Manny Machado (Part 1)

[TURBO]

Getting this thread back on track with some of the latest news on Machado:

 

Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Red Sox have been in "recent contact" with the Orioles about a Manny Machado trade.

 

Schmuck notes that there was a Red Sox scout in attendance Tuesday night at Camden Yards for the Orioles' game against the Yankees. Boston isn't the most logical landing spot for Machado given the presence of Xander Bogaerts at shortstop and Rafael Devers at third base, but Devers currently holds a .290 on-base percentage in 89 games this year and could maybe use a little more minor league seasoning -- though he is slugging .424 with 14 home runs. Among the other teams connected to Machado over the last couple of weeks: the Phillies, Dodgers, Brewers, Diamondbacks, Braves, Yankees, and Cubs.

 

 

Source: Baltimore Sun

Jul 10 - 9:49 PM

[TURBO]

MLB teams need to send scouts to see Manny Machado? lol

[Fear The Chorizo]

Ortiz has been with the Brewer organization for about two full years now, all of which has been spent in AA Biloxi. During his time there, many of his numbers have actually been regressing and he's been very slow to increase his innings workload, which is why he didn't shoot further up the system like Woodruff did in 2016/2017 or Burnes and Peralta have done in 2017/2018. Ortiz actually hasn't gotten over 100 IP in any of his minor league seasons yet, meaning he's probably still 2 years away from being a viable MLB starter capable of a 150-175 inning workload, and that's assuming he can stay healthy enough to log those innings.

 

The Brewers are at a point with their 40 man roster that making sure Ortiz gets on it this fall and is given the time he still needs in the minors to develop will really hamper the flexibility DS likes. He's already parted ways with the centerpiece prospect the Brewers got from TX for the Luc/Jeffress deal, I won't be surprised at all if he's getting ready to give Ortiz another change of organization, too.

 

He's had hamstring injuries, not arm injuries. Getting rid of Ortiz because he dealt with some non-pitching-related injuries is ludicrous. Thank god you all aren't the GM.

 

Hamstring injuries cause pitchers to not pitch, especially ones that happen to big guys where there are conditioning concerns. How is he a potential TOR arm when he hasn't started more than 20 games in a year over the course of FIVE minor league seasons? You thinking a hamstring isn't a big deal to a pitcher makes me glad you're not a trainer. It's great it's not his arm, but changing mechanics to try and avoid recurring hamstring injuries will be what causes an arm injury.

[pacopete4]

So maybe Ortiz ends up as a stud reliever. Still don’t want to give that away for two months of Machado.

[MilwaukeeBeers]

Piggybacking off Reilly, I really think Angelos might be crazy enough to spur other AL East teams with a "better" package for the Brewers/Indians.

[Jenkins5]

I'd rather give up Woodruff than Ortiz.

 

Ortiz gets no respect around here and I have no idea why. He's a potential top of the rotation arm.

 

Being fat, out of shape, injured, and unproductive often leads to disrespect in baseball. If having the Futures Game moniker attached to him boosts his value, we should cash it in before he is hit with a serious injury, or his velocity disappears.

 

What a nonsensical post. He's got a 9.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 this season, and I'm somehow skeptical you've even seen him pitch, much less that you are qualified to call him "fat" "out of shape" or "unproductive"

 

If Ortiz hadn't dealt with injuries this season and last he would probably rank ahead of Burnes right now.

 

That is the problem though.... he hasn’t had a season without injuries popping up. Mark Rogers & Matt Jones could have been great to if they didn’t have injuries every year as well.... different since luckily Ortiz hasn’t had arm issues like them but naggy stuff like hamstrings, groin and etc.

 

Until he can finally make some progress building up his innings, he won’t be able to help at MLB level as s SP. Needs to start working over 100 innings

[reillymcshane]

Did you know that the Brewers shortstops have a combined battling line of .201 BA, .255 OBP, .300 SLG%, .555 OPS.

 

A bat like Machado's would make our weakest position one of our best (at least hitting-wise).

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I do have one question that has been under the radar in this thread IMO. What’s the surplus value of the compensation pick that the O’s would receive? Even though we don’t get it for ourselves, we would be taking it away from the O’s.

 

The Brewers comparable is Lutz. Looking at a draft pick that in most drafts would fall in the 31-36 area. Unless there is some exceptional talent that unexpectedly drops, the 31-36 players won't be highly regarded enough to land in the top 100. Next group is "top 10 organizational prospect," so since there are 30 teams that would equate to a top 300 prospect. Probably pretty safe to say that almost all players picked in that 31-36 region would fall in that group. I have the "top 10 organizational prospect" group valued at 11.45 million, same as Brett Phillips or Luis Ortiz now that they've fallen out of top 100 consideration (IMO). However, I'd probably upgrade the compensatory pick just slightly because it's not simply about drafting a player like Lutz, but also gives the team that additional money from that draft spot to add a bit of flexibility to what they could do. Personally, I'd probably put the value of the compensatory pick at about 13 million (and admittedly am pulling the approximate 1.55 million difference out of my rear end, but I think that's fair). If I'm the Orioles and, by my numbers, if the offers fell short of 13 million in prospect surplus value then I'd just keep Machado the rest of the year and take the draft pick.

I love these posts as well. Always great to see another way to look at things. Not to make this more complicated than it is, but it would seem that even considering a top 10 org prospect, the longer it takes for a player to get to the majors, the lower his value should be. An accounting analogy comes to mind. Present Value is worth more than Future Value. A lower level prospect (especially one not drafted yet) should be worth less than a guy who has already seen the majors or is close to it. Many high draft picks never make it to the majors, let alone succeed there. I could not imagine trading Phillips or Ortiz straight up for #30+ draft pick.

[And That]

different since luckily Ortiz hasn’t had arm issues like them but naggy stuff like hamstrings, groin and etc.

Basically right, but not entirely true. Ortiz slid down draft boards a bit in 2014 due to a forearm issue he had as a HS senior.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Getting rid of Ortiz because he dealt with some non-pitching-related injuries is ludicrous.

 

And I'll state my opinion that including Ortiz in a trade for Machado is far from "getting rid" of him - to get talent you have to give up talent, and there's no question Ortiz has God-given ability to pitch. The big question mark with him is will he ever be able to realize his potential and put it all together to become a quality MLB starter. He's already seen three Brewer pitching prospects blow right by him in Biloxi (Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta), and Brown's season to date basically makes it a 4th.

 

Arms like Ortiz get every opportunity to succeed, it's just looking tougher for him to make it all happen with the Brewers based mostly on roster management and Ortiz's length of minor league service time.

[pacopete4]

Did you know that the Brewers shortstops have a combined battling line of .201 BA, .255 OBP, .300 SLG%, .555 OPS.

 

A bat like Machado's would make our weakest position one of our best (at least hitting-wise).

 

Those numbers obviously stink but are misleading going forward. Sogard and Arcia are gone and they are replacing that production with the following so far:

 

Saladino: .286/.352/.571/.923

Miller: .289/.360/.489/.849

Perez: .247/.281/.398/.678

[Jenkins5]

Did you know that the Brewers shortstops have a combined battling line of .201 BA, .255 OBP, .300 SLG%, .555 OPS.

 

A bat like Machado's would make our weakest position one of our best (at least hitting-wise).

 

It would be huge for our team. Getting an MVP type bat to replace that line would be huge for our push. Peralta & Burnes are the only two who should be off the table for deal & it sounds like they are. Rental or not. Machado helps this team win now. Dealing from strength of High level OF & High level SP won’t hurt us. Clearly you can’t just trade Roegner or Wilkerson for him. You need to give up one real good arm prospect. That is what they want. Sucks to lose any of them but sometimes you need to make a tough call to make team better now without hurt future by sell farm. Phillips/Ortiz.... stings a little but we will be fine.

[adambr2]

MLB teams need to send scouts to see Manny Machado? lol

 

I have wondered about that too. Its Manny freaking Machado, and it's also 2018. Surely every team has access to film every second he's on the field if he so much as picks his nose.

 

I admittedly know basically nothing about scouting but is there really something more than all of that that they can get in person?

[dlk9s]

MLB teams need to send scouts to see Manny Machado? lol

 

I've always thought this was funny. On top of already knowing how good Machado is, they can watch him on TV. In fact, with baseball, the only thing I would guess you see better in person - and this depends on the actual, physical view you have - is non-baseball playing-related things like body language, teammate interaction, etc. And those probably don't mean much.

[ClosetBrewerFan]

Did you know that the Brewers shortstops have a combined battling line of .201 BA, .255 OBP, .300 SLG%, .555 OPS.

 

A bat like Machado's would make our weakest position one of our best (at least hitting-wise).

 

Those numbers obviously stink but are misleading going forward. Sogard and Arcia are gone and they are replacing that production with the following so far:

 

Saladino: .286/.352/.571/.923

Miller: .289/.360/.489/.849

Perez: .247/.281/.398/.678

 

Speaking of misleading numbers. Those are small sample numbers from Saladino (49 AB) and Miller (45 AB). Saladino has a career 629 OPS. Its unlikely he can keep up those numbers. I dont know what to expect from miller but the 849 OPS is just what he has done with the Brewers this year. Its more likely he will produce 725-775 OPS. Even if he does continue an 800 OPS this year, I'd rather see him at 2b platooning with Villar. Machado would make a huge difference.

[Fear The Chorizo]

I admittedly know basically nothing about scouting but is there really something more than all of that that they can get in person?

 

Teams send advance scouts to opponents' games all the time - mainly for game planning purposes to get a firsthand look at tendencies, who seems to be playing at less than 100% health, etc...The Orioles play the Red Sox in about two weeks, so I wouldn't be surprised if that had something to do with their scout at a Baltimore game - not to mention they're playing the Yankees, the team the Red Sox are going to be chasing down the stretch.

 

That being said, I'm sure they spent plenty of time watching Machado, since he basically is the Orioles' team right now - the scout was probably chuckling at how much worse they'll be after Machado and Britton get dealt before the Red Sox play them again.

[Brewer Fever]

They're looking to match up the player today to the numbers he's putting up so far. Is the bat fast - today? Is he swinging at good pitches? Any hint of an nagging ailment? And a big one with Manny specifically is...how's he looking at short? Is the range coming back? Is his feel coming back? Might his defense play better in the 2nd half than it did thus far?

[Brewer Fever]

Over 100 active users and guests on the site approaching midnight in Wisconsin. Color me very impressed being in Vegas where it's only pushing 10pm.

[Bulldogboy]

I think Ray has rebuilt his value this season. With Adam Jones being done I say maybe offer Ray as a final with maybe a throw in lottery ticket. Try to keep as much pitching as possible. I am sure some will say that no way Orioles go for it but Ray was a top 5 pick and has really played well this year and immediately becomes the best prospect they have. Maybe Supak can go too and get this done at the all star break. Waiting till the 31st is silly for both sides.

[Bulldogboy]

MLB teams need to send scouts to see Manny Machado? lol

 

I have wondered about that too. Its Manny freaking Machado, and it's also 2018. Surely every team has access to film every second he's on the field if he so much as picks his nose.

 

I admittedly know basically nothing about scouting but is there really something more than all of that that they can get in person?

I would say yes. Especially seeing how he is competing with one of the worst teams in a long time in the AL. I think there is value in seeing him up close before pulling what would be a huge trigger.

[502 to Right]

I do not want Manny Machado. The Brewers do not have the luxury of giving away top prospects for rentals.

 

Logjam starting to build up with upper level SPs with not much for open spots: Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff, Houser, Derby ( prob would get a shot in many clubs) Wilkerson.... Ortiz, Brown, Medeiros, Diplan, Ponce (still around not doing much though) & Supek....

 

Not all those guys are going to pitch for Brewers. If it takes Phillips & Ortiz to get Machado who is having MVP season on awful team to help an offense that has tendency to go dead... I think that’s fine.

 

Still more left if we wanted to attack stud, controllable SP. Cubs are going to come roaring soon.... we need weapons if we want to be for real. Phillips & Ortiz don’t hurt us in future with no spot for them coming up.

 

There's no such thing as a logjam at starting pitcher.

[Oldcity]

Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun

 

Come on, no way...

[MrTPlush]

MLB teams need to send scouts to see Manny Machado? lol

 

I've always thought this was funny. On top of already knowing how good Machado is, they can watch him on TV. In fact, with baseball, the only thing I would guess you see better in person - and this depends on the actual, physical view you have - is non-baseball playing-related things like body language, teammate interaction, etc. And those probably don't mean much.

 

Defense, can’t really see defense. You miss a lot of things before the camera angle switches to the fielder. Sometimes they show a replay, but a lot of times you won’t see a lot of their first instincts. This is especially true with OFers.

 

So no doubt any team looking at Machado is going to send a scout out there to see him play defense. Likewise as someone else mentioned you want to go to look at body language that might throw any red flags.

[PeaveyFury]

Peter Schmuck of the Baltimore Sun

 

Come on, no way...

 

That was my first thought as well...

[Brewcrewin07]

Whatever needs to happen to make this deal...do it..The sooner the better...The Brewers lineup with Manny in it would be flat out sick. Remember folks, prospects, are just that...prospects. Anytime you can get proven talent(and in this case one of the best in the game), for guys that you have no idea if they will be good major leaguers or not, you simply do it.