.

.I think all 4 of his last homers are against RHP...Guys, i hope it isnt just me but he doesnt "look" like a .246 hitter against RHP this year does he....i dont see why saying he will hit .280 or .290 is so outlandish

[pacopete4]

Your posts are hard to read....

 

Seconded. I’ve just started skimming now because they hurt my eyes.

[brewerswinNLcentral]

one last thing. dont under-estimate adding yelich and cain and what that does to aguilars bottom line. that means a ton of baserunners ahead of him and shaw directly behind him. he is probably getting alot of tasty pitches to hit..i think this lineup is going to scorch the ball this summer, thames included, and hopefully braun

[Austin Tatious]

I’m very high on Aguilar. I think he’s a legit, well rounded hitter. I think he should be afforded the opportunity to get 500 AB’s and let’s see what he’s got. Thames can play some left and Aguilar can survive here and there at third against tough southpaws. They can make it work, and I think they will.

[homer]

 

ETA: Whatever mechanics are behind his increased medium contact rate would be interesting, though I'm not sure that's statistically significant at this point.

 

He'd be a good candidate for one of Jeff Sullivan's deep dives on Fangraphs.

[tmwiese55]

How much longer until they do something different with Bandy? Whoever they bring up just can't be worse than him can they?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Bandy is the biggest roster hole currently, and something needs to happen. They have internal options to replace him and improve their backup C position - or they could drastically upgrade their C position and make a trade for a better starting C option than Pina and shift Pina into that backup role. If that were to happen, I'd like to see something like a 60/40 split in starts between the new C and Pina, with either getting ample PH opportunities depending on game situations. As they are currently going with trying to limit an overmatched Bandy to 1 or maybe 2 starts a week, Pina will burn out.

[Roderick]

How much longer until they do something different with Bandy? Whoever they bring up just can't be worse than him can they?

 

I can live with an offensive black hole at backup catcher if they are elite defensively. I don't see that with Bandy. I suspect he has about 3 more starts this month to show them something.

[YelichPosse]

How much longer until they do something different with Bandy? Whoever they bring up just can't be worse than him can they?

 

I can live with an offensive black hole at backup catcher if they are elite defensively. I don't see that with Bandy. I suspect he has about 3 more starts this month to show them something.

 

Let us not forget we traded a defensive catcher for Bandy to upgrade the offensive end of the catching position......

 

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

How much longer until they do something different with Bandy? Whoever they bring up just can't be worse than him can they?

 

I can live with an offensive black hole at backup catcher if they are elite defensively. I don't see that with Bandy. I suspect he has about 3 more starts this month to show them something.

 

Let us not forget we traded a defensive catcher for Bandy to upgrade the offensive end of the catching position......

 

 

For the most part the trades Stearns has made have been solid to spectacular. This particular one, however, was horrible.

[YelichPosse]

Oh I completely agree with you.

 

Just this one... I never did see what Bandy would bring that would be better than an elite defender that Maldanado was and is..... Never saw much in him as an offensive prospect.

[bill hAll Star]

Was the Bandy/Maldy trade something along the lines of options? Like, the Brewers had a bit of depth at catcher in their rebuilding years and wanted to try several guys out whereas they were stuck with Maldonado on the MLB roster?

 

I don't remember the exact terms but it seemed to be a "we get slightly less value but some added flexibility" in the catching swap.

 

The Vogt thing hurts. I think the plan was Pina/Vogt 2018 and then see if Nottingham is ready or if Pina was really as legit as 2017 for your 2019 plan.

 

Now if they'd bring up Nottingham he probably has to be your starter because otherwise you want him developing in AAA getting regular work. So enter Jett Bandy who just exists because he's a warm body that can catch every 4th or so day while we wait.

[YelichPosse]

Was the Bandy/Maldy trade something along the lines of options? Like, the Brewers had a bit of depth at catcher in their rebuilding years and wanted to try several guys out whereas they were stuck with Maldonado on the MLB roster?

 

I don't remember the exact terms but it seemed to be a "we get slightly less value but some added flexibility" in the catching swap.

 

The Vogt thing hurts. I think the plan was Pina/Vogt 2018 and then see if Nottingham is ready or if Pina was really as legit as 2017 for your 2019 plan.

 

Now if they'd bring up Nottingham he probably has to be your starter because otherwise you want him developing in AAA getting regular work. So enter Jett Bandy who just exists because he's a warm body that can catch every 4th or so day while we wait.

 

 

I believe you are correct it was a flexibility thing. Because it wasn't a value thing.

 

And I have no problem with Nottingham earning his stripes at AAA. I'm happy he's been making strides. Exciting to see.

 

I do, however, wonder why Christian Bentancourt is not a better option than Bandy? Is it because he tried out pitching and failed, and now it's his first year back catching? He was always a higher end catching prospect coming up in Atlanta's system. Maybe the pitching switch fail was just what he needed to get his bat going to be a contributor. None the less.... I find it hard for him to come up and give us a lower average than Bandy... or possibly Pina for that matter. And I would think his time as a pitcher the last year and a half will only add defensive/game calling positives. Bandy's problem isn't even with the stick... it's just the way he sets up even.... he doesn't block the ball well.. doesn't throw well... I saw a full count pitch with 2 outs yesterday, where he was set up on the corner, and luckily the guy fouled it off or something because if it was a pitch to frame, he was standing up to throw (where?) and Joe West behind the plate most certainly wouldn't have given us a called third strike with him doing that. When you are a backup you need to do some of those little things well to balance out the garbage.

[pacopete4]

Martin Maldonado is making $4M this years. Bandy league minimum.

[KeithStone53151]

 

For the most part the trades Stearns has made have been solid to spectacular. This particular one, however, was horrible.

 

It's hard to say this trade was horrible. Maldonado posted 645 ops last year and has 684 this year. We took a chance on Bandy, played on upside and the options as noted. With Maldonado, we KNEW what we had. It just didn't work out. Even though Bandy is likely a bust, you can't call it a horrible trade as it's not like Maldonado is doing that much better. I'd be perfectly happy for Stearns to continue to trade fringe mlb "known quantity" guys for players with some upside. I don't think we have a single positional player aside from Bandy on the 25 man roster with less value than Maldonado would have had. Arcia is a defensive whiz, Perez and Saladino have been decent and have flexibility, Villar is turning it around and has massive(although increasingly unlikely to fulfill) upside still.

 

I'll also agree with other posters, I'm not sure why Bethancourt isn't taking Bandy's spot. Heck it'd be nice to have Susac around right now. Maybe we can print up a cardboard cutout of Bandy to take his AB's for him, his obp would probably increase.

[jerichoholicninja]

 

For the most part the trades Stearns has made have been solid to spectacular. This particular one, however, was horrible.

 

It's hard to say this trade was horrible. Maldonado posted 645 ops last year and has 684 this year. We took a chance on Bandy, played on upside and the options as noted. With Maldonado, we KNEW what we had. It just didn't work out. Even though Bandy is likely a bust, you can't call it a horrible trade as it's not like Maldonado is doing that much better. I'd be perfectly happy for Stearns to continue to trade fringe mlb "known quantity" guys for players with some upside. I don't think we have a single positional player aside from Bandy on the 25 man roster with less value than Maldonado would have had. Arcia is a defensive whiz, Perez and Saladino have been decent and have flexibility, Villar is turning it around and has massive(although increasingly unlikely to fulfill) upside still.

 

I'll also agree with other posters, I'm not sure why Bethancourt isn't taking Bandy's spot. Heck it'd be nice to have Susac around right now. Maybe we can print up a cardboard cutout of Bandy to take his AB's for him, his obp would probably increase.

 

Crappy catcher for crappy catcher? The trade is a push.