Offensive Woes

[bork]

Sounds like Braun is headed for the DL, but not Perez.

[owbc]

Braun probably has something left in the tank, but the truth of the matter is that Braun doesn't belong in the full-time starting lineup anymore...at least not for a playoff contending Brewers team. We have better OF and better 1B (when Thames is healthy).

 

He brings more value off the bench, especially against lefties.

[brewerswinNLcentral]

i think he will play 110 games and hit around .260. nothing special..just average

[Jaylyn]

Sounds like Braun is headed for the DL, but not Perez.

 

Can we just start calling him "Mr. Glass"?

[adambr2]

Braun probably has something left in the tank, but the truth of the matter is that Braun doesn't belong in the full-time starting lineup anymore...at least not for a playoff contending Brewers team. We have better OF and better 1B (when Thames is healthy).

 

He brings more value off the bench, especially against lefties.

 

I totally agree with this. Unfortunately I think collectively we are still in a little bit of denial over the player that Braun is now. You could see that much in the general pre-season prognosis for Braun of people here ("he's still the best hitter on the team when healthy", "he should replace Thames as the every day 1B", "he will be batting 3rd and playing every day when healthy").

 

And hey, to be fair, it's not just the fans, the organization has been in denial about it too. After all, he has indeed batted 3rd and started generally every day when healthy.

 

It's a tough pill to swallow for a small market team to pay $20M a year for a high end bench bat, but trying to force him to be more and continuing to bat him 3rd like we're still in the midst of his glory years is only going to compound the problem.

 

No one can make a case that he deserves to play over Yelich and Cain. I can't make a good case that he deserves to play over Santana, who is at least young and has upside. I can't even honestly make a very strong case at this very moment that he should unseat Aguilar as part of a platoon with Thames when Thames returns.

 

The salary is what it is. Trying to get as much as we can out of him to get the most out of our money will not fix him.

[monty57]

The 2018 Brewers:

 

Santana, 112 AB, .665 OPS

Villar, 100 AB, .641 OPS

Perez, 66 AB, .599 OPS

Bandy, 51 AB, .562 OPS

Pina, 72 AB, .546 OPS

Arcia, 104 AB, .546 OPS

Sogard, 60 AB, .344 OPS

Phillips, 13 AB, .308 OPS

Nottingham, 5 AB, .286 OPS

Franklin, 2 AB, .000 OPS

 

I put this out one week ago. Today:

 

Santana, 132 AB, .674 OPS

Villar, 118 AB, .690 OPS

Perez, 84 AB, .672 OPS

Bandy, 58 AB, .509 OPS

Pina, 91 AB, .665 OPS

Arcia, 123 AB, .547 OPS

 

Over the last week, Villar has raised his OPS by .049, Perez by .073, and Pina by .119. Throw in Saladino posting a 1.417 OPS and you have two winning series against two playoff-caliber teams.

 

Cain, Yelich, Shaw, and Aguilar are having pretty good years. So was Thames before he got hurt. We just need a little life out of the rest of the guys and we've got a good team.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I'm against CHL's opinion for other reasons, because he makes some very strong assumptions as to how easy the trade was to make, but we'd be out of McCarthy and Puig's contracts this year pretty much. And McCarthy pitched fairly well last year.

 

Not sure what you mean. It WAS that easy. We had Puig, we had BMac, and we had a prospect. Most importantly, we had Braun off the books. We had it done and haggled over the 2nd prospect and let it all far apart in the 11th hour.

 

Exactly. I don't blame the Brewers for trying to get more, but they should have been going into it with the attitude that they would absolutely accept Puig and McCarthy if they had any concerns that the deal might fall through. They looked a gift horse in the mouth and it's looking like a huge mistake. The only very strong assumptions on display were about Braun's future performance and how his salary might affect the team.

 

And it's not just the fact that they made a mistake (they'll make lots of those), it's the total lack of sound principles in their decision-making. Waiving Gennett was a mistake but a forgivable one, because they used sound principles and just guessed wrong. But keeping Braun relied totally on hoping that a player with his age and injury history would be anything but a huge liability at his salary, which was a terrible gamble considering he was less than a year away from earning his 10/5 rights and when the trade market was obviously very limited to begin with.

 

This is about wishful thinking, foolish Braun nostalgia, and fiscal irresponsibility. Any other nuances of the deal are relevant, but are footnotes by comparison. Is it time to forget it and move on? Maybe, but don't dismiss the likelihood of the same mental blocks preventing the Brewers from making the right decisions with regard to Braun moving forward, up to and including keeping him on the DL or negotiating a retirement instead of continuing to trot him out their in lieu of better options in the thick of a pennant race. It's important to revisit the thought process that went into keeping him and scrutinize it thoroughly for that reason alone.

[MrTPlush]

Changing the length of Braun’s bat or where he stands in the box will do absolutely nothing. All you will do is transfer the problem to something else. Stand closer to get the outside pitch? Time to get busted inside (something Braun struggles with already). Shorten the bat? Time to strikeout on even more outside pitches.

[pacopete4]

The thread is officially hijacked. Fun stuff.

 

[tmwiese55]

At least they're going the DL route and not trying to force him to play hurt. He 'should' be able to contribute just fine if healthy but there's no need to play him hurt with the depth at OF on the team now. If he's hurt and it's affecting him, just go on the DL and play the other guys. 100 healthy games is better than 135 with 40+ of them played hurt. This is even more true once Thames is back.

[tmwiese55]

The 2018 Brewers:

 

Santana, 112 AB, .665 OPS

Villar, 100 AB, .641 OPS

Perez, 66 AB, .599 OPS

Bandy, 51 AB, .562 OPS

Pina, 72 AB, .546 OPS

Arcia, 104 AB, .546 OPS

Sogard, 60 AB, .344 OPS

Phillips, 13 AB, .308 OPS

Nottingham, 5 AB, .286 OPS

Franklin, 2 AB, .000 OPS

 

I put this out one week ago. Today:

 

Santana, 132 AB, .674 OPS

Villar, 118 AB, .690 OPS

Perez, 84 AB, .672 OPS

Bandy, 58 AB, .509 OPS

Pina, 91 AB, .665 OPS

Arcia, 123 AB, .547 OPS

 

Over the last week, Villar has raised his OPS by .049, Perez by .073, and Pina by .119. Throw in Saladino posting a 1.417 OPS and you have two winning series against two playoff-caliber teams.

 

Cain, Yelich, Shaw, and Aguilar are having pretty good years. So was Thames before he got hurt. We just need a little life out of the rest of the guys and we've got a good team.

 

Great post, thanks. Goes with one point I've brought up a few times. Those secondary players going from sub .200 terrible just up to mediocre will help a lot. Hopefully it keeps happening.

[coolhandluke121]

The thread is officially hijacked. Fun stuff.

 

 

Because the offensive woes have nothing to with Braun, I suppose? Even though he's literally below everyone else on the team in oWAR except Sogard and Arcia?

[pacopete4]

The thread is officially hijacked. Fun stuff.

 

 

Because the offensive woes have nothing to with Braun, I suppose? Even though he's literally below everyone else on the team in oWAR except Sogard and Arcia?

 

Bantering back and forth about a trade that didn't happen two years ago is flat out annoying. It is what it is... move on. Getting hung up on it now is pretty silly to me.

 

But discussing Braun as a part of the offensive woes is perfectly fine and is what the thread was all about. The rest is a bunch of trash littering this thread because a couple posters are ticked they didn't get their way a couple of years ago.

[YelichPosse]

Saladino is playing above his head now but that's what you need over the course of a year, to cover up the Braun slumps/injuries.

 

Villar and Arcia have had some really good at bats lately, and it's nice to see. Sure Villar now is sometimes taking TOO many pitches but he's actively trying to change his approach. And Arcia is going up the middle a lot, which means he looks close to breaking out.

 

Pina finally has turned it on.

 

Now my biggest gripe is not DL'ing Braun when at this point any problem he has had is literally a week thing. So what's an extra 3 days... instead of having JET BANDY the first option off the bench... bring up Phillips and have a super plus D outfield and Santana DH this weekend. ORRRRR Choi and have him DH or play first to spell Jesus so he can get a breather and stay productive. Same thing with Perez really, if these guys are going to miss 3-7 games anyhow, why not use the 10 day DL and bring up guys who can play?

 

And can we agree that at this point the biggest offensive issue (and I honestly do not believe he adds much D value or game calling value) is Bandy. Can we let Nottingham backup Pina at this point?

[coolhandluke121]

The thread is officially hijacked. Fun stuff.

 

 

Because the offensive woes have nothing to with Braun, I suppose? Even though he's literally below everyone else on the team in oWAR except Sogard and Arcia?

 

Bantering back and forth about a trade that didn't happen two years ago is flat out annoying. It is what it is... move on. Getting hung up on it now is pretty silly to me.

 

But discussing Braun as a part of the offensive woes is perfectly fine and is what the thread was all about. The rest is a bunch of trash littering this thread because a couple posters are ticked they didn't get their way a couple of years ago.

 

LOL, okay. As if all the Braun fanboy-ism we've been subjected to all these years isn't trash, too.

[tmwiese55]

Yes, there is no need to give Bandy another month or two. It's obvious, give someone else a chance or find this year's Vogt pickup.

[FVBrewerFan]

Would it make more sense to bring up Nottingham for the MN series? He could DH all three games, and have a better chance of generating some offense than Phillips or Choi. After that series you can send Nottingham down, and bring up Phillips or Choi. Or.... Tyrone Taylor?

[bill hAll Star]

 

I'm against CHL's opinion for other reasons, because he makes some very strong assumptions as to how easy the trade was to make, but we'd be out of McCarthy and Puig's contracts this year pretty much. And McCarthy pitched fairly well last year.

 

Not sure what you mean. It WAS that easy. We had Puig, we had BMac, and we had a prospect. Most importantly, we had Braun off the books. We had it done and haggled over the 2nd prospect and let it all far apart in the 11th hour.

 

Exactly. I don't blame the Brewers for trying to get more, but they should have been going into it with the attitude that they would absolutely accept Puig and McCarthy if they had any concerns that the deal might fall through. They looked a gift horse in the mouth and it's looking like a huge mistake. The only very strong assumptions on display were about Braun's future performance and how his salary might affect the team.

 

And it's not just the fact that they made a mistake (they'll make lots of those), it's the total lack of sound principles in their decision-making. Waiving Gennett was a mistake but a forgivable one, because they used sound principles and just guessed wrong. But keeping Braun relied totally on hoping that a player with his age and injury history would be anything but a huge liability at his salary, which was a terrible gamble considering he was less than a year away from earning his 10/5 rights and when the trade market was obviously very limited to begin with.

 

This is about wishful thinking, foolish Braun nostalgia, and fiscal irresponsibility. Any other nuances of the deal are relevant, but are footnotes by comparison. Is it time to forget it and move on? Maybe, but don't dismiss the likelihood of the same mental blocks preventing the Brewers from making the right decisions with regard to Braun moving forward, up to and including keeping him on the DL or negotiating a retirement instead of continuing to trot him out their in lieu of better options in the thick of a pennant race. It's important to revisit the thought process that went into keeping him and scrutinize it thoroughly for that reason alone.

 

I'm not sure how you "negotiate retirement" with a guy that just has to pretend to try to play baseball for 2 more years and he will collect $50+ million dollars. I guess you could try to tell him that he can move to the front office at the cost of giving $5 million back or something, but that seems fairly rare.

 

Braun left a little bit of money on the table signing early the first time so he probably wants to make it all back. He does also seem like a guy that wants to just retire early in Milwaukee or LA and call it a day sometimes, so I guess some weird retirement has a 1% chance of happening.

 

In terms of the trade, we don't know if the Dodgers also played a little bit of chicken or that maybe Stearns was pretty certain it could happen in the offseason. I won't debate it much more, though, you're probably right that they could've just done it for Puig and McCarthy. We'll never know, all we have is a report that it was haggling over the prospect.

 

They've had several other players that they held on to longer and got a better deal with. They've won some and lost some in holding out and making moves. I agree that in principle you should trade away the guy before his contract goes bad at age 34 but a situation like this may not come up again for a long time. Cain may qualify in a few years, but it's rare that a team comes in offering something like the McCarthy/Puig package.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I'm not sure how you "negotiate retirement" with a guy that just has to pretend to try to play baseball for 2 more years and he will collect $50+ million dollars.

 

If the alternative is the indignity of being DFA'ed, he might give a few million back. I'm more concerned with using a roster spot on a first-place small market team with no top-40 players at this point. Can't afford to waste a precious spot. There are 5 obvious guys who are a much better use of a roster spot at this point, but you can also make a strong case that Choi, Phillips, and Perez are priorities over Braun, for various reasons, even when one of those 5 is hurt.

 

ETA: Braun did look like a guy who sees the writing on the wall in that video where he talked about being willing to play 1B or 2B. Watch it again and look at his sagging eyes and his forced smile, where he normally has a confident, stoic poker face. The Brewers' moves in the off-season said a lot about what they think of his long-term future with the team IMO, and I think he sees it. He looks like a defeated old man.

[homer]

 

I'm not sure how you "negotiate retirement" with a guy that just has to pretend to try to play baseball for 2 more years and he will collect $50+ million dollars.

 

If the alternative is the indignity of being DFA'ed, he might give a few million back. I'm more concerned with using a roster spot on a first-place small market team with no top-40 players at this point. Can't afford to waste a precious spot. There are 5 obvious guys who are a much better use of a roster spot at this point, but you can also make a strong case that Choi, Phillips, and Perez are priorities over Braun, for various reasons, even when one of those 5 is hurt.

 

ETA: Braun did look like a guy who sees the writing on the wall in that video where he talked about being willing to play 1B or 2B. Watch it again and look at his sagging eyes and his forced smile, where he normally has a confident, stoic poker face. The Brewers' moves in the off-season said a lot about what they think of his long-term future with the team IMO, and I think he sees it. He looks like a defeated old man.

 

 

Well they tried to trade him so obviously he's not part of the long range plans. Plus he's 34.

[FVBrewerFan]

The other thing is, do we know for a fact that trade would have been accepted by the Dodgers? I have my doubts. Yes, there were several sources that named the same players but these rumors are easily spread when started by even one person. Whether it be Braun's agent, someone in the front office of either team, whatever.

 

Lots of trades are discussed, and some even get pretty serious. But again, I'm still not convinced this was a done deal if the Brewers agreed to Puig/McCarthy.

[tmwiese55]

Obviously things don't look good right now, but i do think some of this is seriously jumping to conclusions over a very small sample. The injury crap is still there and will always be there of course. But the talk like he just can't play is probably a bit of a rush to judgment. Pump the brakes a little bit. Glance around the league and look at some proven player's stats. Of course this 'could' the beginning of the end but it's just too soon and overreaction to be talking like this. Take his DL stint, then he'll be back and let's see how the numbers look at the ASB. As I said before though I think, if when he's back the other top guys are still hitting why not just put him in the 6 spot.

 

Also, good point by whoever brought up the low salary early on. he really only started getting paid big money (relatively speaking of course) in 2016. Of course with the PED stuff we'll have the take that he kinda stole some of this money to begin with, but from his perspective he's supposed to be overpaid in these years because he took less early to help them field winning teams then. One thing I thought of,as the team tries to compete the next few years would be negotiating more deferred for him than he already has, maybe he'd do that to help the team a bit.

[coolhandluke121]

Obviously things don't look good right now, but i do think some of this is seriously jumping to conclusions over a very small sample. The injury crap is still there and will always be there of course. But the talk like he just can't play is probably a bit of a rush to judgment a bit. Pump the brakes a little bit. Glance around the league and look at some proven player's stats. Of course this 'could' the beginning of the end but it's just too soon and overreaction to be talking this. Take his DL sting, then he'll be back and let's see how the numbers look at the ASB. As I said before though I think, if when he's back the other top guys are still hitting why not just put him in the 6 spot.

 

 

I don't disagree that he'll still have some good stretches, but to me that's part of the problem. If he just played like this all year, they could DFA him and play a better player regularly. But his occasional good stretches just keep toying with our emotions and when it's all said and done, he'll probably average out to a subpar bat at 1B/corner OF, just as you'd predict based on his age and injury history. Then you will be stuck wondering what could have been if they had just given all those pa's to a "career year" candidate in his healthy prime, like Aguilar or Choi. Just look at how his one good stretch last summer had people saying he's still the best hitter on the team "by far".

 

Basically it would be a repeat of his fluke bounce-back in 2016 on a smaller scale, and played on repeat. I want no part of that roller-coaster.

[bill hAll Star]

Obviously things don't look good right now, but i do think some of this is seriously jumping to conclusions over a very small sample. The injury crap is still there and will always be there of course. But the talk like he just can't play is probably a bit of a rush to judgment a bit. Pump the brakes a little bit. Glance around the league and look at some proven player's stats. Of course this 'could' the beginning of the end but it's just too soon and overreaction to be talking this. Take his DL sting, then he'll be back and let's see how the numbers look at the ASB. As I said before though I think, if when he's back the other top guys are still hitting why not just put him in the 6 spot.

 

 

I don't disagree that he'll still have some good stretches, but to me that's part of the problem. If he just played like this all year, they could DFA him and play a better player regularly. But his occasional good stretches just keep toying with our emotions and when it's all said and done, he'll probably average out to a subpar bat at 1B/corner OF, just as you'd predict based on his age and injury history. Then you will be stuck wondering what could have been if they had just given all those pa's to a "career year" candidate in his healthy prime, like Aguilar or Choi.

 

Basically it would be a repeat of his fluke bounce-back in 2016 on a smaller scale, and played on repeat.

 

I dunno. The way Aguilar is going lately and what his splits ended up being last year and the fact that Choi is still an unknown in the majors makes me think you're inflating the difference between Braun and what we could also try on the roster.

 

This month, Aguilar is .240/.330/.435 basically since he got more of a full-time role from Thames being out and Braun also being hobbled. Aguilar even got a 4 game trip to Coors in there and didn't do much for his May numbers. He can't hit righties very well. Braun was exposed to more of them early in the year.

 

Aguilar basically crushed lefties and crappy RHP whereas Braun got a dose of more righties in April.

 

Aguilar has a .380 BABIP...still. That's not gonna stay.

 

Phillips, maybe. I don't know with him because he could come up and put up a .250/.340/.470 line with great defense or he could K 35% of the time and be a liability at the plate (not saying Braun isn't with his recent play). Also, given the injuries, Phillips not playing 1B makes it less plausible.

[tmwiese55]

Obviously things don't look good right now, but i do think some of this is seriously jumping to conclusions over a very small sample. The injury crap is still there and will always be there of course. But the talk like he just can't play is probably a bit of a rush to judgment a bit. Pump the brakes a little bit. Glance around the league and look at some proven player's stats. Of course this 'could' the beginning of the end but it's just too soon and overreaction to be talking this. Take his DL sting, then he'll be back and let's see how the numbers look at the ASB. As I said before though I think, if when he's back the other top guys are still hitting why not just put him in the 6 spot.

 

 

I don't disagree that he'll still have some good stretches, but to me that's part of the problem. If he just played like this all year, they could DFA him and play a better player regularly. But his occasional good stretches just keep toying with our emotions and when it's all said and done, he'll probably average out to a subpar bat at 1B/corner OF, just as you'd predict based on his age and injury history. Then you will be stuck wondering what could have been if they had just given all those pa's to a "career year" candidate in his healthy prime, like Aguilar or Choi. Just look at how his one good stretch last summer had people saying he's still the best hitter on the team "by far".

 

Basically it would be a repeat of his fluke bounce-back in 2016 on a smaller scale, and played on repeat. I want no part of that roller-coaster.

 

yea, I suppose it doesn't allow for an easy decision. But, those good stretches would be helping the team win. The money is spent anyway, might as well get something good out of it. But if injured and you have better options just DL it. Shoot the thumb up again, come back and contribute. Rinse/repeat. Yea just a tough spot to be in if he has flashes but still ends up 260/300 slash, if he plays 100-120 games and puts up 275/340 it's still helping the team. We'll see how the month or two after the DL stint go. As said, Jesus is going to regress and someone else will get hurt. Hopefully he can be ok and fill in those gaps.