Manny Machado (Part 1)

[Boomer5]

Sorry if this Fangraphs article by Jeff Sullivan has been posted in one of the previous pages in this thread today, but figured it was interesting enough to share: The Precedent for a Manny Machado Trade

 

In summary, Jeff speculates at the end that the Orioles will receive at least one ranked prospect as part of the return for Machado, and that in the case of the Brewers it would likely mean parting with Burnes.

 

It is too bad we won't be getting Manny Machado then

Yes. I'm hoping this is all just paper talk getting lathered up with no other deadline hot topics to report on.

 

Moving Peralta, Burnes, or even a Nottingham for a rental seems 100% something Stearns would not do.

 

Nottingham is not stopping us from getting Machado. I can’t imagine where he would be a headliner for any meaningful trade, and certainly not for Machado.

 

We have no idea what Stearns will do or not do. His body of work isn’t extensive.

[Boomer5]

Even if Nottingham is just OK (maybe even slightly less) he could be the answer at C and I think they will take the time to find that out. No way I trade Burnes. Peralta I might be able to be talked in to. I like Burnes and Woodruff better and I may even like Ortiz better. That is not saying Peralta sucks or his value should be taken lightly. I'm just saying if I have to part with one, it might just be Peralta.

 

I agree with you. Peralta has looked fine since being called up, but if I had to pick any of the three between him, Burnes and Woodruff to trade, I'd pick Peralta. He'd be a solid sell-high guy due to his nice start to his career.

 

It’s funny how one start moves the needle that much on a guy. He would have been untouchable to most everyone here 24 hours ago.

 

The question on Peralta is what do we have in him? The numbers say he is our ace but the stuff and the profile says he won’t be a long term rotation piece. How long can a delivery that hides the ball well succeed at the MLB level? That’s a real question

 

For now I’d put him in the Junior category where his performance has been outstanding but in terms of trade value he’d go at a discount to his numbers.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Even if Nottingham is just OK (maybe even slightly less) he could be the answer at C and I think they will take the time to find that out. No way I trade Burnes. Peralta I might be able to be talked in to. I like Burnes and Woodruff better and I may even like Ortiz better. That is not saying Peralta sucks or his value should be taken lightly. I'm just saying if I have to part with one, it might just be Peralta.

 

I agree with you. Peralta has looked fine since being called up, but if I had to pick any of the three between him, Burnes and Woodruff to trade, I'd pick Peralta. He'd be a solid sell-high guy due to his nice start to his career.

 

It’s funny how one start moves the needle that much on a guy. He would have been untouchable to most everyone here 24 hours ago.

 

The question on Peralta is what do we have in him? The numbers say he is our ace but the stuff and the profile says he won’t be a long term rotation piece. How long can a delivery that hides the ball well succeed at the MLB level? That’s a real question

 

For now I’d put him in the Junior category where his performance has been outstanding but in terms of trade value he’d go at a discount to his numbers.

 

My needle hasn't moved. I've never been a big Peralta guy. Perhaps he could be a long-term piece, but the track record of small starters without electric fastballs hasn't been great. That said, I'd hate to give him up in a trade for Machado. I'd hate to give up any potential 2018 major league contributor, actually, but that seems to be what the Orioles are looking for.

[JosephC]

Personally I wouldn't want to see the Brewers part with Burnes. The only good thing I can see in Burnes going to Baltimore is that it shouldn't take much more than just him. If the Brewers take Burnes and Peralta off the table (which IMO they absolutely should for only a rental), then Machado likely costs them two top 10 prospects OR a top 10 prospect and 2 more in the 11-20 range....but if it's Burnes then the package is probably just Burnes and another non-top 30 prospect. Sometimes it's better to have the quantity rather than the quality.

 

The later it gets in the process, the more I like the team and the less inclined I am in wanting to see them make a big move. I look at the standings and not only are they in a playoff spot, but they still have the best record in the NL. Definitely don't think there should be any motivation in overpaying for any rental.

[clancyphile]

Personally I wouldn't want to see the Brewers part with Burnes. The only good thing I can see in Burnes going to Baltimore is that it shouldn't take much more than just him. If the Brewers take Burnes and Peralta off the table (which IMO they absolutely should for only a rental), then Machado likely costs them two top 10 prospects OR a top 10 prospect and 2 more in the 11-20 range....but if it's Burnes then the package is probably just Burnes and another non-top 30 prospect. Sometimes it's better to have the quantity rather than the quality.

 

The later it gets in the process, the more I like the team and the less inclined I am in wanting to see them make a big move. I look at the standings and not only are they in a playoff spot, but they still have the best record in the NL. Definitely don't think there should be any motivation in overpaying for any rental.

 

Same here.

 

If they need a middle-infield boost, just call up Hiura to handle second, and work out a deal for Starlin Castro to handle short for us. Castro shouldn't cost more than Arcia and a lottery ticket. Plus he's under contract through 2019, with an option for 2020.

[FVBrewerFan]

So the last few days Peralta was untouchable as a trade piece. If anyone disagreed with that, I don't remember anyone saying it (maybe one person, idk.) Then he has a somewhat tough outing last night and post after post says yea, go ahead and deal him. Really?

 

He got through 3 innings of no-hit ball. Threw a lot of pitches to do so? Sure. Then in the 4th, a ball is hit to RCF when Cain was shaded way to LCF. Just bad luck, Cain still almost caught it. Then he really got squeezed by the ump and ran out of gas after having to throw about 90 pitches in the 4th. Point being, things could have easily been different in the 4th, and he goes on to put up 6 solid innings again. Since that didn't happen, now he's not as valuable as Woodruff or Ortiz.

 

Well, my opinion hasn't changed. His delivery and stuff make him a really good SP today, and as he matures will be even better. Has he out up 7 inning starts with only 1 or 2 runs every outing? No. Neither has anyone else in this rotation. I'm not giving him up for a rental when we can have a rotation of Hader, Peralta, Burnes at the top with guys like Brown, Ortiz, Woodruff, etc. in the mix if they're still here.

[Boomer5]

I’ve had Burnes going for Machado because Cespedes required Fulmer and Machado is better than Cespedes.

 

As for Peralta I’m really torn on his value. He has been our ace so how do you trade him when we can’t replace him? But how do you expect a short rhp without ace stuff to be able to sustain his performance?

[Fear The Chorizo]

Stearns has set the precedent thus far for being willing to trade prospects he has acquired from earlier trades, but I don't believe he has actually traded one of his draft picks as of yet - for that reason I feel like Burnes, Hiura, Ray, Brown, etc. aren't going anywhere.

 

Peralta, Ortiz, Nottingham, Stokes, Gatewood, Phillips, and others would be among the names of guys Stearns' limited record to date would be more inclined to move. I tried looking into Ortiz's appearance yesterday that only lasted 3 innings and 49 pitches - nothing on the injury front and while he is pitching in the futures game Sunday, I'm not sure that alone should prompt a designed short start for him given he really should be trying to ramp up his innings. The short appearance could've been been by design for a scout or two to get a good in-person look at him before putting him on the shelf while trade discussions involving him progress.

 

Adding my 2 cents to the Peralta discussion - to me he's not untouchable, but I really want nothing to do with trading him for any rental. If he headlines a Realmuto package or perhaps a package that brings back a controllable and better unicorn rotation arm (DeGrom, Manaea, etc), I'm ok with it - but I don't see those type of trades happening this deadline, either.

[JohnBriggs12]

All signs are pointing to this happening in a few days. Baltimore is acting like they have an offer they'll accept and are checking on every possible interested team out there one more time to see if they'll make an offer to leapfrog the one the Brewers made. Meanwhile Brewers are planting stories about interest elsewhere to insure Baltimore doesn't waiver on the timing which I'm sure the Brewers have said would have to be complete by the AS break. Brewers letting Lopez bat with man in scoring position rather than risk using Burnes in back to back games? That sealed it for me. He's gone.

 

Losing Burnes would hurt, and eventually Arcia could come back to haunt them, but it's not like Burnes is the only pitching prospect they have or that their current rotation has a bunch of guys who need to be replaced right away. The lineup after the 5th spot (and sometimes the 4th spot) hasn't produced anywhere near enough to hold off the Cubs. The price is high, but look what the Brewers got for Gomez just a few years ago. It's the price of poker and who knows, maybe Attanasio's got the cash in reserve to make Manny a Brewer beyond this year. A long shot dream to be sure, but they are nowhere near the luxury tax threshold unlike many of his expected suitors.

[Boomer5]

Ortiz with 49 pitches last night. If the goal was to showcase him that didn’t go well.

 

Is it conditioning? The guy just can’t seem to make his performance match his stuff.

[Point Beer Is Best]

If they need a middle-infield boost, just call up Hiura to handle second, and work out a deal for Starlin Castro to handle short for us. Castro shouldn't cost more than Arcia and a lottery ticket. Plus he's under contract through 2019, with an option for 2020.

 

Did Arcia kick your dog? Why are some posters so eager to dump him?

[Point Beer Is Best]

Ortiz with 49 pitches last night. If the goal was to showcase him that didn’t go well.

 

Is it conditioning? The guy just can’t seem to make his performance match his stuff.

 

 

His last three starts have been 51, 54, and 49 pitches. He hasn't pitched more than 4 innings per outing since April, so I'm not sure if he's in a piggyback situation with another starter.

[FVBrewerFan]

Ortiz with 49 pitches last night. If the goal was to showcase him that didn’t go well.

 

Is it conditioning? The guy just can’t seem to make his performance match his stuff.

 

 

His last three starts have been 51, 54, and 49 pitches. He hasn't pitched more than 4 innings per outing since April, so I'm not sure if he's in a piggyback situation with another starter.

 

People talk about how Peralta is small, so not much of a track record of that type of pitcher being really effective as a starter long term. Yet he has been. But nobody talks about the track record of pitchers who don't have massive k rates in the minors. Ortiz does not miss bats, this year his k rate is a little over 9 but we'll see how that ends up- it was even lower than that last year.

[And That]

Ortiz with 49 pitches last night. If the goal was to showcase him that didn’t go well.

 

Is it conditioning? The guy just can’t seem to make his performance match his stuff.

The goal was not to showcase him and his outing had nothing to do with conditioning. The goal was to have Ortiz make 50 or so pitches. Which he did. Full stop. Insinuating anything beyond that is unfounded.

 

Ortiz has been held to 50 pitches his past three starts (check the game logs), presumably because:

 

a)He's going to max out at around 120-130 innings this year;

b)He's likely going to pitch in the Arizona Fall League, which could be 20-30 innings of work, meaning he may have less than 100 innings to work with while pitching for the Shuckers; and,

c)Biloxi is going to the Southern League playoffs, and they could use innings from him there as well.

 

So if you assume he's going to throw 120 innings, subtract 20 for the AFL, and subtract 15 for the Southern League playoffs, that leaves Ortiz 85 innings for the regular season. He's currently at 52. We just passed the midway point of the season. The 50 pitch count limit is really just the result of that math.

 

There's no deeply disappointing reason he made just 50 pitches last night. Just math.

[JCREW]

I'd hate to give up any potential 2018 major league contributor, actually, but that seems to be what the Orioles are looking for.

 

This part of the whole mess baffles me. The Orioles have a farm system that would make an onion cry. Their offense is not far above replacement level, aside from Manny. Their pitching WAR is incrementally better than their batting WAR. Meanwhile NYY and BOS have super teams that should last for at least a few years. Why are they seeking current contributors? It doesn't make sense. I hope our upper management never falls into this mindset.

[JCREW]

There's no deeply disappointing reason he made just 50 pitches last night. Just math.

 

I think that most of the middle schoolers I teach would call math disappointing.

[And That]

There's no deeply disappointing reason he made just 50 pitches last night. Just math.

 

I think that most of the middle schoolers I teach would call math disappointing.

Touche.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I'll believe Ortiz hits 130 innings when I see it, and I will gladly eat crow if it winds up happening because that would mean he's taken a big next step in his development. That being said, based on his minor league career thus far I'd much rather they let Ortiz have a normal starter's workload and have to shut him down in August should he actually get to 120-130IP instead of projecting a couple dozen 3-4 inning outings between mid May and October. That appears to have been their initial plan when he opened the season until he injured his hamstring 4 starts in. He's been in the minors long enough hovering around 90-100IP, if he's healthy and effective get him the innings while there are plenty to be had and sort out minor league playoffs / AFL innings later.

 

Ortiz has basically been a 3-4 inning pitcher since his late April hamstring injury - it might not be conditioning-related, but what's more concerning to me is he's still finding a way to rack up high pitch count outings over these shorter stints.

 

Sorry, this is getting off topic aside from the fact that I think Ortiz would be a possible trade candidate for Machado.

[Oldcity]

All signs are pointing to this happening in a few days. Baltimore is acting like they have an offer they'll accept and are checking on every possible interested team out there one more time to see if they'll make an offer to leapfrog the one the Brewers made. Meanwhile Brewers are planting stories about interest elsewhere to insure Baltimore doesn't waiver on the timing which I'm sure the Brewers have said would have to be complete by the AS break. Brewers letting Lopez bat with man in scoring position rather than risk using Burnes in back to back games? That sealed it for me. He's gone.

 

1. The signs also indicate the Yankees are now most likely to get Machado.

 

2. Using Burnes one day after he pitched two innings doesn't indicate he's gone in any way. It indicates they value his long term health and durability, just like they have with any young pitcher.

[reillymcshane]

Regarding Peralta, I'm reluctant to trade a guy who has shown signs of being something pretty special.

 

Peralta has dominated at times (see the game against KC late last month), and then been bad other days (see yesterday's game). If he can improve his control and consistency, he could be a really good starter - despite his limited repertoire. That's why I'd hate to give him away in a trade. We don't develop good pitchers very often, and the best way for us to get a good pitcher is to develop them (easier said than done).

 

The kid only just turned 22 last month, and he has put up some great numbers thus far: 37 innings, 50K, 2.65 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 0.964 WHIP. Those are pretty intriguing numbers, even if the sample size is small.

 

Despite yesterday's stinker of an outing, I think Freddy can be essential to this club winning this year (and beyond). The 'good' Freddy is pretty amazing. And as long as we get the 'good' Freddy more than the 'bad' Freddy, I'll take that.

 

If Peralta ever really gets better command of his pitches is a fair question. But we will have to wait and see.

[Point Beer Is Best]

Regarding Peralta, I'm reluctant to trade a guy who has shown signs of being something pretty special.

 

Peralta has dominated at times (see the game against KC late last month), and then been bad other days (see yesterday's game). If he can improve his control and consistency, he could be a really good starter - despite his limited repertoire. That's why I'd hate to give him away in a trade. We don't develop good pitchers very often, and the best way for us to get a good pitcher is to develop them (easier said than done).

 

The kid only just turned 22 last month, and he has put up some great numbers thus far: 37 innings, 50K, 2.65 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 0.964 WHIP. Those are pretty intriguing numbers, even if the sample size is small.

 

Despite yesterday's stinker of an outing, I think Freddy can be essential to this club winning this year (and beyond). The 'good' Freddy is pretty amazing. And as long as we get the 'good' Freddy more than the 'bad' Freddy, I'll take that.

 

If Peralta ever really gets better command of his pitches is a fair question. But we will have to wait and see.

 

Even Peralta's "bad" outings have basically been isolated to single innings within those games (the 4th inning yesterday and the 5 run 1st inning against the Reds last week).

[JackNicholson1974]

I was excited about the prospect of getting Machado, but Im over it at this point. Let the Yankees have him, its where he wants to be anyway.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

1. The signs also indicate the Yankees are now most likely to get Machado.

 

2. Using Burnes one day after he pitched two innings doesn't indicate he's gone in any way. It indicates they value his long term health and durability, just like they have with any young pitcher.

 

1. What signs? Just because it came out yesterday that they are interested, it makes it likely they will trade for him? Granted, it often seems like "what the Yankees want, the Yankees get", but I haven't seen anything indicating that a deal to the Yankees is likely or imminent.

 

2. Agreed. Burnes threw two innings on Tuesday, and while he did that in a rather efficient 25 pitches, there was no way he was going to come back out last night, less than a month into his career as a relief pitcher.

[clancyphile]

If they need a middle-infield boost, just call up Hiura to handle second, and work out a deal for Starlin Castro to handle short for us. Castro shouldn't cost more than Arcia and a lottery ticket. Plus he's under contract through 2019, with an option for 2020.

 

Did Arcia kick your dog? Why are some posters so eager to dump him?

 

He's a good-field, no-hit shortstop - and I'd rather have some other team overpay him for web gems.

 

Really, I'd have dealt him after 2017, maybe have it be him, Brinson, Harrison, and Ortiz for Starlin Castro and Yelich. Go with Castro at short. Help Miami tank with his sub-.500 OPS.

[YelichPosse]

I was excited about the prospect of getting Machado, but Im over it at this point. Let the Yankees have him, its where he wants to be anyway.

 

This whole last week, discussion, and rumors have me thinking the exact same.

 

As long as he doesn't end up with the Cubs, I really don't care.

 

And even then, further thinning out the Cubs in the future is A-OK with me.

 

He's going to go to Baltimore or the Cubs or LA or some other pile of money in the off season anyhow.

 

We may as well go for somebody interesting like an Archer or Realmuto and unload our top guys for long term upgrades.

 

I was excited for a time, but the defense, with the rental.... and the bidding vs other teams has be exhausting. Imagine how DS feels. lol.

 

as for Arcia...

 

I get he is young... and fantastic defensively. For me it's not that he took a step back offensively. It's the way he did it. Went from oh man this guy could be a plus bat. To easy out, and not just bad luck... but horrible approach. Popping out 3-0 pitches. Things you don't do when you're in a slump. It's HARD to go from looking pretty good to looking THAT lost up there, and not doing any of the little fundamental things to give yourself an edge like most big leaguers do when they are having troubles at the dish. THAT, I believe is where people have questioned his makeup as a player. Gold glove defense is one thing, offensively lost and seems like there is no way out - is another. Just my opinion. Carry on!