Offensive Woes

[coolhandluke121]

I dunno. The way Aguilar is going lately and what his splits ended up being last year and the fact that Choi is still an unknown in the majors makes me think you're inflating the difference between Braun and what we could also try on the roster.

 

This month, Aguilar is .240/.330/.435 basically since he got more of a full-time role from Thames being out and Braun also being hobbled. Aguilar even got a 4 game trip to Coors in there and didn't do much for his May numbers. He can't hit righties very well. Braun was exposed to more of them early in the year.

 

Aguilar basically crushed lefties and crappy RHP whereas Braun got a dose of more righties in April.

 

Aguilar has a .380 BABIP...still. That's not gonna stay.

 

Phillips, maybe. I don't know with him because he could come up and put up a .250/.340/.470 line with great defense or he could K 35% of the time and be a liability at the plate (not saying Braun isn't with his recent play). Also, given the injuries, Phillips not playing 1B makes it less plausible.

 

Yeah, I'm the biggest "Aguilar regression" guy here and I check his BABIP at least once a week. He's been making a fool out of me this year and I'm trying to figure it out. And I understand that Choi is somewhat of an unknown, but he certainly projects to have translatable hitting skills and he's in the minors not because he can't hit, but because he's nothing special compared to other 1B. Unfortunately, neither is Braun, and Choi's LHB would make more sense on the team with Thames hurt.

 

Phillips I have an irrational love for but I admit he's probably a Kirk Nieuwenhuis type. That said, you probably care more about defense in a back-up OF, and at least he and Choi and Aguilar are probably healthy so you're not playing with a 24.5 man roster. The Brewers can't afford to give the Cards or Cubs that kind of handicap.

[And That]

Would it make more sense to bring up Nottingham for the MN series? He could DH all three games, and have a better chance of generating some offense than Phillips or Choi. After that series you can send Nottingham down, and bring up Phillips or Choi. Or.... Tyrone Taylor?

Nottingham is on the AAA DL with an intercostal strain. Sounds like he won't be back in the immediate future.

[YelichPosse]

Would it make more sense to bring up Nottingham for the MN series? He could DH all three games, and have a better chance of generating some offense than Phillips or Choi. After that series you can send Nottingham down, and bring up Phillips or Choi. Or.... Tyrone Taylor?

Nottingham is on the AAA DL with an intercostal strain. Sounds like he won't be back in the immediate future.

 

 

Well... crap. There goes that idea. I'm all for Choi to alternate with Aguilar (I do believe his greatest usage is vs lefties, and as a PH, where he shines the most).

[FVBrewerFan]

Would it make more sense to bring up Nottingham for the MN series? He could DH all three games, and have a better chance of generating some offense than Phillips or Choi. After that series you can send Nottingham down, and bring up Phillips or Choi. Or.... Tyrone Taylor?

Nottingham is on the AAA DL with an intercostal strain. Sounds like he won't be back in the immediate future.

 

 

Well... crap. There goes that idea. I'm all for Choi to alternate with Aguilar (I do believe his greatest usage is vs lefties, and as a PH, where he shines the most).

 

Yea, I check out the MiLB forum every day and somehow missed that one! Then yea, I agree, give Choi some run and see what happens. And I'm still calling for Bethancourt to get a shot, we've seen enough of what Bandy can do. (Or to be precise, what he can't do.)

[tmwiese55]

Either option seems fine to me. I could see them wanting the OF D and DHing Santana or giving every OF a day at DH. And I could see bringing Choi up too. No real opinion either way, but I guess I lean towards the offensive route so I go Choi. FWIW-I believe all MN pitchers are righties. Although, I'm guessing they go with Phillips due to Perez having whatever injury going on and he'd be the only backup OF right now.

[monty57]

If the alternative is the indignity of being DFA'ed, he might give a few million back. I'm more concerned with using a roster spot on a first-place small market team with no top-40 players at this point. Can't afford to waste a precious spot. There are 5 obvious guys who are a much better use of a roster spot at this point, but you can also make a strong case that Choi, Phillips, and Perez are priorities over Braun, for various reasons, even when one of those 5 is hurt.

 

If the Brewers were to DFA Braun right now, he would be playing for another team very quickly and the Brewers would still have to pay the full amount of his contract. Brewer fans may be down on him right now, but there is no way that every MLB GM would pass on picking him up on a low-money deal. He seems to be pretty intelligent financially, so I doubt he'd accept less money in a "retirement buyout."

 

The Brewers' moves in the off-season said a lot about what they think of his long-term future with the team IMO, and I think he sees it. He looks like a defeated old man.

 

This offseason, the Brewers tried hard to trade Santana. It was only because the OF market dried up and Stearns couldn't get the offer he wanted for Santana that we ended up with the logjam. Then, they put Braun in the #3 hole, which doesn't point to them thinking he's washed up.

 

In aggregate, teams this offseason were less willing to sign older players to longer-term deals, which makes a heck of a lot of sense to me. Braun obviously is overpaid now and will be more overpaid as he continues to age, but it would take more than a slow start to the season to consider him completely washed up. For better or worse, Braun will likely continue to start about two out of every three games when healthy mixed between LF and 1B. If healthy enough to get sufficient PAs, I'd still guess that Braun will end the season with a mid-.700s OPS.

 

It is likely with Braun, as I would expect it would be with most 34-36 year olds on big deals, that he will eventually be a reserve player who will crawl, not run, into retirement in a few years. For now, I'd like to see him heal up, and would like to see them move him down in the lineup. Something like Cain, Yelich, Aguilar, Shaw, Santana/Braun would give our current best bats more of a chance to score some runs.

[sveumrules]

The thread is officially hijacked. Fun stuff.

 

 

Because the offensive woes have nothing to with Braun, I suppose? Even though he's literally below everyone else on the team in oWAR except Sogard and Arcia?

 

I wouldn't say they have nothing to do with Braun, just that his contributions (or lack thereof, I guess) have been overstated to this point.

 

The triple slash & WAR numbers are ugly, but they are also devoid of context. Braun has the 2nd most RBI on the team. He has the best numbers on the team with men on base/RISP & the highest clutch rating on the team so far. His Win Probability Added of 0.40 is 5th on the team behind only Cain, Shaw, Yelich & Thames.

 

While Braun has underperformed overall to this point, he has saved his hits for when they were most needed. I'm not suggesting he has some magical power to continue doing so into the future, but to cite him as a main reason for any perceived offensive woes seems unwarranted when you have guys like Sogard, Bandy, Arcia, Pina, Villar & even Domingo have negative WPAs (-2.72 combined) to accompany their underwhelming context free numbers.

[Cool Hand Lucroy]

The problem to me is the hitting 3rd part. Ryan Braun in the 6 spot is just fine and useful. Certaunly an inefficient use of money, but that is going to be the case no matter where he is for the next three seasons.

[adambr2]

The thread is officially hijacked. Fun stuff.

 

 

Because the offensive woes have nothing to with Braun, I suppose? Even though he's literally below everyone else on the team in oWAR except Sogard and Arcia?

 

I wouldn't say they have nothing to do with Braun, just that his contributions (or lack thereof, I guess) have been overstated to this point.

 

The triple slash & WAR numbers are ugly, but they are also devoid of context. Braun has the 2nd most RBI on the team. He has the best numbers on the team with men on base/RISP & the highest clutch rating on the team so far. His Win Probability Added of 0.40 is 5th on the team behind only Cain, Shaw, Yelich & Thames.

 

While Braun has underperformed overall to this point, he has saved his hits for when they were most needed. I'm not suggesting he has some magical power to continue doing so into the future, but to cite him as a main reason for any perceived offensive woes seems unwarranted when you have guys like Sogard, Bandy, Arcia, Pina, Villar & even Domingo have negative WPAs (-2.72 combined) to accompany their underwhelming context free numbers.

 

Seems fair, but also seems like a very luck oriented outcome and that concerns about his offensive production going forward seem very valuable.

 

Has a couple of very huge 9th inning HR this year, not denying that, but I would guess it's a lot more circumstantial than something we should expect him to continue.

[YelichPosse]

Either option seems fine to me. I could see them wanting the OF D and DHing Santana or giving every OF a day at DH. And I could see bringing Choi up too. No real opinion either way, but I guess I lean towards the offensive route so I go Choi. FWIW-I believe all MN pitchers are righties. Although, I'm guessing they go with Phillips due to Perez having whatever injury going on and he'd be the only backup OF right now.

 

Agreed.... BUT... one of these really NEEDS to be done!! The defensive route or the offensive route.. either way I would be happy with some move that helps the bench!

[pacopete4]

Braun woke up today and said the back is aye okay. He said to not worry guys, he'll be in the 3-spot this weekend.

[tmwiese55]

Braun woke up today and said the back is aye okay. He said to not worry guys, he'll be in the 3-spot this weekend.

 

Is there anything to this and him not going to DL or just making a joke? CBS doesn't mention anything, still says DL likely

[pacopete4]

Braun woke up today and said the back is aye okay. He said to not worry guys, he'll be in the 3-spot this weekend.

 

Is there anything to this and him not going to DL or just making a joke? CBS doesn't mention anything, still says DL likely

 

[sarcasm]Source BrewersWorld and HighHeat19[/sarcasm]

[brewerswinNLcentral]

the only reason aguilar is regressing a little latey is because NO ONE can keep hitting at a .360 clip all year. he is fine, i think he will hit .290 or so this year

[bill hAll Star]

the only reason aguilar is regressing a little latey is because NO ONE can keep hitting at a .360 clip all year. he is fine, i think he will hit .290 or so this year

 

His BABIP is .380 right now, which is 40-50 points higher than his career, which was probably a lucky season last year to be honest (and last year is basically his total career numbers).

 

If we have the luxury of a nearly full platoon he faces mostly lefties and some righties off the bench when days off are needed or pop off the bench is needed, he's a .260-.270 hitter.

 

If he's exposed to a lot of righties, he's a .240 hitter.

[adambr2]

the only reason aguilar is regressing a little latey is because NO ONE can keep hitting at a .360 clip all year. he is fine, i think he will hit .290 or so this year

 

His BABIP is .380 right now, which is 40-50 points higher than his career, which was probably a lucky season last year to be honest (and last year is basically his total career numbers).

 

If we have the luxury of a nearly full platoon he faces mostly lefties and some righties off the bench when days off are needed or pop off the bench is needed, he's a .260-.270 hitter.

 

If he's exposed to a lot of righties, he's a .240 hitter.

 

When Thames comes back, he doesn't have to be.

 

I've been skeptical of Aguilar but he killed lefties last year and continues to do so this year even more so. (.902 OPS last year, 1.032).

 

Incredible as it may sound -- there is no reason for Braun to continue to supplant Aguilar in the 1B platoon once Thames returns. That's obviously subject to change again, but as of right now, can't see any reason not to play Aguilar at 1st vs. any lefty.

[pacopete4]

I don't know if we should bank that much on Thames either. He is 31 years old, often injured and sure is streaky himself.

[bill hAll Star]

the only reason aguilar is regressing a little latey is because NO ONE can keep hitting at a .360 clip all year. he is fine, i think he will hit .290 or so this year

 

His BABIP is .380 right now, which is 40-50 points higher than his career, which was probably a lucky season last year to be honest (and last year is basically his total career numbers).

 

If we have the luxury of a nearly full platoon he faces mostly lefties and some righties off the bench when days off are needed or pop off the bench is needed, he's a .260-.270 hitter.

 

If he's exposed to a lot of righties, he's a .240 hitter.

 

When Thames comes back, he doesn't have to be.

 

I've been skeptical of Aguilar but he killed lefties last year and continues to do so this year even more so. (.902 OPS last year, 1.032).

 

Incredible as it may sound -- there is no reason for Braun to continue to supplant Aguilar in the 1B platoon once Thames returns. That's obviously subject to change again, but as of right now, can't see any reason not to play Aguilar at 1st vs. any lefty.

 

Yes...exactly as I said, Aguilar is fine as a righty platoon bat and pop off the bench. He's going to be a mediocre/subpar hitter (for a poor defensive 1B) if exposed to everyday work.

[coolhandluke121]

the only reason aguilar is regressing a little latey is because NO ONE can keep hitting at a .360 clip all year. he is fine, i think he will hit .290 or so this year

 

That's not the only reason at all. It's because his BABIP has been ridiculously high and because he's never been a very talented hitter. Now that Thames is hurt and he's been facing RHP's a lot more, his numbers are on an inevitable decline and will probably continue to sink until they level off around ~.800 if we're lucky.

[pacopete4]

Braun woke up today and said the back is aye okay. He said to not worry guys, he'll be in the 3-spot this weekend.

 

Is there anything to this and him not going to DL or just making a joke? CBS doesn't mention anything, still says DL likely

 

[sarcasm]Source BrewersWorld and HighHeat19[/sarcasm]

 

My sources were wrong. Braun to the 10-day DL with a corresponding move happening tomorrow.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

My sources were wrong. Braun to the 10-day DL with a corresponding move happening tomorrow.

 

Ugh. I mean, everyone pretty much knew it was coming, but still, ugh.

 

While there are no guarantees it would have ended any differently, there is a possibility that the team's mishandling of Braun and the 10-day DL could very well have cost them the game on Tuesday. There was no way Bandy should have ever been used as a pinch hitter, but he was forced into that role during Braun's latest "day-to-day" episode. Braun has never been a fast healer, so I think this was pretty clear roster mismanagement that proved costly.

[tmwiese55]

Don't forget that nicked bat to cost Santana a walk to load the bases. I don't recall one like that before. High and tight and hit the bat instead of hands, sure all the time. But to have it get by and then tick the bat dangling behind the body, I don't recall seeing it.

[FVBrewerFan]

 

My sources were wrong. Braun to the 10-day DL with a corresponding move happening tomorrow.

 

Ugh. I mean, everyone pretty much knew it was coming, but still, ugh.

 

While there are no guarantees it would have ended any differently, there is a possibility that the team's mishandling of Braun and the 10-day DL could very well have cost them the game on Tuesday. There was no way Bandy should have ever been used as a pinch hitter, but he was forced into that role during Braun's latest "day-to-day" episode. Braun has never been a fast healer, so I think this was pretty clear roster mismanagement that proved costly.

 

 

This is exactly what I've been trying to explain. There is no such thing as Braun "healing" any injury. These are chronic problems with his back, calf, thumb, fill in the blank. He can go on the 10 day DL once or 20 times over the next three years and it doesn't change anything. The day he returns from the DL his back or whatever else could act up again.

 

You simply can't put him on the 10 day DL every time something is bothering him, because something will always be bothering him. It will always ALWAYS be a tough call on when to ride it out and when to bite the bullet and DL him.

[pacopete4]

 

My sources were wrong. Braun to the 10-day DL with a corresponding move happening tomorrow.

 

Ugh. I mean, everyone pretty much knew it was coming, but still, ugh.

 

While there are no guarantees it would have ended any differently, there is a possibility that the team's mishandling of Braun and the 10-day DL could very well have cost them the game on Tuesday. There was no way Bandy should have ever been used as a pinch hitter, but he was forced into that role during Braun's latest "day-to-day" episode. Braun has never been a fast healer, so I think this was pretty clear roster mismanagement that proved costly.

 

I’m really okay with giving a guy a few days before DL time. Had it continued into this weekend then I would agree. Three games really isn’t that much considering it was reported that he was taking BP and such. Just not sure it was a clear cut DL. Feels like we are really grasping at straws to blame Counsell for losses.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

My sources were wrong. Braun to the 10-day DL with a corresponding move happening tomorrow.

 

Ugh. I mean, everyone pretty much knew it was coming, but still, ugh.

 

While there are no guarantees it would have ended any differently, there is a possibility that the team's mishandling of Braun and the 10-day DL could very well have cost them the game on Tuesday. There was no way Bandy should have ever been used as a pinch hitter, but he was forced into that role during Braun's latest "day-to-day" episode. Braun has never been a fast healer, so I think this was pretty clear roster mismanagement that proved costly.

 

I’m really okay with giving a guy a few days before DL time. Had it continued into this weekend then I would agree. Three games really isn’t that much considering it was reported that he was taking BP and such. Just not sure it was a clear cut DL. Feels like we are really grasping at straws to blame Counsell for losses.

 

Roster management isn't on Counsell. He was simply playing the hand he was dealt. I get that they likely wanted to avoid the DL with Braun to be able to DH him this weekend, but how many times now has a guy gotten hurt this year, only to sit in "day-to-day" purgatory before being DL'd? I'm just saying it would have been better seeing Choi take that pinch hit AB than Bandy.