Manny Machado (Part 1)

[Jenkins5]

I do not want Manny Machado. The Brewers do not have the luxury of giving away top prospects for rentals.

 

Logjam in OF with no spots for Broxton, Santana, Phillips, Taylor, Ray, Stokes, and guess I’ll throw in Grisham if he ever hits for average.

 

Logjam starting to build up with upper level SPs with not much for open spots: Peralta, Burnes, Woodruff, Houser, Derby ( prob would get a shot in many clubs) Wilkerson.... Ortiz, Brown, Medeiros, Diplan, Ponce (still around not doing much though) & Supek....

 

Not all those guys are going to pitch for Brewers. If it takes Phillips & Ortiz to get Machado who is having MVP season on awful team to help an offense that has tendency to go dead... I think that’s fine.

 

Still more left if we wanted to attack stud, controllable SP. Cubs are going to come roaring soon.... we need weapons if we want to be for real. Phillips & Ortiz don’t hurt us in future with no spot for them coming up.

[mattyo]

I do not want Manny Machado. The Brewers do not have the luxury of giving away top prospects for rentals.

 

Well, thats exactly it. Ortiz and Phillips, while good prospects, are certainly not our "top" prospects (ex. Hiura, Peralta, Burnes).

[gebc1997]

Counsell spent extra time with the team according to Dario Melendez and did not have his presser after the game like usual......

 

hmmmmmmmm

[BrewersAA]

Phillips is blocked, and so is Ortiz. So, all they have right now to the org is trade value. By the time they would get regular playing time they would have vastly less value. There is no point in having prospects just to have them. The rangers made this mistake.

[Humans Need Water]

I hope everyone watched Burnes tonight. He showed exactly why you don't trade him.

 

Woodruff/Ortiz + Phillips is more than enough

[SRB]

I'd rather give up Woodruff than Ortiz.

 

Ortiz gets no respect around here and I have no idea why. He's a potential top of the rotation arm.

[82brewcrew82]

I'd rather give up Woodruff than Ortiz.

 

Ortiz gets no respect around here and I have no idea why. He's a potential top of the rotation arm.

This.

[Humans Need Water]

I'd rather give up Woodruff than Ortiz.

 

Ortiz gets no respect around here and I have no idea why. He's a potential top of the rotation arm.

This.

I just touched on Ortiz never getting respect earlier tonight. It's true. I'd rather part with Woodruff too because he's MLB ready and turns 26 in the offseason whereas Ortiz is in AAA next year at 23 (and has a higher ceiling). But if it has to be Ortiz over Woodruff I'm still not turning it down

[82brewcrew82]

I'd rather give up Woodruff than Ortiz.

 

Ortiz gets no respect around here and I have no idea why. He's a potential top of the rotation arm.

This.

I just touched on Ortiz never getting respect earlier tonight. It's true. I'd rather part with Woodruff too because he's MLB ready and turns 26 in the offseason whereas Ortiz is in AAA next year at 23 (and has a higher ceiling). But if it has to be Ortiz over Woodruff I'm still not turning it down

I agree but I prefer it be Woodruff for pretty much the reasons you mentioned. I think Ortiz absolutely belongs in the same group as Burnes and Peralta. I'm not as sold on Brown as some others are.

[brewmann04]

I agree keep the younger guy in Ortiz and Corbin also goes nowhere

[MilwaukeeBeers]

I think the Brewers gave the O’s a proverbial middle finger when we added Burnes to the MLB roster. Safe to say he sticks.

[TooLiveBrew]

Another thing to consider in our reported pursuit of Machado is owner Peter Angelos.

 

While Angelos is 89 years old, and isn't as involved in the day-to-day affairs of the team as he used to (his kids now run things), he could add an interesting dynamic to any trade offers.

 

Angelos reportedly hates the Yankees - and has vowed to never help them. While he's a lawyer, he comes from a blue collar background, hates corporations (he had bragged he never represented a corporation in his life) and never played well with other owners.

 

How this all plays out - who knows. I doubt he'll stop Machado from being dealt - even he can see it's needed. But it might help a club like Milwaukee - small market, blue collar town, never won a World Series. If offers are being considered are relatively equal, he might (and I'm just having fun speculating here) throw the Crew a bone - and send Manny to Milwaukee - rather than help out a club like the Dodgers.

 

In the end, Angelos might be the kind of guy who would wince at helping the Dodgers or Yankees win a World Series.

 

Just a thought.

Thanks for sharing this. I didn't know any of this, & it's really interesting to take into consideration. Maybe it winds up meaning zilch. But interesting nonetheless.

 

Always enjoy those posts Joseph. Thanks again.

I'll echo this -- and probably should have acknowledged your diligence many times sooner. Keep this stuff coming, JosephC. Really great breakdowns & value analysis.

[TooLiveBrew]

Counsell spent extra time with the team according to Dario Melendez and did not have his presser after the game like usual......

 

hmmmmmmmm

Has any rhyme or reason to this surfaced yet? Were they just celebrating with Burnes maybe?

[82brewcrew82]

Counsell spent extra time with the team according to Dario Melendez and did not have his presser after the game like usual......

 

hmmmmmmmm

Has any rhyme or reason to this surfaced yet? Were they just celebrating with Burnes maybe?

That's what I was thinking.

[Never Outhustled]

I'd rather give up Woodruff than Ortiz.

 

Ortiz gets no respect around here and I have no idea why. He's a potential top of the rotation arm.

 

Being fat, out of shape, injured, and unproductive often leads to disrespect in baseball. If having the Futures Game moniker attached to him boosts his value, we should cash it in before he is hit with a serious injury, or his velocity disappears.

[Never Outhustled]

Counsell spent extra time with the team according to Dario Melendez and did not have his presser after the game like usual......

 

hmmmmmmmm

Has any rhyme or reason to this surfaced yet? Were they just celebrating with Burnes maybe?

That's what I was thinking.

 

Possibly, or might even be discussing sending Burnes down for a fresh arm. A lot of different directions are possible.

[NievesNoNO]

I wouldn't give up Burnes. I really like Woodruff and would have a hard time giving him up as well but I think I could stomach deal including Woodruff and Phillips. I do understand people's reluctantly to part with our farm depth as you hate to sell the future for a rental who 'might' not get them there. I think it really comes down to how you grade out this team. If you think they are legit, which I do, then you really have to consider making a strong play at the guy. He's an offensive difference maker, not just an upgrade. The future that we've all waited so long for could be here now.

 

This is a really good team when healthy. They kind of remind me of the Royals a few years back when nobody really thought they were as good as their record and they ended up in back to back WS, getting their championship. They can beat you in a lot of different ways. Their starting pitching still feels like it's overachieving; but they have power and speed on offense, play good defense, have a very good bullpen, and are super versatile.

 

I'd still prefer a game changer at starting pitcher but it could very well end up being Machado is the biggest game changer available this deadline. This team is good enough in my mind that I don't want to wonder "What If" they had given up a bit more.

 

It's time. Dream big my friends.

[liveforoctober]

JospehC ... what do you do for a living? If you wrote about baseball I would read everything you published... just saying.

[Bulldogboy]

The orioles have a historically bad offense around Machado. What he is doing with nobody on base or hitting around him is crazy. Put him at the plate with Cain and Yelich on base and Jesus behind him and he will go nuts. Brewers have to find a way to make this deal work. If they won't budge on Burnes then you just have to walk away I guess.

[reillymcshane]

Just to rehash the prospect surplus value numbers.

 

Baltimore is up to 91 games played.

Machado's Fangraphs WAR = 3.2. Baseball Reference WAR = 2.1.

Let's just, to put the max value on him, credit him at 3.2 WAR through 91 games. Extrapolate that out to 162 games makes him a 5.7 WAR player. And just to make the math that much easier, put him at 6 WAR over the season which makes him a 1 WAR per month player. That's taking the high number and "rounding up" through the process. Maybe one could argue that putting the max on Machado also factors in any playoff contributions, everyone here can decide on their own if that's legitimate or not.

 

1 WAR = 9.16 million. Machado makes 16 million this year...16 million/6 months or approximately 2.67 million per month.

 

So doing the easy math, Machado has about 6.5 million dollars of surplus value per month. Trade for him on July 31st, fair package would have approximately 13 million in prospect surplus value headed to Baltimore. Trade for him on July 16, fair package would have about 16.25 million headed to Baltimore.

 

I think both Ortiz and Phillips easily slot into the "top 10 organizational prospect" tier which I have as holding 11.45 million dollars in prospect surplus value. So a trade tonight for Ortiz and Phillips would have 22.9 million in surplus heading to Baltimore, and with 2/3's of July still left the Brewers would be getting approximately 17.36 million dollars in surplus value with Machado. Even with the 5.5 million dollar advantage to the Orioles, I still think this is within the limit of calling it an "even enough" swap. But what the numbers do tell me is that an offer of Ortiz and Phillips should be the top offer the Brewers make, and once it gets past the All-Star break the Brewers should pull one of those two guys out of the offer and insert a lower rated prospect. Getting beyond that, and it's overpaying for a rental IMO.

 

JosephC, I want to echo the other positive comments about this (and other) posts.

 

While some might care for the detailed breakdown, and some will just say WAR is crap, I think it's cool to see the hard analytical breakdown of these situations. I know they aren't easy and take some time - so thank you for sharing them when you do.

[Fear The Chorizo]

Ortiz has been with the Brewer organization for about two full years now, all of which has been spent in AA Biloxi. During his time there, many of his numbers have actually been regressing and he's been very slow to increase his innings workload, which is why he didn't shoot further up the system like Woodruff did in 2016/2017 or Burnes and Peralta have done in 2017/2018. Ortiz actually hasn't gotten over 100 IP in any of his minor league seasons yet, meaning he's probably still 2 years away from being a viable MLB starter capable of a 150-175 inning workload, and that's assuming he can stay healthy enough to log those innings.

 

The Brewers are at a point with their 40 man roster that making sure Ortiz gets on it this fall and is given the time he still needs in the minors to develop will really hamper the flexibility DS likes. He's already parted ways with the centerpiece prospect the Brewers got from TX for the Luc/Jeffress deal, I won't be surprised at all if he's getting ready to give Ortiz another change of organization, too.

[SRB]

I'd rather give up Woodruff than Ortiz.

 

Ortiz gets no respect around here and I have no idea why. He's a potential top of the rotation arm.

 

Being fat, out of shape, injured, and unproductive often leads to disrespect in baseball. If having the Futures Game moniker attached to him boosts his value, we should cash it in before he is hit with a serious injury, or his velocity disappears.

 

What a nonsensical post. He's got a 9.4 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 this season, and I'm somehow skeptical you've even seen him pitch, much less that you are qualified to call him "fat" "out of shape" or "unproductive"

 

If Ortiz hadn't dealt with injuries this season and last he would probably rank ahead of Burnes right now.

[SRB]

Ortiz has been with the Brewer organization for about two full years now, all of which has been spent in AA Biloxi. During his time there, many of his numbers have actually been regressing and he's been very slow to increase his innings workload, which is why he didn't shoot further up the system like Woodruff did in 2016/2017 or Burnes and Peralta have done in 2017/2018. Ortiz actually hasn't gotten over 100 IP in any of his minor league seasons yet, meaning he's probably still 2 years away from being a viable MLB starter capable of a 150-175 inning workload, and that's assuming he can stay healthy enough to log those innings.

 

The Brewers are at a point with their 40 man roster that making sure Ortiz gets on it this fall and is given the time he still needs in the minors to develop will really hamper the flexibility DS likes. He's already parted ways with the centerpiece prospect the Brewers got from TX for the Luc/Jeffress deal, I won't be surprised at all if he's getting ready to give Ortiz another change of organization, too.

 

He's had hamstring injuries, not arm injuries. Getting rid of Ortiz because he dealt with some non-pitching-related injuries is ludicrous. Thank god you all aren't the GM.

 

His K/9 and BB/9 have improved steadily every year he's been in a Brewers uniform, as have his advanced peripherals.

[Jenkins5]

Ortiz is endangered of having another season where he fails to reach 100 innings. Something he has never done yet as a pro. Last 2 where 90 & 94. This year he is at 49. He hasn’t really dominated as much as you’d hope since he was in rookie & A ball. Solid numbers and has been young at every level but anytime he gets rolling, something naggy has popped up & slowed him done. Love the arm and it can be really good! However, weight concerns & naggy injuries is not great sign to me. .

[ClosetBrewerFan]

I do not want Manny Machado. The Brewers do not have the luxury of giving away top prospects for rentals.

How do you feel about losing prospects in our top 10-20 range for free in the offseason. If we dont resolve the 40 man roster crunch, guys like Stokes, Gatewood, QTC, or Bickford will be lost. As others have said, we wont be losing top prospects for Machado. But if we are going to lose players anyways, might as well get something for them. We cant keep all of these guys.