Offensive Woes

[MadScientist]

 

My sources were wrong. Braun to the 10-day DL with a corresponding move happening tomorrow.

 

Ugh. I mean, everyone pretty much knew it was coming, but still, ugh.

 

While there are no guarantees it would have ended any differently, there is a possibility that the team's mishandling of Braun and the 10-day DL could very well have cost them the game on Tuesday. There was no way Bandy should have ever been used as a pinch hitter, but he was forced into that role during Braun's latest "day-to-day" episode. Braun has never been a fast healer, so I think this was pretty clear roster mismanagement that proved costly.

 

 

This is exactly what I've been trying to explain. There is no such thing as Braun "healing" any injury. These are chronic problems with his back, calf, thumb, fill in the blank. He can go on the 10 day DL once or 20 times over the next three years and it doesn't change anything. The day he returns from the DL his back or whatever else could act up again.

 

You simply can't put him on the 10 day DL every time something is bothering him, because something will always be bothering him. It will always ALWAYS be a tough call on when to ride it out and when to bite the bullet and DL him.

 

But they tend to improve with rest and rehab. He gets to the point where he is a hopeless player, then goes on the DL and comes back and plays well for stretch. Then the nagging injuries crop up again. If Braun can only play half the time, but does so decently, that's still better than playing terribly through injures.

[FVBrewerFan]

No. Time, rest, rehab mean little to nothing at this point. He had all off-season yet was still late for ST. Then he had nagging injuries then already. Sat for a while, still had nagging injuries at the start of the season. 10 days means nothing. As soon as he swings, or runs, or pretty much anything it can, has, and will put him right back in the same situation again.

 

There really is no such thing in his case has "getting better" health-wise. This is the theory I hear all the time, just play him when he's healthy. It's not going to happen. Just live with the fact this roster will stand at 24 1/2 for much of the next three years. All we can hope is he has stretches where he hammers the ball and helps win some games. And maybe, just maybe, with any luck that will be in September/October.

[adambr2]

 

My sources were wrong. Braun to the 10-day DL with a corresponding move happening tomorrow.

 

Ugh. I mean, everyone pretty much knew it was coming, but still, ugh.

 

While there are no guarantees it would have ended any differently, there is a possibility that the team's mishandling of Braun and the 10-day DL could very well have cost them the game on Tuesday. There was no way Bandy should have ever been used as a pinch hitter, but he was forced into that role during Braun's latest "day-to-day" episode. Braun has never been a fast healer, so I think this was pretty clear roster mismanagement that proved costly.

 

 

This is exactly what I've been trying to explain. There is no such thing as Braun "healing" any injury. These are chronic problems with his back, calf, thumb, fill in the blank. He can go on the 10 day DL once or 20 times over the next three years and it doesn't change anything. The day he returns from the DL his back or whatever else could act up again.

 

You simply can't put him on the 10 day DL every time something is bothering him, because something will always be bothering him. It will always ALWAYS be a tough call on when to ride it out and when to bite the bullet and DL him.

 

He's going to need regular DL stints every couple months to at least recharge. Yeah you can't do it every time but I'd plan on doing it every 6 weeks or so for whatever, you can't just constantly play a man down.

 

And I disagree with being okay with waiting. Braun is not a great player, if you need to replace him with Phillips or Choi or Broxton for 10 days and he could have come back after 7 or 8 it is not a big deal and you're not really losing anything major. 3 days is already 30% of a DL stint and that is just inefficient to be willing to constantly go a man down that often. When Jett Bandy is your top option off the bench in a tight game you are poorly managing your day to day injuries.

 

Braun has a .409 OPS in May so far. If you want to attribute that to his back, that's totally fine but that supports the point further that trying to force him to play through everything is an exercise in futility. Just DL him and replace the roster spot. If you need to have him spend 10 on the DL every month as a result, so be it. He is doing no one besides the other team any good when he plays hurt.

[young guns]

Don't forget that nicked bat to cost Santana a walk to load the bases. I don't recall one like that before. High and tight and hit the bat instead of hands, sure all the time. But to have it get by and then tick the bat dangling behind the body, I don't recall seeing it.

Actually the bat hit the catchers glove. Never touched the ball.

 

Isn't waiting till tomorrow going add time to the minimum stay? Not that it matters how he's playing though.

[brewerswinNLcentral]

well we will see. i think what we are seeing in aguilar isnt a mirage..i think he is really a bonafide mlb hitter...i get the lefty righty part but he has done good so far

[brewerswinNLcentral]

well, he hit .265 in a full season last year with 16 homers and 52 rbis last year and is at .308 this year. what more do you want from a platoon player. and he wont be playing fulltime when thames comes back so who cares what he would have to hit if he played everyday.you guys seem to think he will just flounder...that hasnt been the case the last 2 years. even if thames doesnt come back, they wd prob bring up choi to bat from the other side anyway. aguilar has batted .290 the last month with a .340 OBP...I think that deserves praise, not cynicsm that he is juat an ordinary guy that will inevitably fall

[brewerswinNLcentral]

you guys are right about one thing. he is only a .246 career hitter...against RHP

luckily he gets to face LHP almost half the time. where he is a .286 hitter and .371 OBP

[bill hAll Star]

you guys are right about one thing. he is only a .246 career hitter...against RHP

luckily he gets to face LHP almost half the time. where he is a .286 hitter and .371 OBP

 

He has a small enough number of ABs against lefties that even that LHP number may go down just a bit given his lucky BABIP so far.

 

That said, I agree that he's a great righty platoon hitter either way. We were just saying that if he's exposed to a regular role, he begins to become more of a mediocre asset to the team.

[brewerswinNLcentral]

i dont know guys...he keeps proving he IS a talented hitter, but you guys can think he isnt. i DO..and with choi or thames platooning with, him i think he will do as good as last year, which was awesome

[brewerswinNLcentral]

i dont get the critiscm of aguilar. all he has done is make the team as a walk on and hit very well since day one. i just dont get it..i love the guy

[pacopete4]

i dont get the critiscm of aguilar. all he has done is make the team as a walk on and hit very well since day one. i just dont get it..i love the guy

 

Just because people might think he’ll come back to earth a bit doesn’t mean they don’t like him as a player. Just some good data that shows that he may continue doing what he is doing.

[brewerswinNLcentral]

yeah i am just waiting for him to come down to earth,,,lol..2 home runs a walk and a single..all against RHP. i still say it. he will come down gradually but the guy is a stud the last 2 years,,,oh his salary is $557,000..if you go by his stats he can play evwryday until thames comes back or have braun play against righties if he gets his groove back

[brewerswinNLcentral]

ok. show me some data THIS season that he isnt doing a great job..BTW, our brewers are 27-18 baby

[pacopete4]

ok. show me some data THIS season that he isnt doing a great job..BTW, our brewers are 27-18 baby

 

I’m not really sure why you’re taking a combative approach on this or anything for that matter.

[adambr2]

i dont get the critiscm of aguilar. all he has done is make the team as a walk on and hit very well since day one. i just dont get it..i love the guy

 

You know pretty much everyone loves Aguilar, right?

[brewerswinNLcentral]

no. i have been having an ongoing debate with bill hall and luke, they seem to think he is getting lucky and that he is a one dimensional hitter that cant hit righties, which he is solidly dis-proving. its ntr being combatative either. in march there was a deluge of people here saying trade aguilar for anything we can get,,,i kept saying i wish they could find a way to keep him and i am glad they didnt trade him...great move by stearns.

this guy aguilar is transforming into an offensive weapon before our very eyes..the whole team is playing well. villar is very hot

[JohnBriggs12]

For all you doubters out there, take the word of Keith Hernandez. Back in April when the Brewers were playing the Mets, Hernadez had high praise for Aguilar. Hernandez noted that Aguilar is not just a big strong guy who goes up there hacking and swinging and missing. He has a clue at the plate and thus in his opinion he's a very dangerous hitter.

[CheeseheadInQC]

you guys are right about one thing. he is only a .246 career hitter...against RHP

luckily he gets to face LHP almost half the time. where he is a .286 hitter and .371 OBP

 

The irony of this is, wasn't the concern when he came over that he had had reverse splits his last four or so minor league seasons and thus wasn't an ideal platoon partner for Thames?

[xisxisxis]

no. i have been having an ongoing debate with bill hall and luke, they seem to think he is getting lucky and that he is a one dimensional hitter that cant hit righties, which he is solidly dis-proving.

 

It isn't their opinion that Aguilar is "getting lucky" they are looking at stats, specifically BABIP, which is a metric that can be used to determine if performance swings that are dramatic are likely due to "luck". That metric indicates that Aguilar is likely due for a regression because by BABIP he has been "lucky". No opinion, just correct interpretation of the data. Does that mean he will hit like Arcia moving forward? No, but it is very likely that his production will not continue at the current pace. While Aguilar has shown improvement against RH hitters, most posters here realize that you can't make definitive statements based on a small number of at bats because it's most likely those numbers can be influenced by luck (bad and good). Of course, you are free to take whatever sample size you want, it just reduces your credibility to base conclusions on 80 Plate appearances this year and ignore the 200 PAs from last year.

 

in march there was a deluge of people here saying trade aguilar for anything we can get,,,i kept saying i wish they could find a way to keep him and i am glad they didnt trade him...great move by stearns.

 

I looked back at your posts from March and don't see any "wishes" that they could find a way to keep him. I see where you suggest trading Thames because 1) you want to save the $5M; and 2) you didn't like Thames RISP BA. Those don't sound like reasons you think Aguilar is great, but reasons you don't like Thames (who BTW, has outproduced Aguilar last year and was very good before going down this year).

 

this guy aguilar is transforming into an offensive weapon before our very eyes..the whole team is playing well. villar is very hot

 

Hyperbole aside, Jesus has clearly established that he should be the RH part of the 1B platoon when Thames returns (both have wRC+ of 155 which is great for the Brewers). Because of his continued contributions to the offense and because Braun has been in an extended slump (2017+2018) and his age decline may be so advanced that he isn't as valuable contributor to the offense as Aguilar (especially at the ~$18M difference in salary). I think we are all happy they kept Aguilar and as many pointed out a week or so ago, the offense was suffering from 3 extremely poor performances in the lineup and Santana struggling. And its no coincidence the offense has been much better recently as Pina and Villar have started to hit and Santana has improved.

 

 

For all you doubters out there, take the word of Keith Hernandez.

 

I think some of the doubters of Aguilar are too focused on his minor league career and expecting that to drive expectations of his ML performance. While on average that is the likely expectation from a player, there are players who have mediocre minor league careers and then have very productive major league careers (Phil Nevin comes to mind). It's rare, but it happens and maybe we found a player who just developed late and he will continue to hit much better in the majors than he showed in the minors. His approach at the plate has always been good (whether Keith Hernandez says so or not) and I see every reason to continue to give him opportunities to prove the averages wrong...

[brewerswinNLcentral]

whatever it is, i hope he retains it.

IMO, he was just another guy when we got him,

and almost instantly he "figured it out".. he had a great spring training in 2017, which earned him a roster spot, and

has been crushing LHP ever since, and show signs of getting better against RHP. I will say he doesnt look as comfortable fielding

1rst base as thames or braun, but i, for one can live wth that,

you know, it isnt a given that his numbers will drastically drop if he plays everyday.

some back up players see the ball better if they start to play every day.

even if he hits .280 this year with 20 homers or so...is good

[coolhandluke121]

I'll take the bait. He's been better than I expected and I'm glad for that. That doesn't make him nearly as good as you seem to be suggesting and it doesn't mean he's going to continue to being productive going forward.

 

His BABIP is still, astoundingly, over .380. The last 4 Brewer regulars to finish over .355 are Santana, Villar, Gerardo Parra, and Phony Plush. Before that, it was Braun's rookie year. That's right - even Braun, Fielder, Weeks, Hart, and Ramirez rarely manage much over .330. There's nothing about Aguilar's approach or hard contact rates that suggests this is even remotely sustainable, which means he is probably about 40-50 points over the AVG he will likely have going forward. His SLG will probably suffer even more regression.

 

Everybody is happy he's doing well, but let's not abandon the lessons learned from Villar's career year just because of momentary emotions after a big game. The longer this continues, the more reasonable it becomes to conclude that he's a late bloomer, but he still was a below average 1B in over 4,000 MiLB pa's, so it will take more than 2 good part-time seasons in his prime to turn me into a believer. He has established himself as a much better RHB 1B option than Braun, but that's not really hard to do and I think I made it perfectly clear that I would rather get rid of Braun than him if it were an option so it's not like being better than Braun proves me wrong there. I had some hopes for Braun at 1B but I'm glad they kept Jesus.

[MrTPlush]

Jesus Aguilar is what he is...similar to last years season stats. He isn’t replacement level, but he really isn’t a great starter either. His BABIP is stupidly high. Put that at a normal level and his offensive stats are somewhat above average. His walk rate is up slightly (hard to calculate such a small increase in a small sample size), but his K rate is down quite a bit. We will see where those go over the course of a season, but it is a good sign. There is some signs he could improve a little on last year, but not dramatically.

 

Yeah I think he could be a quality MLB hitter, but he plays a position where that isn’t a big accomplishment and his defense is pretty iffy.

[coolhandluke121]

Yea, I don't think it has anything to do with being late on fastballs. Braun's biggest weakness has always been swinging at pitches (especially sliders and change-ups) low and away. We're just seeing that more than ever now.

 

Did you see this:

 

http://insider.espn.com/blog/buster-olney/insider/post/_/id/18519/olney-hitters-who-cant-beat-the-heat-getting-left-behind

 

Braun is hitting .151 against 96+ mph fastballs since 2016. It's possible he's starting his swing a split-second sooner to keep up, and that's why he's having more trouble laying off bad pitches. Usually this is manifested in k% and bb% both going in the wrong direction, but Braun has incredible hand-eye coordination for making contact and appeared to acquire more patience (and less overconfidence) as he aged, mitigating the damage in 2016 and 2017. This looks like the year it's all coming unraveled though.

 

Incidentally, Cain's slight uptick in bb% and decrease in k% last year, combined with his incredible sb/cs ratio and sustained elite speed in the outfield, were probably big factors in the Brewers deciding to take a chance on him despite all the evidence that a contract like that for a 32-year-old is almost always a bad investment. The guy is somehow still in the middle of his physical prime, and the Brewers are looking like geniuses for signing him when hardly a single free agent is paying off for any other team.

[homer]

There's nothing about Aguilar's approach or hard contact rates that suggests this is even remotely sustainable, which means he is probably about 40-50 points over the AVG he will likely have going forward. His SLG will probably suffer even more regression.

.

 

I'm sure his stats will adjust going forward but there are some interesting things going on. Compared to last year his line drive % is up, his walk rate is up, his GB% is way down and his fly ball % is way up. His ISO (which takes singles out of the equation essentially) is up. His launch angle has increased significantly and his exit velocity is is up. His "soft" hits are way down, his "medium" hits are way up, and his "hard" hits are way down. So his BABIP does not appear to be inflated by seeing eye grounders but rather soft line drives I guess.

 

Taking all that with a grain of salt due to small samples and what not but I'd be comfortable in saying he won't regress to the point where he's not an .900 OPS player.

[coolhandluke121]

He does look good at the plate. That's hard to quantify and it's dangerous to rely on the eye test over small samples, but it counts for something. I'd feel a lot better if there was some explanation for why he was so pedestrian for so long and how he has fixed the issue. For example, Jeffress was terrible last year, but seems to have developed a wicked split change in a short time, which gives me more confidence in his sustained success.

 

ETA: Whatever mechanics are behind his increased medium contact rate would be interesting, though I'm not sure that's statistically significant at this point.