Manny Machado (Part 1)

[JohnBriggs12]

In his Friday chat in response to a question about what it would take to get Machado Jeff Sullivan wrote: "I'm sensing a package led by two talented pitching prospects, somewhat close to the majors". That's probably the area of greatest strength in the Brewer system. Even if they let go either Burnes or Peralta and say Ortiz, the cupboard wouldn't be bare as far as pitching prospects. I too hate giving up prospects for rentals, but there's some cases where it so upgrades the roster that it makes sense. It was true with Sabathia in 08, and it's true with Machado now.

[BrewCrewBlueDevil]

Peralta, Woodruff and Santana for Machado?

 

Cain CF

Yelich LF/RF

Machado SS

Shaw 3B

Braun LF/1B

Aguilar/Thames 1B

Perez/Villar 2B

Pina/Kratz C

Pitcher

 

That is a pretty sweet batting order!

[Boomer5]

We have never won a WS. We don't have the TOR guy that a one game WC requires so we really need to win the Central. Machado puts us over the Cubs.

 

Yes it would cost Burnes and Peralta and I'm fine with that.

[nate82]

If Angelos will allow for Machado to be traded I believe the Brewers are the front runner at this point. Woodruff, Peralta, and Ray maybe enough to get Machado. The teams that I think that would be in on Machado are the Braves, Dodgers, and the Brewers. I don't see another team that needs either a SS or a 3B like the Brewers, Braves, and the Dodgers do.

 

The Braves could swoop in and get Machado but I don't think they will offer more than one of their young starting pitchers and if the Orioles want multiple they are going to have to look else where. I believe the Braves will only offer Toussaint and Minter in a deal and will not part with Soroka, Allard, Anderson, or Gohara for Machado. If Machado had more years of control I could definitely see the Braves offering one or more from that list for Machado but since he is just a rental I don't see the Braves giving up any of those prospects for Machado.

 

The Braves are the real competition the Brewers have for Machado. I think the Braves could do better long term if they trade one of their pitching prospects for a bat that has a lot of control left.

[pacopete4]

I don’t think it is wise to give up multiple pitching prospects who are close to being MLB ready for a rental.

[Eye Black]

About six weeks remaining until the trade deadline. With the flexibility to play either SS or 3B I’ve assumed the Orioles would have the ability to cast a wide net while listening to offers for rent-a-Machado. While that may still be true, when I took a closer look at it I don’t see as many no-brainer fits among contenders as I thought there would be. Now obviously Machado would be an upgrade to any lineup, so this isn’t a perfect analysis. Still, an important part of the equation for ponying up prospect capital for Machado is how much better he will potentially improve a team’s production over the current options.

 

My question was which contending teams that currently have the seen the lowest production at either SS or 3B? Below are the possible trade suitors that would currently see the biggest potential production improvement at either SS or 3B by adding Machado this July. The Brewers stand out as the single greatest possible benefactor.

 

For reference, Manny Machado’s stat line is currently:

.306 BA / .377 OBP / .574 SLG / .951 OPS / 14.4 K% / 10.6 BB% / .267 ISO / .393 wOBA / 152 wRC+ / 2.7 fWAR

 

 

Brewers Shortstops

Team’s current production among players at SS this season:

.199 BA / .255 OBP / .284 SLG / .539 OPS / 23.2 K% / 6.6 BB% / .084 ISO / .239 wOBA / 44 wRC+ / -0.4 fWAR

 

Phillies Shortstops

Team’s current production among players at SS this season:

.222 BA / .285 OBP / .361 SLG / .646 OPS / 27.0 K% / 6.9 BB% / .139 ISO / .283 wOBA / 75 wRC+ / 0.1 fWAR

 

Diamondbacks Shortstops

Team’s current production among players at SS this season:

.218 BA / .280 OBP / .407 SLG / .687 OPS / 21.1 K% / 8.0 BB% / .190 ISO / .295 wOBA / 84 wRC+ / 0.4 fWAR

 

Phillies Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.228 BA / .278 OBP / .383 SLG / .661 OPS / 21.7 K% / 5.8 BB% / .155 ISO / .285 wOBA / 77 wRC+ / -0.3 fWAR

 

Angels Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.221 BA / .289 OBP / .370 SLG / .659 OPS / 24.1 K% / 7.3 BB% / .149 ISO / .288 wOBA / 84 wRC+ / 0.5 fWAR

 

Red Sox Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.238 BA / .288 OBP / .412 SLG / .700 OPS / 26.3 K% / 6.8 BB% / .173 ISO / .296 wOBA / 83 wRC+ / 0.5 fWAR

 

Braves Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.238 BA / .330 OBP / .386 SLG / .716 OPS / 21.1 K% / 11.3 BB% / .149 ISO / .312 wOBA / 96 wRC+ / 0.9 fWAR

 

Nationals Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.242 BA / .310 OBP / .378 SLG / .688 OPS / 16.9 K% / 8.9 BB% / .136 ISO / .297 wOBA / 84 wRC+ / 1.1 fWAR

 

Mariners Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.226 BA / .276 OBP / .420 SLG / .696 OPS / 20.4 K% / 5.1 BB% / .193 ISO / .298 wOBA / 91 wRC+ / 1.2 fWAR

 

 

Again, any contender would improve with Machado’s bat in the lineup, but the above are the contenders with the most glaring current needs at SS or 3B.

[Eye Black]

If Angelos will allow for Machado to be traded I believe the Brewers are the front runner at this point. Woodruff, Peralta, and Ray maybe enough to get Machado. The teams that I think that would be in on Machado are the Braves, Dodgers, and the Brewers. I don't see another team that needs either a SS or a 3B like the Brewers, Braves, and the Dodgers do.

 

The Braves could swoop in and get Machado but I don't think they will offer more than one of their young starting pitchers and if the Orioles want multiple they are going to have to look else where. I believe the Braves will only offer Toussaint and Minter in a deal and will not part with Soroka, Allard, Anderson, or Gohara for Machado. If Machado had more years of control I could definitely see the Braves offering one or more from that list for Machado but since he is just a rental I don't see the Braves giving up any of those prospects for Machado.

 

The Braves are the real competition the Brewers have for Machado. I think the Braves could do better long term if they trade one of their pitching prospects for a bat that has a lot of control left.

That would be a steep price to pay (re: Woodruff, Peralta, Ray), but I think the Brewers would have to consider it given the incredible boost it would provide their lineup.

[reillymcshane]

About six weeks remaining until the trade deadline. With the flexibility to play either SS or 3B I’ve assumed the Orioles would have the ability to cast a wide net while listening to offers for rent-a-Machado. While that may still be true, when I took a closer look at it I don’t see as many no-brainer fits among contenders as I thought there would be. Now obviously Machado would be an upgrade to any lineup, so this isn’t a perfect analysis. Still, an important part of the equation for ponying up prospect capital for Machado is how much better he will potentially improve a team’s production over the current options.

 

My question was which contending teams that currently have the seen the lowest production at either SS or 3B? Below are the possible trade suitors that would currently see the biggest potential production improvement at either SS or 3B by adding Machado this July. The Brewers stand out as the single greatest possible benefactor.

 

For reference, Manny Machado’s stat line is currently:

.306 BA / .377 OBP / .574 SLG / .951 OPS / 14.4 K% / 10.6 BB% / .267 ISO / .393 wOBA / 152 wRC+ / 2.7 fWAR

 

 

Brewers Shortstops

Team’s current production among players at SS this season:

.199 BA / .255 OBP / .284 SLG / .539 OPS / 23.2 K% / 6.6 BB% / .084 ISO / .239 wOBA / 44 wRC+ / -0.4 fWAR

 

Phillies Shortstops

Team’s current production among players at SS this season:

.222 BA / .285 OBP / .361 SLG / .646 OPS / 27.0 K% / 6.9 BB% / .139 ISO / .283 wOBA / 75 wRC+ / 0.1 fWAR

 

Diamondbacks Shortstops

Team’s current production among players at SS this season:

.218 BA / .280 OBP / .407 SLG / .687 OPS / 21.1 K% / 8.0 BB% / .190 ISO / .295 wOBA / 84 wRC+ / 0.4 fWAR

 

Phillies Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.228 BA / .278 OBP / .383 SLG / .661 OPS / 21.7 K% / 5.8 BB% / .155 ISO / .285 wOBA / 77 wRC+ / -0.3 fWAR

 

Angels Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.221 BA / .289 OBP / .370 SLG / .659 OPS / 24.1 K% / 7.3 BB% / .149 ISO / .288 wOBA / 84 wRC+ / 0.5 fWAR

 

Red Sox Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.238 BA / .288 OBP / .412 SLG / .700 OPS / 26.3 K% / 6.8 BB% / .173 ISO / .296 wOBA / 83 wRC+ / 0.5 fWAR

 

Braves Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.238 BA / .330 OBP / .386 SLG / .716 OPS / 21.1 K% / 11.3 BB% / .149 ISO / .312 wOBA / 96 wRC+ / 0.9 fWAR

 

Nationals Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.242 BA / .310 OBP / .378 SLG / .688 OPS / 16.9 K% / 8.9 BB% / .136 ISO / .297 wOBA / 84 wRC+ / 1.1 fWAR

 

Mariners Third Baseman

Team’s current production among players at 3B this season:

.226 BA / .276 OBP / .420 SLG / .696 OPS / 20.4 K% / 5.1 BB% / .193 ISO / .298 wOBA / 91 wRC+ / 1.2 fWAR

 

 

Again, any contender would improve with Machado’s bat in the lineup, but the above are the contenders with the most glaring current needs at SS or 3B.

I would think the Nationals and Mariners would be mostly out on Machado. Nats have Anthony Rendon at 3B and the Mariners have Kyle Seeger. Both have been good players as recently as last year, and will probably bank on an improvement from those guys (assuming both are healthy). Plus, the Mariners have no one to trade.

[Eye Black]

I would think the Nationals and Mariners would be mostly out on Machado. Nats have Anthony Rendon at 3B and the Mariners have Kyle Seeger. Both have been good players as recently as last year, and will probably bank on an improvement from those guys (assuming both are healthy). Plus, the Mariners have no one to trade.

I completely agree. I tried to cover all of the contenders that currently have had below average production on the left side of the infield this season. It isn’t perfect from the standpoint some teams have injuries, good players in slumps, long term commitments, etc., that are all factors worth considering.

[nate82]

That would be a steep price to pay (re: Woodruff, Peralta, Ray), but I think the Brewers would have to consider it given the incredible boost it would provide their lineup.

 

Definitely a steep price but it is far less than what the Orioles would be expecting for the return for Machado. Giving up Woodruff and Peralta would hurt but if you said this would be the package it would take to get Machado last year it would have been laughed at even during the off season. I believe the Orioles are looking for more but I just don't see a team out there that is going to give up more than one top 75-100 type prospect for Machado.

[wallus]

I would like Machado on the team but he is playing over his head right now and is due for regression. It is likely he will do better than whomever we have playing SS the rest of the season but we will be giving up a lot to acquire him. I don't know if it is worth it.

[long ball]

Interesting name at SS I just across is Eduardo Escobar of the Twins. At this point they will likely be 5+ games out of the division race and well out of wild card contention when the deadline rolls around.

 

Escobar has mostly been a utility man, but has played a lot of SS this year because of Polanco's suspension. He's probably a guy the Twins will be willing to move.

 

He's a switch hitter and is hitting well from both sides of the plate. He could be the primary starter at SS and also spell Shaw at 3b against tough lefties.

 

He'd presumably cost significantly less than Machado. He may have moved to the top of my wish list.

[MadThinker88]

Interesting name at SS I just across is Eduardo Escobar of the Twins. At this point they will likely be 5+ games out of the division race and well out of wild card contention when the deadline rolls around.

 

Escobar has mostly been a utility man, but has played a lot of SS this year because of Polanco's suspension. He's probably a guy the Twins will be willing to move.

 

He's a switch hitter and is hitting well from both sides of the plate. He could be the primary starter at SS and also spell Shaw at 3b against tough lefties.

 

He'd presumably cost significantly less than Machado. He may have moved to the top of my wish list.

 

The Twins are playing in the weakest division in baseball and are 6-2 vs Cleveland so far.

On top of that if they overtake Cleveland & make the postseason (I don't think a WC is possible with the other AL teams), Polanco is ineligible for the post-season due to the PED suspension. With the struggles (& sending out) of Sano, Escobar might get some time at 3B once Polanco returns.

 

I highly doubt the Twins move Escobar unless they get double the value..

[JosephC]

Machado has been bad at shortstop this year and it's largely offset much of the value he brings with the bat. Fangraphs has him as a 2.8 WAR player so far this year, Baseball Reference is at 1.8. Take the average (2.3) and extrapolate that to the end of the season and it comes out to 5.3. So if a team trades for him with the intent to play shortstop, he should be valued as good for 3 wins from now until the end of the season.

 

1 WAR = 9.16 million

3 WAR * 9.16 million = 27.48 million

Machado earns 16 million this year, which means he's due approximately 9 million for the remainder of the season.

27.48 - 9 = 18.48 million in surplus value

 

Fair trade for Machado would be something like:

1. Machado straight up for Corbin Burnes

2. Machado for Corey Ray and Cody Ponce OR Trey Supak plus a lower regarded fringe (not top 50 in organization) prospect

3. Machado for Cody Ponce and Trey Supak and Jake Gatewood plus a lower regarded fringe (not top 50 in organization) prospect

 

Machado likely goes for more than this but, if so, the numbers say it would be a bad deal from the Brewer's end of it. If a team like the Red Sox want to pick him up to play third base, then it would make sense for them to pay much more because his value as a third baseman would be much greater than at shortstop.

[KeithStone53151]

Machado has been bad at shortstop this year and it's largely offset much of the value he brings with the bat. Fangraphs has him as a 2.8 WAR player so far this year, Baseball Reference is at 1.8. Take the average (2.3) and extrapolate that to the end of the season and it comes out to 5.3. So if a team trades for him with the intent to play shortstop, he should be valued as good for 3 wins from now until the end of the season.

 

1 WAR = 9.16 million

3 WAR * 9.16 million = 27.48 million

Machado earns 16 million this year, which means he's due approximately 9 million for the remainder of the season.

27.48 - 9 = 18.48 million in surplus value

 

Fair trade for Machado would be something like:

1. Machado straight up for Corbin Burnes

2. Machado for Corey Ray and Cody Ponce OR Trey Supak plus a lower regarded fringe (not top 50 in organization) prospect

3. Machado for Cody Ponce and Trey Supak and Jake Gatewood plus a lower regarded fringe (not top 50 in organization) prospect

 

Machado likely goes for more than this but, if so, the numbers say it would be a bad deal from the Brewer's end of it. If a team like the Red Sox want to pick him up to play third base, then it would make sense for them to pay much more because his value as a third baseman would be much greater than at shortstop.

 

It's so hard to handicap what Machado will go for. It's 2 months of a guy, but there's so much history of teams giving up a haul for the premium upgrade...even for 2 months. I could see the Dodgers giving up someone like Ruiz or Diaz as a centerpiece with another good piece added, maybe Alvarez. That seems insane on the surface as both guys are doing very well at a young age in AA, but that's just how the deadline goes. I don't think we'll see an insane overpay like the Chapman deal, but the deal I noted above would still be quite the overpay.

[long ball]

Interesting name at SS I just across is Eduardo Escobar of the Twins. At this point they will likely be 5+ games out of the division race and well out of wild card contention when the deadline rolls around.

 

Escobar has mostly been a utility man, but has played a lot of SS this year because of Polanco's suspension. He's probably a guy the Twins will be willing to move.

 

He's a switch hitter and is hitting well from both sides of the plate. He could be the primary starter at SS and also spell Shaw at 3b against tough lefties.

 

He'd presumably cost significantly less than Machado. He may have moved to the top of my wish list.

 

The Twins are playing in the weakest division in baseball and are 6-2 vs Cleveland so far.

On top of that if they overtake Cleveland & make the postseason (I don't think a WC is possible with the other AL teams), Polanco is ineligible for the post-season due to the PED suspension. With the struggles (& sending out) of Sano, Escobar might get some time at 3B once Polanco returns.

 

I highly doubt the Twins move Escobar unless they get double the value..

 

I think we differ there. If the Twins continue to struggle to win consistently I don't think they'll hang around. 5.0 our right now. I think the Indians are really good and will eventually go on a run where they win 15 or 20 or something like that and put a little more separation between them and the rest of that crap division.

 

The Twins 'sold' at last year's deadline. They traded for Jamie Garcia and then traded him again 2 weeks later when they struggled during that stretch. Is it possible they're a little more invested in this season after spending some $$ on morrision, reed, lynn, etc? Maybe, but I just don't see them sticking around in the playoff race and recent history would suggest they could trade off some of these guys.

[danzig6767]

It's so hard to handicap what Machado will go for. It's 2 months of a guy, but there's so much history of teams giving up a haul for the premium upgrade...even for 2 months. I could see the Dodgers giving up someone like Ruiz or Diaz as a centerpiece with another good piece added, maybe Alvarez. That seems insane on the surface as both guys are doing very well at a young age in AA, but that's just how the deadline goes. I don't think we'll see an insane overpay like the Chapman deal, but the deal I noted above would still be quite the overpay.

I think teams for the most part have been given up less for rentals, especially since teams no longer get the first round pick once the player leaves in the offseason. In the past when teams could count on getting that pick back, it made trading a lot for a rental easier to stomach.

[Eye Black]

I tend to agree that I expect the initial reaction to be that the return for Machado will seem lighter than expected. I don’t think there will be enough bidders to drive up offers to the point of being significant overpays. It is possible the Orioles could channel the 2011 Mets with Jose Reyes and just hang onto Machado (although the Mets were at least a .500 team leading up to the trade deadline), but they would get absolutely roasted if they did (and deservedly so).

[brewmann04]

Since the Brewers realistically have no chance to sign him you have to really be careful what pieces you move for him.

[brewcrewdue80]

Machado is having a contract year, to this point. I don't see opt out clause being discussed with the money he's going to be offered. If I'm a team throwing 300mil+ at him, I don't give him that option. You're looking at 10yr kind of deal. Full risk on the teams end for 3-4years of well paid production, or 6-7 years of overpayment on that deal potentially. If it's an opt out deal Id guess its a 5-6year shorter deal where 3-4year opt out makes sense on both ends.

 

As mentioned by other poster, teams held back on the worst FA class in some time, to spend on whats going to be one of the best FA classes. Brewers have 0pct chance of signing Machado as he's going to be well paid beyond what Brewer payroll can take on.

While he will impact the lineup from day 1. I cant agree to trade away what I think it'll cost when a division title is up for grabs among 4teams. You go on a 1game WC playoff game get knocked out. The loss on premium prospects for that end is devastating.

[brewmann04]

I agree totally with the your post 100%

[adambr2]

Machado is having a contract year, to this point. I don't see opt out clause being discussed with the money he's going to be offered. If I'm a team throwing 300mil+ at him, I don't give him that option. You're looking at 10yr kind of deal. Full risk on the teams end for 3-4years of well paid production, or 6-7 years of overpayment on that deal potentially. If it's an opt out deal Id guess its a 5-6year shorter deal where 3-4year opt out makes sense on both ends.

 

As mentioned by other poster, teams held back on the worst FA class in some time, to spend on whats going to be one of the best FA classes. Brewers have 0pct chance of signing Machado as he's going to be well paid beyond what Brewer payroll can take on.

 

Machado is extremely likely to get an opt-out. He's a 25 year old star player at a premium position hitting free agency. Just because you don't want to give him that option doesn't mean there won't be 10 other GMs that will if they want to get him.

 

If you wanted to get him without an opt out you'd basically have to blow everyone else away in terms of average annual and total value to the point where it would never really make sense for him to opt out.

 

I do agree the Brewers aren't signing Machado and any trade for him would be a pure rental with nothing to show for it beyond what they get from him this year.

[Roderick]

Machado is having a contract year, to this point. I don't see opt out clause being discussed with the money he's going to be offered. If I'm a team throwing 300mil+ at him, I don't give him that option. You're looking at 10yr kind of deal. Full risk on the teams end for 3-4years of well paid production, or 6-7 years of overpayment on that deal potentially. If it's an opt out deal Id guess its a 5-6year shorter deal where 3-4year opt out makes sense on both ends.

 

As mentioned by other poster, teams held back on the worst FA class in some time, to spend on whats going to be one of the best FA classes. Brewers have 0pct chance of signing Machado as he's going to be well paid beyond what Brewer payroll can take on.

 

Machado is extremely likely to get an opt-out. He's a 25 year old star player at a premium position hitting free agency. Just because you don't want to give him that option doesn't mean there won't be 10 other GMs that will if they want to get him.

 

If you wanted to get him without an opt out you'd basically have to blow everyone else away in terms of average annual and total value to the point where it would never really make sense for him to opt out.

 

I do agree the Brewers aren't signing Machado and any trade for him would be a pure rental with nothing to show for it beyond what they get from him this year.

 

I don't see the opt out clause as all that bad from the team standpoint.

 

The player has obviously played well and is healthy if they are willing to opt out. So you have received more production than you have paid in salary. And the later years are the more expensive years on the contract that he is opting out of. So you may get the best of all worlds the good play just before the production goes down to age/injury. The thing is you can't plan as readily, so you would hope for as soon an opt out date as possible, so you can sign a replacement.

 

Question - on the opt out scenario, does the team get a draft pick?

[Outlander]

Machado has been bad at shortstop this year and it's largely offset much of the value he brings with the bat. Fangraphs has him as a 2.8 WAR player so far this year, Baseball Reference is at 1.8. Take the average (2.3) and extrapolate that to the end of the season and it comes out to 5.3. So if a team trades for him with the intent to play shortstop, he should be valued as good for 3 wins from now until the end of the season.

 

1 WAR = 9.16 million

3 WAR * 9.16 million = 27.48 million

Machado earns 16 million this year, which means he's due approximately 9 million for the remainder of the season.

27.48 - 9 = 18.48 million in surplus value

 

Fair trade for Machado would be something like:

1. Machado straight up for Corbin Burnes

2. Machado for Corey Ray and Cody Ponce OR Trey Supak plus a lower regarded fringe (not top 50 in organization) prospect

3. Machado for Cody Ponce and Trey Supak and Jake Gatewood plus a lower regarded fringe (not top 50 in organization) prospect

 

Machado likely goes for more than this but, if so, the numbers say it would be a bad deal from the Brewer's end of it. If a team like the Red Sox want to pick him up to play third base, then it would make sense for them to pay much more because his value as a third baseman would be much greater than at shortstop.

I like the analysis but since the Orioles would get a Comp A pick when Machado leaves does that have to play into the return? Sure, Burnes is worth more than a Comp A pick but is there less incentive for the Orioles to trade him and thus more of a return needed?

[JosephC]

Machado has been bad at shortstop this year and it's largely offset much of the value he brings with the bat. Fangraphs has him as a 2.8 WAR player so far this year, Baseball Reference is at 1.8. Take the average (2.3) and extrapolate that to the end of the season and it comes out to 5.3. So if a team trades for him with the intent to play shortstop, he should be valued as good for 3 wins from now until the end of the season.

 

1 WAR = 9.16 million

3 WAR * 9.16 million = 27.48 million

Machado earns 16 million this year, which means he's due approximately 9 million for the remainder of the season.

27.48 - 9 = 18.48 million in surplus value

 

Fair trade for Machado would be something like:

1. Machado straight up for Corbin Burnes

2. Machado for Corey Ray and Cody Ponce OR Trey Supak plus a lower regarded fringe (not top 50 in organization) prospect

3. Machado for Cody Ponce and Trey Supak and Jake Gatewood plus a lower regarded fringe (not top 50 in organization) prospect

 

Machado likely goes for more than this but, if so, the numbers say it would be a bad deal from the Brewer's end of it. If a team like the Red Sox want to pick him up to play third base, then it would make sense for them to pay much more because his value as a third baseman would be much greater than at shortstop.

I like the analysis but since the Orioles would get a Comp A pick when Machado leaves does that have to play into the return? Sure, Burnes is worth more than a Comp A pick but is there less incentive for the Orioles to trade him and thus more of a return needed?

 

A compensatory pick should be considered an offer just like the offers the Orioles would receive from other teams. To me there is no difference in an offer from team A, an offer from team B, a compensatory pick. If the Orioles value the compensatory pick more than the offer from team A or the offer from team B, then they should keep Machado and take the compensatory pick instead of a trade package.

 

Shouldn't matter if I'm the Yankees or the Brewers, if I'm making this trade then I am trading for Machado and the value he brings to my team. My offer should be based on that. It doesn't make much sense for me to pay the Orioles more for missing out on a compensatory pick because they are the team getting the compensatory pick...not my team.