Manny Machado (Part 1)

[paul253]

Greinke as a rental brought back Jean Segura and two hard throwing AA pitchers with major control issues. Are you trying to suggest that Greinke was perceived as a #3 when we traded him to the Angels

 

That’s one example, and it’s not even as bad as you’re making it out to be. Segura was a top 60 prospect and I saw Hellweg as high as the Angels #6 prospect. In other half season rentals, the Indians got two highly rated prospects from us in Laporta (Brewers #1) and Brantley (who they picked over Cain and Lucroy) plus two others. And the Yankees got Torres, who was a top 30 in all of baseball prospect, plus others for a half season of Chapman.

 

It depends on how the Orioles view Arica but I think assuming Supak and Ponce are the types of pitchers the Orioles would settle for is severely underrating Machado’s value. As I said, he’s putting up MVP numbers. They aren’t accepting a deal for a struggling shortstop with severe offensive question marks and two low ceiling starting pitching prospects who aren’t even organizational top 10 prospects in a weak system.

[3and2Fastball]

Arcia, Burnes, Peralta might get it done. I would not be OK with that.

 

Knowing the Orioles they'd probably ask for Hader & Burnes. And then they start Hader and leave him in games too long, wear out his arm to the tune of a 3.85 ERA, and talk poorly about him in the local Baltimore media. What a poorly run franchise.

 

But, yeah, it's the Orioles, the asking price will be steep.

[Bnowell4evr]

Greinke as a rental brought back Jean Segura and two hard throwing AA pitchers with major control issues. Are you trying to suggest that Greinke was perceived as a #3 when we traded him to the Angels

 

That’s one example, and it’s not even as bad as you’re making it out to be. Segura was a top 60 prospect and I saw Hellweg as high as the Angels #6 prospect. In other half season rentals, the Indians got two highly rated prospects from us in Laporta (Brewers #1) and Brantley (who they picked over Cain and Lucroy) plus two others. And the Yankees got Torres, who was a top 30 in all of baseball prospect, plus others for a half season of Chapman.

 

It depends on how the Orioles view Arica but I think assuming Supak and Ponce are the types of pitchers the Orioles would settle for is severely underrating Machado’s value. As I said, he’s putting up MVP numbers. They aren’t accepting a deal for a struggling shortstop with severe offensive question marks and two low ceiling starting pitching prospects who aren’t even organizational top 10 prospects in a weak system.

 

The CC Sabathia trade is not a comparable deal because that was still when you could get comp picks when trading for a rental. Since CC was a type A free agent it allowed the Brewers to receive 2 high draft picks along with 2 months + of CC Sabathia for LaPorta, Brantley and throw ins.

 

Since they removed the comp picks for players traded in season, it has drastically changed what teams could receive in return. That's why I don't look any further back than 2012 when they made that change.

 

- Yu Darvish was traded for 2B/OF Willie Calhoun (B), RHP AJ Alexy © and SS Brendan Davis ©

- JD Martinez for IF Dawel Lugo (B-), SS Sergio Alcantara © and Jose King (UR)

- Zack Greinke for SS Jean Segura (B Prospect), Hellweg was a (B- prospect) and Pena (C+ prospect) according to Sickels prospect rankings at the time.

 

For comparison you're talking about a trade of Woodruff (B), Dubon (B-) + 1 of Jon Perrin, Phil Bickford, Zack Brown, Adrian Houser, Jorge Lopez or Trey Supak (C+).

 

The Aroldis Chapman deal is the max a team can expect for a rental and that included 1 elite prospect, 1 former highly regarded prospect with some warts, 1 ML Ready player to fill a void and then a lottery ticket.

 

Torres was a B+, McKinney was a B, Warren had an ERA over 5 when he was traded and Crawford has never been anything of significance.

 

The trade would hurt but it's nothing like giving up 4 of our top 10 prospects like others have suggested in this thread.

[pacopete4]

I would only trade for Machado if we could afford to lock him up in a deal. Which we can’t. So unfortunately, pass.

[MrTPlush]

I’d trade for him. If the bullpen continues to be lights out, Jimmy Nelson returns without missing a beat, Anderson returns to dominant form, and Chacin also continues to pitch to a mid rotation level.

 

Then maybe I could see an all-in type trade. We would then have a solid World Series contender. Three really good starters (maybe a fourth one pitching well) with this bullpen could win a lot of games.

 

Right now we are riding a bullpen that is not even remotely close to sustainable in my opinion. Once/If that reverts to a normal level this team screams .500.

[reillymcshane]

Personally, I think a Yelich-type return is really, really high - and would never pay it. Yelich got a top 20, a top 50 and a borderline 100 guy. That's a heck of a haul. And I don't think anyone will pay that for half a season of Machado - but you never know since Machado is putting up MVP-type numbers at a key defensive position, so he is a unique.

 

But you're getting him for only a half a season. Hitters have - traditionally - fetched less at the deadline than pitchers (such as Chapman and Miller). JD Martinez - certainly a lesser player than Machado - but still a 1.000+ OPS guy - was had for some middling prospects last year.

 

A lot just comes down to who needs him for 2018 only, who has something to offer Baltimore that they want, and who can - financially - add Machado to their roster. Some team, like SF and LA, are tight up against the luxury tax and are reluctant to go over it.

 

I just don't see a ton of teams in on such a move - and thus the price tag not be so outrageous. A lot of people mention Chicago, which I think makes sense. But I think St. Louis could make such a move as well.

 

For Milwaukee, I think Machado would be awesome. But I'd make my assessment on a fair deal, make the offer, and move on. No point in dragging anything out, or bidding against yourself, or worrying about what other teams will do. Just worry about what you can control - and move on if nothing happens.

[Eye Black]

I would only trade for Machado if we could afford to lock him up in a deal. Which we can’t. So unfortunately, pass.

Curious what others think Machado will sign for this off-season? My guess would be something like 9 or 10 years in the $275-$300 million range.

[splitterpfj]

Josh Hader is not available for Manny Machado, or any other rental - the suggestion of a deal like that is both humorous and insulting.

 

If the Brewers decide to go for Machado, I would have to think Arcia is in the deal, and if you're going to win a bidding war for one of the best players in baseball, the Brewers don't have a minor league player who can be off the table.

 

If I'm Baltimore, I want Arcia, and the best two pitching prospects I can get from Milwaukee. I'll guess they would see Burnes as the best of the bunch, so I'll put him in, then you can debate who the other one is. I could picture a 4th player being added, but it wouldn't be a prospect currently high on anyone's list.

 

To make a move like that, the Brewers would have to truly believe they can win this year's World Series. Honestly, I don't see David Stearns making a bet like that.

 

I could picture another Yelich-type move, one with literally no one in the Brewers' system truly off-limits, but I would think that would bring back a starting pitcher with years of control, not a stud infielder who walks in November.

[pacopete4]

I would only trade for Machado if we could afford to lock him up in a deal. Which we can’t. So unfortunately, pass.

Curious what others think Machado will sign for this off-season? My guess would be something like 9 or 10 years in the $275-$300 million range.

 

You’re probably looking more towards $325-$375 million. Harper may push close to $400 million even though I think Machado is more valuable. As nice as it would be to have a Machado, this price just isn’t realistic for a market like Milwaukee.

 

I’ll add a deal though:

 

Orioles get: Arcia, Braun (all salary- $50M), Burnes, and Ortiz.

Brewers get: Machado with the condition that he signs a 9-year/$333M extension.

[brewmann04]

we will never be able to sign Manny long term so its not worth the price

[young guns]

No way Braun approves that trade.

[pacopete4]

Nope. Braun probably doesn’t approve any trade.

[reillymcshane]

I would only trade for Machado if we could afford to lock him up in a deal. Which we can’t. So unfortunately, pass.

Curious what others think Machado will sign for this off-season? My guess would be something like 9 or 10 years in the $275-$300 million range.

This is what I'm thinking. But in reality, that means it will probably go higher. Especially if he keeps playing like he is - which is awesome. 26 year old guy's like him don't hit the market often.

[paul253]

The CC Sabathia trade is not a comparable deal because that was still when you could get comp picks when trading for a rental. Since CC was a type A free agent it allowed the Brewers to receive 2 high draft picks along with 2 months + of CC Sabathia for LaPorta, Brantley and throw ins.

 

We can go back and forth forever but the point is Baltimore isn’t trading Machado for a return that includes Ponce and Supak type pitchers, not unles there is a heck of a lot more along with it.

[adambr2]

Personally, I think a Yelich-type return is really, really high - and would never pay it. Yelich got a top 20, a top 50 and a borderline 100 guy. That's a heck of a haul. And I don't think anyone will pay that for half a season of Machado - but you never know since Machado is putting up MVP-type numbers at a key defensive position, so he is a unique.

 

But you're getting him for only a half a season. Hitters have - traditionally - fetched less at the deadline than pitchers (such as Chapman and Miller). JD Martinez - certainly a lesser player than Machado - but still a 1.000+ OPS guy - was had for some middling prospects last year.

 

A lot just comes down to who needs him for 2018 only, who has something to offer Baltimore that they want, and who can - financially - add Machado to their roster. Some team, like SF and LA, are tight up against the luxury tax and are reluctant to go over it.

 

I just don't see a ton of teams in on such a move - and thus the price tag not be so outrageous. A lot of people mention Chicago, which I think makes sense. But I think St. Louis could make such a move as well.

 

For Milwaukee, I think Machado would be awesome. But I'd make my assessment on a fair deal, make the offer, and move on. No point in dragging anything out, or bidding against yourself, or worrying about what other teams will do. Just worry about what you can control - and move on if nothing happens.

 

Pretty much the way I feel. If you feel that Machado can put you in the World Series and you're comfortable offering something like Woodruff + Erceg + Phillips + Supak, go ahead and make the offer and see what happens. If nothing, so be it, just move on and don't get involved in a bidding war.

[JohnBriggs12]

Considering that all it took Arizona one decent prospect and two very young lottery tickets to rent J. D. Martinez last year, I think the price for Machado isn't as high as some are speculating. Look at all the speculation about the Cubs and Machado. The Cubs have virtually no pitching prospects anywhere near the major leagues and that's the O's biggest need. So most are suggesting they'd part with Russell and maybe some 19 year old arm in rookie ball. I'd be willing to part with Arcia and Woodruff and worry about the SS position beyond 2018 while I'm nursing my World Series hangover.

[brewcrewdue80]

Surprised a comp hadnt been made off of Yoenis Cespedes for a return. Thats where I'd look with the 2nd piece being a grade higher.

 

I had looked this up earlier today, seen Michael Fulmer was headliner the last trade. On phone posting now, so I dont have the rest of that deal.

[sveumrules]

I don't think Machado will bring a Yelich like return just because there is such a difference in team control. Five years of Yelich at below market prices has way more value than 2-3 months of Machado, even if he maintains the ridiculous numbers he has posted to start the season.

 

I would look to headline with Maverick as an MLB ready OF you can plug in for the next six years. Maybe someone like Brown or Ortiz as the second piece & then a low level lottery ticket or a PTBNL a la the CC deal. Anything higher than that I would probably pass & hope Arcia figures it out at the plate as the season progresses.

 

Interesting to think that Machado & Harper will probably come in around 750 million bucks this offseason. They both debuted in 2012 & since that time come in at 11th (Harper, 28.5) & 14th (Machado, 26.5) on the FanGraphs WAR leaderboard. Mike Trout tops the leaderboard at 57.5 so he has been worth more than both of them combined.

[wallus]

If you are going to give up major prospects, do it for Realmuto.

[adambr2]

If you are going to give up major prospects, do it for Realmuto.

 

I don't want to get too far off course but I can see the merit in this. Realmuto is really great and plays a position of need. Importantly, he's not a rental.

 

Unfortunately he will be quite pricey, considerably more than Machado IMO.

 

There is absolutely no way Realmuto comes here without a headliner of Hiura or Burnes. You'd do very well to only give up one and not both.

[wallus]

Since Baltimore never likes to truly rebuild, I would do Machado for Arcia, Phillips and T. Williams. This would help them replace Machado, Adam Jones and Britton once they get traded. I am guessing that wouldn't be enough but he is a rental unfortunately...

[paul253]

Since Baltimore never likes to truly rebuild, I would do Machado for Arcia, Phillips and T. Williams

 

I’d substitute either Woodruff, Ortiz or Peralta for Williams because I dont think teams generally care about replacing relievers but it seems about right as far as what I’d offer. It’s a real shame about Dubon as he’d be the obvious choice to replace Arcia next season.

[3and2Fastball]

Zero guarantee that Machado continues anywhere near his offensive production that he has put up so far this year. He's never hit like this before. While it is possible, it isn't likely. He probably is the .280/.330/.480 with 30 HR's guy he's always been before. And while that is a serious upgrade over Arcia's production, you have to be careful of breaking the bank for that.

 

Also, if he finishes the season close to his career numbers, how horrible of a sustained slump will he have in the next several months to get there?

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml

[Fear The Chorizo]

Zero guarantee that Machado continues anywhere near his offensive production that he has put up so far this year. He's never hit like this before.

 

The same can be said of a whole lot of hitters during their free agent year - it would be just as foolish to plan on Machado cratering during the 2nd half of the year to balance his production back to pre-2018 levels than it would be to expect him to improve on what are MVP-level offensive numbers so far this year. Extremely talented players tend to find a few otherwordly seasons of production during their careers that outpace even their career averages. If Machado is still raking a few weeks from now and healthy, the Brewers' reasoning for not going after him via trade better not be "because career stats projected Machado to tank"....the asking price will probably be pretty high since he's essentially a SS version of CC Sabathia 2008 - a 2-3 month rental that could flat-out carry a team to the postseason if he's healthy and having a good year for his standards.

[PeaveyFury]

Even at his pre-2018 numbers, he's been a 7-ish WAR player twice before. Even if you assume that Arcia rebounds SOMEWHAT to his 2017 production, that's still a 4-5 win upgrade (2-3 over a half season). That's a massive upgrade for a team that would presumably be in a playoff race at the time of acquisition...