Manny Machado (Part 1)

[phnxcrew]

Also important to remember we have a lot of quality prospects that are eligible for the rule 5 draft this fall. We can't protect them all so it would be wise to try and get some major league value from these guys instead of having teams pluck them for no cost. Here is a list of players eligible (taken from a post in the minor league thread)

 

COLORADO SPRINGS:

 

RHP Tristan Archer

RHP Bubba Derby

RHP Christian Meister (recently-signed former Indians farmhand is technically on the Sky Sox DL, last pitched in affiliated ball in 2016)

LHP Quintin-Torres-Costa

 

BILOXI:

 

IF Blake Allemand

SS Luis Aviles, Jr.

1B Jake Gatewood

RHP Nate Griep

LHP Brad Kuntz

C Carlos Leal (currently on restricted list)

C Max McDowell

LHP Kodi Medeiros

RHP Jon Olczak

RHP Jorge Ortega (would normally be a minor league free agent, but signed a deal through 2019 as he was rehabbing Tommy John)

RHP Luis Ortiz

RHP Jon Perrin

RHP Cody Ponce

RHP Dan Reynolds

RHP Tyler Spurlin (currently on suspended/restricted list)

OF Troy Stokes, Jr.

RHP Trey Supak

RHP Josh Uhen

 

CAROLINA:

 

RHP Phil Bickford

RHP Nattino Diplan

RHP Conor Harber

RHP Alec Kenilvort

LHP Nathan Kirby

LHP Drake Owenby

IF Tucker Neuhaus

RHP Wuilder Rodriguez

OF Joantgel Segovia

RHP Devin Williams

 

WISCONSIN:

 

RHP Rodrigo Benoit

RHP Jose Cuas

OF Jay Feliciano

RHP Nelson Hernandez

RHP Carlos Herrera

IF Gilbert Lara

RHP Michael Petersen

OF Nic Pierre

 

HELENA / MARYVALE:

 

RHP Jesus Brea

RHP Yosmer Leal (60-day DL)

RHP Carlos Luna

 

Wow, I didn't realize that many quality prospects needed protection this year. Yes, they almost have to make at least one large trade, or risk simply losing multiple B prospects.

[Boomer5]

Are we fans of winning a WS or a fan of winning 85-90 games the next few years?

 

If only it was as simple as you make it out to be. Machado guarantees us nothing in terms of winning the division or making a run in the playoffs. Of course I'd like our odds a bit more this season.

 

The Cardinals played to be a ~90 win team for 20 years and won 100+ a few times.

 

They won the World Series in seasons where they had 83 wins and 90 wins.

 

There's an argument to be made that if you get in the playoffs 5 times with pretty good teams, it's better than making it 2 times with great teams.

 

If we think the core we are building is a 90 plus win squad then I wouldn’t be opposed to riding this out and hoping we get hot in October.

 

I’d lock up CC and DJ and make them our LaRussa and Duncan asap.

[bill hAll Star]

Are we fans of winning a WS or a fan of winning 85-90 games the next few years?

 

If only it was as simple as you make it out to be. Machado guarantees us nothing in terms of winning the division or making a run in the playoffs. Of course I'd like our odds a bit more this season.

 

The Cardinals played to be a ~90 win team for 20 years and won 100+ a few times.

 

They won the World Series in seasons where they had 83 wins and 90 wins.

 

There's an argument to be made that if you get in the playoffs 5 times with pretty good teams, it's better than making it 2 times with great teams.

 

If we think the core we are building is a 90 plus win squad then I wouldn’t be opposed to riding this out and hoping we get hot in October.

 

I’d lock up CC and DJ and make them our LaRussa and Duncan asap.

 

I'll add that my personal opinion is that I'd be fine trading some middle-type prospects for Machado (Pillips, Ortiz, etc.)

 

We seem to have the organizational depth, development, and baseball mind (Stearns) to be Cardinals-lite. We probably don't have the payroll or luck/opportunity to do it for 20 years, but we might have a nice 10 year window where we can hopefully make the playoffs 4-6 times.

[trwi7]

Wow, I didn't realize that many quality prospects needed protection this year. Yes, they almost have to make at least one large trade, or risk simply losing multiple B prospects.

 

I think you're being overly dramatic in how many quality prospects are on that list.

[bill hAll Star]

Wow, I didn't realize that many quality prospects needed protection this year. Yes, they almost have to make at least one large trade, or risk simply losing multiple B prospects.

 

I think you're being overly dramatic in how many quality prospects are on that list.

 

Agree. I haven't glossed over the list again in too much detail, but I think after the Yelich trade and some recent clearing on the 40-man that we probably will have only a 1 or 2 prospect overflow, if that.

[Brewer Fever]

One report that the Brewers odds of acquiring Machado have been lowered and the pitchforks are coming out. As I said about a week ago, can't wait until Burnes gives up a run and is castrated for being the reason we don't have Manny.

[PDCBalla]

Again, I think this is going to be a case of the Orioles wanting to make it seem like others have a great offer on the table to try and get the Brewers to overreach. I think the Brewers will offer the same package today as they would at the deadline. Something like Woodruff, Broxton and Carmona. Their offer may not look top shelf now but everyday that passes it'll look better because other teams will drop off their offers from what they're offering now due to the lack of time they'll get with Manny. To me, the longer this plays out, the better for the Brewers because I don't see David "blinking" and giving up something he isn't comfortable with giving up.

[bill hAll Star]

Again, I think this is going to be a case of the Orioles wanting to make it seem like others have a great offer on the table to try and get the Brewers to overreach. I think the Brewers will offer the same package today as they would at the deadline. Something like Woodruff, Broxton and Carmona. Their offer may not look top shelf now but everyday that passes it'll look better because other teams will drop off their offers from what they're offering now due to the lack of time they'll get with Manny. To me, the longer this plays out, the better for the Brewers because I don't see David "blinking" and giving up something he isn't comfortable with giving up.

 

Agree with this.

 

There is always the risk of some team truly getting a bit desperate and beating our offer, but if that is the case...so be it.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Wow, I didn't realize that many quality prospects needed protection this year. Yes, they almost have to make at least one large trade, or risk simply losing multiple B prospects.

 

I think you're being overly dramatic in how many quality prospects are on that list.

 

I think if the Brewers were to leave that entire list unprotected, there might be a dozen names that stood the chance of being picked in the Rule 5 draft. Realistically, there are probably at least 6 40-man roster spots that could easily be given to half those dozen simply by getting rid of guys like Asher, Miley, Kraatz, Perez, Wilkerson, Orf, etc...so then you could prioritize getting guys like Modeiros, Kirby, Ortiz, Gatewood, Stokes, Williams, and a few other talented arms added relatively easily. The problem with adding so many prospects who still need developing to the 40-man is it really hamstrings MLB active roster flexibility (unless you have no care about when MLB service time starts for players)

 

Their situation isn't as dire as it was looking on the 40 man protection front prior to the Yelich trade, and I'd expect any trades made between now and then to make it even less of a factor. That being said, it's not like the system looks at all like what Houston's did a few years back when they were including top 100 guys left and right in trades because they were littered all over their system and more talented players were forcing their way up through the ranks. Houston was so loaded a few years ago that they had to make trades so they'd get some value out of those prospects before Rule 5 drafts came around. They STILL have a bunch of quality in their system despite all the trades and many graduations to the MLB club.

[adambr2]

Again, I think this is going to be a case of the Orioles wanting to make it seem like others have a great offer on the table to try and get the Brewers to overreach. I think the Brewers will offer the same package today as they would at the deadline. Something like Woodruff, Broxton and Carmona. Their offer may not look top shelf now but everyday that passes it'll look better because other teams will drop off their offers from what they're offering now due to the lack of time they'll get with Manny. To me, the longer this plays out, the better for the Brewers because I don't see David "blinking" and giving up something he isn't comfortable with giving up.

 

Agree with this.

 

There is always the risk of some team truly getting a bit desperate and beating our offer, but if that is the case...so be it.

 

If our offer is Woodruff + Broxton + Carmona is our best offer, not that it is a bad one but I doubt it's the best one out there. I also doubt it's good enough to end up being an accepted offer. Maybe if you substitute Santana or Phillips for Broxton.

 

I would say it's highly likely Woodruff has been in trade talks this week. Doesn't seem to be any other reason that he hasn't worked since 7/2. Even if they had planned to save him for the doubleheader he could have had one start since then.

[bill hAll Star]

I didn't really mean that offer verbatim. But I agree with the fact that our offer is out there and some of this "the Yankees are now in the lead!" stuff is press release bluffing put out there by the O's.

 

I think Stearns has an offer and will basically leave it as is. If the O's like it, they'll take it. If not, we'll keep our players back.

[Eye Black]

I think the Brewers will offer the same package today as they would at the deadline.

I think there is some truth to that. One take away I've had from reading the proverbial "tea leaves" surrounding marquee trades the Brewers were rumored to be involved in over the past year (i.e. Quintana, Gray, Yelich) as well as free agent negotiations (i.e. Swarzak this past off-season) is that the Brewers front office appears to place what they believe is a proper valuation for the trade target or free agent, and they don't appear willing to deviate much from that initial determination. I obviously don't know these things for certain, but I get the sense they don't engage in escalating an offer based on the actions of other teams.

[reillymcshane]

I think the Brewers will offer the same package today as they would at the deadline.

I think there is some truth to that. One take away I've had from reading the proverbial "tea leaves" surrounding marquee trades the Brewers were rumored to be involved in over the past year (i.e. Quintana, Gray, Yelich) as well as free agent negotiations (i.e. Swarzak this past off-season) is that the Brewers front office appears to place what they believe is a proper valuation for the trade target or free agent, and they don't appear willing to deviate much from that initial determination. I obviously don't know these things for certain, but I get the sense they don't engage in escalating an offer based on the actions of other teams.

I totally agree with you. Last year, the club refused to improve on offers from Quintana and Gray. The merits of those decisions aside, it demonstrates that they put a price on a guy, and don't deviate much from the valuation. I'm good with that. If we don't get a certain guy, I'm not going to freak out. It only means we keep our assets for later use. Again, that's fine with me.

[paul253]

Regardless of what happens with Machado the Brewers need to do something. We can’t go two years in a row standing pat as everyone else around us gets better.

[clancyphile]

One report that the Brewers odds of acquiring Machado have been lowered and the pitchforks are coming out. As I said about a week ago, can't wait until Burnes gives up a run and is castrated for being the reason we don't have Manny.

 

I was intrigued for a bit by Machado, But when there's just a few month's rental, and the price includes Burnes...

 

I'd rather just call up Hiura, even if it means starting his clock, and use him as our middle-IF boost.

 

There are other options out there, like Escobar, Dozier, and Castro who will be cheaper in terms of players.

[reillymcshane]

One report that the Brewers odds of acquiring Machado have been lowered and the pitchforks are coming out. As I said about a week ago, can't wait until Burnes gives up a run and is castrated for being the reason we don't have Manny.

That's pleasant.

 

I, for one, will be happy if the team doesn't over pay for Machado (or any player). And I don't think anyone will blame Burnes for something he has no control over. Stearns and the front office? Sure, but not Burnes.

 

As for pitchforks. I really don't see people freaking out. Sure there will be a few people who scream loudly and often, but whatever. But I honestly think most people on this site understand the organization's philosophy.

[reillymcshane]

Regardless of what happens with Machado the Brewers need to do something. We can’t go two years in a row standing pat as everyone else around us gets better.

I would argue the addition of Walker and Swarzak last season was pretty meaningful for Milwaukee. But I understand the sentiment. People want us to improve. I think something will happen in the coming weeks. What that is? Who knows.

[adambr2]

Not surprisingly, the update from Krasnik contradicts the earlier report of the Brewers "fading".

 

There's a new Manny Machado rumor every day, but people I talk to still see the #Dodgers and #Brewers as the best fits. They have the best mix of prospect talent, need and the motivation to make this particular deal. We'll see.

 

The more this goes on the more I think the O's are going to take this right down to a day or two of the deadline.

[MrTPlush]

Why are Stearns and the Brewers always invincible to increasing an offer? I always see “Stearns is going to put his best offer and not increase it” or along those lines. How do we know the Brewers offer today will be the same at the deadline? I’d venture to say that is entirely false almost every time. If you are still in negotiations weeks later I would bet the offer has changed.

 

No GM ever just throws his best offer out there. That’s not how it works, there are negotiations. Eventually you win the bidding war or you hit your limit. Do we honestly think the Yelich deal was a one offer deal? That was surely a full blown bidding war Stearns made the Brewers win.

 

I don’t see why Stearns can’t end up on top again with Machado just like Yelich.

[Eye Black]

The latest from Ken Rosenthal:

 

#Orioles have ramped up background work on #Phillies prospects, responding to Phils’ increased interest in Machado, sources tell The Athletic. Phils won’t move RHP Sixto Sanchez but are willing to trade from SP depth from Low A to AAA. RHP Adonis Medina of interest to O’s.

 

It seems like RHP Adonis Medina’s trade value would be similar to that of Luis Ortiz.

[trwi7]

Not surprisingly, the update from Krasnik contradicts the earlier report of the Brewers "fading".

 

There's a new Manny Machado rumor every day, but people I talk to still see the #Dodgers and #Brewers as the best fits. They have the best mix of prospect talent, need and the motivation to make this particular deal. We'll see.

 

The more this goes on the more I think the O's are going to take this right down to a day or two of the deadline.

 

This doesn't contradict anything. He's saying the people he's talked to see the Dodgers (Seager injury) and Brewers (Arcia's offensive ineptness) as the best fits. He doesn't say the Brewers are offering enough to stay in the race.

[adambr2]

Not surprisingly, the update from Krasnik contradicts the earlier report of the Brewers "fading".

 

There's a new Manny Machado rumor every day, but people I talk to still see the #Dodgers and #Brewers as the best fits. They have the best mix of prospect talent, need and the motivation to make this particular deal. We'll see.

 

The more this goes on the more I think the O's are going to take this right down to a day or two of the deadline.

 

This doesn't contradict anything. He's saying the people he's talked to see the Dodgers (Seager injury) and Brewers (Arcia's offensive ineptness) as the best fits. He doesn't say the Brewers are offering enough to stay in the race.

 

My whole point is/was that nothing reported either way makes it appear either more or less likely that they're going to make a move for him.

[brewmann04]

almost cant wait for the all star game to get done and we can finally see where he lands.

[Brewer Fever]

One report that the Brewers odds of acquiring Machado have been lowered and the pitchforks are coming out. As I said about a week ago, can't wait until Burnes gives up a run and is castrated for being the reason we don't have Manny.

That's pleasant.

 

I, for one, will be happy if the team doesn't over pay for Machado (or any player). And I don't think anyone will blame Burnes for something he has no control over. Stearns and the front office? Sure, but not Burnes.

 

As for pitchforks. I really don't see people freaking out. Sure there will be a few people who scream loudly and often, but whatever. But I honestly think most people on this site understand the organization's philosophy.

 

I'll be glad they didn't give up Burnes in a Machado deal if that's what prevents the deal from going down. I think you're drastically underestimating the capabilities of people here to spew fire in any general direction they can if the Brewers don't make a big enough splash for their tastes.

 

If word breaks that the Brewers could have had Machado if they had been willing to part with Burnes, every run Burnes gives up will bring out the wrath of a few loud folks here who would trade just about any prospect.

[Jenkins5]

Happens, awesome if price = value. If it doesn’t happen, we will survive & still be able to improve roster & compete.

 

Stearns is very strict on value & isn’t one who will exceed what he feels the value of deal is. Getting many years of Yelich for Harrison Diaz and Jordon Yamamoto was worth value. He knows what he feels the value is for Machado for a mere 2 1/2 months. He will not give up more than that. Some will hate it & piss and moan but I like having a GM who is always looking at now & future while knowing he is going to make wise investments.

 

I’m no pro scout nor do I truly know the value & regards our front office has on our prospects but I trust they know what they are doing. Look at how fast our rebuild has been! Missed playoffs by 1 game last year when not even projected to win 70 games & now leading the NL right before AS break....Stearns, Arnold, CC, etc know what they are doing & if we lose out on Machado.... I get we did so for a reason. If it came down to not giving up one of our big 3.... good! Peralta, Burnes, Hiura in no way should be considered for rental. If Machado has 1 1/2 years... pony up but he doesn’t