Manny Machado (Part 1)

[Fear The Chorizo]

I think this really doesn't offer a ton to the Orioles as Russell is under control 2021, which means just as the team was maybe getting good he'd be a free agent. All the other guys are mostly lottery ticket types at this point (but I honestly don't know much about any of them - perhaps I'm undervaluing them).

 

The problem from the Cubs' standpoint of a trade like this is basically all the potential top end talent in their minor league system is at the lower levels - so they don't even have a clue whether those three lotto ticket types of prospects will amount to nothing, or whether one of them is a perennial all-star type talent. For the Cubs to make impactful trades at this point, they'll need to include volume-type deals with players from their low minor leagues AND include some of their young major league talent that at least has a few years of team control left. It just further guts their system and leads to making their MLB roster even more expensive with a shorter window to contend, since there won't be any pre-arbitration level talents coming up from within to allow the Cubs to let core players reaching free agency walk.

 

I agree that adding Russell as the potential trade headliner really shouldn't move the needle much from Baltimore's perspective. He's already in salary arbitration and frankly he's regressed as a player since 2016. If I'm Baltimore I don't care that Russell plays SS, since Machado should probably still be at 3B anyways. I'd want a player like Schwarber, Happ, or Almora headlining a Machado deal - and if I'm the Cubs I think this might be the deadline to see what Schwarber might bring in return. He's still a train wreck defensively in LF, and he belongs in the AL as a DH.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Why would Baltimore want Addison Russell? I would think St, Louis makes better sense and they have a great array of young players.

 

I agree, and if STL was interested in bringing in Machado they have the prospects to blow anything the Cubs could offer without gutting their MLB roster out of the water. The Cards wouldn't even necessarily need to include their top level prospects to do so.

[tmwiese55]

Cubs would have every intention of singing him long term and would view it as giving them the upper hand or head start in the negotiation.

 

I'm sure that was the Cubs' thinking with Chapman as well. While he helped get them a Series win, if there were looking to lock him up longterm, that backfired.

 

That maybe true, I don't think it was but of course I don't know for sure. Still, my point was they would have that intention and attempt to do it so it makes more sense, not saying it would work. MKE would have 0 chance at resigning him.

[jerichoholicninja]

Acquiring Machado would be such an anti-Stearns move I don't know why anyone would waste any thought on it.

 

Lorenzo Cain was such an anti-Stearns move too. David Stearns has been a GM for very little time and has essentially never managed a contender before this year. Sometimes I feel people act like we have 20 years of data to look back on and know what he will or won’t do.

 

I doubt we blow up a chunk of the farm for a premium rental...but I can’t say I know Stearns wouldn’t do it ever.

 

The only couple months of team control is why it's an anti-Stearns move. Unless the price drops to peanuts, Davey's not going after him.

[jerichoholicninja]

Cubs would have every intention of singing him long term and would view it as giving them the upper hand or head start in the negotiation.

 

I'm sure that was the Cubs' thinking with Chapman as well. While he helped get them a Series win, if there were looking to lock him up longterm, that backfired.

 

That maybe true, I don't think it was but of course I don't know for sure. Still, my point was they would have that intention and attempt to do it so it makes more sense, not saying it would work. MKE would have 0 chance at resigning him.

 

The way they abused Chapman when they had him tells me they had no intentions of signing him long term.

[OldSchoolSnapper]

The Brewers need to stay away from this and hope Arcia can stop OPS-ing .500. Sabathia was a rental that got them into the playoffs, there is nothing to suggest that Machado will be the difference between them making it or not and he has no chance at all to come back next season. It is too much to give up unless we get a fantasy deal where we do something like only send Santana, but that's not going to happen.

 

I know that run differential doesn't look great for the Brewers but to me that is not a real alarm bell. The team with the best bullpen in the league can afford to play close games, they are playing to their strengths and until that stops working in a big way I don't see a reason for this type of deal.

[Warning Track Power]

While I love the concept of acquiring Machado, I cannot fathom the Brewers paying the price it will take in players and prospects, let alone the cost it would take to retain him. Even if the Brewers were able to re-sign him, allocating $30-$35 million annually to one player makes no sense in the small market the Brewers play in. Add in the fact that the Brewers likely would have to move Arcia, Phillips and Woodruff/Burnes to acquire him and it becomes evident that Machado to Milwaukee isn't going to happen.

[KeithStone53151]

It will be interesting to see what the end price tag is. The Orioles will definitely move him, and this will definitely be a bidding war situation. The best case scenario for the Orioles is for the Dodgers to get back in the playoff race to some degree, as they are basically a dream matchup on paper for this trade. The Dbacks and Dodgers are probably the most likely suitors, and considering they are in division that could be quite the bidding war. Both teams are fully capable of trumping anything the Cubs can offer, unless they include Baez or Schwarber...which would be a huge mistake for the Cubs in my opinion.

[reillymcshane]

I can actually see Stearns making a move for an elite player like Machado if - come July - we are playing really well, have a good record, and really could use the upgrade at the position. The key is that you don't want some massive overpay, sapping the system of too much talent - especially for a 3-4 rental.

 

The Yelich deal was unique in that it offered long-term control of the guy - at a reasonable price. Acquiring someone like Machado would be a strict rental. I don't think there's any way to dole out $30M+ for a guy - even someone as good as Manny.

 

Again, the situation really has to mesh with the club's situation. The price can't be prohibitive. The need really has to be there. The team really needs to be in a competitive situation. If someone isn't right, then you don't do it.

 

But a 35 HR, .300 hitting SS can transform the character of your lineup - especially if your shortstop is hitting .200.

[reillymcshane]

The best case scenario for the Orioles is for the Dodgers to get back in the playoff race to some degree, as they are basically a dream matchup on paper for this trade. .

And with the NL east looking like a pretty big mediocre-fest - I don't see the Dodgers bowing out any time soon. They are only 3.5 games out - and we are just reaching the 1/3 mark in the season. Plenty of time to get things together. As many have noted, a Dodger-Machado marriage would be perfect for 2018. Dodgers have the need, plus a good system so they can give up the prospects Baltimore wants.

 

I've also said that St. Louis is a dark horse team. They have the prospects to make a deal, and they need his bat.

 

Another team would be Cleveland, who could put Manny at 3B, and shift Ramirez to 2B. That would make a heck of an infield.

[MrTPlush]

Acquiring Machado would be such an anti-Stearns move I don't know why anyone would waste any thought on it.

 

Lorenzo Cain was such an anti-Stearns move too. David Stearns has been a GM for very little time and has essentially never managed a contender before this year. Sometimes I feel people act like we have 20 years of data to look back on and know what he will or won’t do.

 

I doubt we blow up a chunk of the farm for a premium rental...but I can’t say I know Stearns wouldn’t do it ever.

 

The only couple months of team control is why it's an anti-Stearns move. Unless the price drops to peanuts, Davey's not going after him.

 

How do we know Stearns won’t go after him? The zero history of competitive midseasons has has been in charge?

[trwi7]

The Brewers need to stay away from this and hope Arcia can stop OPS-ing .500. Sabathia was a rental that got them into the playoffs, there is nothing to suggest that Machado will be the difference between them making it or not and he has no chance at all to come back next season. It is too much to give up unless we get a fantasy deal where we do something like only send Santana, but that's not going to happen.

 

Sabathia also got us a couple of compensation picks when he left. We get nothing when Machado leaves.

[trwi7]

How do we know Stearns won’t go after him? The zero history of competitive midseasons has has been in charge?

 

The Brewers were in 1st place a week before the deadline last year and only 2.5 GB at the deadline. Count me in as Stearns being highly unlikely to go after Machado unless the price is extremely low. Of course if it's low that means more teams will be in to bump the price right back up.

[PDCBalla]

I think it also should be remembered that Mark A has been quoted as saying that we want to be able to make deals during the season and that they'd be willing to spend outside of their comfort zone if it means putting the team over the top.

 

Would love nothing more than the Cubs to be rumored to be closing in on a deal with Machado and finding out the Brewers swooped in a grabbed him like they did with Quintana last year....as long as it ends up in a ring of course.

[benji]

I understand all the rumors with Machado to the Cubs. The thing is Cubs offense is good. They are second in the league in runs scored playing 4/5 less games than the Brewers. I am not sure that is the direction that team needs to go.

 

 

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[BuckyBrewer61]

I think it also should be remembered that Mark A has been quoted as saying that we want to be able to make deals during the season and that they'd be willing to spend outside of their comfort zone if it means putting the team over the top.

 

Big difference between spending money and spending prospects. I’m sure Mark and David wouldn’t hesitate to pay Machado’s salary this year if the team continues to contend. Losing the players they’d have to send to Baltimore to bring him in for 2-3 months is an entirely different story.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Just curious who are our can’t miss prospects in the minors besides Hiura?

 

Use the prospects you think are going to fall short because they will eventually have zero value.

[JohnBriggs12]

Machado has made it known pretty clearly that he's going to FA market after this year and why wouldn't he? The Cubs aren't going to be able to lock him up before that. He's not taking a home town discount. Period. Besides, the bill is coming for the Cubs in a few years and adding a $35 million a year guy to the fold is going to make retaining their own and staying under the luxury tax limit next to impossible beyond 2021.

[MrTPlush]

Just curious who are our can’t miss prospects in the minors besides Hiura?

 

Use the prospects you think are going to fall short because they will eventually have zero value.

 

This is probably the most overrated Brewers farm I have seen since following the team. Even Hiura is nowhere near a cant miss prospect. After that you have a ton of nice, but not great prospects. A lot of the better guys are really struggling this year. I see a lot of guys who I can be pretty confident will make the majors someday...but the impact they will have is highly questionable.

 

Do I really want to trade 3-4 guys to nab Machado? Not really, but if we are a top team in the MLB I sure won’t blame Stearns for doing it.

[adambr2]

Just curious who are our can’t miss prospects in the minors besides Hiura?

 

Use the prospects you think are going to fall short because they will eventually have zero value.

 

This is probably the most overrated Brewers farm I have seen since following the team. Even Hiura is nowhere near a cant miss prospect. After that you have a ton of nice, but not great prospects. A lot of the better guys are really struggling this year. I see a lot of guys who I can be pretty confident will make the majors someday...but the impact they will have is highly questionable.

 

Do I really want to trade 3-4 guys to nab Machado? Not really, but if we are a top team in the MLB I sure won’t blame Stearns for doing it.

 

Don't agree with the first part at all. First of all they aren't even rated that highly, more middle of the pack. I agree it's not that top heavy but the depth is very solid. Hiura continues to do what he does and Corey Ray is enjoying a breakout, and so was Dubon before he got hurt. Lutz and Erceg have been disappointing but Gatewood is coming around.

 

On the pitching side I don't know how you could ask for any more. Peralta continues to make big strides. Corbin Burnes is every bit the pitching prospect he was coming into the season. Forget about his Colorado Springs numbers. Josh Hader couldn't get guys out in Colorado Springs. His road ERA is 2.70 taking Colorado Springs out of the equation. Supak continues to dominate and if he can make the jump to Biloxi a successful one he's definitely on the map as a legit pitching prospect. Medeiros started out great, struggled recently -- I still think he's destined for a Hader type pen role.

 

I do agree with your last statement, as long as the price tag isn't too insane, from the perspectives of Stearns and Mark A, if you think you can bring a World Series back to Milwaukee this year, I can definitely understand it.

[Jaylyn]

How about a different angle, instead of prospects. Say Davies, Santana and/or Arcia for Machado? All three are still young and could immediately start for the O's? Just spitballing

[wallus]

Davies is a guy I could see moving. He seems to really struggle at Miller Park and is not far from getting expensive.

[adambr2]

Depends, are the Orioles looking for a quick reload, or a full blown rebuild? If they are looking at a lengthy rebuild I doubt they have any interest in 3rd year players like Davies.

[wallus]

Depends, are the Orioles looking for a quick reload, or a full blown rebuild? If they are looking at a lengthy rebuild I doubt they have any interest in 3rd year players like Davies.

 

When is the last time they truly rebuilt?

[bill hAll Star]

I tend to assume the best intentions in people with things. Even knowing that the O's don't like to fully rebuild, I feel like their ownership cannot be stupid enough to try to quickly retool. They have to be looking for rebuild-ish players.