Manny Machado (Part 1)

[reillymcshane]

I think Lux and May would be a nice starting point for the Orioles in a deal with LA. However, both guys are in A ball at this time. I get the feeling that Baltimore wants guys closer to the majors (which I think is a mistake - I think you go best player). That would make a Ortiz/Phillips combo a bit more attractive.

 

I think something like Phillips/Ortiz and Wilkerson would be nice. Phillips goes right into the OF (perhaps playing a corner slot in deference to Adam Jones (if he isn't traded). Ortiz moves to AAA and prepped for MLB debut next year. While Wilkerson is nothing special, he could slot into their rotation right now. If he works out, great. If not, no big lose.

[PeaveyFury]

If they're insistant on Burnes, ask them if they'll take Braun and his contract, because Orioles.

[reillymcshane]

Another thing to consider in our reported pursuit of Machado is owner Peter Angelos.

 

While Angelos is 89 years old, and isn't as involved in the day-to-day affairs of the team as he used to (his kids now run things), he could add an interesting dynamic to any trade offers.

 

Angelos reportedly hates the Yankees - and has vowed to never help them. While he's a lawyer, he comes from a blue collar background, hates corporations (he had bragged he never represented a corporation in his life) and never played well with other owners.

 

How this all plays out - who knows. I doubt he'll stop Machado from being dealt - even he can see it's needed. But it might help a club like Milwaukee - small market, blue collar town, never won a World Series. If offers are being considered are relatively equal, he might (and I'm just having fun speculating here) throw the Crew a bone - and send Manny to Milwaukee - rather than help out a club like the Dodgers.

 

In the end, Angelos might be the kind of guy who would wince at helping the Dodgers or Yankees win a World Series.

 

Just a thought.

[pacopete4]

I hope when I’m 89 I will own a baseball team.

[Brewfan77]

Boston is reportedly looking at Britton. Could the brewers give up Burnes and Broxton for Machado and Britton? Then flip Britton to Boston for some lottery ticket types. Eases the 40 man crunch and nets the Brewers Machado and some guys that are a few years away from rule V. Just a thought.

[Roderick]

Boston is reportedly looking at Britton. Could the brewers give up Burnes and Broxton for Machado and Britton? Then flip Britton to Boston for some lottery ticket types. Eases the 40 man crunch and nets the Brewers Machado and some guys that are a few years away from rule V. Just a thought.

 

No reason to muddy the waters. Three team trades are more off-season type deals. KISS

[Brewfan77]

Boston is reportedly looking at Britton. Could the brewers give up Burnes and Broxton for Machado and Britton? Then flip Britton to Boston for some lottery ticket types. Eases the 40 man crunch and nets the Brewers Machado and some guys that are a few years away from rule V. Just a thought.

 

No reason to muddy the waters. Three team trades are more off-season type deals. KISS

 

I apologize. No reason to think outside the box. Good day!

[JosephC]

Just to rehash the prospect surplus value numbers.

 

Baltimore is up to 91 games played.

Machado's Fangraphs WAR = 3.2. Baseball Reference WAR = 2.1.

Let's just, to put the max value on him, credit him at 3.2 WAR through 91 games. Extrapolate that out to 162 games makes him a 5.7 WAR player. And just to make the math that much easier, put him at 6 WAR over the season which makes him a 1 WAR per month player. That's taking the high number and "rounding up" through the process. Maybe one could argue that putting the max on Machado also factors in any playoff contributions, everyone here can decide on their own if that's legitimate or not.

 

1 WAR = 9.16 million. Machado makes 16 million this year...16 million/6 months or approximately 2.67 million per month.

 

So doing the easy math, Machado has about 6.5 million dollars of surplus value per month. Trade for him on July 31st, fair package would have approximately 13 million in prospect surplus value headed to Baltimore. Trade for him on July 16, fair package would have about 16.25 million headed to Baltimore.

 

I think both Ortiz and Phillips easily slot into the "top 10 organizational prospect" tier which I have as holding 11.45 million dollars in prospect surplus value. So a trade tonight for Ortiz and Phillips would have 22.9 million in surplus heading to Baltimore, and with 2/3's of July still left the Brewers would be getting approximately 17.36 million dollars in surplus value with Machado. Even with the 5.5 million dollar advantage to the Orioles, I still think this is within the limit of calling it an "even enough" swap. But what the numbers do tell me is that an offer of Ortiz and Phillips should be the top offer the Brewers make, and once it gets past the All-Star break the Brewers should pull one of those two guys out of the offer and insert a lower rated prospect. Getting beyond that, and it's overpaying for a rental IMO.

[StearnsFTW]

Always enjoy those posts Joseph. Thanks again.

[Eye Black]

Boston is reportedly looking at Britton. Could the brewers give up Burnes and Broxton for Machado and Britton? Then flip Britton to Boston for some lottery ticket types. Eases the 40 man crunch and nets the Brewers Machado and some guys that are a few years away from rule V. Just a thought.

 

No reason to muddy the waters. Three team trades are more off-season type deals. KISS

Reminds me of arguably one of the most famous deadline trades in history that was a four team deal involving the Red Sox and Cubs...

 

July 31, 2004: The Boston Red Sox sent Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton to the Chicago Cubs. The Minnesota Twins sent Doug Mientkiewicz to the Boston Red Sox. The Montreal Expos sent Orlando Cabrera to the Boston Red Sox. The Chicago Cubs sent Francis Beltran, Alex Gonzalez and Brendan Harris to the Montreal Expos. The Chicago Cubs sent Justin Jones (minors) to the Minnesota Twins.

[Oxy]

Just to rehash the prospect surplus value numbers.

 

Baltimore is up to 91 games played.

Machado's Fangraphs WAR = 3.2. Baseball Reference WAR = 2.1.

Let's just, to put the max value on him, credit him at 3.2 WAR through 91 games. Extrapolate that out to 162 games makes him a 5.7 WAR player. And just to make the math that much easier, put him at 6 WAR over the season which makes him a 1 WAR per month player. That's taking the high number and "rounding up" through the process. Maybe one could argue that putting the max on Machado also factors in any playoff contributions, everyone here can decide on their own if that's legitimate or not.

 

1 WAR = 9.16 million. Machado makes 16 million this year...16 million/6 months or approximately 2.67 million per month.

 

So doing the easy math, Machado has about 6.5 million dollars of surplus value per month. Trade for him on July 31st, fair package would have approximately 13 million in prospect surplus value headed to Baltimore. Trade for him on July 16, fair package would have about 16.25 million headed to Baltimore.

 

I think both Ortiz and Phillips easily slot into the "top 10 organizational prospect" tier which I have as holding 11.45 million dollars in prospect surplus value. So a trade tonight for Ortiz and Phillips would have 22.9 million in surplus heading to Baltimore, and with 2/3's of July still left the Brewers would be getting approximately 17.36 million dollars in surplus value with Machado. Even with the 5.5 million dollar advantage to the Orioles, I still think this is within the limit of calling it an "even enough" swap. But what the numbers do tell me is that an offer of Ortiz and Phillips should be the top offer the Brewers make, and once it gets past the All-Star break the Brewers should pull one of those two guys out of the offer and insert a lower rated prospect. Getting beyond that, and it's overpaying for a rental IMO.

 

 

This is an interesting analysis. The possible playoff contributions really do throw all the WAR and $ values out of whack though. Still, I like the measured approach--at trust that Stearns will do the right thing.

[StearnsFTW]

Boston is reportedly looking at Britton. Could the brewers give up Burnes and Broxton for Machado and Britton? Then flip Britton to Boston for some lottery ticket types. Eases the 40 man crunch and nets the Brewers Machado and some guys that are a few years away from rule V. Just a thought.

 

No reason to muddy the waters. Three team trades are more off-season type deals. KISS

Reminds me of arguably one of the most famous deadline trades in history that was a four team deal involving the Red Sox and Cubs...

 

July 31, 2004: The Boston Red Sox sent Nomar Garciaparra and Matt Murton to the Chicago Cubs. The Minnesota Twins sent Doug Mientkiewicz to the Boston Red Sox. The Montreal Expos sent Orlando Cabrera to the Boston Red Sox. The Chicago Cubs sent Francis Beltran, Alex Gonzalez and Brendan Harris to the Montreal Expos. The Chicago Cubs sent Justin Jones (minors) to the Minnesota Twins.

 

Yep, the Red Sox win precisely nothing without Cabrera.

[Eye Black]

Just to rehash the prospect surplus value numbers.

 

Baltimore is up to 91 games played.

Machado's Fangraphs WAR = 3.2. Baseball Reference WAR = 2.1.

Let's just, to put the max value on him, credit him at 3.2 WAR through 91 games. Extrapolate that out to 162 games makes him a 5.7 WAR player. And just to make the math that much easier, put him at 6 WAR over the season which makes him a 1 WAR per month player. That's taking the high number and "rounding up" through the process. Maybe one could argue that putting the max on Machado also factors in any playoff contributions, everyone here can decide on their own if that's legitimate or not.

 

1 WAR = 9.16 million. Machado makes 16 million this year...16 million/6 months or approximately 2.67 million per month.

 

So doing the easy math, Machado has about 6.5 million dollars of surplus value per month. Trade for him on July 31st, fair package would have approximately 13 million in prospect surplus value headed to Baltimore. Trade for him on July 16, fair package would have about 16.25 million headed to Baltimore.

 

I think both Ortiz and Phillips easily slot into the "top 10 organizational prospect" tier which I have as holding 11.45 million dollars in prospect surplus value. So a trade tonight for Ortiz and Phillips would have 22.9 million in surplus heading to Baltimore, and with 2/3's of July still left the Brewers would be getting approximately 17.36 million dollars in surplus value with Machado. Even with the 5.5 million dollar advantage to the Orioles, I still think this is within the limit of calling it an "even enough" swap. But what the numbers do tell me is that an offer of Ortiz and Phillips should be the top offer the Brewers make, and once it gets past the All-Star break the Brewers should pull one of those two guys out of the offer and insert a lower rated prospect. Getting beyond that, and it's overpaying for a rental IMO.

 

 

This is an interesting analysis. The possible playoff contributions really do throw all the WAR and $ values out of whack though. Still, I like the measured approach--at trust that Stearns will do the right thing.

There is currently a line of thinking that in past years teams would make July deals with the second half playoff run in mind, but this year there are many teams that are looking at the deadline as a way to cement their playoff roster instead. That especially seems to be the case in the American League where the playoff teams have pretty much been identified at this point.

[Roderick]

Boston is reportedly looking at Britton. Could the brewers give up Burnes and Broxton for Machado and Britton? Then flip Britton to Boston for some lottery ticket types. Eases the 40 man crunch and nets the Brewers Machado and some guys that are a few years away from rule V. Just a thought.

 

No reason to muddy the waters. Three team trades are more off-season type deals. KISS

 

I apologize. No reason to think outside the box. Good day!

 

Nothing personal.

 

If the Orioles are so in love with Burnes, which means we are giving them more than we should, I guess we could take Britton back and move him like you mentioned. Just hate to complicate things if you don't have to, or give up Burnes.

[PeaveyFury]

I’m curious how projections like this account for the value/ production increase that someone like Yelich for example could gain from Machado being added to the lineup behind him?

[JCREW]

I think both Ortiz and Phillips easily slot into the "top 10 organizational prospect" tier which I have as holding 11.45 million dollars in prospect surplus value. So a trade tonight for Ortiz and Phillips would have 22.9 million in surplus heading to Baltimore, and with 2/3's of July still left the Brewers would be getting approximately 17.36 million dollars in surplus value with Machado. Even with the 5.5 million dollar advantage to the Orioles, I still think this is within the limit of calling it an "even enough" swap. But what the numbers do tell me is that an offer of Ortiz and Phillips should be the top offer the Brewers make, and once it gets past the All-Star break the Brewers should pull one of those two guys out of the offer and insert a lower rated prospect. Getting beyond that, and it's overpaying for a rental IMO.

 

Well stated. Well calculated. I also agree about Ortiz and Phillips being the top offer.

 

I do have one question that has been under the radar in this thread IMO. What’s the surplus value of the compensation pick that the O’s would receive? Even though we don’t get it for ourselves, we would be taking it away from the O’s.

[DHonks]

Am I the only one who thinks Arcia alone is way too much to give for 2 months of Machado? This would be the definition of selling low.

 

I agree with you. Way too early to give up on the kid. He was really valuable last year. Not really a surplus position either. I'd be OK giving up outfielders and non-Burnes pitching.

 

I definitely wouldn’t give up Arcia. He’s untouchable. But I need to note that fizz made a common mistake that I just don’t understand. Why do you think trading someone means we are giving up on them??? You trade value for value. The Mets may have given up on Harvey’s antics, but the brewers would not be giving up on Arcia, Santana, Broxton, or any other player they trade

[mlloyd10]

Machado with a 2 hr game...

[502 to Right]

I do not want Manny Machado. The Brewers do not have the luxury of giving away top prospects for rentals.

[brewmann04]

i have to agree 502 especially young controlable arms

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

I do not want Manny Machado. The Brewers do not have the luxury of giving away top prospects for rentals.

 

The Brewers wouldn't be "giving away" anything. They'd be trading prospects to acquire one of the top bats in the game. In a season where they may very well be one steady bat away from being a World Series contender.

[pacopete4]

Burnes is a hard no. I’ll gladly keep that young controlled arm.

[JosephC]

I do have one question that has been under the radar in this thread IMO. What’s the surplus value of the compensation pick that the O’s would receive? Even though we don’t get it for ourselves, we would be taking it away from the O’s.

 

The Brewers comparable is Lutz. Looking at a draft pick that in most drafts would fall in the 31-36 area. Unless there is some exceptional talent that unexpectedly drops, the 31-36 players won't be highly regarded enough to land in the top 100. Next group is "top 10 organizational prospect," so since there are 30 teams that would equate to a top 300 prospect. Probably pretty safe to say that almost all players picked in that 31-36 region would fall in that group. I have the "top 10 organizational prospect" group valued at 11.45 million, same as Brett Phillips or Luis Ortiz now that they've fallen out of top 100 consideration (IMO). However, I'd probably upgrade the compensatory pick just slightly because it's not simply about drafting a player like Lutz, but also gives the team that additional money from that draft spot to add a bit of flexibility to what they could do. Personally, I'd probably put the value of the compensatory pick at about 13 million (and admittedly am pulling the approximate 1.55 million difference out of my rear end, but I think that's fair). If I'm the Orioles and, by my numbers, if the offers fell short of 13 million in prospect surplus value then I'd just keep Machado the rest of the year and take the draft pick.

[Jenkins5]

If we can trade Ortiz over Woodruff I’m happy with that. Talented but as I have complained about since we talked about drafting him & got him in trade.... I don’t trust his weight & conditioning. They say they are fine with all the weight & some guys are just bigger but he hasn’t stay overly healthy yet in career. Woodruff I feel is less of a duribility issue moving forward. When healthy, he has great stuff & is promising but just feel less risk with Woodruff. If we could keep all 5 of Brown, Ortiz, Woodruff, Burnes, and Peralta.... amazing! But that simply isn’t realistic. The gap between all 5 doesn’t see too far apart. Peralta is most electric. Burnes is pure best pitcher with ability to command 4 pitches. Woodruff has most velocity. Ortiz, Brown on heels. Medeiros also pushing into those talks.

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

Burnes is a hard no. I’ll gladly keep that young controlled arm.

 

I'm with you. No way should they trade Burnes for Machado. I don't want to trade Woodruff in a package for Machado either. I like Ortiz, but I'd be ok with that, just because he is further down the young starting pitching pecking order.

 

Having so much young starting pitching depth is an odd feeling. I like it.