Manny Machado (Part 1)

[brewmann04]

how many times have the starters went 6 plus innings. Suter is good for a solid 2 times through the rotation, anderson you really never know what your getting when he hits the mound. Miley is a total waste on the mound and the only rated starter is Chachin

[jerichoholicninja]

Starter vs hitter is pretty simple: how many games have we lost because the starting pitching was bad versus how many games have we lost because the offense couldn't do crap? Crappy offense way more.

[brewmann04]

I agree its now looking like the focus should be a bat.

[reillymcshane]

Reports indicate that the Orioles would prefer to send Machado to the National League. Doesn't mean the Yankees or some some other AL team won't offer enough to get the deal done, but all things being equal, Machado is more likely to go to an NL club.

[adambr2]

Reports indicate that the Orioles would prefer to send Machado to the National League. Doesn't mean the Yankees or some some other AL team won't offer enough to get the deal done, but all things being equal, Machado is more likely to go to an NL club.

 

For the Dodgers there is also the matter of the luxury tax that they are determined to stay under.

 

I don't know exactly how close they are to the limit but I know they don't have much breathing room. If they expect the Orioles to pick up most of the remaining 6-7M that Machado is owed this year I would certainly think the Orioles would require a reasonably better return than from someone like say the Brewers who should have no such need to ask the Orioles for money.

[jvrocksaz]

Reports indicate that the Orioles would prefer to send Machado to the National League. Doesn't mean the Yankees or some some other AL team won't offer enough to get the deal done, but all things being equal, Machado is more likely to go to an NL club.

 

I would be mad at this if I was an Orioles fan. The guy is a free agent at the end of the year so there is no stopping him from ultimately ending up on a AL club. Baltimore is out of it this year so it’s not like he will hurt any chances there. They should just get the best deal possible even if it comes from NY or Boston. Plus you would weaken their farm system in the process...

[Oldcity]

Brewers have a top 10 starting rotation in the MLB. I wouldn't say its lacking

 

I read somewhere the other day that they are 26th in quality starts though because they have a hard time going 6 innings. Relying on 4 innings from the bullpen five or six times a week is a recipe for disaster. THe bullpen is going to wear out. Currently they have three of the top ten relievers in innings pitched.

 

Not sure where you're seeing three of the top ten, but Fangraphs has Hader at 14th, Jennings at 15th, and Jeffress at 19th in innings among relievers. And when you sort by appearances, only Jeffress and Jennings are in the top 100. Due to Counsell's strong handling of the bullpen (refusal to throw guys several days in a row, deferring instead to using them for longer stretches each appearance), I don't think the bullpen is at risk of wearing down any more than normal.

 

Pitchers and coaches often refer to being worn out not just by innings, but also by simply getting up in the bullpen (even when they don't come in). The way Counsell uses his pen really limits those types of reps for Brewer relievers.

[Eye Black]

Now that we are just 4 days away, I would be slightly surprised if the Orioles don’t hold on to Machado through Tuesday’s All-Star Game. I don’t necessarily think they should hold on to him because of the All-Star Game, but it’s the Orioles. If that is the case, I will be curious to see how quickly they move him following the game (or if they keep him right up until the deadline).

 

I’ll never forget the 2011 Brewers trade with the Mets for K-Rod being announced just minutes after the AS Game ended. Granted a Machado trade happening immediately after the game would be on a whole different stratosphere.

[paul253]

I think you’re referring to all of major league baseball and I was referring to just the NL. But I don’t see how you can have a team that relies so heavily on their bullpen and claim the rotation is just fine. I’m not saying the offense doesn’t need help too. The talent is there they just need to be more consistent. The rotation is full of overachievers and I’m just worried that they are going to come back to earth one of these days.

[MrTPlush]

Greatly depends on how willing they are to pick up money. A lot of cases teams don’t want to pick up money and can ask for way too to do so. The Brewers of course should have no problem in doing so because we saved money in FA for this exact reason...and it Attanasio who probably doesn’t care about such a small amount when a WS is possible.

 

The NL preference is interesting and hard to believe in my opinion. If they don’t want to deal to the Yankees because they can’t live with the thought of helping them win it all, fine. It think that is pretty dumb, but the entire AL? Wow.

[Eye Black]

For those that can’t get enough Machado speculation...

 

This ESPN article doesn’t include any actual reporting on rumors, but ranks the teams that would benefit the most by acquiring Machado:

Manny Machado's top 12 landing spots

[Madhawk23]

I know the O's have been notorious for making head scratching moves, but I'd have a real hard time believing that they won't just trade Machado for the very best offer that they have on the table. I doubt they insist that he gets traded to an NL team just to ensure that they don't have to play against him these final two months in a completely lost season for them. Like others have said, he'll be a FA this winter and could very easily land with an AL team then as well.

 

I'd agree too that this most likely won't go down until after the AS game. Now, that we are just a few days away from the break, it would seem likely that they'll hold onto him until after the game and then try to trade him right afterwards. I'd have to wonder if the O's are getting the best offers from teams right now, so that they can make their final decision around that time. But then again, it's the O's - so who really knows what they are doing?

[DocLuna7]

I still think that the value for Machado has to be decreasing by the day despite apparently more competition from other potential suitors. Far from being the midway point this season, following the All-Star Game there are only 64 games remaining. If a team wants to reap the max benefits of landing Machado the Orioles have to realize that their window to maximize his trade value has to be closing with every passing day.

[adambr2]

I still think that the value for Machado has to be decreasing by the day despite apparently more competition from other potential suitors. Far from being the midway point this season, following the All-Star Game there are only 64 games remaining. If a team wants to reap the max benefits of landing Machado the Orioles have to realize that their window to maximize his trade value has to be closing with every passing day.

 

I think they're pretty much passed that point now. If they wanted to try to get a better t time based offer, June would have been the time to get that done or at least early July.

 

It's just down to an auction now. Maybe somebody blinks in the next 2 weeks, otherwise the O's just take the best value at the deadline.

[tmwiese55]

There's roughly 2 weeks from ASB to deadline and about 8 weeks left after the deadline. So yea you get 25% more use of him if the deal gets done in the break. That's huge. And the break is the ideal time to get the logistical stuff all done instead of wasting 2-3 days of games with the travel/physical and all that. I think they do it during the break but of course we'll see

[Chicago Here]

Honestly, as much as I want the Brewers to win the World Series, I just don't think the acquisition of Machado alone puts them over the top in 2018. A lineup of Cain-Yelich-Machado-Shaw-Aguilar-Braun/Thames is arguably the best top 6 in baseball but the rotation is still missing the TOR SP in the playoffs.

 

An TOR additional trade is REQUIRED if the Brewers pay the cost to acquire Machado because Machado alone does nothing to improve upon a rotation that is still lacking.

 

 

Brewers have a top 10 starting rotation in the MLB. I wouldn't say its lacking.

Its lacking, if you are wanting to compete in the playoffs. Other than Chacin, Gurrera, Anderson, we have nobody that can pitch to hot hitting teams like the dodgers, astros, yanks, bosox. And it isnt like these 3 can be expected to go thru orders 3 times. Only decent for at most 5 innings. Our BP will be fine when Albers comes back.

 

We gotta pick up machado and give the orioles what they asked for (broxton, arcia, CB). Then pick up an ace that we control thru 2020. That will secure a playoff run for the next few years.

[bill hAll Star]

Honestly, as much as I want the Brewers to win the World Series, I just don't think the acquisition of Machado alone puts them over the top in 2018. A lineup of Cain-Yelich-Machado-Shaw-Aguilar-Braun/Thames is arguably the best top 6 in baseball but the rotation is still missing the TOR SP in the playoffs.

 

An TOR additional trade is REQUIRED if the Brewers pay the cost to acquire Machado because Machado alone does nothing to improve upon a rotation that is still lacking.

 

 

Brewers have a top 10 starting rotation in the MLB. I wouldn't say its lacking.

Its lacking, if you are wanting to compete in the playoffs. Other than Chacin, Gurrera, Anderson, we have nobody that can pitch to hot hitting teams like the dodgers, astros, yanks, bosox. And it isnt like these 3 can be expected to go thru orders 3 times. Only decent for at most 5 innings. Our BP will be fine when Albers comes back.

 

We gotta pick up machado and give the orioles what they asked for (broxton, arcia, CB). Then pick up an ace that we control thru 2020. That will secure a playoff run for the next few years.

 

Yes, I'd rather have deGrom throw 7 innings, but I'm assuming if we make the playoffs it will be games like:

 

Peralta 4, Hader 2, Burnes 1, Jeffress 1, Knebel 1.

 

We're not going to throw Chase Anderson out there and hope he can throw 110 pitches. We're going to bullpen game almost every playoff game. Anderson could start and we'll see how far he gets - but if it's 2 innings and he hits trouble, there are enough off days in between playoff games to heavily mix-and-match.

 

Would I rather have deGrom and then the bullpen? Sure. But the Cardinals and other teams as far back as 10-15 years ago have won like this. And it's becoming even more of a strategy now.

[tmwiese55]

While I generally agree with the notion that having better starters would be ideal for the playoffs and to keep the BP rested now in the season. Obviously we're seeing the negative aspect of the heavy bullpen strategy right now with how taxed they are.

 

But I would point out that come playoff time this issue is a bit relaxed due to the frequent off days. Essentially, a heavy bullpen strategy wouldn't be the worst thing in the playoffs because you can essentially have a fully available pen every single day. Basically the 2011 Cardinals and both KC playoff runs were done this way. In our specific case, I suppose the way Hader is used it might not work for him but come playoffs I'd guess they would be a lot looser with him. Especially since you know that if do you use him two days in a row that an off day is coming the next day so there isn't a long game to be played so to speak.

 

Now, the real question if this can hold up for the whole season. If we can get to Aug 5th though still in the lead and healthy they should be ok due to all the offdays to finish the year plus extended pens in September

[Madhawk23]

I know the O's have been notorious for making head scratching moves, but I'd have a real hard time believing that they won't just trade Machado for the very best offer that they have on the table. I doubt they insist that he gets traded to an NL team just to ensure that they don't have to play against him these final two months in a completely lost season for them. Like others have said, he'll be a FA this winter and could very easily land with an AL team then as well.

 

I'd agree too that this most likely won't go down until after the AS game. Now, that we are just a few days away from the break, it would seem likely that they'll hold onto him until after the game and then try to trade him right afterwards. I'd have to wonder if the O's are getting the best offers from teams right now, so that they can make their final decision around that time. But then again, it's the O's - so who really knows what they are doing?

[JCREW]

I still think that the value for Machado has to be decreasing by the day despite apparently more competition from other potential suitors. Far from being the midway point this season, following the All-Star Game there are only 64 games remaining. If a team wants to reap the max benefits of landing Machado the Orioles have to realize that their window to maximize his trade value has to be closing with every passing day.

 

I think they're pretty much passed that point now. If they wanted to try to get a better t time based offer, June would have been the time to get that done or at least early July.

 

It's just down to an auction now. Maybe somebody blinks in the next 2 weeks, otherwise the O's just take the best value at the deadline.

 

According to some JosephC math (see post back on page 41ish). Machado's surplus value goes down by about 240K for every game he DOESN'T play for his new team. He's already lost nearly $1MM since JosephC posted that. If we wait until the deadline, Ortiz and a lottery ticket might be comparable value.

[TwinsBrewersWorldSeries]

Jim Duquette on MLB has this proposal:

 

Phillips, Ortiz, and Dubon for Machado... ironically, he says it would be the Brewers that might turn down sending 3 top 10 prospects for a rental. I know I'd do that proposal in a heartbeat.

[And That]

Duquette on MLB has this proposal:

Hmmm.

[82brewcrew82]

Duquette on MLB has this proposal:

Hmmm.

I'm probably a little higher on both Dubon and Ortiz than some on here, but..................

[KeithStone53151]

Jim Duquette on MLB has this proposal:

 

Phillips, Ortiz, and Dubon for Machado... ironically, he says it would be the Brewers that might turn down sending 3 top 10 prospects for a rental. I know I'd do that proposal in a heartbeat.

 

I think the Brewers turn that down as well. Dubon is arguably the most valuable player in that trade. I know he's got the knee issue but he was really turning a corner in AAA.

[MrTPlush]

I’d like to see the plan at SS next year if they do that trade.