Offensive Woes

[tmwiese55]

Considering Braun's last 10 days or so maybe it wouldn't be the worst time to toss him on the 10 day and recharge everything. The other 3 OFs are healthy right now and hitting well, and Jesus is raking. You have one off day this week too. It was good to see them stats posted last night about still hitting the ball hard which was true last year too. So still confident he'll end up being a contributing hitter this year and end up in the 275/335 type areas by end of year. Of course not what he was in the past, but still a contributing player. And it would officially take him out of the discussion of best hitter on the team. Prior to the year I'd have guessed him, Yelich, Cain would be in the same ballpark. those guys with higher obp but him more power numbers, and with his pedigree I'd have taken him at crunch time game on the line. Think positive though, in spite of his bad year so far he's been like the only guy doing with RISP and has won several games with clutch hits.

[YelichPosse]

Considering Braun last 10 days or so maybe it wouldn't be the worst time to toss him on the 10 day and recharge everything. The other 3 OFs are healthy right now and hitting well, and Jesus is raking. You have one off day this week too. It was good to see them stats posted last night about still hitting the ball hard which was true last year too. So still confident he'll end up being a contributing hitter this year and end up in the 275/335 type areas by end of year. Of course not what he was in the past, but still a contributing player. And it would officially take him out of the discussion of best hitter on the team. Prior to the year I'd have guess him, Yelich, Cain would be in the same ballpark. those guys with higher obp but him more power numbers, and with his pedigree I'd have taken him at crunch time game on the line. Think positive though, in spite of his bad year so far he's been like the only guy doing with RISP and has won several games with clutch hits.

 

 

I'd love to see this, and think it would be a great idea. Bring Choi up to give Jesus a breather vs a righty and have a good lefty bat off the bench.

[coolhandluke121]

 

I'd love to see this, and think it would be a great idea. Bring Choi up to give Jesus a breather vs a righty and have a good lefty bat off the bench.

 

No doubt. It's a pretty obvious move. If Braun were a little younger I'd say give him more time, but you can't afford to let this continue in hopes of Braun being a good hitter again soon. There's no guarantee he will be, and even if he is, will he be better than Aguilar, Thames, Yelich, Cain, or Santana? I doubt it.

[coolhandluke121]

It was me Luke. I mentioned the long bat and about being glad that the Brewers allow time before making drastic adjustments. The long bat at his age is a bit silly. Especially when you consider the back and thumb issues he’s had in his career. Shorten it up and let that hand-eye take over. A guy that has a lifetime average above .300 in the majors should be able to make this adjustment. It could really prolong his career as being a good hitter. Not sure Darnell Coles is the man for this job though.

 

I agree about Coles. At some point you have to look at the preponderance of evidence and say it's not just normal fluctuation and luck. Same goes for Derek Johnson, but in a good way of course.

 

That was a really good catch on Braun's bat. It completely slipped everyone else's observation. It really jives with other things we've observed, like his higher k% and the notion that he's starting his swing a little earlier. He's trying to preserve his slugging at the expense of other concerns, and that's not the right approach. He's always been a guy who looked for slugging over OBP, and he would have been even better with a more patient approach. We forgave him because he was so good anyway, but he can't get away with bad habits anymore.

 

He does have great ability to make contact and he should be transitioning to a singles and doubles guy. I think Lucroy's approach from the year he led the league in doubles would be ideal for Braun. Just wait for your pitch and don't swing for the fences so much.

[sveumrules]

It's only a quarter of a season so I'm definitely willing to give Braun some more time, even though he has looked completely lost in some PAs.

 

I know it's also not really instructive to take a small sample & parse it down into smaller samples, but Braun's splits so far this season are pretty interesting...

 

Bases Empty (84 PA) 177/226/291

Men On Base (54 PA) 298/333/617

RISP (33 PA) 321/333/821

 

His RISP numbers are the best on the team & his Men On Base numbers are 2nd behind only Thames (1.488 OPS in 28 PAs with Men On Base) to this point.

 

Of course it doesn't have any predictive value moving forward, but these things have happened & despite Braun's ugly overall line he has definitely won us some games so far.

[tmwiese55]

He's going to get more time, there's no doubt about that. Those advanced stats show why he'll get more leeway.

 

But as we said going into the year, this depth should allow them to toss Braun on the DL whenever something is acting up and not worry about it, rather than forcing through it like last year because you'd be playing some stiff out there. This seems like the right time to follow through on that idea and do it. Back flared up, has had calf issues. Other guys are healthy and he's been slumping. Seems perfect timing to me. When he's back, he'll be right back into the top of the order and given several more weeks.

 

ETA: If things stay the same for a few more weeks and all the other main guys start/keep hitting like they all kind of are, then yea you move him down to 6th and based on how Braun has handled himself of late I really don't think he'll make a fuss about it. You don't hear anything negative on him, you see him talking to young guys, congratulating them, everything you kind of look at from afar since we have no access.

[coolhandluke121]

I'll give Braun a little bit longer before I write him off as a sub .800 hitter, but people are definitely making some good points, and though it's still somewhat early, we're at a point that saying "it's early" is starting to wear thin a bit.

 

Well he's at .681 at this point, so even .800 would be terrific. Also, it's a "bad" .681 because of the parks he's played in, because he's a below average defender at every position he plays, because it's fair to expect much more offense from his positions, and because OPS undervalues OBP and he has a dramatic split in favor of SLG in his OPS. Santana and Villar are both ~50 points higher in OBP despite having a very similar OPS.

[FVBrewerFan]

He's going to get more time, there's no doubt about that. Those advanced stats show why he'll get more leeway.

 

But as we said going into the year, this depth should allow them to toss Braun on the DL whenever something is acting up and not worry about it, rather than forcing through it like last year because you'd be playing some stiff out there. This seems like the right time to follow through on that idea and do it. Back flared up, has had calf issues. Other guys are healthy and he's been slumping. Seems perfect timing to me. When he's back, he'll be right back into the top of the order and given several more weeks.

 

I agree for the most part, but there is one flaw in this plan. Braun isn't the typical injured player where he goes on the 10 day (or two) gets healthy then comes back and contributes. Braun will never be healthy. He will always be day to day for the next three years.

 

Point being, you can put him on the 10 day, activate him, and he can and will have something flare up that same day or the next. This isn't theory anymore, this is where Braun is at this point. You DL him, bring him back, and you're right back where you started.

[adambr2]

I'll give Braun a little bit longer before I write him off as a sub .800 hitter, but people are definitely making some good points, and though it's still somewhat early, we're at a point that saying "it's early" is starting to wear thin a bit.

 

Well he's at .681 at this point, so even .800 would be terrific. Also, it's a "bad" .681 because of the parks he's played in, because he's a below average defender at every position he plays, because it's fair to expect much more offense from his positions, and because OPS undervalues OBP and he has a dramatic split in favor of SLG in his OPS. Santana and Villar are both ~50 points higher in OBP despite having a very similar OPS.

 

Also the 'bad luck' story on Braun is kind of overblown. Yes, he's technically been unlucky but to a greater extent I think people look for any reason to look for hope in his performance. Among regular players, Pina, Shaw, Thames, Aguilar, and Yelich have all been 'unluckier.'

 

 

https://www.brewcrewball.com/2018/5/10/17326218/the-milwaukee-brewers-offense-probably-isnt-this-bad

[KeithStone53151]

Considering Braun's last 10 days or so maybe it wouldn't be the worst time to toss him on the 10 day and recharge everything. The other 3 OFs are healthy right now and hitting well, and Jesus is raking. You have one off day this week too. It was good to see them stats posted last night about still hitting the ball hard which was true last year too. So still confident he'll end up being a contributing hitter this year and end up in the 275/335 type areas by end of year. Of course not what he was in the past, but still a contributing player. And it would officially take him out of the discussion of best hitter on the team. Prior to the year I'd have guessed him, Yelich, Cain would be in the same ballpark. those guys with higher obp but him more power numbers, and with his pedigree I'd have taken him at crunch time game on the line. Think positive though, in spite of his bad year so far he's been like the only guy doing with RISP and has won several games with clutch hits.

 

I think the concerns on Braun are a bit overblown. I do agree a short DL stint is a reasonable idea, I'm in favor of this for most players as very often in sports...an average guy at 100% is better than a star at 90%. That said, I think both the pro-braun and anti-braun sides on the season have decent argument. Braun's definitely having issues with his approach...and the eye test says he doesn't look good at the plate. That said, metrics pretty much unanimously say he's bound for improvement. His BABIP is 250, only 28 points below his batting average of 228. His BB rate is down a bit and k rate is up a bit. His contact rate is noticably down, especially on pitches outside the strike zone.

 

I think a mindset change is needed. I feel like he's trying to hit everything too hard right now and is pressing. He should probably start with an opposite field approach and build from there, and he should probably generally start taking a few more pitches.

[coolhandluke121]

 

Also the 'bad luck' story on Braun is kind of overblown. Yes, he's technically been unlucky but to a greater extent I think people look for any reason to look for hope in his performance. Among regular players, Pina, Shaw, Thames, Aguilar, and Yelich have all been 'unluckier.'

 

 

 

I believe that. The "bad luck" narrative is devoid of context. His hard contact rates are at a career low, and hard contact is just a percentage of contact so it doesn't take all the k's into account. A guy like Braun, Pujols, or A-Rod can continue to hit the ball hard when they make contact, but in no way is that a sign that they're going to be good hitters again.

[istanbultaye]

So, regarding Braun, he started off on a seemingly career low cold streak to start the season, sitting at .176/.218/.373 on 4/16. Then he had a 10 day hot streak that shot him up to .275/.310/.525 on 4/26. Now he's been cold again since and has dropped to the aforementioned .222/.268/.413 line as mentioned in prior posts. Long story short, he's been rather cold for basically 5+ weeks out of the 7 weeks we are into the season. It's definitely not a good sign.

 

All of the advanced metrics mentioned really are supporting the theory of some aging, so far this year, with him having good LD%/exit velocity, when he actually makes contact, but making a lot less contact overall. I'm still on the side that he will get it going, but there is definitely a lot of signs indicating things will proceed along the naysayers predicted path right now.

[brwrsfan]

I haven't posted it on here, but my dad has been yelling about Braun's bat for years. It's one of the biggest I've ever seen and it has to be having an impact on his swing speed and ability to catchup on fastballs.

 

Bat aside, his pitch selection has also been pretty awful this year, certainly not helping.

[pacopete4]

Long bat = thinks he can hit balls six inches off the plate = swinging at bad pitches.

 

At least that’s what I’m going with.

[FVBrewerFan]

Long bat = thinks he can hit balls six inches off the plate = swinging at bad pitches.

 

At least that’s what I’m going with.

 

I think he's actually said that before many years ago, that it helps him cover the outside corner. Yea, I don't think it has anything to do with being late on fastballs. Braun's biggest weakness has always been swinging at pitches (especially sliders and change-ups) low and away. We're just seeing that more than ever now.

[Ennder]

When you look at Braun's deeper peripherals he is in a 4 year pattern of decline at this point. He is not the same player he was even 2 years ago. Injuries have really derailed his career.

[danzig6767]

When you look at Braun's deeper peripherals he is in a 4 year pattern of decline at this point. He is not the same player he was even 2 years ago. Injuries have really derailed his career.

Yea, and something always seems sore on him, whether it's is back, calf, wrist, neck, oblique, and i'm likely to have missed other body parts.

 

For whatever reason some professional athletes age better than others health wise and Braun is now both mediocre and unreliable to consistently play. Gonna be lighting 36 million on fire for the last two years of his deal.

[tmwiese55]

Besides the bat. Another odd or different thing for Braun pretty much his whole career is how far he stands off the plate. Almost everyone stands on top of the plate these days, he's one of the few that doesn't. Chicken/egg for the bat when it comes to this. In the latter years here he's become such an opposite field hitter which is kind of odd considering he stands so far off the plate. IDK, maybe if he moved in a bit he could use the smaller bat and chase less on the outside stuff.

[monty57]

When you look at Braun's deeper peripherals he is in a 4 year pattern of decline at this point. He is not the same player he was even 2 years ago. Injuries have really derailed his career.

 

Braun turned 34 in November.

 

I'm not sure when the "steroid era" ended, but ESPN's sort engine goes back to 2000. from 2000-2010, there were 40-some players a year that were 34 or older, getting 300+ PA/year. Since 2011, there are 20-some guys per year who are 34 or older getting 300+ PA/year, and only around 10 of them post a WAR of 2 or greater.

 

Whenever a team signs a player to a contract into their mid-30's, they are betting against the odds. It's not a matter of if, but when the player will hit the wall. Braun has been pretty much untradeable for a while now, so all we can do is hope that he can stay reasonably productive for as long as possible.

 

Oh, and we can stop signing players to big contracts that take them into their mid-30's.

[buckybrewer232]

When you look at Braun's deeper peripherals he is in a 4 year pattern of decline at this point. He is not the same player he was even 2 years ago. Injuries have really derailed his career.

 

Braun turned 34 in November.

 

I'm not sure when the "steroid era" ended, but ESPN's sort engine goes back to 2000. from 2000-2010, there were 40-some players a year that were 34 or older, getting 300+ PA/year. Since 2011, there are 20-some guys per year who are 34 or older getting 300+ PA/year, and only around 10 of them post a WAR of 2 or greater.

 

Whenever a team signs a player to a contract into their mid-30's, they are betting against the odds. It's not a matter of if, but when the player will hit the wall. Braun has been pretty much untradeable for a while now, so all we can do is hope that he can stay reasonably productive for as long as possible.

 

Oh, and we can stop signing players to big contracts that take them into their mid-30's.

 

Really interesting numbers, there. It also makes me cringe thinking about paying Cain (who I love) from 2020-2022..

[wildcat83]

According to the JS we pinch hit Bandy last night because Braun and Perez were unavailable and CC wanted to save the versitile Saladino in case he was needed later in the game.

 

There have been a lot of times this year already that outcomes of games have been affected by having a short bench because of nagging injuries. With a 10 day DL there is no excuse for playing MLB games short handed. If Perez has a sore wrist and you know Braun isn't available, the DL Perez. It's not like he's irreplaceable for the 10 days, he's a bench player. Get any healthy body up here. I'm sick of hearing about what Counsel can't do because of injuries. Make the moves and play with a full or very near full roster.

[YelichPosse]

When you look at Braun's deeper peripherals he is in a 4 year pattern of decline at this point. He is not the same player he was even 2 years ago. Injuries have really derailed his career.

 

Braun turned 34 in November.

 

I'm not sure when the "steroid era" ended, but ESPN's sort engine goes back to 2000. from 2000-2010, there were 40-some players a year that were 34 or older, getting 300+ PA/year. Since 2011, there are 20-some guys per year who are 34 or older getting 300+ PA/year, and only around 10 of them post a WAR of 2 or greater.

 

Whenever a team signs a player to a contract into their mid-30's, they are betting against the odds. It's not a matter of if, but when the player will hit the wall. Braun has been pretty much untradeable for a while now, so all we can do is hope that he can stay reasonably productive for as long as possible.

 

Oh, and we can stop signing players to big contracts that take them into their mid-30's.

 

Yes!!!!

 

Although if all teams continued to do this more the players would continue to scream collusion.... even tho its perfectly smart logic!

[wildcat83]

 

Really interesting numbers, there. It also makes me cringe thinking about paying Cain (who I love) from 2020-2022..

 

Cain is going to regress, no doubt. He still will live up to his contract better than Braun aging. Cain is more of a contact hitter than a power, run producer. His biggest drop off will probably come with speed decrease, but I expect him to still be serviceable at the end of that contract. Even if it's in a diminished role.

[Boomer5]

Maybe we just need to adjust our new Brewer reality; we are a light hitting, good pitching team.

[FVBrewerFan]

According to the JS we pinch hit Bandy last night because Braun and Perez were unavailable and CC wanted to save the versitile Saladino in case he was needed later in the game.

 

There have been a lot of times this year already that outcomes of games have been affected by having a short bench because of nagging injuries. With a 10 day DL there is no excuse for playing MLB games short handed. If Perez has a sore wrist and you know Braun isn't available, the DL Perez. It's not like he's irreplaceable for the 10 days, he's a bench player. Get any healthy body up here. I'm sick of hearing about what Counsel can't do because of injuries. Make the moves and play with a full or very near full roster.

 

I hear the frustration, but do you really want to put Perez on the 10 day DL for missing one game? Do we even know if it was a late scratch, making it impossible to get someone over to AZ in time?

 

Braun is the cause for most of this, it's like having a roster of 24 1/2. Get used to it, because this is what we'll have for the next 3 years. Unless they decide to roll with 12 pitchers, which isn't going to happen either.