Offensive Woes

[Boomer5]

Yes. The Brewers minor league system has been very bad, there’s no real way to sugar coat it. We desperately need to bring in better talent evaluators and instructors.

 

And for the love of God get out of Colorado Springs.

[NYChez]

The overly reliant on home run team will likely end the season with one player hitting more than 25 home runs.

[3and2Fastball]

Yes. The Brewers minor league system has been very bad, there’s no real way to sugar coat it. We desperately need to bring in better talent evaluators and instructors.

 

And for the love of God get out of Colorado Springs.

 

It is hard to know for sure if it is the minor league system & instructors, or if it is the people handling the draft.... With the new GM in place I'm hopeful that there will be an increasing uptick in minor league talent. Hiura is hitting .333 in his last 10 games btw

[JosephC]

Not a fan of giving Perez a full-time starting position. Perez has an OBP of .272 and is .282 lifetime, so the .272 is probably not going to get much higher than that. Perez is the defensive swiss-army knife that should be the last bat off the bench. He just makes too many outs.

[xisxisxis]

I get it that prospect lists are suspect, and there's a lot of guesswork in projecting players. But what if year after year, a highly considered farm system under produces? Then isn't it less about the player and more about minor league instruction?

 

This franchise has sold us on patience and development and building from within. But if they can't produce star hitters, then we're doomed to rooting for scrapheap guys.

 

Exactly. It's also telling when players leave Milwaukee/their farm system they become successful. Drafting is only the beginning. Way too little has been done to make sure the player development post-draft has the right people. As JimH accurately points out and which has been plainly clear for a long time, the Brewers rarely produce star players unless they were already close when drafted. If Stearns doesn't have the time to evaluate the player development group then he needs to clean house and bring in a new group. Sure, things could get worse, but the margin for error downward is low and the gains upward are great.

[Boomer5]

I get it that prospect lists are suspect, and there's a lot of guesswork in projecting players. But what if year after year, a highly considered farm system under produces? Then isn't it less about the player and more about minor league instruction?

 

This franchise has sold us on patience and development and building from within. But if they can't produce star hitters, then we're doomed to rooting for scrapheap guys.

 

Exactly. It's also telling when players leave Milwaukee/their farm system they become successful. Drafting is only the beginning. Way too little has been done to make sure the player development post-draft has the right people. As JimH accurately points out and which has been plainly clear for a long time, the Brewers rarely produce star players unless they were already close when drafted. If Stearns doesn't have the time to evaluate the player development group then he needs to clean house and bring in a new group. Sure, things could get worse, but the margin for error downward is low and the gains upward are great.

 

This has always puzzled me about the Brewers. Small market teams can not draft guys like Kodi, Coulter, Covey,Grisham, Ray etc in the first round year after year and expect to be any good.

 

The difference in cost between the best minor league system’s scouts and coaches and the worst is probably not a $2M difference in total salary which is what we waste on guys like Miley and Sogard every year.

[YelichPosse]

I really feel that for as bad as the Brewers had been historically, that they would have not missed on as many players as they have. Especially recently. It’s almost like the Browns in football, they have had how many chances to draft high and done nothing with it. They draft pitchers who’s arms fall off in the first year and hitters who can’t translate to wood bats. It’s like the curse of BJ Surhoff or something (who ended up a better player after he left also... funny as it sounds)....

[3and2Fastball]

So when Braun, Fielder, Hardy, Hart, Cain, Weeks and others all came up through the Brewers minor league system the instruction was good, but now with mostly the same system it is bad?

[JimH5]

I don't know if the instruction is the same as it was under Melvin. I hope it's different than it was 10-15 years ago.

 

I would like the system to produce like it did in those days. Instead, it's been celebrated as being a top tier farm system without much offensive production.

 

They made a big deal out of the Arcia callup. And both he and Brinson are hitting below replacement level.

[Brewer Fever]

The system has been producing better pitching than it previously was. I'll take a system that produces major league arms over one that produces bats any day of the week.

 

And obviously you'd love to see them churn out bats and arms for the "why not both" crowd.

[FVBrewerFan]

I get it that prospect lists are suspect, and there's a lot of guesswork in projecting players. But what if year after year, a highly considered farm system under produces? Then isn't it less about the player and more about minor league instruction?

 

This franchise has sold us on patience and development and building from within. But if they can't produce star hitters, then we're doomed to rooting for scrapheap guys.

 

Exactly. It's also telling when players leave Milwaukee/their farm system they become successful. Drafting is only the beginning. Way too little has been done to make sure the player development post-draft has the right people. As JimH accurately points out and which has been plainly clear for a long time, the Brewers rarely produce star players unless they were already close when drafted. If Stearns doesn't have the time to evaluate the player development group then he needs to clean house and bring in a new group. Sure, things could get worse, but the margin for error downward is low and the gains upward are great.

 

This has always puzzled me about the Brewers. Small market teams can not draft guys like Kodi, Coulter, Covey,Grisham, Ray etc in the first round year after year and expect to be any good.

 

The difference in cost between the best minor league system’s scouts and coaches and the worst is probably not a $2M difference in total salary which is what we waste on guys like Miley and Sogard every year.

 

The jury is still out on virtually all the guys you mentioned.

[tmwiese55]

Was surprised to see Braun in their yesterday day game after night and having played several in a row. guess we see why they always sit him in those situations, looked bad yesterday. Even in the struggles he's still looked or passed the eye test fine after the first two weeks when he was chasing the low outside slider over and over. Seemed off yesterday, hesitant on swings and just kinda not there. Lefty pitcher tonight too so likely playing today too.

[JosephC]

I realize there is a track record that indicates Saladino will not hit. But at least when someone throws him a hanger, Saladino will smack it hard somewhere, which is something the #6-#9 hitters have not been doing this year. Maybe put him in the lineup for a couple of weeks, get lucky and have him be sort of what Sogard was for Milwaukee last year.

 

Also very nice to see Santana looking like he's completely back with the bat. We are not just talking about 1 series, but 13 days into the month and Santana has a .393/.469/.571/1.040 slash line for May. Braun better get it turned around in the next couple of weeks or else he'll become a permanent fixture on the bench. Braun also needs to be moved out of the #3 spot in the lineup until he starts looking better at the plate.

[pacopete4]

Braun better get it turned around in the next couple of weeks or else he'll become a permanent fixture on the bench.

 

Not calling out one poster because we are all probably guilty of this and I've seen it said about a few players already this season. The same thing was said about Santana about two weeks ago. It is a long season. Ups and downs. It'll all get figured out as they go through the season. I'd be willing to bet that Aguilar doesn't continue what he's doing for much longer and if/when he doesn't, next man up will have to carry the baton. That is what good teams do. We worry about this stuff way too much.

[YelichPosse]

Do you guys think Saladino can be an option at 2b? He seems to perform how we wish a backup with ML experience would perform for us... or do you guys believe he would crater if given extended time at 2b? He seems to have a good glove, and him and Arcia up the middle may be fun to watch... Perez seems best suited as a super sub , plug in now and then all over.

[adambr2]

Braun better get it turned around in the next couple of weeks or else he'll become a permanent fixture on the bench.

 

Not calling out one poster because we are all probably guilty of this and I've seen it said about a few players already this season. The same thing was said about Santana about two weeks ago. It is a long season. Ups and downs. It'll all get figured out as they go through the season. I'd be willing to bet that Aguilar doesn't continue what he's doing for much longer and if/when he doesn't, next man up will have to carry the baton. That is what good teams do. We worry about this stuff way too much.

 

None of these guys were trying to figure it out near the top of the order though. It sure wouldn't kill them to drop him to 5th or 6th in the order when he's in for the time being.

 

He's been a fixture at #3 for so many years you wonder if Counsell is hesitant because he feels like he would be slighting him. Anyone else would have been dropped in the order by now.

[adambr2]

Do you guys think Saladino can be an option at 2b? He seems to perform how we wish a backup with ML experience would perform for us... or do you guys believe he would crater if given extended time at 2b? He seems to have a good glove, and him and Arcia up the middle may be fun to watch... Perez seems best suited as a super sub , plug in now and then all over.

 

No. He's a younger and right handed hitting Sogard. He's fine in a utility role as a replacement for Sogard. But no you don't want him starting more than once a week max.

[YelichPosse]

Do you guys think Saladino can be an option at 2b? He seems to perform how we wish a backup with ML experience would perform for us... or do you guys believe he would crater if given extended time at 2b? He seems to have a good glove, and him and Arcia up the middle may be fun to watch... Perez seems best suited as a super sub , plug in now and then all over.

 

No. He's a younger and right handed hitting Sogard. He's fine in a utility role as a replacement for Sogard. But no you don't want him starting more than once a week max.

 

Yea, I wasn't sure, his numbers havent been so bad before last year, so was curious what everyone else thought. It's nice to see Pina kick up again and show some life.... and Arcia has been going up the middle more now.... just seems like 2B will continue to be the black hole where hits go to die .... lol

[pacopete4]

Braun better get it turned around in the next couple of weeks or else he'll become a permanent fixture on the bench.

 

Not calling out one poster because we are all probably guilty of this and I've seen it said about a few players already this season. The same thing was said about Santana about two weeks ago. It is a long season. Ups and downs. It'll all get figured out as they go through the season. I'd be willing to bet that Aguilar doesn't continue what he's doing for much longer and if/when he doesn't, next man up will have to carry the baton. That is what good teams do. We worry about this stuff way too much.

 

None of these guys were trying to figure it out near the top of the order though. It sure wouldn't kill them to drop him to 5th or 6th in the order when he's in for the time being.

 

He's been a fixture at #3 for so many years you wonder if Counsell is hesitant because he feels like he would be slighting him. Anyone else would have been dropped in the order by now.

 

Yeah, it is just one of those things with a veteran player in the MLB. The leashes get longer with proven players. I'm not saying I am opposed to it but what you described is probably right. My guess is he will get a few off days scatted in there now and match him up against guys he's had success against to get him going. To be honest, we need him to get going. He will only help push our offense to where we need it to be. I just wish he would ditch the 35-36 inch bat. He gets himself in trouble with trying to cover so much of the plate.

[FVBrewerFan]

Do you guys think Saladino can be an option at 2b? He seems to perform how we wish a backup with ML experience would perform for us... or do you guys believe he would crater if given extended time at 2b? He seems to have a good glove, and him and Arcia up the middle may be fun to watch... Perez seems best suited as a super sub , plug in now and then all over.

 

No. He's a younger and right handed hitting Sogard. He's fine in a utility role as a replacement for Sogard. But no you don't want him starting more than once a week max.

 

I have no problem with Saladino, Perez, or anyone else in the line-up every day at 2B as long as they're hitting. None of these guys can hit at a respectable level for an entire season, so may as well ride the hot bat. Maybe Saladino can hit at a decent enough level to play every day for 4-6 weeks or whatever, that's fine.

[JohnBriggs12]

Do you guys think Saladino can be an option at 2b? He seems to perform how we wish a backup with ML experience would perform for us... or do you guys believe he would crater if given extended time at 2b? He seems to have a good glove, and him and Arcia up the middle may be fun to watch... Perez seems best suited as a super sub , plug in now and then all over.

 

No. He's a younger and right handed hitting Sogard. He's fine in a utility role as a replacement for Sogard. But no you don't want him starting more than once a week max.

 

I have no problem with Saladino, Perez, or anyone else in the line-up every day at 2B as long as they're hitting. None of these guys can hit at a respectable level for an entire season, so may as well ride the hot bat. Maybe Saladino can hit at a decent enough level to play every day for 4-6 weeks or whatever, that's fine.

 

I dunno. Perez has posted OPS above .700 in each of 2016 and 2017 in over 400 PA each season and Saladino had a .725 OPS over 319 PA in 2016. I'd say that's a respectable level over an entire season.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Brewers currently sit at #18 in all of MLB in terms of 2B offensive OPS - based on this season to date I was expecting to see that ranking much lower.

 

They happen to be dead last in MLB in terms of SS offensive OPS - not really surprised by that at all given it's been manned by a slumping Arcia and awful Sogard.

 

25th in OPS from the C position. 26th in OPS from LF. Rest of their positions are basically at or above league average offensively.

 

The LF #'s surprised me until realizing that most of Braun's best offensive games have come with him as a 1B or PH, and he played extra games out there when Yelich was on the DL. I'd expect those results to improve over time with Yelich there more frequently and Braun hopefully getting hot at some point again this year.

 

Since Stearns took away their worst offensive option at 2B/SS that CC played way too much, the middle infield offensive output has definitely shown signs of life. Pina has also been swinging a good bat, but they still have Bandy on the roster to keep the C position as an area to target improving via trade. Nottingham continues to rake at AAA but I'd just as soon leave him there for this year and improve the MLB roster with a veteran upgrade to Bandy.

 

position-wide OPS lines for this team that are surprisingly good - only 2 games, but they are OPS-ing 1.450 from the DH position. Plus, they are 3rd overall from the PH and 1B spots (getting mileage from that glut of 1B/OF on the roster thus far). 5th overall from pitchers hitting.

[coolhandluke121]

Posted this in the game thread where Braun was being discussed, but it probably belongs here:

 

 

That said, it's probably more than a slump for Braun. He's at that age where it would be more unusual for him to bounce back than it would for him to be a shell of his former self more often than not. More importantly, they probably have 5 guys who are significantly better than him right now at OF/1B... and if you know what I think of Aguilar's chances of maintaining his production (still at a .383 babip on lower hard contact rates than last year), you know how hard that is for me to say.

 

Lastly, the batted ball stuff is not the end-all, be-all. You need more context. His k% is a whopping 5% higher than his career averages, his k/bb ratio is 30% lower, and he often looks like a drunk softball player at the plate. What's going on is probably the same thing that happened to A-Rod towards the end:

 

lower bat speed ---> starting swing a split-second sooner ---> solid power on contact, especially with fastballs ---> respectable slugging

buuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut ----> swinging too soon on off-speed stuff ---> chasing bad pitches ---> horrible OBP ---> bad player

 

Don't hold your breath waiting for the babip and hard contact rates to give him some kind of huge boost.

 

Someone else mentioned the long bat he uses and that's probably an issue too. He should really face facts and move to a smaller bat and try to be like prime Lucroy, a really good singles and doubles hitter without a lot of hr's.

[pacopete4]

It was me Luke. I mentioned the long bat and about being glad that the Brewers allow time before making drastic adjustments. The long bat at his age is a bit silly. Especially when you consider the back and thumb issues he’s had in his career. Shorten it up and let that hand-eye take over. A guy that has a lifetime average above .300 in the majors should be able to make this adjustment. It could really prolong his career as being a good hitter. Not sure Darnell Coles is the man for this job though.

[istanbultaye]

I'll give Braun a little bit longer before I write him off as a sub .800 hitter, but people are definitely making some good points, and though it's still somewhat early, we're at a point that saying "it's early" is starting to wear thin a bit.