Manny Machado (Part 1)

[pacopete4]

Very interesting that Zack Brown was scratched and makes it pretty clear that’s why Woodruff isn’t throwing either. A package of Woodruff, Brown, Phillips, and maybe 1-2 more pieces like Nottingham and Erceg to get the deal done if Britton is involved? 5 minor leaguers for 2 too oevel MLB players is reasonable especially if we are able to avoid trading Burnes, Peralta and Hiura. Cubs fans will be pissed if we keep our top 3 prospects cause that’s all I see them saying regarding the Brewers and the Machado rumors. I would hate to see Phillips and Brown traded though but if it’s for Machado I’m all for it. Phillips is blocked anyways and I really hope he catches on somewhere if he can’t here.

 

That’s way to much. Way, way too much for two guys that won’t be Brewers a season from now.

 

I disagree, cause the Orioles would be getting quantity over quality

 

You might be giving up your starting catcher for the next five seasons alone not to mention two high quality arms.

[fondybrewfan]

I would feel so much better about this if this were a 2019 contract instead of 2018. Does Machado really give us enough to beat the Cubs in a 7 game series this year? How long can Peralta, Guerra, and Chacin really keep pitching like this? To bad you couldn't get Machado to agree to a 1 year $25-$30 extension to get a little bit more out of the guy.

 

Getting Machado alone I don't know if that is enough unless the price is cheaper than expected, if you get Machado you also need to get some pitching because I just don't know how long are unsung guys can keep this up. I am loving it don't get me wrong but it makes me nervous that these guys can't keep pitching like this for another 3-4 months.

 

Speaking of the O's, holy crap has Alex Cobb been a trainwreck.

[bill hAll Star]

How long can Peralta, Guerra, and Chacin really keep pitching like this?

 

If all you ask of them is 5 innings if they aren't on their game or we aren't out to an 8-1 lead, I think they can probably keep it up. They're only facing the order twice unless we have a reason to keep them going.

[tmwiese55]

I can't get over how poor the Orioles asset management is. And I'm not just Captain Hindsight here.

 

Compound not cashing out their guys a year or two back like htey could/should have along with dumping like 150 mil on Chris Davis and then 60 mil more on Cobb. You just shake your head and wonder what these guys are thinking.

[Humans Need Water]

Very interesting that Zack Brown was scratched and makes it pretty clear that’s why Woodruff isn’t throwing either. A package of Woodruff, Brown, Phillips, and maybe 1-2 more pieces like Nottingham and Erceg to get the deal done if Britton is involved? 5 minor leaguers for 2 too oevel MLB players is reasonable especially if we are able to avoid trading Burnes, Peralta and Hiura. Cubs fans will be pissed if we keep our top 3 prospects cause that’s all I see them saying regarding the Brewers and the Machado rumors. I would hate to see Phillips and Brown traded though but if it’s for Machado I’m all for it. Phillips is blocked anyways and I really hope he catches on somewhere if he can’t here.

 

That’s way to much. Way, way too much for two guys that won’t be Brewers a season from now.

 

I disagree, cause the Orioles would be getting quantity over quality

Why can't they be getting both quantity and quality in that package?

[Ron Robinsons Beard]

 

I disagree, cause the Orioles would be getting quantity over quality

 

You might be giving up your starting catcher for the next five seasons alone not to mention two high quality arms.

 

Didn't you know that besides Hiura, Burnes and Peralta, who can all walk on water, move mountains and fly faster than a speeding bullet, every single other one of our prospects is crap?

 

Maybe that's a little much, but you get the idea. Sheesh, if Woodruf, Brown and Phillips, three very highly regarded, very quality prospects in their own right, aren't enough to get Machado, you walk away. Nottingham and Erceg are two of the team's Top 10 prospects. They aren't throw ins! There is absolutely no way the Orioles are going to get 5 of the team's top 10 prospects!

[homer]

I can't get over how poor the Orioles' asset management is. And I'm not just Captain Hindsight here.

 

You can thank them for trading Josh Hader to the Astros

[brewerfan82]

Getting Machado alone I don't know if that is enough unless the price is cheaper than expected, if you get Machado you also need to get some pitching because I just don't know how long are unsung guys can keep this up. I am loving it don't get me wrong but it makes me nervous that these guys can't keep pitching like this for another 3-4 months.

I think this is dead on and why you only do Machado if it doesn't involve Peralta or Burnes (or Hiura), because you're going to need at least one of those pitchers (if not both, plus a ton more) to get a controllable top of the rotation starter as well. I can stomach losing the high end prospect pitching depth we have if it gets us controllable MLB pitching talent to go along with our current controllable, already pretty decent rotation pieces. Hiura I don't want to lose in any deal as he fills such a needed hole in the organization right now.

[OnaBadger58]

How long can Peralta, Guerra, and Chacin really keep pitching like this?

 

If all you ask of them is 5 innings if they aren't on their game or we aren't out to an 8-1 lead, I think they can probably keep it up. They're only facing the order twice unless we have a reason to keep them going.

 

Exactly my thoughts. Our bullpen is good enough to go 4-5 innings a game (especially in the playoffs). I still think Houser needs to be in the Majors full time, and who knows what (if he's around) Burnes brings to the table. If the starting rotation can go 5 innings and give up 0-2 runs, this team is sitting pretty.

[StearnsFTW]

Man, I'm going to be unhappy if the give up Brown in addition to Woodruff. And Phillips as well?

 

No way from me.

 

I'm fine with Woodruff and a couple fliers, but that's it for me. And I understand that probably won't get it done.

 

Edit: Also, they can keep Zach Britton. Yuck.

[tmwiese55]

IDK to me Phillips is the perfect guy to start with, he's very expendable for MKE. Start with that and go from there, if it's him and one of Burnes/Ortiz/Woodruff/Brown plus a lower level flier type I think you do it. I think I walk away if it's two of the good P prospects. We just have to hold onto as much pitching depth and prospects as we possibly can as a small market team.

[homer]

Again, the D-Backs only gave up a middling prospect and some low level guys to get JD Martinez for a few months. Orioles have zero leverage here.

[hyerbro1]

What trades in recent history are similar to trading Machado? I have tried to look at recent years and can't find much.

 

Most trades that netted a big haul of prospects were for players that were not rentals or SP. The two best comparisons I can think of are JD Martinez - 2017 and Yoenis Cespedes - 2015. Neither deal had a prospect as good as Hiura or Burnes.

 

I saw one article that suggested the Jason Heyward to St. Louis deal as a comparison, but that was for a full year.

 

Edited to spell Hiura correctly.

[StearnsFTW]

How long can Peralta, Guerra, and Chacin really keep pitching like this?

 

If all you ask of them is 5 innings if they aren't on their game or we aren't out to an 8-1 lead, I think they can probably keep it up. They're only facing the order twice unless we have a reason to keep them going.

 

Exactly my thoughts. Our bullpen is good enough to go 4-5 innings a game (especially in the playoffs). I still think Houser needs to be in the Majors full time, and who knows what (if he's around) Burnes brings to the table. If the starting rotation can go 5 innings and give up 0-2 runs, this team is sitting pretty.

 

Yep. If Houser and Burnes can effectively replace Barnes, yowza.

 

A pen of Knebel, Hader, JJ, Jennings, Williams, Houser & Burnes could be scary good.

 

Edit: Forgot about a healthy Albers. Even better.

[IntentionalHBP]

With Orioles scouts in attendance for the Biloxi game, maybe the idea is to somewhat hide Brown. This is probably not the reasoning to the scratch start but it’s a possibility.

[mattyo]

What trades in recent history are similar to trading Machado? I have tried to look at recent years and can't find much.

 

Most trades that netted a big haul of prospects were for players that were not rentals or SP. The two best comparisons I can think of are JD Martinez - 2017 and Yoenis Cespedes - 2015. Neither deal had a prospect as good as Huira or Burnes.

 

I saw one article that suggested the Jason Heyward to St. Louis deal as a comparison, but that was for a full year.

 

I don't think anyone here is okay with trading Hiura/Burnes/Peralta for Machado. Almost all talk has been about Woodruff headlining.

[YelichPosse]

With Orioles scouts in attendance for the Biloxi game, maybe the idea is to somewhat hide Brown. This is probably not the reasoning to the scratch start but it’s a possibility.

 

Has anyone "in the know" heard "why" Brown was scratched today.... I'm sure clubspeak will be limiting innings. But its awfully strange they do these scratches within hours of these guy's starts.....

[MrTPlush]

With Orioles scouts in attendance for the Biloxi game, maybe the idea is to somewhat hide Brown. This is probably not the reasoning to the scratch start but it’s a possibility.

 

Hide Brown? So they don’t see how good he is?

 

You know how you hide Brown. “No”

[KeithStone53151]

Again, the D-Backs only gave up a middling prospect and some low level guys to get JD Martinez for a few months. Orioles have zero leverage here.

 

Right, it's safe to assume the Orioles have received multiple offers that are universally considered to be more valuable than a comp pick. Their only leverage is pitting teams against each other to try and maximize return. But all teams involved know that they have to trade him.

[Jenkins5]

Still find it funny some of the packages I see. If this was this time last year, some of the packages would be closer but man.... people out there really overvalue the rental markets. Teams just don’t buy rentals in the way they use to. Bad business.

 

The Woodruff, Phillips, Brown, Erceg, Nottingham for Machado & Britton?! That seems like it’s coming straight from an Orioles fan fantasy day dream! How awful of an investment is that? Our bullpen is strong & doesn’t need Britton. Mortgage 5 very good mlb prospects for 2 1/2 months?! Stearns would be a laughing stock. He’s not a fool. You trade those 5 in a package, you better be getting a controllable Ace...

[MrTPlush]

We don’t “need Britton”, but adding him would still be huge for this team assuming he can get back to his former self. I don’t know why having a really good bullpen makes adding to that pen a joke. Bullpens are 7-8 guys deep. Even we constantly have a trash guy sitting out there. For a team that is obviously trying to go bullpen heavy (Burnes moved to pen/starters pulled early) this makes a lot of sense.

 

I don’t personally put a lot of value on him, but I wouldn’t mind if we got him for a flier or two.

[danzig6767]

Keep this in mind if we got Machado to play at shortstop

 

https://www.theringer.com/mlb/2018/7/5/17536062/baltimore-orioles-worst-defense-manny-machado-adam-jones

 

The other chief offender is the Orioles’ best player, Manny Machado, who while enjoying his best-ever season at the plate is also en route to the worst defensive season on record. Not just his own worst defensive season—the worst for any player, at any position (positional adjustments aside). Machado has already reached negative-20 DRS this year—that’s the second-worst total at any position in 2018, on a list that also includes Jones and Mancini in the bottom five—and is thus on pace to hit nearly negative-40 for the season. Since 2002, the worst single-season DRS total is negative-33, for Matt Kemp in 2010; only six players have gone even 30 runs under.

 

At his current pace, Machado will likely finish the season providing six-plus wins of offensive value while taking away two-plus wins on defense. The list of previous players who completed that dual feat includes notoriously bat-rich, glove-poor shortstops Hanley Ramírez and Michael Young and then a coterie of corner sluggers largely uninterested in the demands of defense. Machado might think he’s regular-season LeBron James now (in more ways than one).

 

Machado moved from third base to shortstop this year, but he didn’t bring his range with him. As Mark Simon from Sports Info Solutions, the parent company that oversees DRS, wrote last month, “Most shortstops who are bad at fielding the ball in one area are average or above at fielding balls in the other direction. But Machado is far below average in both,” routinely missing balls to both his left and right.

 

He clearly can rake, but he'd be really bad defensively. I'd like hm more if he had a need at thirdbase instead of shortstop.

[pacopete4]

Thank you for posting that Danzig. Like I mentioned earlier, the boards lost their minds when Miller was traded to get some reps at SS. Well here’s Machado and he’s worse defensively but here’s our farm. Makes no sense to me.

[Jenkins5]

Crazy the difference. He is a gold glove 3B with incredible range there. Slide back to his original home at SS & all of that is gone.

 

I’d also like to point out as a whole the O’s defense is absolutely brutal. Mix in the frustrations of being worse team in baseball, that can negatively impact players. Maybe on better team, it cleans up a little.

 

He had a career 10.0 defensive WAR good for 22 amongst active players & is by far youngest of those 22. The rest are 28 or over... mostly 30 year old + vets

[ThisIsMyCrew]

[sarcasm]Orioles are holding out for Braun.[/sarcasm]