Manny Machado (Part 1)

[Outlander]

At this stage, I think I'd even take some "made up BS" by either Jim Bowden or HH19! Even if there was zero truth to the rumors, at least it would give us something new to talk about today. Ha.

Brewers will start to retract players made available for Machado if Baltimore extends the waiting period beyond the all star break.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

At this stage, I think I'd even take some "made up BS" by either Jim Bowden or HH19! Even if there was zero truth to the rumors, at least it would give us something new to talk about today. Ha.

Brewers will start to retract players made available for Machado if Baltimore extends the waiting period beyond the all star break.

 

LOL ... I could have told you that, with NO inside info.

[FVBrewerFan]

Well you guys wanted more baseless rumors. Now Stearns may be going to the Mets.

[SoCalBrewfan]

I think some are undervaluing the improvement Machado brings to the lineup.

 

Some probably are, and others might be overvaluing it. I'm sure the team has been very quantitative about this as well as their prospect valuation. Everything I've seen about Stearns suggests that he knows how much value he expects and is willing to give up in a deal.

 

What's the best case scenario? With under 70 games to play, Machado might be worth 2.5 WAR for the rest of the season, if you prorate his first half. This is his best offense and worst defense ever, so you might expect some regression in each to come out in the wash. (FWIW, 2.3-2.6 WAR are the estimates at fan graphs). In about the same number of games, Arcia was negative, so that would suggest a three win swing if Arcia were being replaced by Machado.

 

But of course it doesn't seem likely that they would settle for Arcia going forward without some real signs of improvement. Miller and Saladino have both been above replacement level, .7 fWAR in about 40 games. For the remaining 70 games, expecting some regression, but with the ability to ride the hot hand, maybe you'd expect somewhere like 0.5 WAR from the pair? Machado might then lead to a 2 win swing. That's quick and dirty figuring but probably about right. I would honestly guess that most fans would put the number higher. And of course we have to pay Machado's salary in addition to whatever prospect value is sacrificed. An average back end top 100 pitching prospect is worth about 3 wins (with a big error bar), and of course works for cheap so on average has surplus value. Baltimore needs to recover at least the value of a comp pick or they're better off holding Machado.

 

Balanced against the value proposition of course is that there is a very good chance that two wins will make a difference in the NL this year, possibly the difference between hosting a division series and a one game wild card playoff. Last year Stearns seems to have held to his value calculations and nibbled at the rental market, making cheap deals for Walker and Swarzak, and the Brewers finished six games behind. I am curious to see how much the sense of opportunity will impact his choices this time around.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Well you guys wanted more baseless rumors. Now Stearns may be going to the Mets.

 

LOL, I love how Mr. Ford turned a very speculative "could be" into "is". Apparently context and accuracy is not important in the baseball blog world. It's all about views and clicks. I'm sure he'll say he's just "relaying a report" too.

 

Um, no, that's not how it works.

[tmwiese55]

Another difference between this year and last IMO would be that the Dodgers and Nats are not sitting there as dominant forces come playoff time like they were last year. Cubs of course are still there, but last year you had all 3 instead of one. Basically, things seem much more wide open come playoff time than they did last year. Plus, our team is just better with the additions of Cain, Yelich, and Jesus going up like 3 levels.

[jonescm128]

This was just tweeted from Bob Nightengale:

 

"The Los Angeles #Dodgers, Milwaukee #Brewers and New York #Yankees have separated themselves from the pack of teams who have inquired about #Orioles All-Star shortstop Manny Machado, with no clear-cut favorite at the moment."

 

So pretty much nothing new...

[82brewcrew82]

This was just tweeted from Bob Nightengale:

 

The Los Angeles #Dodgers, Milwaukee #Brewers and New York #Yankees have separated themselves from the pack of teams who have inquired about #Orioles All-Star shortstop Manny Machado, with no clear-cut favorite at the moment.

I gotta think the Yankees can pretty much dictate the outcome if they want him badly enough.

[MrTPlush]

This was just tweeted from Bob Nightengale:

 

The Los Angeles #Dodgers, Milwaukee #Brewers and New York #Yankees have separated themselves from the pack of teams who have inquired about #Orioles All-Star shortstop Manny Machado, with no clear-cut favorite at the moment.

I gotta think the Yankees can pretty much dictate the outcome if they want him badly enough.

 

Okay, but so can every team. Not like he requires Top 10 prospects in baseball.

[And That]

The Brewers could trade for Machado tonight if they really, really wanted to. I'm sure the Orioles hope one of the interested teams cave and gives them an overwhelming offer for Machado.

 

Doubt that happens, though.

[KeithStone53151]

This was just tweeted from Bob Nightengale:

 

The Los Angeles #Dodgers, Milwaukee #Brewers and New York #Yankees have separated themselves from the pack of teams who have inquired about #Orioles All-Star shortstop Manny Machado, with no clear-cut favorite at the moment.

I gotta think the Yankees can pretty much dictate the outcome if they want him badly enough.

 

I disagree, the Dodgers have more elite players if it came down to an absurd bidding war. I don't understand the reports of the Yankees being involved. They'd be better off targeting Moustakas for 3b or 1b. Getting Machado makes it that much more likely that a couple high end right handed SP make mince meat of their RH heavy lineup...kinda like last year. Plus, where would Machado play? 3b? 1b? DH? A rotation? It doesn't fit for me.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

This was just tweeted from Bob Nightengale:

 

The Los Angeles #Dodgers, Milwaukee #Brewers and New York #Yankees have separated themselves from the pack of teams who have inquired about #Orioles All-Star shortstop Manny Machado, with no clear-cut favorite at the moment.

I gotta think the Yankees can pretty much dictate the outcome if they want him badly enough.

 

Okay, but so can every team. Not like he requires Top 10 prospects in baseball.

 

Yep ... he'll end up going to the team that offers up the highest rated pitching prospect (in Baltimore's eyes ... which doesn't necessarily mean the highest rated Baseball America Top 100 guy)

[PDCBalla]

I don't see how the Orioles can have this drag on past the all-star break. If Manny strains an oblique over the next three weeks and is out until September the Orioles have lost all their ability to land any sort of help for their farm system.

[jonescm128]

Do they Yankees really need offensive help? Why give up prospects for two months of Machado when there are more glaring needs for them? They are going to offer him a big contract in the off-season anyways.

 

Don't pay twice for him. Let us have him.

[PDCBalla]

^ This is my take as well. I think this could be one of those GM tactics where you have one team that wants to get a deal done so you leak it that others have put forth a solid offer trying to get the other to budge. It would not surprise me if the Yankees haven't had anything more than due diligence phone calls with Baltimore.

[Jose Cardenal1]

Considering the Brewers and Dodgers open up the 2nd half against each other, that adds a little intrigue as to whether this gets done at the ASB.

[Madhawk23]

Yeah, this definitely seems like a GM "leak" to try to get one of these three teams (or perhaps another team on the outside) to up their offer and get the deal done.

 

It's going to be interesting to see who blinks first here and eventually caves? And how quickly do the O's pull the trigger on their best offer? As has been stated numerous times, MM's value goes down a notch with every game that he plays for the O's this month, as that is one less game that the trading team has with him. You'd think they'd want to get this figured out asap and ask for every teams very best offer by the end of this weekend (if not earlier).

[jonescm128]

Yeah, this definitely seems like a GM "leak" to try to get one of these three teams (or perhaps another team on the outside) to up their offer and get the deal done.

 

It's going to be interesting to see who blinks first here and eventually caves? And how quickly do the O's pull the trigger on their best offer? As has been stated numerous times, MM's value goes down a notch with every game that he plays for the O's this month, as that is one less game that the trading team has with him. You'd think they'd want to get this figured out asap and ask for every teams very best offer by the end of this weekend (if not earlier).

 

Probably wont be until after the ASG...he is the Orioles lone representative and the game is being playing an hour from Baltimore

[madbad2000]

I'm not sure how much that matters. While the game is close, the tickets are fairly expensive and most have been snagged up by Nats fans. Orioles fans know Machado is gone, so not sure how big of a draw it will be to see him get a few ABs during the ASG. And if Orioles fans aren't willing to buy tickets to a normal game to see their players, how many will want to drop a few benjamins for what little of Manny they will get to see.

 

I checked on tickets for HR derby because of Jesus and I'm not going to drop that much for a ticket to the event or the actual game. I'm not even sure about $35 bucks for the Fan Fest event.

[MillerParkSouth]

Peter Angelos is their owner, it matters.

[Warning Track Power]

Honestly, as much as I want the Brewers to win the World Series, I just don't think the acquisition of Machado alone puts them over the top in 2018. A lineup of Cain-Yelich-Machado-Shaw-Aguilar-Braun/Thames is arguably the best top 6 in baseball but the rotation is still missing the TOR SP in the playoffs.

 

An TOR additional trade is REQUIRED if the Brewers pay the cost to acquire Machado because Machado alone does nothing to improve upon a rotation that is still lacking.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

When I previously referred to the O's having no leverage this is what I meant. Their only play is to wait til the deadline and HOPE a team blinks/caves to the pressure. The previous precedent with trades makes me think they won't. The Orioles have no way of demanding more. It's all take it or leave it, so the offers are what they're gonna be. O's gotta sift for the best one. I hope it's us just so I can get some Machado gear lol.

[jonescm128]

Honestly, as much as I want the Brewers to win the World Series, I just don't think the acquisition of Machado alone puts them over the top in 2018. A lineup of Cain-Yelich-Machado-Shaw-Aguilar-Braun/Thames is arguably the best top 6 in baseball but the rotation is still missing the TOR SP in the playoffs.

 

An TOR additional trade is REQUIRED if the Brewers pay the cost to acquire Machado because Machado alone does nothing to improve upon a rotation that is still lacking.

 

 

Brewers have a top 10 starting rotation in the MLB. I wouldn't say its lacking.

[brewmann04]

I rather see them find two contact hitters to get more balance lineup

[paul253]

Brewers have a top 10 starting rotation in the MLB. I wouldn't say its lacking

 

I read somewhere the other day that they are 26th in quality starts though because they have a hard time going 6 innings. Relying on 4 innings from the bullpen five or six times a week is a recipe for disaster. THe bullpen is going to wear out. Currently they have three of the top ten relievers in innings pitched.