Manny Machado (Part 1)

[reillymcshane]

Sorry if this Fangraphs article by Jeff Sullivan has been posted in one of the previous pages in this thread today, but figured it was interesting enough to share: The Precedent for a Manny Machado Trade

 

In summary, Jeff speculates at the end that the Orioles will receive at least one ranked prospect as part of the return for Machado, and that in the case of the Brewers it would likely mean parting with Burnes.

I read this article and thought it was a pretty fair look at the situation. As noted, past trades of this nature have generally netted a club a top 100 type prospect - plus some extras.

 

That could mean Burnes, but also Woodruff or Peralta.

 

However, one thing we can do is offer more of a quantity type package - instead of a deal with a clear 'headliner'. These would be guys who are not necessarily Top 100 type prospects, but are more borderline types.

 

Baltimore, after all, isn't one player away from being good. They need lots and lots of talent. That's why a package of Phillips and Ortiz isn't bad. I see it as offering up two B- prospects instead of one B+ guy. Guys like Ray and Dubon might also fall into this class of player.

 

I've suggested Ortiz, Phillips and Wilkerson - and I still think that is a decent offer. If you need to improve things, perhaps swap out Wilkerson for someone like Ponce. Again, you offer the O's a bag of goodness - three guys that could potentially be on their ML roster within the year - filling positions they desperately need (CF and starting pitching). No, they aren't going to get a top 50 type prospect back. But instead they get a group of guys that can potentially be part of their future.

[SeaBass]

Legitimately curious. If the Orioles asking price stays firm and the Brewers would need to include one of Peralta or Burnes, and they decided they were going to meet that price, would posters here want them to do that for a rental like Machado or go after a controllable guy like Whit Merrifield? By all reports the Royals have been asking for a high return on him.

 

Merrifield obviously doesn't have the power numbers Machado has but he is the kind of guy that would help this team with his bat and be better on defense than Manny. He could bat lead-off, hit 10 to 15 HRs, has positional versatility as a 2B/OF and could fill in at 1B/3B in an emergency, he's another running threat on the bases and he's having a nice OBP season which was a knock against him when discussing him in the off season.

 

I don't know the answer. Manny would be a scary matchup for opposing teams in the middle of our order. He's an elite hitter. I just don't know if his rental status is worth throwing one of our top pitching prospects at.

 

Maybe it's "no" to both. I always felt that if the Brewers were going to trade one of their top pitching prospects it would be for a TOR starting pitcher like deGrom.

[YelichPosse]

Legitimately curious. If the Orioles asking price stays firm and the Brewers would need to include one of Peralta or Burnes, and they decided they were going to meet that price, would posters here want them to do that for a rental like Machado or go after a controllable guy like Whit Merrifield? By all reports the Royals have been asking for a high return on him.

 

Merrifield obviously doesn't have the power numbers Machado has but he is the kind of guy that would help this team with his bat and be better on defense than Manny. He could bat lead-off, hit 10 to 15 HRs, has positional versatility as a 2B/OF and could fill in at 1B/3B in an emergency, he's another running threat on the bases and he's having a nice OBP season which was a knock against him when discussing him in the off season.

 

I don't know the answer. Manny would be a scary matchup for opposing teams in the middle of our order. He's an elite hitter. I just don't know if his rental status is worth throwing one of our top pitching prospects at.

 

Maybe it's "no" to both. I always felt that if the Brewers were going to trade one of their top pitching prospects it would be for a TOR starting pitcher like deGrom.

 

The more I think about the Marlins series and how we could barely get a starter to the 5th ..... and SURE it has worked til NOW... but we really do need a starter that can go 6 consistently, 7 or 8 now and then.... it will end up taking a toll on the pen... makes me want to trade for a TOR over even a bat rental.. but I don't even know any more!

[StearnsFTW]

So you'd rather have Diaz and Yamamoto than Arcia and Ortiz?

 

To steer back to the topic, still hoping the Yankees get Machado. Burnes & Peralta are flat 'nos' from me. Woodruff/Phillips I could live with but that's about it.

 

Edit: That question was for clancyphile.

[tmwiese55]

Regardless if they miss out on Machado, a move of some kind will happen on account of the 40 man Rule 5 protection issues. So at least that's some excitement/action no matter what to look forward to. And this year I expect it to be higher profile than Walker/Swarzak/Miller type things.

[Boomer5]

I don’t see the Orioles wanting Wilkerson or Broxton. Both are way too old for their needs and just aren’t good enough to move the needle on a trade for a guy like Machado who is one of the biggest rental names we’ve seen in awhile.

[Boomer5]

Legitimately curious. If the Orioles asking price stays firm and the Brewers would need to include one of Peralta or Burnes, and they decided they were going to meet that price, would posters here want them to do that for a rental like Machado or go after a controllable guy like Whit Merrifield? By all reports the Royals have been asking for a high return on him.

 

Merrifield obviously doesn't have the power numbers Machado has but he is the kind of guy that would help this team with his bat and be better on defense than Manny. He could bat lead-off, hit 10 to 15 HRs, has positional versatility as a 2B/OF and could fill in at 1B/3B in an emergency, he's another running threat on the bases and he's having a nice OBP season which was a knock against him when discussing him in the off season.

 

I don't know the answer. Manny would be a scary matchup for opposing teams in the middle of our order. He's an elite hitter. I just don't know if his rental status is worth throwing one of our top pitching prospects at.

 

Maybe it's "no" to both. I always felt that if the Brewers were going to trade one of their top pitching prospects it would be for a TOR starting pitcher like deGrom.

 

Merrifield is really good if you’re an analytics guy. 4 WAR plus versatility plus lots of control equals a dream come true for today’s game.

[JackNicholson1974]

Escobar and Dozier for half the price. Villar and some combo of guys like Supak or something like that. Between Dozier and Escobar this year, and Hiura next, we have no need for Villar, IMO, but he is a controllable MI for Minnesota.

[Boomer5]

Villar?

[82brewcrew82]

Second. He’s been really good since last year & manages to just keep getting better! From Wisconsin, okay start then turned it on, kept turning it on in Carolina, and manages to keep dealing! Lookin through numbers, hard to find real reasons he’d be overrated.

I'm not saying you all are wrong. I'm just not as sold. The numbers do look good but that is my issue. There is a ton more to it than just the numbers. If I had a good, recent scouting report I might feel differently.

[jjfanec]

I think some are undervaluing the improvement Machado brings to the lineup. I know Saladino has had his moments but he isn't great. Machado would allow Miller to start at 2b and Saladino, Perez and Villar to be bats off the bench. With the way thames is swinging the bat and with shaw turning a corner the last week this lineup 1-5 is great. Put Machado in there and Miller more frequently this lineup goes 7 deep with catcher being the one bad spot.

 

I get not wanting to give up Burnes. That would be crazy in my mind. However guys like Ortiz and Phillips should definitely be on the table.

 

I would be fine grabbing a guy like Dozier who I think would do well in Milwaukee but we still would have a huge issue at SS. Dozier could allow us to also pursue a pitcher which I do think is something we need.

[82brewcrew82]

It isn't Manny or bust here folks. There are other options available.

 

Having said that, I still feel like the Brewers have the best offer on the table, it just isn't what the Orioles want. If the prospect packages being talked about were actually being offered, he'd have been traded by now.

[adambr2]

It isn't Manny or bust here folks. There are other options available.

 

No, it's not and yes, there are, but there aren't any other Manny Machado types available.

[TURBO]

We may as well go for somebody interesting like an Archer or Realmuto and unload our top guys for long term upgrades.

 

 

Please explain why you think Archer is a long term upgrade.

 

His ERA has jumped the past 3 years. His WHIP has gone the same direction, UP! Hits per 9 innings, yup, UP!

 

His ERA is 4.41 and WHIP is at 1.381 this season. Strike-outs per 9 innings is more than 2 less than last year.

 

He walks a ton of guys, and gives up a LOT of home runs.

 

I think he is trending down, and not any kind of an upgrade. For what he would cost, it's a hard pass for me.

 

I don't find him to be interesting or a long term upgrade.

[jjfanec]

It isn't Manny or bust here folks. There are other options available.

 

Having said that, I still feel like the Brewers have the best offer on the table, it just isn't what the Orioles want. If the prospect packages being talked about were actually being offered, he'd have been traded by now.

 

Who are other as? Escobar? The Brewers could turn to 2b but SS is the real weak spot or catcher. I like that Nottingham doesn't look lost at the plate

[KeithStone53151]

I'm a bit surprised by the lack of anything today. No new rumors or speculation from the media, at least not that I've seen.

[YelichPosse]

We may as well go for somebody interesting like an Archer or Realmuto and unload our top guys for long term upgrades.

 

 

Please explain why you think Archer is a long term upgrade.

 

His ERA has jumped the past 3 years. His WHIP has gone the same direction, UP! Hits per 9 innings, yup, UP!

 

His ERA is 4.41 and WHIP is at 1.381 this season. Strike-outs per 9 innings is more than 2 less than last year.

 

He walks a ton of guys, and gives up a LOT of home runs.

 

I think he is trending down, and not any kind of an upgrade. For what he would cost, it's a hard pass for me.

 

I don't find him to be interesting or a long term upgrade.

 

I will say what i meant was he was a better play THAN a rental.

 

Looking in depth at his numbers, in his last 8 starts, he gave up a home run in one start - at Baltimore where he gave up 3. He is a prime candidate to really take a step up by leaving the AL East.

 

In the second half of his starts this year, he has been getting more ground balls.. and equal to or greater than the fly balls allowed, which tells me he may be figuring out whatever mechanical flaw led to his BAAAAD April.

 

Put some of these pieces together, with the fact at this point in time he may be available for LESS than he has ever been, and with our pitching coach / scouting / development team that has done a fantastic job maximizing guys with so - so talent.... imagine what they could do with a guy of his talent level. Just saying some food for thought.

[statman0007]

According to Jon Heyman's article today Zach Britton was throwing 96-98 mph in a recent appearance with good movement on his sinker. If that's the case he may be more than just a throw-in with Machado.

[Madhawk23]

I'm a bit surprised by the lack of anything today. No new rumors or speculation from the media, at least not that I've seen.

 

It sounds like you are having the same issues that I'm having. I keep hopping on Twitter hoping for something new, and become instantly disappointed when there is nothing there! Then, I try to remind myself that it is only July 12 and we still have two and a half weeks until the trade deadline. Man, this might be the longest 2+ weeks ever!

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I'm a bit surprised by the lack of anything today. No new rumors or speculation from the media, at least not that I've seen.

 

It sounds like you are having the same issues that I'm having. I keep hopping on Twitter hoping for something new, and become instantly disappointed when there is nothing there! Then, I try to remind myself that it is only July 12 and we still have two and a half weeks until the trade deadline. Man, this might be the longest 2+ weeks ever!

 

I know! Where is Jim Bowden to Tweet some made-up garbage when you need him? LOL

 

That Blue Crew Ball article saying the Brewers offered Burnes still shows up on my Yahoo news feed, and it bothers me every time I see it. I suppose that is my fault for having Yahoo as my launch page.

[KeithStone53151]

I'm a bit surprised by the lack of anything today. No new rumors or speculation from the media, at least not that I've seen.

 

It sounds like you are having the same issues that I'm having. I keep hopping on Twitter hoping for something new, and become instantly disappointed when there is nothing there! Then, I try to remind myself that it is only July 12 and we still have two and a half weeks until the trade deadline. Man, this might be the longest 2+ weeks ever!

 

I know! Where is Jim Bowden to Tweet some made-up garbage when you need him? LOL

 

That Blue Crew Ball article saying the Brewers offered Burnes still shows up on my Yahoo news feed, and it bothers me every time I see it. I suppose that is my fault for having Yahoo as my launch page.

 

For better or worse, I've checked that blog the last few days for HH19 tidbits. He has been providing HH19 stuff(or so he says), and it's all generic...nothing to see.

 

I saw that article title also, that's about as irresponsible as it gets. Pure click bait, and the media wonders why nobody trusts anything they read anymore...

[reillymcshane]

 

I know! Where is Jim Bowden to Tweet some made-up garbage when you need him? LOL

 

That Blue Crew Ball article saying the Brewers offered Burnes still shows up on my Yahoo news feed, and it bothers me every time I see it. I suppose that is my fault for having Yahoo as my launch page.

That was based on Jim Bowden's silly tweet.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

I know! Where is Jim Bowden to Tweet some made-up garbage when you need him? LOL

 

That Blue Crew Ball article saying the Brewers offered Burnes still shows up on my Yahoo news feed, and it bothers me every time I see it. I suppose that is my fault for having Yahoo as my launch page.

That was based on Jim Bowden's silly tweet.

 

I know, but that didn't stop the writer from turning it into a "news" story. Headline and first sentence completely misleading and irresponsible.

[Madhawk23]

At this stage, I think I'd even take some "made up BS" by either Jim Bowden or HH19! Even if there was zero truth to the rumors, at least it would give us something new to talk about today. Ha.

[brewerfan82]

Yeah Bowden literally wrote that the players had been "discussed" and the writer somehow turned it into multiple references of the Brewers "offering" those players in his article. Huuuuuuuuge difference, misleading, irresponsible, and just plain incorrect.