Manny Machado (Part 1)

[monkeyman343434]

I think you'd have to be at the 10-year mark to make him even think about it.

 

Agreed on this, I think the only way to get him to sign now and not go to to free agency would be 10 years $400M. He'll still only be 35 in the last year of that contract, unlike some of these other horrible contracts like Pujols and Votto where they'll be 40 at the end of their deals.

[adambr2]

You give Machado his full asking price right now (I'm guessing 7 years $210 Million) and he'll sign. Why risk injury in the 2nd Half which could effect his bargaining power when he can get the full contract right now?

 

You'd have to blow away the high end of what Machado thinks he can get in free agency to get him to agree to commit the next decade of his life to Milwaukee before he's spent one day with the team. 7/210 doesn't come close to that. That's probably on the very low end if he ends up with a very disappointing free agency, but no way he takes that right now.

 

You'd probably be talking more like 10/400 to keep him off the market, and even then only if he actually wants to be here.

 

Reality is unfortunately we just can't afford that kind of contract.

[3and2Fastball]

I don't know. Big contracts are risky in general. This is not a good time to be a player getting long term contracts, especially for position players.

 

With Harper, likely Kershaw, and a bunch of other top players coming on the market, the chances of Machado getting

 

A) a 7 year contract

B) a guarantee to stick at SS

C) on a team likely to contend

 

Are not as vast & wide as you might think. I really think the Brewers might have a shot. Especially if they get creative and maybe front load the contract with a player opt out after 4 years (so Machado could re-enter the free agent market after his age 30 season if he wants)

[3and2Fastball]

I don't know. Big contracts are risky in general. This is not a good time to be a player getting long term contracts, especially for position players.

 

With Harper, likely Kershaw, and a bunch of other top players coming on the market, the chances of Machado getting

 

A) a 7 year contract

B) a guarantee to stick at SS

C) on a team likely to contend

 

Are not as vast & wide as you might think. I really think the Brewers might have a shot. Especially if they get creative and maybe front load the contract with a player opt out after 4 years (so Machado could re-enter the free agent market after his age 30 season if he wants)

[bill hAll Star]

It really wouldn't......IF YOU THINK HE IS THE MISSING PIECE.

 

But we still need more than just him.

 

There is no such thing as a "missing piece." We could trade for Kershaw, Machado and Harper and there's still a good chance we wouldn't win the World Series.

 

Then why even try then

 

The Brewers currently are trying. Their GM is very shrewd and won't make a deal unless it seems to be very much in his favor. It may be more of an extended window with many playoff opportunities.

 

Now, at a certain point you may just have to go for it, but I'm not sure we're there yet.

[bill hAll Star]

I was trying to craft a Machado contract for fun and the issue is in the short-term.

 

If one wants to basically hitch their wagon to Machado for the next decade, in theory, it could be swung. It's probably stupid but it would not be insanely shocking.

 

I even think that if he was willing to go to $130 million team salary for 2-3 years and backload the contract it could be done.

 

The problem is that Machado will likely want an opt out after 2 or 3 years with some huge $ in years 1 and 2. Unless Mark wants to go to $150 million for his team salary, I don't see that happening.

[3and2Fastball]

I was trying to craft a Machado contract for fun and the issue is in the short-term.

 

If one wants to basically hitch their wagon to Machado for the next decade, in theory, it could be swung. It's probably stupid but it would not be insanely shocking.

 

I even think that if he was willing to go to $130 million team salary for 2-3 years and backload the contract it could be done.

 

The problem is that Machado will likely want an opt out after 2 or 3 years with some huge $ in years 1 and 2. Unless Mark wants to go to $150 million, I don't see that happening.

 

7 years $210-$230 million, front loaded with $120 million over the first 3 years, opt out after 4 years. It can be done.

[bill hAll Star]

I was trying to craft a Machado contract for fun and the issue is in the short-term.

 

If one wants to basically hitch their wagon to Machado for the next decade, in theory, it could be swung. It's probably stupid but it would not be insanely shocking.

 

I even think that if he was willing to go to $130 million team salary for 2-3 years and backload the contract it could be done.

 

The problem is that Machado will likely want an opt out after 2 or 3 years with some huge $ in years 1 and 2. Unless Mark wants to go to $150 million, I don't see that happening.

 

7 years $210-$230 million, front loaded with $120 million over the first 3 years, opt out after 4 years. It can be done.

 

1. I don't think that's enough for his contract. He can do better.

 

2. If it is and you frontload $40 million/year for the first 3 years, that means that the Brewers' payroll is going to likely be $150 million in 2019 and probably 2020 unless they do some drastic payroll slashing elsewhere. I doubt we see that. I know someone will bring up that they will "pay it forward" with their savings from 2016 and 2017, but not that much.

[3and2Fastball]

Oh, Mark needs to just win a World Series or two and get over himself. As if the franchise can't withstand a deficit for a season or three and then renegotiate the TV contract and raise ticket prices a little when the Brewers are World Champs. Mark's already quadrupled his initial investment. The value of the Brewers has increased $750 million. If he can't figure out a way to do this he's either an idiot of playing the fans like chumps all the way to the bank.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Oh, Mark needs to just win a World Series or two and get over himself. As if the franchise can't withstand a deficit for a season or three and then renegotiate the TV contract and raise ticket prices a little when the Brewers are World Champs. Mark's already quadrupled his initial investment. The value of the Brewers has increased $750 million. If he can't figure out a way to do this he's either an idiot of playing the fans like chumps all the way to the bank.

 

I think we need to remember that the end goal of player acquisition and building the minor league system is to win a World Series. Literally nothing else is as important than that. I'd take a Series win over 5 straight division championships with NLCS bow outs any day of the week.

 

Edit: I'm agreeing with you 3and2Fastball, if that was unclear.

[reillymcshane]

I don't think there's any way Machado doesn't test free agency this off season. That will - to a degree - limit what Baltimore can get for him. If the price is right and the need is glaring - I could see Milwaukee making an offer - knowing full well he's gone after the season.

 

I expect Machado to get $30M annually - 7-8 years, with an opt out after three seasons.

 

Of course, I'm usually short on guesses for these monster contracts. I think, "No one will give the guy a 10 year deal" - but all it takes is one team to back up the Brink's truck.

 

The big think about Machado is that he's elevated his game from really, really good to MVP-caliber. That kind of player is rare, and someone usually overpays for it.

 

But we'll see. It will be interesting.

[KCBrewerfan34]

You give Machado his full asking price right now (I'm guessing 7 years $210 Million) and he'll sign. Why risk injury in the 2nd Half which could effect his bargaining power when he can get the full contract right now?

 

 

No he won’t (wouldn’t).

[adambr2]

I was trying to craft a Machado contract for fun and the issue is in the short-term.

 

If one wants to basically hitch their wagon to Machado for the next decade, in theory, it could be swung. It's probably stupid but it would not be insanely shocking.

 

I even think that if he was willing to go to $130 million team salary for 2-3 years and backload the contract it could be done.

 

The problem is that Machado will likely want an opt out after 2 or 3 years with some huge $ in years 1 and 2. Unless Mark wants to go to $150 million, I don't see that happening.

 

7 years $210-$230 million, front loaded with $120 million over the first 3 years, opt out after 4 years. It can be done.

 

There is a difference between that offer being made now and being made in free agency.

 

Honestly asking, can you give one comparable example in MLB where a player took a megadeal this close to free agency as a condition of a trade?

[3and2Fastball]

AdamBr - good point. Call it a "gut feeling" or call it a "fools wishes", either way I don't care because I don't take this stuff personally, but I honestly think it could happen. Even without precedent because I really think this past offseason freaked out, and I mean severely freaked out a ton of agents & players.

 

You would think Machado would get a huge payday in the offseason, but he hasn't been a consistent superstar, there are metrics that say he isn't a great defensive Shortstop, and even though he's only 25 he has had his share of injuries.

 

He might want A-Rod money but he has not produced anywhere close to the stratosphere of A-Rod prior to A-Rod's huge payday signing with Texas. A-Rod was looked at as the next Honus Wagner. Or Barry Bonds at Shortstop. A lot of teams might look at Machado more like the next Scott Rolen... Seriously (and Rolen was criminally underrated in my opinion, look up some of his seasons)

 

If Machado's agent has an asking price and the Brewers meet it, it could get done.

[brewmann04]

I agree i don't think the Brewers will sign him long term and will not bust the Farm System. But it will be nice to get our first ring.

[Fear The Chorizo]

With the resurgence of the Dodgers in an inconsistent NL West, Machado makes too much sense for them to acquire with Seager out. They are still under .500 but only a couple games out of the division lead and are getting healthier. Having them in the mix will drive the price up beyond what the Brewers would likely feel comfortable parting with for a 2 month + postseason rental.

[bill hAll Star]

AdamBr - good point. Call it a "gut feeling" or call it a "fools wishes", either way I don't care because I don't take this stuff personally, but I honestly think it could happen. Even without precedent because I really think this past offseason freaked out, and I mean severely freaked out a ton of agents & players.

 

Here's the thing, though: Last offseason "freaked players out" because 4 or 5 of the big dogs tried to sit under the luxury tax threshold specifically because they were waiting it out until this coming offseason. Those teams will all be back in play and bidding against one another.

 

And to add to that, the players that were freaked out were non-elite, late 20s/early 30s players. Machado is not that. Someone will think he's elite enough. And he's only going to be 26.

[bill hAll Star]

Oh, Mark needs to just win a World Series or two and get over himself. As if the franchise can't withstand a deficit for a season or three and then renegotiate the TV contract and raise ticket prices a little when the Brewers are World Champs. Mark's already quadrupled his initial investment. The value of the Brewers has increased $750 million. If he can't figure out a way to do this he's either an idiot of playing the fans like chumps all the way to the bank.

 

I think we need to remember that the end goal of player acquisition and building the minor league system is to win a World Series. Literally nothing else is as important than that. I'd take a Series win over 5 straight division championships with NLCS bow outs any day of the week.

 

Edit: I'm agreeing with you 3and2Fastball, if that was unclear.

 

This is a business run by rich people that are rich for a reason. We can yell this at a cloud all we want, and by all accounts, by greedy rich person standards, Mark and Co. have gone somewhat further than some franchises have in terms of spending close to a deficit some years...but outside of maybe a few Mike Ilitch years where he probably pushed it, I don't see many owners running a deficit because a few fans on a message board are imploring them to do so.

 

I also find it funny that half of this board is chalking up a World Series victory if we make some "win now" moves like Machado. It probably increases our odds from 5% to 8% for one season. If we're maybe more certain of a playoff spot later in the year, maybe it takes it from 9% to 12%.

[adambr2]

Oh, Mark needs to just win a World Series or two and get over himself. As if the franchise can't withstand a deficit for a season or three and then renegotiate the TV contract and raise ticket prices a little when the Brewers are World Champs. Mark's already quadrupled his initial investment. The value of the Brewers has increased $750 million. If he can't figure out a way to do this he's either an idiot of playing the fans like chumps all the way to the bank.

 

I think we need to remember that the end goal of player acquisition and building the minor league system is to win a World Series. Literally nothing else is as important than that. I'd take a Series win over 5 straight division championships with NLCS bow outs any day of the week.

 

Edit: I'm agreeing with you 3and2Fastball, if that was unclear.

 

This is a business run by rich people that are rich for a reason. We can yell this at a cloud all we want, and by all accounts, by greedy rich person standards, Mark and Co. have gone somewhat further than some franchises have in terms of spending close to a deficit some years...but outside of maybe a few Mike Ilitch years where he probably pushed it, I don't see many owners running a deficit because a few fans on a message board are imploring them to do so.

 

I also find it funny that half of this board is chalking up a World Series victory if we make some "win now" moves like Machado. It probably increases our odds from 5% to 8% for one season. If we're maybe more certain of a playoff spot later in the year, maybe it takes it from 9% to 12%.

 

Yeah, I would be very excited to get Machado, but you're right. This is still a business and telling Mark A. he should just run in the red for 3 seasons and then he can jack up prices later to get it back after we win the World Series is just really unrealistic. What if that World Series never comes? What if we sign Machado for $40M a year and he gets injured next year and never comes back the same? We're then probably rebuilding and completely underwater on the Machado deal.

 

If it was your money, surely you would take all these things into consideration. Mark A. would not ever have been in a position to own an MLB franchise if he ran it like some people want him to.

[3and2Fastball]

What if we never win a World Series!? The Value of Mark's investment in the Brewers has gone up $750 million!!!! Somehow I think they'll survive and his poor wife won't have to go without caviar on their yacht.

[bill hAll Star]

What if we never win a World Series!? The Value of Mark's investment in the Brewers has gone up $750 million!!!! Somehow I think they'll survive and his poor wife won't have to go without caviar on their yacht.

 

I'd suggest that following professional sports teams may not be for you, then. Nearly 100% of owners are like this and I don't think it's changing.

 

If I was to put my rich guy glasses on for a moment, it isn't just Attanasio. He has a group of investors to appease. He needs to keep the profit for them as well.

 

I'm sure they'd all live if a theoretical Machado deal went belly-up. But, I mean, I'll just guess and say you're a late 30s guy with $250k in the bank/savings for retirement someday. Would you give up $50k for a Manny Machado 10 year contract? It's impossible to compare apples to apples here, but in theory, you should be fine without that $50k, right?

[Warning Track Power]

With the resurgence of the Dodgers in an inconsistent NL West, Machado makes too much sense for them to acquire with Seager out. They are still under .500 but only a couple games out of the division lead and are getting healthier. Having them in the mix will drive the price up beyond what the Brewers would likely feel comfortable parting with for a 2 month + postseason rental.

This. I don't want the Brewers to get into a bidding war with the major markets to trade for a player who likely will be gone after 2018 and who I wouldn't want the Brewers to spend $30+ million annually on.

[MadThinker88]

With the resurgence of the Dodgers in an inconsistent NL West, Machado makes too much sense for them to acquire with Seager out. They are still under .500 but only a couple games out of the division lead and are getting healthier. Having them in the mix will drive the price up beyond what the Brewers would likely feel comfortable parting with for a 2 month + postseason rental.

This. I don't want the Brewers to get into a bidding war with the major markets to trade for a player who likely will be gone after 2018 and who I wouldn't want the Brewers to spend $30+ million annually on.

 

This discussion has been raised many times on the Baseball Tonight podcast. Buster continues to point out that he doubt that the Dodgers are in on Machado.

 

Yes they (the Dodgers) have prospects along with the money and market to spend, but their management group is trying to keep themselves under the luxury tax threshold.

 

That said, if the Baltimore mgmt group realizes that the only way to really get the prospect return they desire on Machado is to take back equal or greater salary (a la the Bartolo Colon trade to Montreal for Lee Stevens (to even out the money) along with Brandon Phillips, Cliff Lee & Grady Sizemore) then I could see almost all markets "in play" for Machado, including the Dodgers.

[dacrew101]

I’m not a fan of trading any major prospects for rentals.

[OnTheBlack]

AdamBr - good point. Call it a "gut feeling" or call it a "fools wishes", either way I don't care because I don't take this stuff personally, but I honestly think it could happen. Even without precedent because I really think this past offseason freaked out, and I mean severely freaked out a ton of agents & players.

 

Here's the thing, though: Last offseason "freaked players out" because 4 or 5 of the big dogs tried to sit under the luxury tax threshold specifically because they were waiting it out until this coming offseason. Those teams will all be back in play and bidding against one another.

 

And to add to that, the players that were freaked out were non-elite, late 20s/early 30s players. Machado is not that. Someone will think he's elite enough. And he's only going to be 26.

 

 

Exactly. Last year guys like JD Martinez, Yu, Arrietta all got less than they expected. But the Machado and Harper's of the world are transcendent players who are always going to get paid. They're not going to have to wait it out and drop their price. My guess is that Machado gets 10 years close to 400 million with an opt out after years 3 and 4.....

 

A strong argument could be made that he's the best player in MLB(Sans Trout because that's not even fair to compare anyone to him). And he'll be a FA at 26...and he's a GG'er at 3rd who has just moved back to the most valuable position on the field? Yeah, I think 40 a year over 10 would get him to sign now...short of that, he'll play the last season and let the bidding commence.