Manny Machado (Part 1)

[JohnBriggs12]

Even at his pre-2018 numbers, he's been a 7-ish WAR player twice before. Even if you assume that Arcia rebounds SOMEWHAT to his 2017 production, that's still a 4-5 win upgrade (2-3 over a half season). That's a massive upgrade for a team that would presumably be in a playoff race at the time of acquisition...

 

You can't turn on sports radio in Chicago for 15 minutes without hearing a discussion of the Cubs getting Machado. The Cub system at the higher levels is garbage right now. Getting Machado, and at the same time preventing the Cubs from getting him would be huge both on the field and psychologically.

[jerichoholicninja]

Acquiring Machado would be such an anti-Stearns move I don't know why anyone would waste any thought on it.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Acquiring Machado would be such an anti-Stearns move I don't know why anyone would waste any thought on it.

 

It may be an anti-Stearns move, but it is very much an Attanasio-esque move. He signs the checks.

[Jkromb]

In the end game, it is a business, and a player like Machado brings you a lot more exposure and could even get us time on the national market.

[bill hAll Star]

In the end game, it is a business, and a player like Machado brings you a lot more exposure and could even get us time on the national market.

 

Nothing like emptying out the next 4-5 years of exposure and success for a game or two extra games on FS1 in August.

[tmwiese55]

I see no way this could happen for MKE with him being so far out of our price range in the offseason. Just doesn't make sense at all to me. Other teams who can sign him will just beat what we could feasibly offer knowing that we won't sign him.

 

On a sidenote, I saw some MLB TV talk the other day on values and future contracts for Harper, Machado, and Trout's was mentioned too. Point made by one of them was the defensive position value advantage Machado and Trout have over Harper since they're much tougher/important positions. One proceeds to say Machado is playing SS at a gold glove level. I just saw something the other day that he's probably the worst regular defensive SS in the league so far. Granted it's a small sample, but basically he should go back to 3B. If you're paid to analyze baseball on TV you'd think you'd look some of this stuff up

[jerichoholicninja]

In the end game, it is a business, and a player like Machado brings you a lot more exposure and could even get us time on the national market.

 

How much more national market exposure did the Brewers gets when they acquired CC or Greinke? Probably not much more and any was certainly because the team was actually good, winning games, and a playoff contender.

[young guns]

One proceeds to say Machado is playing SS at a gold glove level. I just saw something the other day that he's probably the worst regular defensive SS in the league so far. Granted it's a small sample, but basically he should go back to 3B. If you're paid to analyze baseball on TV you'd think you'd look some of this stuff up

Im sure he looked at the only numbers he thought matters to glod glove voters. The offensive numbers.

[adambr2]

Machado is a better 3B than a SS to be sure, but he isn't a disaster at short.

[bill hAll Star]

One proceeds to say Machado is playing SS at a gold glove level. I just saw something the other day that he's probably the worst regular defensive SS in the league so far. Granted it's a small sample, but basically he should go back to 3B. If you're paid to analyze baseball on TV you'd think you'd look some of this stuff up

Im sure he looked at the only numbers he thought matters to glod glove voters. The offensive numbers.

 

I think after backlash to that controversial Jeter year 8 years ago where he was one of the worst defenders in baseball and won the award, they basically defaulted to picking out of a hat between UZR, dWAR, etc. for the award. They actually do a decent job now.

[MrTPlush]

Acquiring Machado would be such an anti-Stearns move I don't know why anyone would waste any thought on it.

 

Lorenzo Cain was such an anti-Stearns move too. David Stearns has been a GM for very little time and has essentially never managed a contender before this year. Sometimes I feel people act like we have 20 years of data to look back on and know what he will or won’t do.

 

I doubt we blow up a chunk of the farm for a premium rental...but I can’t say I know Stearns wouldn’t do it ever.

[tmwiese55]

One proceeds to say Machado is playing SS at a gold glove level. I just saw something the other day that he's probably the worst regular defensive SS in the league so far. Granted it's a small sample, but basically he should go back to 3B. If you're paid to analyze baseball on TV you'd think you'd look some of this stuff up

Im sure he looked at the only numbers he thought matters to glod glove voters. The offensive numbers.

 

I think after backlash to that controversial Jeter year 8 years ago where he was one of the worst defenders in baseball and won the award, they basically defaulted to picking out of a hat between UZR, dWAR, etc. for the award. They actually do a decent job now.

 

found the article: https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/5/17/17363592/manny-machado-triple-crown-hunt-shortstop-struggles

 

"Among the 25 shortstops who have played at least 250 innings this year, he ranks last in both advanced defensive metrics displayed at FanGraphs, with negative-5 defensive runs saved and a negative-3.6 ultimate zone rating. In the latter stat, Machado is so far back from the pack that 24th-place Trea Turner is as close to 11th place as he is to Machado. And if placing last among his peers isn’t enough, the most damning fact about Machado’s early defensive returns is that his fielding numbers on a per-game basis place him near Derek Jeter at the Yankee shortstop’s defensive nadir."

[homer]

Here is the rumored group of players Cubs are offering:

 

Addison Russell, De La Cruz, Little, Lange or Albertos.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Here is the rumored group of players Cubs are offering:

 

Addison Russell, De La Cruz, Little, Lange or Albertos. Maybe Happ as well...

 

So Russell and a bunch of far-off pitchers, albeit with some decent upside. I think the Orioles would be dumb not to get Caratini in any deal as well.

 

But that is a young SS, #3 prospect, #6 prospect, #5 or #4 prospect and maybe Happ, who is young and talented. For a guy who would be a rental? I know their system sucks, but wow.

 

That would be the equivalent of the Brewers giving up Arcia, Ortiz, Houser or Ponce (or maybe Supak) and Phillips. That would be a pretty big ouch for a rental.

[tmwiese55]

Cubs would have every intention of singing him long term and would view it as giving them the upper hand or head start in the negotiation.

[homer]

I misinterpreted the tweet. Guy does not know if Happ is included. I have edited my post.

 

Tweet was from George Ofman from WBBM.

[KeithStone53151]

I don't think we get Machado, and I also don't think the Cubs get him. Dodgers are far too natural a fit. That said, our lineup if we did get him. Cain, Yelich, Machado, Shaw, Braun, Santana/Aguilar/Thames, Pina, Villar. That right there, is a true playoff caliber lineup.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Cubs would have every intention of singing him long term and would view it as giving them the upper hand or head start in the negotiation.

 

I'm sure that was the Cubs' thinking with Chapman as well. While he helped get them a Series win, if there were looking to lock him up longterm, that backfired.

[brewmann04]

The brewers won't be able to afford him once he hits FA

[tigerbrew]

I doubt Stearns will trade for Machado as it goes against his trade philosophy. I think it's great trade philosophy to avoid a very costly 4 months rental trade that could regress the team in the longer term.

[adambr2]

Even at his pre-2018 numbers, he's been a 7-ish WAR player twice before. Even if you assume that Arcia rebounds SOMEWHAT to his 2017 production, that's still a 4-5 win upgrade (2-3 over a half season). That's a massive upgrade for a team that would presumably be in a playoff race at the time of acquisition...

 

You can't turn on sports radio in Chicago for 15 minutes without hearing a discussion of the Cubs getting Machado. The Cub system at the higher levels is garbage right now. Getting Machado, and at the same time preventing the Cubs from getting him would be huge both on the field and psychologically.

 

This is certainly a fair point. No doubt the Cubs are the favorite to get Machado. Machado is such a significant player that I would go as far as to say that if the Brewers get Machado, they win the division, and if the Cubs get Machado, they win the division. Perhaps even the difference between one or the other winning the NL pennant. Obviously no way to know that for sure, but he's that much of a difference maker.

 

If he gets traded to an AL team, no harm no foul really. But he goes to the Cubs, it's pretty much double damage.

 

Of course, there's some serious long-term implications here, especially if you have to give up more than expected, so if you're going to go for it, it had better work out in spades.

[reillymcshane]

I want to point out that the Cubs have a payroll of $182M this season. Machado makes $16M - and has around $11M left on his 2018 contract. The Luxury Tax everyone wants to avoid is $197M.

 

That means the Cubs can fit Machado under the tax - although it wouldn't leave them with a ton of money to work with if they got him.

 

The Dodgers, another team frequently connected to Machado, have a payroll of $187M - which would make acquiring Machado problematic - but not impossible. It would be very tight.

 

Other than the Red Sox - who are over the cap by $35M - no other team really would have an issue with acquiring Machado (at least for going over the Luxury Tax line - some teams might have self-imposed caps that we just don't know about).

[reillymcshane]

Here is the rumored group of players Cubs are offering:

 

Addison Russell, De La Cruz, Little, Lange or Albertos.

I think this really doesn't offer a ton to the Orioles as Russell is under control 2021, which means just as the team was maybe getting good he'd be a free agent. All the other guys are mostly lottery ticket types at this point (but I honestly don't know much about any of them - perhaps I'm undervaluing them).

 

If that's the Cubs offer, I'd counter with something like Keon Broxton, Brett Phillips, Cody Ponce, Brandon Woodruff, and a lower level lottery ticket (perhaps someone like Supek).

 

A major league ready arm (Woodruff) who goes right into the rotation. Two outfielders who can immediately step in and start (Phillips and Broxton). Another arm that is a year or so away from potentially filling out the rotation (Ponce) and then a lottery ticket for down the road.

 

Dubon would have actually been perfect for Baltimore - and perhaps he'd still be of interest to them. I'm not sure what the outlook on his injury is.

 

The Orioles really lack athletic players, and quality position players are really scarce.

 

If the O's are going to rebuild, they are going to be bad for a few years. This gives them several players that can step in now - and potentially fill holes for a long time. No, none of the guys we are offering are all star type player. Most have their flaws. But they are players that can help a team and - if lucky - become quality major leaguers.

 

Machado would become our SS, and Arcia could go down to AAA to - hopefully - grow up a bit and be ready for 2019 (because Machado isn't staying in Milwaukee).

 

I will add that if the team really doesn't think Arcia is a long term answer at SS - they could send him to Baltimore. But I'm looking to 2019 by keeping him.

 

Also, if the O's don't like Woodruff, you could offer Ortiz instead. Probably more upside with Ortiz, but more risk. I would hesitate to include Burnes as I like him more than Woodruff and Ortiz.

 

Just a thought. I would think long and hard before making such an offer, but Machado's bat would really transform this lineup for the rest of the year.

 

Also, perhaps I'm underestimating Machado's value. It just takes one team to over pay. I just don't want to be that team.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I want to point out that the Cubs have a payroll of $182M this season. Machado makes $16M - and has around $11M left on his 2018 contract. The Luxury Tax everyone wants to avoid is $197M.

 

That means the Cubs can fit Machado under the tax - although it wouldn't leave them with a ton of money to work with if they got him.

 

The Dodgers, another team frequently connected to Machado, have a payroll of $187M - which would make acquiring Machado problematic - but not impossible. It would be very tight.

 

Other than the Red Sox - who are over the cap by $35M - no other team really would have an issue with acquiring Machado (at least for going over the Luxury Tax line - some teams might have self-imposed caps that we just don't know about).

 

I think the bigger financial issue for the Cubs potentially acquiring Machado is the 2019 season and them having any expectations to resigning him. The luxury tax bumps up to $206M, but in all honesty the Cubs don't have nearly the money coming off their books than what they'll need to add via salary arbitration to players like Bryant, Baez, Schwarber, Hendricks, etc. Some of their larger contracts (Heyward, Zobrist, Darvish) drop in AAV slightly next year, probably as part of their front office's plan to offset significant payroll increases brought about by pending salary arbitration, but I see no way for them to squeeze in another marquee FA contract for a guy like Machado, Harper, Kuechel, Kershaw, etc., unless they don't care about being over the luxury tax limit for multiple seasons.

 

That said, the Cubs may be about to fall into a huge pile of their own fun money a couple seasons from now if they wind up starting their own media network and not really care too much about exactly where the luxury tax limit is as their roster gets older and much more expensive.

[KCBrewerfan34]

Why would Baltimore want Addison Russell? I would think St, Louis makes better sense and they have a great array of young players.